I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[HappyDays]

31 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Since we average 26.9 ppg game, does that mean our offense played well against the Chiefs in the AFCCG, Ravens Divisional game, the Bengals divisional game or the Texans game?  In those 4 games, our offense averaged 15.7 ppg.  It's really a crazy take to me to say the offense has struggled too?

 

Personally I would throw out the Ravens game entirely, for both sides of the ball. That was not a real game of football. FWIW removing that game would put our offensive PPG at 28.0, and our defensive PPG at 27.2.

 

Also FWIW in two of the three other games you listed (Chiefs and Texans) our offense scored more points than the Chiefs did when they won the AFCCG this year. If that's what we're considering as bad playoff games for the offense, that kind of proves the point we're making. The Bengals game is the only one where I would say the offense was outright bad and gave the team no chance to win.

 

So yes it is a crazy take to try and paint the offensive and defensive performances in the playoffs as remotely equivalent in any way. The offense is regularly putting up more points than their opponent typically allows, while the defense is regularly giving up more points than their opponent typically scores.

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Beasley was there in 2019.  I know Allen was raw but 3 points in the second half....

I know it was windy in the Ravens game but I still don't think 10 points is a good performance.  We put up 23 on them in the rain 2 seasons ago against just as good a defense.  We played poorly all game outside of one drive.

 

But should we expect a FG to tie a game when you have the ball deep into Chiefs territory with a chance to win it?  That's a big moment that they didn't step up.

 

Sorry you're right, Beasley was there in 2019.  But the team averaged just 19 PPG that season.

 

The conditions in that Baltimore game were amazingly bad for passing.  Harbaugh even said the wind "was impactful."  And recall that was a win.

 

And I would like to think we could have expected a TD on that last drive.  But again if Bass had done his job, they end up with their season average for points.  And again that was without Davis.  The bigger issue, as usual, has been the defense.  And they were missing several key starters that game.

 

 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Also FWIW in two of the three other games you listed (Chiefs and Texans) our offense scored more points than the Chiefs did when they won the AFCCG this year. If that's what we're considering as bad playoff games for the offense, that kind of proves the point we're making

Holy smokes lol. The Bills-Chiefs final score was a garbage time fiesta. It was 38-15 with 7 minutes left and we got some garbage time points up. What an offensive masterclass.

Edited July 17 by FireChans

[Beck Water]

50 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Diggs is literally the only standout talent from our receiver group, the rest were... fine?  This board heavily overrates Beasley, imo.

 

We have players equal to or better than everybody but prime Diggs.  Diggs wasn't a very good playoffs receiver for us, though, so his absence really doesn't concern me that much.

 

I don't think the board over-rates the Beasley the Bills saw in 2020.  I think that's Cold Hard Football Facts supportable by data.

 

There's this stat, "receiving success %", which is not some frankenstat you need a PhD in computer science to really understand.  It's simply how often the receiver gains 40% of the yards required on 1D, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down, divided by # targets.

In 2020, Beasley was 7th in the league there.  He and Allen had learned to be on the same page, Josh had learned to throw with anticipation, Josh trusted him, and he fought for every blade of grass.  In 2021, he fell off in both 1D and in success % and that's one reason the Bills moved on.

If good playoff WR is your criterion, we ought to really miss Gabe Davis.

 

40 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Sorry you're right, Beasley was there in 2019.  But the team averaged just 19 PPG that season.

 

The conditions in that Baltimore game were amazingly bad for passing.  Harbaugh even said the wind "was impactful."  And recall that was a win.

 

And I would like to think we could have expected a TD on that last drive.  But again if Bass had done his job, they end up with their season average for points.  And again that was without Davis.  The bigger issue, as usual, has been the defense.  And they were missing several key starters that game.

 

If by "several", you mean we were starting the Little Sisters of the Poor and a one-winged chicken at LB, yeah.
(edit: credit to @NewEra I think for that LSotP phrase)
 

41 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Personally I would throw out the Ravens game entirely, for both sides of the ball. That was not a real game of football.

 

Um Wait Wat?

Edited July 17 by Beck Water

[Royale with Cheese]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Personally I would throw out the Ravens game entirely, for both sides of the ball. That was not a real game of football. FWIW removing that game would put our offensive PPG at 28.0, and our defensive PPG at 27.2.

 

Also FWIW in two of the three other games you listed (Chiefs and Texans) our offense scored more points than the Chiefs did when they won the AFCCG this year. If that's what we're considering as bad playoff games for the offense, that kind of proves the point we're making. The Bengals game is the only one where I would say the offense was outright bad and gave the team no chance to win.

 

So yes it is a crazy take to try and paint the offensive and defensive performances in the playoffs as remotely equivalent in any way. The offense is regularly putting up more points than their opponent typically allows, while the defense is regularly giving up more points than their opponent typically scores.

 

I don't think you're allowed to throw any game out for stats.

 

Our first TD was a muffed punt that was recovered at the 3 yard line.  Our next TD was 4 minutes left in the game when we were down 38-15 when the Chiefs entire starting defense was off the field.  You thought our offense wasn't bad in that game?  

If we are going to throw out an entire game for whatever reason, can I throw out that muffed punt so the Bills actually scored 17 to skew the stats the other direction or something?  Garbage time and having the ball at the 3 on a turnover isn't strong evidence our offense played well or even decent.  Our TD's were 3 quarters apart from each other....that's not a good performance.

 

If you are throwing out games to skew stats, using garbage time and comparing different AFCCG from different seasons, you're not going doing a very good job of proving it's a crazy take.

This is the definition of moving goal posts.

 

I have not said it's equivalent.  I have said the defense has been bad.  All I'm saying is the offense has laid too many eggs too.  40% of the playoff games, our offense has sucked.

Edited July 17 by Royale with Cheese

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Holy smokes lol. The Bills-Chiefs final score was a garbage time fiesta. It was 38-15 with 7 minutes left and we got some garbage time points up. What an offensive masterclass.

 

Okay fine. We can also add on missed FGs to make the defense look worse and the offense look better. No matter how you want to lay it out, the offense very clearly has been well above average and the defense has been well below average in the playoffs. It's really not debatable.

 

But my whole point is that well above average isn't good enough. We need the offense to be totally dominant in the playoffs to the point that it doesn't even matter what the defense does, and even that caliber of offense might not be enough to get us past the divisional round as we learned in the 2022 playoffs. Like we basically need a perfect offense just to give us a coin flip chance of making it to the Super Bowl. Not really a realistic expectation but I wish we would at least try to build the offense to that level.

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

So it's kind of a trick statement.  It raises the question "what do you mean by a top 3 WR corps?"

 

If you mean, "had the most top producers at WR":

Diggs was the top WR in the league in 2020.  Top in targets, receptions, yards; second to Davonte Adams and Cole Beasley for catch % in the top 32 WR.

Beasley was just outside the top-20 for yards and receptions - 23 and 21 I think.  
 

One can make an argument for KC that year, with Kelce and Hill, beiong the best receiving corps, then the Bills, then Minn with Jefferson and Theilen.  Carolina with DJ Moore and Chosen would be up there, and Tenn with AJ Brown and Corey Davis would be in the mix.

If by "top 3 receiving corps" you mean "overall talent in the 3-4 receivers on the field", then "Nah".  But there really weren't any dominant Chase-Higgins-Boyd trios that season.

 

What on earth are you talking about with "trick statements" and not being talented in their top 3-4.

 

Their top 4 were the highest producing WR top 4 in the NFL in 2020.

 

By a WIDE margin.

 

And McKenzie's 280+ yards as WR5 dwarfed most good WR corps 4th WR production and was more than some of the better team's top WR corps 3rd WR.

 

They were among the best no matter how you slice it..............people just seem to forget that it was not very common to have the kind of talent that the better teams have accumulated today.

 

Also, remember.........we are talking about WR corps here.   Not RB's or TE's.  

 

We've established that we are discussing WR's about 50 pages back..........let's not backslide into the "weapons" debate. 

 

[FireChans]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Okay fine. We can also add on missed FGs to make the defense look worse and the offense look better. No matter how you want to lay it out, the offense very clearly has been well above average and the defense has been well below average in the playoffs. It's really not debatable.

 

But my whole point is that well above average isn't good enough. We need the offense to be totally dominant in the playoffs to the point that it doesn't even matter what the defense does, and even that caliber of offense might not be enough to get us past the divisional round as we learned in the 2022 playoffs. Like we basically need a perfect offense just to give us a coin flip chance of making it to the Super Bowl. Not really a realistic expectation but I wish we would at least try to build the offense to that level.

I consider missed FG’s a part of the game. Garbage time points are not, because the game is over.
 

The offense had a really good run in 2021. Like historically good.

 

Outside of that run, they have a significant amount of warts. They collapsed in 2019 v Houston and 2020 v the Chiefs. In 2022, they sleptwalked the entire postseason, and allowed Skylar Thompson to keep it close by turning it over 100 times then got blasted by Cinci.

 

Our guy is making a living on two great playoff games, one vs a rookie who is no longer a starting QB in the NFL. 

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Our first TD was a muffed punt that was recovered at the 3 yard line.  Our next TD was 4 minutes left in the game when we were down 38-15 when the Chiefs entire starting defense was off the field.  You thought our offense wasn't bad in that game?  

If we are going to throw out an entire game for whatever reason, can I throw out that muffed punt so the Bills actually scored 17 to skew the stats the other direction or something?  Garbage time and having the ball at the 3 on a turnover isn't strong evidence our offense played well or even decent.  Our TD's were 3 quarters apart from each other....that's not a good performance.

 

Sure the offense was not good enough in that game. I can concede that point. It doesn't change the conversation at all. Based on how the defense performed it wouldn't have mattered either way. Ditto for the Bengals game. There is not a single playoff game in the Josh Allen era where you can say the defense did their job but the offense didn't, but there are several where you can say the opposite.

 

But also your whole argument here is proving my point... The offense has not been good enough to make up for bad defensive performances. We need a major influx of talent on that side of the ball so that we can regularly put up 30+ points in the playoffs.

[Alphadawg7]

12 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

crazy take

 

since Allen's been QB the offense has averaged 379 yards/game and 26.9points/game in the playoffs. for reference that would have been the 4th and 6th best offensive production in the league last season, respectively

 

the defense meanwhile has somehow managed to give up 380 yards/game and 24.8 points/game, which for reference would have been the 31st ranked defense by yards and the 30th ranked defense by points last season

 

the defense is absolutely horrific in the playoffs. it's not just bad, it's legitimately worst in the league bad

I agree the defense has been a major playoff issue, although 2023 I feel like injuries were its biggest problem not having healthy LB’s.  
 

But, his take wasn’t crazy, you just changed the subject to create a different narrative. You’re masking the data he provided of the games that sent us home in the playoffs by trying to prop them up using playoff totals that factors in games where we didn’t lose and had big wins.  Winning those games by 1 point of 50 points is 100% irrelevant in the next game where we lost and went home.  
 

The only playoff loss our offense didn’t struggle was the 2021 KC game. 

Hou - Offense disappeared in 2nd half and allowed Hou to come back where our defense was forced to save the game and failed.

 

KC - offense and defense were both terrible

 

KC - Offense comes on late to put up excellent game, Def blows 13 seconds and OT

 

CIN - Offense and defense were both anemic and Dorsey was totally outcoached and Bills could not run the ball to save their life.
 

KC - Offense gave the game back to KC while losing and scoring well under our season average. 
 

And the most consistent problem in all those games…we lost in the trenches.  Everything from protecting Allen and run blocking, to our front 7 not being able to sniff the opposing QB.

 

So while I do absolutely agree that our defense is the bigger problem, the offense has had its own struggles in season ending games and not winning up front has been a big reason.  Even this year, our last 2 plays of the game before the missed FG the OL failed.  
 

And part of the reason I am more optimistic about the offense going into this season than I was last year is because I feel our OL is strong and Brady understands how to balance and create a run game when needed. 
 

A lot gets made of Brady running so much last year, but it’s skewed by the Cowboys game.  He used the run game strategically and our offense became more consistent.  And in the playoffs that is important.  

Edited July 17 by Alphadawg7

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sure the offense was not good enough in that game. I can concede that point. It doesn't change the conversation at all. Based on how the defense performed it wouldn't have mattered either way. Ditto for the Bengals game. There is not a single playoff game in the Josh Allen era where you can say the defense did their job but the offense didn't, but there are several where you can say the opposite.

 

But also your whole argument here is proving my point... The offense has not been good enough to make up for bad defensive performances. We need a major influx of talent on that side of the ball so that we can regularly put up 30+ points in the playoffs.

 

Yes, there is actually one but we're not allowed to use that game.  We beat the Ravens 17-3 but that game has to be thrown out for this argument.

 

I can say the same thing about other Bills bad performances too.  It wouldn't have mattered what our defense did against the Bengals, the offense was doing nothing.  It's both ways.  

 

It's not the talent, it's the consistency.  Our offense has been talented enough but the production hasn't been consistent in the playoffs.  Not enough where it's a one and done tournament.  We are top 3 scoring offense in the league since 2020 and we did it without talent?

[oldmanfan]

Bottom line for the defense is when they absolutely have had to make a stop in playoff games to win, they have not.  And that has to change or McD likely has to move on.  As for the offense, you cannot expect perfection, but they have come up with plays when needed far more than the defense.  

 

You need both to win a Lombardi.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yes, there is actually one but we're not allowed to use that game.  We beat the Ravens 17-3 but that game has to be thrown out for this argument.

 

I can say the same thing about other Bills bad performances too.  It wouldn't have mattered what our defense did against the Bengals, the offense was doing nothing.  It's both ways.  

 

It's not the talent, it's the consistency.  Our offense has been talented enough but the production hasn't been consistent in the playoffs.  Not enough where it's a one and done tournament.  We are top 3 scoring offense in the league since 2020 and we did it without talent?

Hey man, we can’t count the games where the offense did basically nothing and the defense outscored the opponent single-handedly who was led by the reigning MVP. 
 

Otherwise our narrative of, “Josh Allen is perfect and everyone else holds him back” doesn’t hold up as well.

[eball]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

We beat the Ravens 17-3 but that game has to be thrown out for this argument

 

That was a weather game.  Wind gusts were crazy.

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, eball said:

 

That was a weather game.  Wind gusts were crazy.

 

And yet, if we had lost, there’s no doubt @GoBills808 and @HappyDays would point to that game as yet another example McDermott sucks. And we would hear about it forever.

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, eball said:

 

That was a weather game.  Wind gusts were crazy.

 

 

So weather games, we should expect 10 points a game with Josh Allen at QB?  

 

Weather will affect it but to say weather will affect it to the point where one successful offensive drive is acceptable, then we have problems.

[GoBills808]

lol this is peak offseason

 

when your response is 'sometimes the offense struggles too!'...its the NFL playoffs. you are EXPECTED to struggle. what you aren't expected to do is lay down on defense like we do consistently and without fail. 

 

our defense does not make opposing offenses struggle. in 3 games vs the Chiefs in the playoffs we are allowing 450ypg and 35.6ppg...that is unforgiveable. the bengals somehow manage to actually play professional defense to the tune of 366ypg and 23.5ppg

[eball]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

So weather games, we should expect 10 points a game with Josh Allen at QB?  

 

Weather will affect it but to say weather will affect it to the point where one successful offensive drive is acceptable, then we have problems.

 

Nah, but a high-powered Ravens offense only scored 3.  And that was nearly four years ago…Josh isn’t the same QB now.

 

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

lol this is peak offseason

 

when your response is 'sometimes the offense struggles too!'...its the NFL playoffs. you are EXPECTED to struggle. what you aren't expected to do is lay down on defense like we do consistently and without fail. 

 

our defense does not make opposing offenses struggle. in 3 games vs the Chiefs in the playoffs we are allowing 450ypg and 35.6ppg...that is unforgiveable. the bengals somehow manage to actually play professional defense to the tune of 366ypg and 23.5ppg

KC scored 21.6 PPG last year. They scored 23.75 in the playoffs.

 

Offenses are expected to struggle lmao. Maybe for certain QBs.

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

What on earth are you talking about with "trick statements" and not being talented in their top 3-4.

 

I think I wrote reasonably clear English explaining what I meant.

 

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Also, remember.........we are talking about WR corps here.   Not RB's or TE's.  

We've established that we are discussing WR's about 50 pages back..........let's not backslide into the "weapons" debate. 

 

The post to which I responded said, and I quote "Diggs/Davis/Beasley/Brown is a Top 3 receiving corps?"

Receiving corps.  Not WR corps.

 

Like most people here, I'm responding to a specific post (by Avesian), not to "50 pages back".  

 

Thanks

Edited July 17 by Beck Water