I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[BADOLBILZ]

36 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Okay sure, but it's accurate enough for our purposes here.  Feel free to point out any obvious outlier games from the top 10 teams that would impact rankings here.

 

The bottom line is that the passing game fell off significantly under Brady.

 

It was Allen's worst such stretch since 2019.

 

The Dallas game was what it was.........a frustrating statistical game for Allen despite the running game dominating.  When you are killing a team like that on the ground you would expect a high completion % or ypa.   But no.

 

But even if you remove that Dallas game from the 7 that Brady OC'd in the regular season..........it was still a bad stretch.

 

Just a 62% completion.

 

9 TD's to 7 interceptions is horrendous.    That 6 game output projects to an anemic 26 TD to 20 INT.

 

You are focused on manipulating the data to manufacture a "top 10" result (passing yards per game) when they simply weren't a top 10 passing team under Brady.

  

[Mikey152]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

What's the number one predictor of targets in your view?

 

 

Because he literally told the Commanders he didn't want the job.

Commanders had 636 pass attempts. Niners had 491. Everyone else was in between. Most teams had normal distributions with the "#1" getting 20-30% of the targets, then a few guys with 10-20%, then a bunch of stragglers with less than 10%. There are a few teams where there were two "#1s" and a thinner middle, and a few teams with no real #1 and more in the middle, but usually it was a normal distribution.

 

So...either somebody on the Bills will see a lot more targets, or everyone will see a moderate increase. But what definitely WONT happen is that nobody will get more targets. We aren't throwing 300 times.

Edited July 18 by Mikey152

[HappyDays]

22 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

So...either somebody on the Bills will see a lot more targets, or everyone will see a moderate increase.

 

I predict that no WR on the Bills will get over 100 targets (Kincaid I predict will get right around 100 targets). ARSB has gotten 119, 146, and 164 targets in each year of his career. Respectfully you using him as a comparison was just plain dumb. Shakir and Samuel are not as good as him, I'm sorry they just aren't. There is no magic solution wherein we just funnel one of them 150 targets and watch them collect 1,500 yards like ARSB had last year. Players EARN that kind of target share by consistently getting open and/or showing they can consistently win contested catches.

 

I expect our passing attempts overall to be lower than usual this year. I'll predict 515 attempts which is about 4 less attempts per game than recent years. I'm with @BADOLBILZ that we will probably have a more ball control offense that runs the ball more and intentionally prolongs drives. I expect we will have to play this style of offense for the same reason we did against the Chiefs in the divisional round - it's what our caliber of pass catchers will necessitate.

 

Your whole argument is just bad statistics. You're assuming an equal number of pass attempts. You're assuming everyone's yards per target will scale up perfectly with increased targets. Overall you're assuming every single best case scenario, and when called out on this your response is that we're bad fans because we're not blindly optimistic. This response by the way tells on itself - you're admitting you don't actually believe any of the things you're saying, it's apparently just part of "being a fan" for you.

 

Edited July 18 by HappyDays

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't see that on his tape personally. And I watched a ton of Keon film. 

 

EDIT: he is better than Gabe was coming out off the line but Gabe did improve his release package in the league. He was never great at it but he was definitely better years 3 and 4 than years 1 and 2.

 

Agreed it was better in years 3 and 4, that is assumed with any player who has any success in the NFL.  But...Keep in mind, the comparison is where they each are in respect as rookies, not after Gabe had 3-4 years of NFL coaching vs Keon as a rookie. 

[Mikey152]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I predict that no WR on the Bills will get over 100 targets (Kincaid I predict will get right around 100 targets). ARSB has gotten 119, 146, and 164 targets in each year of his career. Respectfully you using him as a comparison was just plain dumb. Shakir and Samuel are not as good as him, I'm sorry they just aren't. There is no magic solution wherein we just funnel one of them 150 targets and watch them collect 1,500 yards like ARSB had last year. Players EARN that kind of target share by consistently getting open and/or showing they can consistently win contested catches.

 

I expect our passing attempts overall to be lower than usual this year. I'll predict 515 attempts which is about 4 less attempts per game than recent years. I'm with @BADOLBILZ that we will probably have a more ball control offense that runs the ball more and intentionally prolongs drives. I expect we will have to play this style of offense for the same reason we did against the Chiefs in the divisional round - it's what our caliber of pass catchers will necessitate.

 

Your whole argument is just bad statistics. You're assuming an equal number of pass attempts. You're assuming everyone's yards per target will scale up perfectly with increased targets. Overall you're assuming every single best case scenario and when called out on this, your response is that we're bad fans because we're not blindly optimistic. This response by the way tells on itself - you're admitting you don't actually believe any of the things you're saying, it's apparently just part of "being a fan."

 

Bad math?  

 

You might want to check yours...or did you even do it?

 

Even if they only pass 515 times and Kincaid gets 100 targets, that is still 415 more targets. Even if we go with 50 for cook and 50 for Knox to further suppress WR, you STILL have 315 targets left. If we take another 100 targets for backups, that's 215 targets for the top 3 receivers. Maybe it is 100-65-50 or 72-72-71, but either way, That's definitely more targets than last season for at least two of them (Samuel had 92 last year).

 

And that is all pretty conservative...assuming nobody steps up and we spread the ball quite a bit. Based on what most teams in the NFL do, this is unlikely to occur but we will see. Either way, who really cares? 

 

But please, enlighten me...what, aside from his stats, makes St Brown so awesome? And to be clear, no one guy has to be St Brown for us to play like the Lions, because 2-4 for the lions was not very good. We may have a slightly different distribution and be able to achieve similar results due to our depth.

Edited July 18 by Mikey152

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

But please, enlighten me...what, aside from his stats, makes St Brown so awesome?

 

You're right. He got a record breaking contract because of his target share. No other reason. If Shakir was in that offense he'd be a $100 million man right now. Contracts in the NFL mean basically nothing and it's all luck of the draw.

[Rampant Buffalo]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Equally though, 2020 apart, the offense has been considerably more healthy in the post season than the defense. 

 

Not make excuses for either side. But as I say every time this comes up the reality for why we have failed is a lot more multi-faceted than is sometimes presented.

 

 

Postseason defensive collapses

Chiefs collapse #1. One stop all game, Tre White healthy.

Chiefs collapse #2. Two stops all game, Tre White didn't play.

Bengals collapse #1. Two stops all game. Von Miller didn't play. Tre White played but wasn't fully back to his pre-injury self.

Chiefs collapse #3. Two stops all game. Numerous injuries to the defense.

 

I personally believe that Chiefs defensive collapse #3 was due primarily to injury. I also believe that Chiefs defensive collapses 1 and 2, as well as Bengals defensive collapse #1, were due primarily to the McDermott/Frazier soft zone/prevent defense.

[Mikey152]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You're right. He got a record breaking contract because of his target share. No other reason. If Shakir was in that offense he'd be a $100 million man right now. Contracts in the NFL mean basically nothing and it's all luck of the draw.

Seriously? A contract? That's your response? 

 

Im curious...do you think Puka Nicua is better than Tee Higgins and Jaylen Waddle?

 

 

Edited July 18 by Mikey152

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I suppose this is what I get for telling you to distill your takes down. 

 

You went from "look at all the receiving weapons who have played with Josh Allen"..........(which is like 50 players).......down to........"no, wait just look at these 3.   And only count one season for 2 of those guys." 

 

Haha, come on, that is not even remotely close to what I said 😂.  But hey, no surprise you are trying to change it so you can try and spin away from this silly narrative you are on.

 

I even gave you the benefit of the doubt on Clay...but turns out he too only played in Allen's rookie year where we already established Allen didn't play a full season.  So you are back to zero players that failed to reach a career best season starting with Allen when injuries were not in play.  

 

 

 

Edited July 18 by Alphadawg7

[Billl]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Every discussion of Shakir's targets and yards reminds me of this:

 

I never understood why Mike Vrabel didn’t get more targets.  He had 10 TDs on 14 career targets.  He’s easily the GOAT WR.  If they’d have simply thrown him the ball 140 times a season, he’d have 1,400 career TDs which would shatter Jerry Rice’s record of 197.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Agreed it was better in years 3 and 4, that is assumed with any player who has any success in the NFL.  But...Keep in mind, the comparison is where they each are in respect as rookies, not after Gabe had 3-4 years of NFL coaching vs Keon as a rookie. 

But that’s NOT the comparison.  Nobody is talking about what the Bills offense will do in 2027 when Keon’s in his 4th season.  The conversation revolves around what the WRs will produce in 2024 versus what they produced in 2023.  What Coleman produces after he’s had 3-4 years in the league is immaterial.

[Beck Water]

On 7/17/2024 at 6:12 PM, NewEra said:

lol, I can’t take credit for that one.  Can’t recall the originator 

 

Dang then I had to look it up.

 

@NoHuddleKelly12 coined it

 

 

 

52 minutes ago, Billl said:

I never understood why Mike Vrabel didn’t get more targets.  He had 10 TDs on 14 career targets.  He’s easily the GOAT WR.  If they’d have simply thrown him the ball 140 times a season, he’d have 1,400 career TDs which would shatter Jerry Rice’s record of 197.

 

I never understood why Edwards-Helaire didn't get more touches last season vs Pacheco.  Edwards-Helaire was a 1st round pick and KC just rocks at drafting.

Edited July 19 by Beck Water

[Billl]

34 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

I never understood why Edwards-Helaire didn't get more touches last season vs Pacheco.  Edwards-Helaire was a 1st round pick and KC just rocks at drafting.

Not sure what this has to do with the conversation, but they also drafted Pacheco.  When you’ve got a 7th rounder who puts up 1200 yards, 9 TDs, and only fumbles once in 250 touches, you ride that horse.  You’re right, though.  That was an impressive display of drafting.  Kid’s been in the league 2 years and is 7-0 as a starter in the postseason with 2 rings.  Not bad for the 251st pick in the draft.

[BarleyNY]

12 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Okay.  I will believe the best players and teams step up in the big games.  You can believe the best teams and best players are supposed to struggle in the big games.

I think you're just being stubborn with that statement because I actually don't believe you mean that.  Because why then have you criticized McDermott's playoff tenure in Buffalo?  The Bills are supposed to struggle right?  

 

My theory is BOTH units are responsible.  I have said that more than once but you keep alluding that I only mean offense.  I will say it again, BOTH units. 

 

If you think you are refuting my theory by saying the best teams are supposed struggle in the big games, then you haven't refuted my theory.

Again, in 4 out of our 10 playoff games, we scored 15.6 ppg in those games.  You seem to be arguing that offensive performance is fine because I guess....you're supposed to struggle?  Seems to be.  

 

Wait a minute. BOTH units? Some times specials were to blame too. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

But that’s NOT the comparison.  Nobody is talking about what the Bills offense will do in 2027 when Keon’s in his 4th season.  The conversation revolves around what the WRs will produce in 2024 versus what they produced in 2023.  What Coleman produces after he’s had 3-4 years in the league is immaterial.

Nope you’re wrong as you don’t seem to even understand what is being discussed.  That is NOT the comparison…you either misread it or didn’t take the time to see what we were discussing.

 

What I wrote was about the comparison of Keon coming out of college vs Gabe Davis coming out of College as a 4th round pick.    
 

And within my good convo with Gunner, he added some additional comment about something Gabe eventually improved on which I agreed with him on.
 

👇👇This is the original question by me👇👇

 

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Would you agree coming out of College Keon is a clearly better prospect than Gabe Davis was coming in as a 4th round pick?

 

Davis made a pretty good impact as a rookie despite his limited route tree, mediocre route running, questionable hands, and struggles with getting off the line and separation.  All things Keon is better at than Davis.

 

So not sure I wound say the chances are “low” that he can make an impact this season.  To be fair,  I wouldn’t say they are “high” either, because Keon doesn’t have the benefit Davis had of being opposite Diggs.  But he does have a deep group around him that can make plays including a better run game.  

I just think “low” is a bit harsh when you have Josh Allen at QB and a lot of guys who can make plays like Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Cook, etc still on this offense too.  

It was a direct comparison of Keon and Gabe as rookies.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Haha, come on, that is not even remotely close to what I said 😂.  But hey, no surprise you are trying to change it so you can try and spin away from this silly narrative you are on.

 

I even gave you the benefit of the doubt on Clay...but turns out he too only played in Allen's rookie year where we already established Allen didn't play a full season.  So you are back to zero players that failed to reach a career best season starting with Allen when injuries were not in play.  

 

 

 

 

 

Again this was EXACTLY what you said so cut the "not even remotely close to what I said" bullish!t :

 

"Bottom line, not only is expecting the group to rank higher by seasons end not unreasonable, it’s statistically the most probable outcome based on history of all receivers and weapons that play with Josh Allen." 

 

I underlined it for you this time.   Maybe that will help. 

 

I gave you a paragraph full of "weapons" who have had disappointing seasons and/or failed to perform to expectations with Josh Allen.  

 

Clay, Benjamin, Foster(year 2), Davis(3 years), Knox(multiple years), McKenzie(Lil' Dummy phase), Brown and Beasley(aside from one season each), Sanders, Sherfield, Harty........    

 

Some of those guys were "starters" or expected to become(or remain) "starters" and impact players.

 

That's a lot more "history" than Diggs and one season each of Brown/Beasley.  Fact.

 

[Rocky Landing]

50 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Again this was EXACTLY what you said so cut the "not even remotely close to what I said" bullish!t :

 

"Bottom line, not only is expecting the group to rank higher by seasons end not unreasonable, it’s statistically the most probable outcome based on history of all receivers and weapons that play with Josh Allen." 

 

I underlined it for you this time.   Maybe that will help. 

 

I gave you a paragraph full of "weapons" who have had disappointing seasons and/or failed to perform to expectations with Josh Allen.  

 

Clay, Benjamin, Foster(year 2), Davis(3 years), Knox(multiple years), McKenzie(Lil' Dummy phase), Brown and Beasley(aside from one season each), Sanders, Sherfield, Harty........    

 

Some of those guys were "starters" or expected to become(or remain) "starters" and impact players.

 

That's a lot more "history" than Diggs and one season each of Brown/Beasley.  Fact.

 

I can't agree with this line of reasoning at all. UDFA Foster, who utterly tanked with Washington his third year, and is now out of the NFL, underperformed with Allen??? Fourth round Gabe Davis underperformed with Allen? Knox, who never caught a TD in his entire college career has underperformed with Allen? McKenzie? Have you looked at his numbers since he left Buffalo for the Colts? Of course, Brown and Beasley underperformed... except when they didn't. 

 

Are you honestly saying that Josh Allen doesn't elevate his WRs?

[Royale with Cheese]

5 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

Nope. Not what I said. You have creatively reimagined my post, for the purpose of making it more extreme than what it was.

 

6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

To be fair . . . there have been years when the Bills had a poor OL. There have been years when the WR corps was below-average to really bad. Give the offense average to above-average players in both those areas, and yeah, I'd expect to see a heck of a lot more offensive consistency.

 

5 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

So we have a poor offensive line and really bad WR's?  How have we been among the league leaders in scoring?

How have we outscored the Chiefs in the last 5 seasons, when we have had, how you're explaining it, one of the least talented offenses in the league?  

The Chiefs were LOADED with offensive talent and still behind us.

 

So it's either the players that are better than what you believe or the coaches are better than what many believe.

 

 

Am I missing something?  

[Rampant Buffalo]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

 

 

Am I missing something?  

 

Yes.

[Avisan]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

 

 

Am I missing something?  

Most likely that these folks are operating in bad faith and would much rather be miserable than happy