Behindenemylines Posted July 18 Posted July 18 We now have the opportunity to get multiple guys open vrs just Diggs. Having more available opportunities should greatly increase odds of success. Now granted if they are all average or less then we have dropped off. If a few are better than average we are better off. pliable locker room pickup etc etc diggs fell off in the post season without a fact so more = better for us Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted July 18 Posted July 18 1 hour ago, Avisan said: @BADOLBILZ After a quick attempted peek, I'm opting not to dig through months of posts to find your hot take(s) regarding where exactly you expect our passing offense to rank. Since you've said it so many times, taking the 5 seconds to type out 6 characters and hit reply should be pretty trivial. As I've said many times...........I think Beane is hurriedly seeking a WR1 on the trade market this October. I can't see this being the unit for 17 weeks. But if you want to know what's most LIKELY if they keep the status quo at WR? It is more of what we saw under Joe Brady last season. Obviously. Which was Allen's worst stretch of passing since before his 2020 breakout season. The Bills averaged just 221 yards passing as a team per game in the 9 games under Joe Brady. That would have ranked 23rd in the NFL for the 2023 season. The 62% completions and 2:1 TD/INT ratio were pretty pedestrian as well. Facts. Again, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison but when the weapons got worse the passing game production got pretty-proportionately worse. There are lot's of good QB's, WR's and TE's in the NFL now. You aren't running laps around the more receiver-fortunate just because your QB is better. I'm not going to predict less than 221 yards per game..........I think Allen is the second best QB in the NFL so hopefully he and Brady squeeze out a little more yards above expected than he could last year from this lesser cast and stay in that range. But why would anyone expect so much more(5th dare you say?) than he produced under Brady last year when they've downgraded their WR corps? I'd love to see it happen. Doesn't track. I would anticipate them being among the league leaders in rushing statistics though and to perhaps lead the league in rushing TD's if Allen can survive his own 9+ rushing attempts per game. Allen might have to break his own 15 TD QB rushing record to keep the team in the playoff hunt. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted July 18 Posted July 18 11 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said: We now have the opportunity to get multiple guys open vrs just Diggs. Having more available opportunities should greatly increase odds of success. Now granted if they are all average or less then we have dropped off. If a few are better than average we are better off. 2 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted July 18 Posted July 18 1 hour ago, Mikey152 said: Which league ranking, exactly, are you referring to? Which one's do you want? They had by far the best statistics of any WR corps in the NFL 2020. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted July 18 Posted July 18 3 hours ago, Rocky Landing said: Regarding point 2): The data for ranking WR rooms going into a season, is a lot foggier for some teams than it is for others. It is especially foggy for the Bills for numerous reasons-- Shakir is our only returning WR, the data for the FA WRs comes from other teams, and QBs (far lesser teams, and QBs for most of them), and the way they get used, and who rises in the system is speculatory. I submit that that uncertainty alone will push the Bills WR room ranking down from teams for which the data is more relevant. And if you judge someone like Curtis Samuel on his past performance, without applying the context of the unquestionably better situation he will be entering with the Bills, then it's reasonable to believe he will exceed expectations. That 2020 group of Diggs, Beasley, and Brown, who all had career years with Allen, provide compelling evidence for an optimist like myself. Regarding point 4): Perhaps I've misrepresented your opinion regarding Shakir, or whomever ascends to WR#1, and the "extra attention" that receiver will attract. Obviously, that will happen. But some on this thread seem to suggest that Khalil Shakir is going to be smothered, or at least receive the same attention that Diggs did. But I don't think it's going to be as significant as all that. Regardless of what personnel is on the field-- 12, 11, or even that jumbo package that Brady seems to love-- there will almost always be four legit receivers on the field, and often five. But, you're definitely right about one thing: It does all look easier in the offseason. At least, for an optimist like myself. But, for the pessimists around here, it seems to go the other way. 2) Does "foggier" sound like a good situation to be in to you? More treacherous than good, right? And this is about likelihoods. If Curtis Samuel was a proven WR1......and not a guy with 7 years of paltry 37.2 yards per game averages........we wouldn't be having these discussions we'd be looking forward to that player continuing to be dominant. If they had Marvin Harrison Jr instead of Keon Coleman the result would still be "unknown".........like all results within their given range of possibility..........but we sure as heck wouldn't be saying the outlook was "foggy". Just giving examples. We can't expect to get an MHJ........but we can expect Beane to find a WR1. They aren't that scarce anymore. 4) I don't think Shakir will start the season as WR1. He could........but I'd expect the more outside-proven Curtis Samuel to start the season garnering CB1 attention. I expect defense's will find that to be overkill though. He's always been a 3rd WR so putting CB2 on him would probably suffice for good defense's........and the Bills face a lot of them. The bottom line is that difference makers are called that because that's what they do. There is a reason guys who produce double what Samuel does make 3-4x more on the same open market. Quote
Jauronimo Posted July 18 Posted July 18 43 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: 2) Does "foggier" sound like a good situation to be in to you? More treacherous than good, right? And this is about likelihoods. If Curtis Samuel was a proven WR1......and not a guy with 7 years of paltry 37.2 yards per game averages........we wouldn't be having these discussions we'd be looking forward to that player continuing to be dominant. If they had Marvin Harrison Jr instead of Keon Coleman the result would still be "unknown".........like all results within their given range of possibility..........but we sure as heck wouldn't be saying the outlook was "foggy". Just giving examples. We can't expect to get an MHJ........but we can expect Beane to find a WR1. They aren't that scarce anymore. 4) I don't think Shakir will start the season as WR1. He could........but I'd expect the more outside-proven Curtis Samuel to start the season garnering CB1 attention. I expect defense's will find that to be overkill though. He's always been a 3rd WR so putting CB2 on him would probably suffice for good defense's........and the Bills face a lot of them. The bottom line is that difference makers are called that because that's what they do. There is a reason guys who produce double what Samuel does make 3-4x more on the same open market. Defenses are really going to have to play their CB1 on our WR3. We are creating mismatches all over the field. Talk about a waste of resources but what's the alternative? Bench your CB1 of course. Teams are going to run out of CB3s and CB2s trying to cover our guys. Its pretty brilliant actually. Beane always 4 steps ahead. 2 Quote
Beck Water Posted July 18 Posted July 18 7 hours ago, YattaOkasan said: The concern, and its valid imo, is that we dont have a #1. Your list is correct on why to have hope but how likely are a lot of these things. Shakir, Samuel, MVS are the most established and Coleman's investment sorta demands he do a little. Do wanna check your MVS numbers. I dont see him having 500 yards 3 of 6 seasons (though they alternate and last year he did not get 500 so thats good). Then Hollins had to be force fed to get that 690 yards. I also don't count on Claypool for others. I agree with you - don't count on Claypool. And your point about MVS is valid. He averages 500 yds per season (has 3155 yds over 6 seasons) but he does alternate high and low yardage seasons. Minor nit: if anyone got force-fed on the Raiders in 2022, it was Davonte Adams who had 180 targets, and many of them were low probability deep balls (he had a career low catch % of 56% and a career high Y/R, with a bunch of drops and INT on throws to him). Mack Hollins was just the "*****, Davonte's covered like flies on poo" best of a bad crop outlet in a "we got Davonte Adams and who?" WR room. The thing that bothers me about all this WR talk is that it's all a bit contrived. It's like the plot of a B grade detective novel where several of the characters must behave in specific, contrived ways to make the plot work. We want the Bills to gain over 4100 yds because that's what's needed to have a top-10 credible passing game. So we look at our receivers and say OK, Shakir gained 611 last season, so surely he can take another leap and give us 800 or who knows, 900 or 1000. And Kincaid, likewise, almost 700 last year, 900 this season. And Samuel has been a 600-ish yd guy 3 of the 4 seasons he wasn't on IR, but the 4th season with Brady he gained 850 so surely he'll do that with Allen. MVS, 600 yd year. Coleman, good rookie season with 600 yds like Kincaid last year. Add in 400 receiving yards from Cook and there you are, Baby, 4200 yds! OK, great, but what if Shakir's production actually levels or even falls off when he doesn't have Diggs taking the #1 CB with him; what if Kincaid doesn't "level up; what if MVS and Samuel achieve their career averages? Now we're adding those 4 plus cook and it's 2800-3000 yds and suddenly we need Coleman to have a monster year his college performance suggests he needs some development time to achieve, if he achieves it. Obviously I hope for the former, but when we judge future performance by past results, it's pretty clear why the pundits are skeptical. Quote
Avisan Posted July 18 Posted July 18 10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: As I've said many times...........I think Beane is hurriedly seeking a WR1 on the trade market this October. I can't see this being the unit for 17 weeks. But if you want to know what's most LIKELY if they keep the status quo at WR? It is more of what we saw under Joe Brady last season. Obviously. Which was Allen's worst stretch of passing since before his 2020 breakout season. The Bills averaged just 221 yards passing as a team per game in the 9 games under Joe Brady. That would have ranked 23rd in the NFL for the 2023 season. The 62% completions and 2:1 TD/INT ratio were pretty pedestrian as well. Facts. Again, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison but when the weapons got worse the passing game production got pretty-proportionately worse. There are lot's of good QB's, WR's and TE's in the NFL now. You aren't running laps around the more receiver-fortunate just because your QB is better. I'm not going to predict less than 221 yards per game..........I think Allen is the second best QB in the NFL so hopefully he and Brady squeeze out a little more yards above expected than he could last year from this lesser cast and stay in that range. But why would anyone expect so much more(5th dare you say?) than he produced under Brady last year when they've downgraded their WR corps? I'd love to see it happen. Doesn't track. I would anticipate them being among the league leaders in rushing statistics though and to perhaps lead the league in rushing TD's if Allen can survive his own 9+ rushing attempts per game. Allen might have to break his own 15 TD QB rushing record to keep the team in the playoff hunt. You are aware that Brady was OC for only 7 games, yes? In those 7 games, Allen averaged 243.7 passing yards per game, slightly below his season average of 253.3. One of those games was the Cowboys game, where we demolished them by running it down their throat (49 rushes) with a 5.4 YPC average. His passing yardage average the other 6 games was 268.7 yards per game. Extended to a 17 game season, that would be 4,567 yards, which would have been the 7th-most yardage this past season, 10 yards behind #6 and 11 yards behind #7. Even leaving in the Cowboys' game puts them at 17th over a 17 game season. If the Bills fall outside of the Top 10 because they have more games like the Cowboys game, I think I'm okay with that. If you spent half as much time double-checking your facts as you did bloviating, we could all save a bunch of time and energy here. Should we keep you at a guess of 23rd overall or would you like to amend your prediction? 1 1 Quote
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted July 18 Posted July 18 The best/most reliable this offense was is prime Cole Beasley. Josh is a guy that Is going to make the occasional play within the framework of design but more often than not, he’s making an unexpected play after a breakdown. With his legs, or his arms or both….we need that shifty guy underneath that is uncover-able after 2 or 3 seconds. A guy with sure hands that will break free and give Josh the extra chain moving outlet. That’s what we were missing. I like the balance, I like the shift to Brady. Can one of these WRs become the security blanket when a play isn’t immediately there? If one of these guys can become that we are going to be hard to stop. Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted July 18 Posted July 18 16 hours ago, GoBills808 said: yes, i believe you are supposed to struggle in the playoffs. the competition is better and the level of play is higher. it's more difficult to be successful if that's so incomprehensible to you so be it as for your theory that the offense is responsible for us not getting to the Super Bowl- i don't have the energy to keep refuting it. if believing that makes you happy go for it. this thread is supposed to be about wideouts anyway Okay. I will believe the best players and teams step up in the big games. You can believe the best teams and best players are supposed to struggle in the big games. I think you're just being stubborn with that statement because I actually don't believe you mean that. Because why then have you criticized McDermott's playoff tenure in Buffalo? The Bills are supposed to struggle right? My theory is BOTH units are responsible. I have said that more than once but you keep alluding that I only mean offense. I will say it again, BOTH units. If you think you are refuting my theory by saying the best teams are supposed struggle in the big games, then you haven't refuted my theory. Again, in 4 out of our 10 playoff games, we scored 15.6 ppg in those games. You seem to be arguing that offensive performance is fine because I guess....you're supposed to struggle? Seems to be. Quote
Doc Posted July 18 Posted July 18 32 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Okay. I will believe the best players and teams step up in the big games. You can believe the best teams and best players are supposed to struggle in the big games. I think you're just being stubborn with that statement because I actually don't believe you mean that. Because why then have you criticized McDermott's playoff tenure in Buffalo? The Bills are supposed to struggle right? My theory is BOTH units are responsible. I have said that more than once but you keep alluding that I only mean offense. I will say it again, BOTH units. If you think you are refuting my theory by saying the best teams are supposed struggle in the big games, then you haven't refuted my theory. Again, in 4 out of our 10 playoff games, we scored 15.6 ppg in those games. You seem to be arguing that offensive performance is fine because I guess....you're supposed to struggle? Seems to be. In 10 playoff games they've scored 24 or more points 7 times (and averaged almost 32 PPG). I don't think you can reasonably demand your offense score more than 24 points in the playoffs. In the other 3 games they scored fewer than 20 points and averaged 15.3 PPG. One was Josh's first playoff game, before he became an elite passer and they scored their season average, while another was affected significantly by wind, and was a win. So realistically it's been only 1 game in which the offense struggled offensively in the playoffs. Meanwhile the defense has come up short time and time again. 1 1 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted July 18 Posted July 18 (edited) 2 hours ago, Avisan said: You are aware that Brady was OC for only 7 games, yes? In those 7 games, Allen averaged 243.7 passing yards per game, slightly below his season average of 253.3. One of those games was the Cowboys game, where we demolished them by running it down their throat (49 rushes) with a 5.4 YPC average. His passing yardage average the other 6 games was 268.7 yards per game. Extended to a 17 game season, that would be 4,567 yards, which would have been the 7th-most yardage this past season, 10 yards behind #6 and 11 yards behind #7. Even leaving in the Cowboys' game puts them at 17th over a 17 game season. If the Bills fall outside of the Top 10 because they have more games like the Cowboys game, I think I'm okay with that. If you spent half as much time double-checking your facts as you did bloviating, we could all save a bunch of time and energy here. Should we keep you at a guess of 23rd overall or would you like to amend your prediction? 1) You are forgetting the two home playoff games under Joe Brady. I'm not going to cherry pick because I want as much data as possible to determine the likelihood. Let alone remove dominant, winning results like the Dallas game. That would be asinine. Do we not hope for such games? 2) You are also conflating Josh Allen's individual passing stats(243.7) with team passing stats which subtract sack yardage. You set the parameters for the discussion at where the TEAM would rank........so you are confusing your damn self........let's stay within the team dynamic you requested. https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2013/10/stat-questions-team-passing-yards-vs-individual-passing-yards/ 3) Yes if the Bills run the ball effectively and Josh Allen scores 11 rushing TD's every 9 games(or even 8 in 7 games if you cherry pick) then they will probably win a lot of games and people won't notice how far the passing game has fallen off. You clearly didn't notice it last year. A lot of people didn't because they were winning. I don't think 9.2 rush attempts and 1.2 rush TD's per game is a good way to use your franchise QB but I don't see where they added enough talent to win in a different way. Hopefully I am wrong. 4) Ahem. 5) Again, my prediction is that this won't be the WR corps they stick with all season. But if this is who they stick with, then the likelihood is that McDermott's "complementary football" will have to continue. And whether you want to call it 7 games(17th in passing yardage for Allen individually) or 9 games(23rd in team passing yards) those numbers are a FAR cry from the top 5-10 you are predicting. Which makes your prediction UNLIKELY. Which is the point. It's not about making baseless gut predictions. It's about what's likely based on the most relevant data we have. Edited July 18 by BADOLBILZ 1 1 Quote
Mikey152 Posted July 18 Posted July 18 22 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: 1) You are forgetting the two home playoff games under Joe Brady. I'm not going to cherry pick because I want as much data as possible to determine the likelihood. Let alone remove dominant, winning results like the Dallas game. That would be asinine. Do we not hope for such games? 2) You are also conflating Josh Allen's individual passing stats(243.7) with team passing stats which subtract sack yardage. You set the parameters for the discussion at where the TEAM would rank........so you are confusing your damn self........let's stay within the team dynamic you requested. https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2013/10/stat-questions-team-passing-yards-vs-individual-passing-yards/ 3) Yes if the Bills run the ball effectively and Josh Allen scores 11 rushing TD's every 9 games(or even 8 in 7 games if you cherry pick) then they will probably win a lot of games and people won't notice how far the passing game has fallen off. You clearly didn't notice it last year. A lot of people didn't because they were winning. I don't think 9.2 rush attempts and 1.2 rush TD's per game is a good way to use your franchise QB but I don't see where they added enough talent to win in a different way. Hopefully I am wrong. 4) Ahem. 5) Again, my prediction is that this won't be the WR corps they stick with all season. But if this is who they stick with, then the likelihood is that McDermott's "complementary football" will have to continue. And whether you want to call it 7 games(17th in passing yardage for Allen individually) or 9 games(23rd in team passing yards) those numbers are a FAR cry from the top 5-10 you are predicting. Therefore UNLIKELY. Which is the point. It's not about making baseless gut predictions. It's about what's likely based on the most relevant data we have. Lets try this another way... 6 teams scored more than 50 touchdowns last season on offense. Dolphins, 9ers, Lions, Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. 5 of them were in the top 10 in rushing yards. 5 of them were in the top 10 in passing yards. Cowboys and Ravens were most unbalanced (shocker). The 2023 Lions are a perfect example of the hypocrisy around skill players. St. Brown is a 6' slot receiver that was drafted in the 4th round, and LaPorta was a 3rd round TE. Their high pick WR has had health issues and put up 24 catches last season. Their #2 WR was a journeyman with 600 yards as his best ever season. And their QB was another teams garbage. They did have two backs almost run for 1k each and two pro bowlers on the Oline. Heading into the season, that looked like trash. But their offense was one of the best in the NFL and their OC (who runs A LOT) is considered one of the best in the NFL. St. Brown got a massive deal despite being a 4th round pick because he produced in the slot with tons of targets. It's almost like all some guys need is an opportunity and balance can result in a great offense. 1 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted July 18 Posted July 18 16 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: What @Rocky Landingis saying though is that a BIG part of their rankings are the unknown. Keon is a rookie where people have been split on him and Shakir just put up an insane YPT, Catch %, and led the Bills in receiving over our final 10 games but we have not seen him in a bigger role and without Diggs here. Samuel who is respected, has never played with Allen or any QB that should be starting in the NFL, yet still has been able to be productive. And with ESPN ranking the Bills weapons 24th, that again is again factoring in a lot of the unknown from our youth because we haven't seen them post Diggs (or at all yet in Buffalo like Keon, Davis, and Samuel) to reasonably know what to expect this year from them. Kincaid put up 4th most rec by a rookie TE in NFL history last year to go along with Shakir's and Cook's breakouts. But, all of that happened with a Diggs on the roster, so will they keep ascending in bigger roles with Diggs gone is a question yet to be answered. Brady had a strong start in Buffalo, but now its his offense being installed, one where Allen is also learning a new system. Point is, it is not like they are ranked 24th because the opinion is that Kincaid is not very good...Shakir is not very good...Keon is not very good. They are ranked 24th because those guys who are expected to be the bigger parts of the offense bring potential rather than a proven track record while also having Allen learn now his 3 system in 3 seasons. But lets look at what we do know...pretty much every receiver the past 4 or 5 years that has been one of our top 3 receivers has put up career highs catching passes from Josh Allen, and the ones who didn't were the ones who were hurt like Crowder and Sanders. So, saying it is "not very likely" that the WR Corps would rank higher at the end of the season doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Because the rankings and expectations are set low right now because of the unknown, but the odds are that playing with Allen that they will certainly exceed the low expectations being set preseason. I would happily take the over on a bet about where they finish compared to their current ranking either as a WR Corp or as Weapons overall. Again.........everything is an "unknown". You can't advance a point or be predictive if you dismiss likelihoods in favor of well it's all "unknown". Half the teams in the NFL picked a WR in the first 2 days of the draft for chrissakes. 7 of them BEFORE the Bills. The Bills are by no means unique in regard to having a rookie that they hope could start right away but for some reason this is supposed to be a compelling point of evidence why the Bills are underrated? Because they got the 8th WR off the board? And the 24th "weapons" ranking on ESPN doesn't necessarily imply that ALL of the Bills key players are "not very good"..........it's how they are expected to rank against peers. As I've said many times, the league is absolutely LOADED with talented receiving threats. Look at the actual lists and if you don't know who the opposing players are then look up their production and objectively compare it to things like Kincaid averaging a pathetic 9 yards per catch on a healthy 90 targets and explain to me why it's unrealistic how the Bills targets are being characterized. Also, note that @Rocky Landing says that it's VERY likely that they rank higher. I disagreed. You are attributing his words to me. But the larger point is that there isn't data that suggests it's likely let alone VERY likely. That's all we can work off of. It's not about your offseason "feels". Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted July 18 Posted July 18 39 minutes ago, Doc said: In 10 playoff games they've scored 24 or more points 7 times (and averaged almost 32 PPG). I don't think you can reasonably demand your offense score more than 24 points in the playoffs. In the other 3 games they scored fewer than 20 points and averaged 15.3 PPG. One was Josh's first playoff game, before he became an elite passer and they scored their season average, while another was affected significantly by wind, and was a win. So realistically it's been only 1 game in which the offense struggled offensively in the playoffs. Meanwhile the defense has come up short time and time again. One of those 24 point games was the Chiefs AFCCG. We scored on a TD on a muffed punt recovered at the 3. The other offensive TD was 4 minutes left in the game when we were down by 38-15 and KC had their starters on the sidelines. That's about 40 minutes in between TD's and it was garbage time. That was a bad offensive performance. I think you can demand your offense to be at the same level as it was in the regular season. Look at the information below. Chiefs averaged around 23-24 ppg this season and playoffs. Last year, playoff offensive production was 38, 23, 27 - 29.3 ppg. 29.2 regular season. 2021, playoff offensive production was 42, 42, 24 - 36 ppg. 28.2 regular season. 2020, playoff production was 38, 22, 9 - 23 ppg. 29.6 regular season. 2019, playoff production was 51, 35, 20 - 35.3 ppg. 29.6 regular season average. Allen wasn't an elite passer in the Texans playoff game but we had one offensive TD all game. Didn't scored 3 points in the second half. That's struggling regardless if he's a second year QB or not. Especially since the Texans weren't very good on defense. At some point when you see the Texans climbing back, you got to respond and we didn't. But yes, the defense was also responsible for the 2nd half. Yes the weather was bad. But Diggs went 8 for 106 and a TD and John Brown went 8 for 62 yards. So we had some ability to move the ball in the air. I still don't think 1 offensive TD is good even in that weather. Not to mention the Ravens were able to rack up 340 yards of offense to our 220 and they also dominated TOP. The difference in that game was the Ravens were 0-3 in the redzone and one was a pick 6. Bengals game...bad offensive performance. Quote
Mikey152 Posted July 18 Posted July 18 3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Again.........everything is an "unknown". You can't advance a point or be predictive if you dismiss likelihoods in favor of well it's all "unknown". Half the teams in the NFL picked a WR in the first 2 days of the draft for chrissakes. 7 of them BEFORE the Bills. The Bills are by no means unique in regard to having a rookie that they hope could start right away but for some reason this is supposed to be a compelling point of evidence why the Bills are underrated? Because they got the 8th WR off the board? And the 24th "weapons" ranking on ESPN doesn't necessarily imply that ALL of the Bills key players are "not very good"..........it's how they are expected to rank against peers. As I've said many times, the league is absolutely LOADED with talented receiving threats. Look at the actual lists and if you don't know who the opposing players are then look up their production and objectively compare it to things like Kincaid averaging a pathetic 9 yards per catch on a healthy 90 targets and explain to me why it's unrealistic how the Bills targets are being characterized. Also, note that @Rocky Landing says that it's VERY likely that they rank higher. I disagreed. You are attributing his words to me. But the larger point is that there isn't data that suggests it's likely let alone VERY likely. That's all we can work off of. It's not about your offseason "feels". The Bills are going to throw the ball like 550 times. Our current receiver core didn't have nearly that many targets last year, so SOMEBODY is gonna get more targets. If you project normal increases for their roles and use their average YPT, you're looking at 4500 yards. That's assuming some positive and negative regression. That's not a feeling, it is basic math. So unless you think that these WR are so bad that they can't even crack 7 YPT in an increased role with Josh Allen as the QB...you're overreacting. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted July 18 Posted July 18 18 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: Lets try this another way... 6 teams scored more than 50 touchdowns last season on offense. Dolphins, 9ers, Lions, Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. 5 of them were in the top 10 in rushing yards. 5 of them were in the top 10 in passing yards. Cowboys and Ravens were most unbalanced (shocker). The 2023 Lions are a perfect example of the hypocrisy around skill players. St. Brown is a 6' slot receiver that was drafted in the 4th round, and LaPorta was a 3rd round TE. Their high pick WR has had health issues and put up 24 catches last season. Their #2 WR was a journeyman with 600 yards as his best ever season. And their QB was another teams garbage. They did have two backs almost run for 1k each and two pro bowlers on the Oline. Heading into the season, that looked like trash. But their offense was one of the best in the NFL and their OC (who runs A LOT) is considered one of the best in the NFL. St. Brown got a massive deal despite being a 4th round pick because he produced in the slot with tons of targets. It's almost like all some guys need is an opportunity and balance can result in a great offense. No, let's leave it at "were the 2020 Bills WR's a top 3 WR corps" or not? And the answer is ABSO-F#cking-LUTELY. Do you still disagree? Try to finish what you start. They had by far the most receiving yards of any group of NFL WR's in that 2020 season. I'm not chasing goal posts to help you find an exception that you think proves the Bills should be projected to be where we'd like them to be. You either deal in likelihoods or you go by "feels" and those emotional opinions about what they think will happen aren't a discussion point they are merely a declaration. Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted July 18 Posted July 18 (edited) 18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Again.........everything is an "unknown". You can't advance a point or be predictive if you dismiss likelihoods in favor of well it's all "unknown". Half the teams in the NFL picked a WR in the first 2 days of the draft for chrissakes. 7 of them BEFORE the Bills. The Bills are by no means unique in regard to having a rookie that they hope could start right away but for some reason this is supposed to be a compelling point of evidence why the Bills are underrated? Because they got the 8th WR off the board? And the 24th "weapons" ranking on ESPN doesn't necessarily imply that ALL of the Bills key players are "not very good"..........it's how they are expected to rank against peers. As I've said many times, the league is absolutely LOADED with talented receiving threats. Look at the actual lists and if you don't know who the opposing players are then look up their production and objectively compare it to things like Kincaid averaging a pathetic 9 yards per catch on a healthy 90 targets and explain to me why it's unrealistic how the Bills targets are being characterized. Also, note that @Rocky Landing says that it's VERY likely that they rank higher. I disagreed. You are attributing his words to me. But the larger point is that there isn't data that suggests it's likely let alone VERY likely. That's all we can work off of. It's not about your offseason "feels". Again, you are overlooking the entirety of the unknowns and narrowing it to “lots of teams drafted a rookie WR”. How many of those teams have every WR but 1 as new? How many of those teams have a new OC and new offensive system? How many of those teams have a QB learning his 3rd system in 3 years? How many of those teams are replacing nearly 300 targets in their offense? How many of those teams have their expected top 4 best weapons with 0-2 years experience? Now ask how many of those teams have Josh Allen and who has elevated pretty much every starting WR he has ever played with to career highs? How many of those teams feature a QB with most NFL TDs in history in first 6 years? How many of those teams of those teams have a QB with a NFL record of 40+ TDs for 4 consecutive years and counting? You are just glossing over things to maintain the pessimistic outlook you insist on coating all your views with. Bottom line, not only is expecting the group to rank higher by seasons end not unreasonable based on its low conservative preseason ranks, it’s statistically the most probable outcome based on history of all receivers and weapons that play with Josh Allen. To deny that is to be stubborn to a particular view. Edited July 18 by Alphadawg7 Quote
Mikey152 Posted July 18 Posted July 18 (edited) 3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: No, let's leave it at "were the 2020 Bills WR's a top 3 WR corps" or not? And the answer is ABSO-F#cking-LUTELY. Do you still disagree? Try to finish what you start. They had by far the most receiving yards of any group of NFL WR's in that 2020 season. I'm not chasing goal posts to help you find an exception that you think proves the Bills should be projected to be where we'd like them to be. You either deal in likelihoods or you go by "feels" and those emotional opinions about what they think will happen aren't a discussion point they are merely a declaration. And yet, 2020 isn't even the year people point to when they say they didn't fulfil their promise. It was 2021, and in 2021 they averaged 6.8 ypa and all their passing metrics went down despite having basically the same core. Diggs YPT in 2021 was garbage. Edited July 18 by Mikey152 Quote
Avisan Posted July 18 Posted July 18 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said: 1) You are forgetting the two home playoff games under Joe Brady. I'm not going to cherry pick because I want as much data as possible to determine the likelihood. Let alone remove dominant, winning results like the Dallas game. That would be asinine. Do we not hope for such games? 2) You are also conflating Josh Allen's individual passing stats(243.7) with team passing stats which subtract sack yardage. You set the parameters for the discussion at where the TEAM would rank........so you are confusing your damn self........let's stay within the team dynamic you requested. https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2013/10/stat-questions-team-passing-yards-vs-individual-passing-yards/ 3) Yes if the Bills run the ball effectively and Josh Allen scores 11 rushing TD's every 9 games(or even 8 in 7 games if you cherry pick) then they will probably win a lot of games and people won't notice how far the passing game has fallen off. You clearly didn't notice it last year. A lot of people didn't because they were winning. I don't think 9.2 rush attempts and 1.2 rush TD's per game is a good way to use your franchise QB but I don't see where they added enough talent to win in a different way. Hopefully I am wrong. 4) Ahem. 5) Again, my prediction is that this won't be the WR corps they stick with all season. But if this is who they stick with, then the likelihood is that McDermott's "complementary football" will have to continue. And whether you want to call it 7 games(17th in passing yardage for Allen individually) or 9 games(23rd in team passing yards) those numbers are a FAR cry from the top 5-10 you are predicting. Which makes your prediction UNLIKELY. Which is the point. It's not about making baseless gut predictions. It's about what's likely based on the most relevant data we have. Yawn. 1.) Regular season =/= postseason, and the stats get separated out for a reason. You are welcome to your own personal approach to this, but nobody else is required to humor it when discussing/projecting regular season rankings. 2.) Passing yardage and net passing yardage are two different stats. Both are tracked as team stats. For example, nfl.com tracks raw passing as a team stats. It is also trivial to do this exercise for net passing yards. Minus the Dallas game, 255.5 yards/game, good for 6th overall. With Dallas game, 231.1 yards/game, good for 14th overall. Using your preferred team stat literally helps my argument. Which you would already know if you had bothered to do your homework. 3.) If the Bills have worse passing stats because they are beating teams by running the ball effectively, then... good? Don't we want that? It's not as though the Bills ran because they couldn't pass, excluding the Dallas game they passed very well. You are oddly talking out of both sides of your mouth with the Dallas game, using its aberrant stats to attack the quality of the passing game while pretending to praise it as a good thing. If the Bills don't have more Dallas games, the numbers predict a Top 10 offense based on Brady's regular season performance. If the Bills have two Dallas games next season and fall outside of the Top 10,nobody cares, because that's awesome news for us, and anybody who uses those games to attack our offensive capabilities is operating in bad faith. So again, are you sticking to a prediction of 23rd overall net passing offense for the 2024 season? Quote
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