I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Rampant Buffalo]

27 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

You keep talking about 2020/2021 like nothing has changed...

 

Offense across the league is down since then, especially passing offense and even more significantly passing in the Red Zone. It's a big reason Gabe Davis seemed to regress...Teams started playing more two high and refs started calling less DPI. It was easier to neutralize him.

 

To me, that was the biggest change going from Dorsey to Brady. Dorsey continued to call plays like nothing had changed, and the only reason we didn't completely suck is because he has the best QB in the NFL on his team. When Brady took over, our efficiency went way down, but we were finally taking what the defense was giving us. I think we realized pretty quick that our roster was not built for more of a possession and YAC game, though. Inconsistent hands and pretty bad ball skills across the board. Right plays, wrong players. Only Shakir looked like a fit. Not a coincidence he is the only WR left. I think Stef could do it, but lets be real...his bread and butter is winning routes against man and making catches downfield. He was never a great after catch guy and most of his drops were on quick passes where LB might be lurking so he isn't trying to work middle zones.

 

So, like them or not, our new WR do fit what Brady wants to do and the way the NFL is trending better. If we had more money (Stef dead cap) maybe we get a better player than MVS/Claypool as the Vet X, but I think Shakir and Samuel are exactly who they need at Y and Z...guys who make catches and can make things happen with the ball in their hands.

 

You act as though the Bills are wise to de-emphasize their own passing game, due to the increased difficulty of passing. If you look at the list of NFL passing leaders over the years, it's clear we are in a golden age of passing. If teams are playing two high, that reduces your big plays, but maybe opens up other passing opportunities for intermediate routes.

 

The Bills have a first ballot HOF player at QB. If you have a guy like that, you need to surround him with weapons. You need to build an elite passing offense around him. Running the ball more than half the time, as Brady did last year, is exactly the wrong approach long term. The offense needs to be built around the pass.

 

Compared to 2020, the Bills are better off at TE (having added Kincaid). As a slot receiver, Shakir is a downgrade from Beasley, but is still a pretty good player. They've upgraded at gadget player (Samuel is better than McKenzie). Their weaknesses, at least as perceived by me, are at Z and at X. No obvious replacements for either Diggs or Davis. But maybe a guy I don't expect much from will step up.

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

You act as though the Bills are wise to de-emphasize their own passing game, due to the increased difficulty of passing. If you look at the list of NFL passing leaders over the years, it's clear we are in a golden age of passing. If teams are playing two high, that reduces your big plays, but maybe opens up other passing opportunities for intermediate routes.

 

The Bills have a first ballot HOF player at QB. If you have a guy like that, you need to surround him with weapons. You need to build an elite passing offense around him. Running the ball more than half the time, as Brady did last year, is exactly the wrong approach long term. The offense needs to be built around the pass.

 

Compared to 2020, the Bills are better off at TE (having added Kincaid). As a slot receiver, Shakir is a downgrade from Beasley, but is still a pretty good player. They've upgraded at gadget player (Samuel is better than McKenzie). Their weaknesses, at least as perceived by me, are at Z and at X. No obvious replacements for either Diggs or Davis. But maybe a guy I don't expect much from will step up.

 

Absolutely no disagreement about the need to surround a top passing QB with top receiving talent and a top pass protecting OL

 

I *think* that Brady emphasized the run so much last year, especially for a couple of games (Cowboys and Chargers, which skewed the overall stats) - not because he intends the Bills to be a "run first" team but because Allen injured his shoulder worse than they wanted anyone to know, and it was getting re-aggrevated to the point that it was seriously affecting his passing motion.  So they tried to give him "rest in place" games.

 

But that could just be wishful thinking on my part.  

Facts, after Brady took over we had 5 games (including WC playoff) where we had more run plays than pass plays, 3 games where we had more pass plays than run plays, and the KC division loss was even.  So make of that what you will.

 

It's really the key unanswered question of the Bills 2024 season, "what exactly are Brady's intentions for the offense, and will he be able to fulfil them with the guys he has in the room?"

PS it's a nit, but IMHO it's selling Samuel way short to call him a "gadget guy".  While he can execute gadget plays and line up in the backfield, he is a capable slot receiver and can run routes from all the positions.  He gets 600+ yds routinely when healthy, which is way more than the "gadget guy" manages.

Edited July 17 by Beck Water

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

You keep talking about 2020/2021 like nothing has changed...

 

Offense across the league is down since then, especially passing offense and even more significantly passing in the Red Zone. It's a big reason Gabe Davis seemed to regress...Teams started playing more two high and refs started calling less DPI. It was easier to neutralize him.

 

To me, that was the biggest change going from Dorsey to Brady. Dorsey continued to call plays like nothing had changed, and the only reason we didn't completely suck is because he has the best QB in the NFL on his team. When Brady took over, our efficiency went way down, but we were finally taking what the defense was giving us. I think we realized pretty quick that our roster was not built for more of a possession and YAC game, though. Inconsistent hands and pretty bad ball skills across the board. Right plays, wrong players. Only Shakir looked like a fit. Not a coincidence he is the only WR left. I think Stef could do it, but lets be real...his bread and butter is winning routes against man and making catches downfield. He was never a great after catch guy and most of his drops were on quick passes where LB might be lurking so he isn't trying to work middle zones.

 

So, like them or not, our new WR do fit what Brady wants to do and the way the NFL is trending better. If we had more money (Stef dead cap) maybe we get a better player than MVS/Claypool as the Vet X, but I think Shakir and Samuel are exactly who they need at Y and Z...guys who make catches and can make things happen with the ball in their hands.

 

The biggest change for the Bills since 2020?

 

They had a top 3 WR corps in 2020.

 

They have a bottom 3 to 6 WR corps now.

 

Part of that is the Bills letting their WR corps atrophy greatly...........it's not like the 2020 group was a bunch of kids they failed to build thru the draft so they added a bunch of mid-to-late career vets.  

 

The bigger part of their decline in the league rankings is that the league has had a huge influx of WR talent each season.........and that 2020 talent they had might not rank top 12 in today's game.

 

Defense's all broadly adjusted to taking away big plays because they were getting overwhelmed because everybody suddenly had WR talent. 

 

Offense's have been impacted because they don't execute well enough to string together 10+ play drives without mistakes...........not because defense's have gotten dominant.

 

So offense's are trying to get MORE playmakers.........guys who can still make plays against defense's that are playing bend-but-don't-break defense.  

[Royale with Cheese]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's not really a complaint, just a matter of fact. We need an offense that can score at will, including in the playoffs.

 

I actually think this is where the disconnect lies between both sides in this discussion. Nobody thinks the offense is going to suck. Josh Allen means we are basically guaranteed a top 10 offense. It's just that top 10 is not equivalent to championship caliber. If you adjust your perspective to that, you'll understand why so many of us are unsatisfied with the offensive investments.

 

 

I agree it is dramatic. But when your defense is consistently giving up historically bad production in the playoffs, you need a historically productive offense to overcome that, no?

 

 

Yes the defense has had some bad games in the playoffs.  But so has the offense.  

 

In 2019, 16-0 at half, scored 3 points in the entire second half against the Texans.

The 2020 playoffs, 1 offensive TD against the Ravens.  Laid an egg in the AFCCG again the following week.

The 2021 playoffs - great

The 2022 1 offensive TD against the Bengals.

2023....what were your expectations against the Chiefs in the divisional round?  You were going to beat the mastermind offensive play caller Andy Reid and the greatest start to an NFL career in Patrick Mahomes with both starting linebackers out in Milano and Bernard, our back up in Spector also out and Christian Benford?

Our LB's were our strength...both Milano and Benard were playing at All Pro levels. 

If the Chiefs were missing Nick Bolton, Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid....what would be your expectations for our offense in the AFC Divisional game

 

It's not really fair to just criticize the defense.  Both units haven't showed up consistently.

[ghostwriter]

I think Buffalo has three WR2 type of receivers on the roster. Nobody elite like Diggs but guys who fall into that 65-70 recs and 750-800yds range (Samuel, Shakir and Coleman).
 

Not saying it’s necessarily a bad thing, Kincaid will probably be our most targeted player when it’s all said and done.

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yes the defense has had some bad games in the playoffs.  But so has the offense.  

 

In 2019, 16-0 at half, scored 3 points in the entire second half against the Texans.

The 2020 playoffs, 1 offensive TD against the Ravens.  Laid an egg in the AFCCG again the following week.

The 2021 playoffs - great

The 2022 1 offensive TD against the Bengals.

2023....what were your expectations against the Chiefs in the divisional round?  You were going to beat the mastermind offensive play caller Andy Reid and the greatest start to an NFL career in Patrick Mahomes with both starting linebackers out in Milano and Bernard, our back up in Spector also out and Christian Benford?

Our LB's were our strength...both Milano and Benard were playing at All Pro levels. 

If the Chiefs were missing Nick Bolton, Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid....what would be your expectations for our offense in the AFC Divisional game

 

It's not really fair to just criticize the defense.  Both units haven't showed up consistently.

crazy take

 

since Allen's been QB the offense has averaged 379 yards/game and 26.9points/game in the playoffs. for reference that would have been the 4th and 6th best offensive production in the league last season, respectively

 

the defense meanwhile has somehow managed to give up 380 yards/game and 24.8 points/game, which for reference would have been the 31st ranked defense by yards and the 30th ranked defense by points last season

 

the defense is absolutely horrific in the playoffs. it's not just bad, it's legitimately worst in the league bad

[HappyDays]

48 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

since Allen's been QB the offense has averaged 379 yards/game and 26.9points/game in the playoffs. for reference that would have been the 4th and 6th best offensive production in the league last season, respectively

 

the defense meanwhile has somehow managed to give up 380 yards/game and 24.8 points/game, which for reference would have been the 31st ranked defense by yards and the 30th ranked defense by points last season

 

Right. So when I say we probably need our offense to be ranked #1 to get further in the playoffs, this is what I'm referring to. Top 10 isn't good enough. Even top 5 production hasn't been good enough like you point out. We need an offense that can overcome historically bad defensive production.

 

Edited July 17 by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Right. So when I say we probably need our offense to be ranked #1 to get further in the playoffs, this is what I'm referring to. Top 10 isn't good enough. Even top 5 production hasn't been good enough like you point out. We need an offense that can overcome historically bad defensive production.

 

We all watch the games

It's a solid take

[Rampant Buffalo]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yes the defense has had some bad games in the playoffs.  But so has the offense.  

 

In 2019, 16-0 at half, scored 3 points in the entire second half against the Texans.

The 2020 playoffs, 1 offensive TD against the Ravens.  Laid an egg in the AFCCG again the following week.

The 2021 playoffs - great

The 2022 1 offensive TD against the Bengals.

2023....what were your expectations against the Chiefs in the divisional round?  You were going to beat the mastermind offensive play caller Andy Reid and the greatest start to an NFL career in Patrick Mahomes with both starting linebackers out in Milano and Bernard, our back up in Spector also out and Christian Benford?

Our LB's were our strength...both Milano and Benard were playing at All Pro levels. 

If the Chiefs were missing Nick Bolton, Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid....what would be your expectations for our offense in the AFC Divisional game

 

It's not really fair to just criticize the defense.  Both units haven't showed up consistently.

 

Yeah your post is solid. You've made good points. But I'd like to draw a distinction. Have there been playoff games when the offense played poorly? Absolutely. No question. But there have also been a number of playoff games where the offense has played well.

 

Whereas with the defense: every time the Bills have played the Chiefs or Bengals in the postseason, the defense has never generated more than two stops. That's 4 games against top passing QBs, and four defensive collapses. Not once in the postseason has the defense done anything other than collapse, when faced with a top passing QB. Not once.

 

If the defense had some good postseason games against Mahomes and Burrow, as well as some bad games, then I'd feel like we had a shot of winning a Super Bowl if things fell our way. But with the defense experiencing near-total failure every single time it faces a QB like that in the postseason, Super Bowl hopes feel unrealistic.

[Don Otreply]

20 hours ago, eball said:

 

Wait-and-see is the only reasonable approach for a fan to take.  And predicting good catch numbers for Kincaid and Shakir is hardly pie-in-the-sky thinking.

 

You just hate optimists and think you have to beat everyone down who doesn't immediately bow to your self-lauded superior football intelligence.

 

And when some of us ignore you, you resort to personal attacks.  You have your little puppies BillsVet and Bill from NYC to come running to your defense.  It's hilarious.

 

I've got no time for your nonsense.  I'm sorry we root for the same team.  At least I hate the Yankees.

 

 

Basically Bado is so lost in the weeds as a football nerd, that he apparently no longer has the capacity to be upbeat and have fun with the team /game, kinda sad actually, oh well, time for a cup of coffee ☕️ 

 

[Avisan]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

They had a top 3 WR corps in 2020.

Diggs/Davis/Beasley/Brown is a Top 3 receiving corps?

[BADOLBILZ]

56 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Diggs/Davis/Beasley/Brown is a Top 3 receiving corps?

 

 

They WERE.

 

Like I said.........that unit and the skills they brought to the table then wouldn't stack up as well today though.........after 4 years of major WR talent influx around the NFL.

 

But it would still be better than what they have now by a considerable margin.   Not having a WR1 in today's game is sub-optimal to say the least.   

[Avisan]

59 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They WERE.

 

Like I said.........that unit and the skills they brought to the table then wouldn't stack up as well today though.........after 4 years of major WR talent influx around the NFL.

 

But it would still be better than what they have now by a considerable margin.   Not having a WR1 in today's game is sub-optimal to say the least.   

I presume the delta in offensive scoring and production around the league since 2020 reflect this alleged tremendous increase in WR talent?

[Royale with Cheese]

11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

crazy take

 

since Allen's been QB the offense has averaged 379 yards/game and 26.9points/game in the playoffs. for reference that would have been the 4th and 6th best offensive production in the league last season, respectively

 

the defense meanwhile has somehow managed to give up 380 yards/game and 24.8 points/game, which for reference would have been the 31st ranked defense by yards and the 30th ranked defense by points last season

 

the defense is absolutely horrific in the playoffs. it's not just bad, it's legitimately worst in the league bad

 

Are you really saying consistency isn't an issue with our offense in the playoffs?

 

Since we average 26.9 ppg game, does that mean our offense played well against the Chiefs in the AFCCG, Ravens Divisional game, the Bengals divisional game or the Texans game?  In those 4 games, our offense averaged 15.7 ppg.  It's really a crazy take to me to say the offense has struggled too?

That's 40% of our playoff games where our offense laid an egg.  You're not winning it all with that lack of consistency in a one and done tournament where the minimum you have to win is 3 in a row.

 

Do you really think that makes sense?  24.8 ppg in the post season making it equivalent to a regular season ranking?  The level of competition is the same or something?  Want to talk about a crazy take.

Edited July 17 by Royale with Cheese

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Avisan said:

Diggs/Davis/Beasley/Brown is a Top 3 receiving corps?

 

So it's kind of a trick statement.  It raises the question "what do you mean by a top 3 WR corps?"

 

If you mean, "had the most top producers at WR":

Diggs was the top WR in the league in 2020.  Top in targets, receptions, yards; second to Davonte Adams and Cole Beasley for catch % in the top 32 WR.

Beasley was just outside the top-20 for yards and receptions - 23 and 21 I think.  
 

One can make an argument for KC that year, with Kelce and Hill, beiong the best receiving corps, then the Bills, then Minn with Jefferson and Theilen.  Carolina with DJ Moore and Chosen would be up there, and Tenn with AJ Brown and Corey Davis would be in the mix.

If by "top 3 receiving corps" you mean "overall talent in the 3-4 receivers on the field", then "Nah".  But there really weren't any dominant Chase-Higgins-Boyd trios that season.

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Are you really saying consistency isn't an issue with our offense in the playoffs?

 

Since we average 26.9 ppg game, does that mean our offense played well against the Chiefs in the AFCCG, Ravens Divisional game, the Bengals divisional game or the Texans game?  In those 4 games, our offense averaged 15.7 ppg.  It's really a crazy take to me to say the offense has struggled too?

That's 40% of our playoff games where our offense laid an egg.  You're not winning it all with that lack of consistency in a one and done tournament where the minimum you have to win is 3 in a row.

 

The Texans playoff game doesn't count because a) Josh was still raw and b) the offense wasn't great (it was before Diggs and Beasley).  The Ravens playoff game was windy as hell.  And as for the AFCCG against the Chefs, if Bass makes that kick like he should have, they would have scored 27 points, and that was without Davis playing.  The Bengals game they definitely struggled offensively.

Edited July 17 by Doc

[Royale with Cheese]

8 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

Yeah your post is solid. You've made good points. But I'd like to draw a distinction. Have there been playoff games when the offense played poorly? Absolutely. No question. But there have also been a number of playoff games where the offense has played well.

 

Whereas with the defense: every time the Bills have played the Chiefs or Bengals in the postseason, the defense has never generated more than two stops. That's 4 games against top passing QBs, and four defensive collapses. Not once in the postseason has the defense done anything other than collapse, when faced with a top passing QB. Not once.

 

If the defense had some good postseason games against Mahomes and Burrow, as well as some bad games, then I'd feel like we had a shot of winning a Super Bowl if things fell our way. But with the defense experiencing near-total failure every single time it faces a QB like that in the postseason, Super Bowl hopes feel unrealistic.

 

I'm not sticking up for the defense.  They have played poorly.

 

But in a one and done tournament, our offense has not showed up too many times but avoid criticism for some reason.  

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Avisan said:

I presume the delta in offensive scoring and production around the league since 2020 reflect this alleged tremendous increase in WR talent?

 

I believe if you put the 2020 version of Diggs and the 2020 version of Beasley on the field in 2023, they would still be a top receiver pairing.

It's also kind of hard to argue that the other top WR in 2020 (Kelce, Hopkins, Adams, Ridley) wouldn't still be dominant as their 2020 selves in 2023.

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

The Texans playoff game doesn't count because a) Josh was still raw and b) the offense wasn't great (it was before Diggs and Beasley).  The Ravens playoff game was windy as hell.  And as for the AFCCG against the Chefs, if Bass makes that kick like he should have, they would have scored 27 points.

 

Beasley was there in 2019.  I know Allen was raw but 3 points in the second half....

I know it was windy in the Ravens game but I still don't think 10 points is a good performance.  We put up 23 on them in the rain 2 seasons ago against just as good a defense.  We played poorly all game outside of one drive.

 

But should we expect a FG to tie a game when you have the ball deep into Chiefs territory with a chance to win it?  That's a big moment that they didn't step up.

[Avisan]

16 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

So it's kind of a trick statement.  It raises the question "what do you mean by a top 3 WR corps?"

 

If you mean, "had the most top producers at WR":

Diggs was the top WR in the league in 2020.  Top in targets, receptions, yards; second to Davonte Adams and Cole Beasley for catch % in the top 32 WR.

Beasley was just outside the top-20 for yards and receptions - 23 and 21 I think.  
 

One can make an argument for KC that year, with Kelce and Hill, beiong the best receiving corps, then the Bills, then Minn with Jefferson and Theilen.  Carolina with DJ Moore and Chosen would be up there, and Tenn with AJ Brown and Corey Davis would be in the mix.

If by "top 3 receiving corps" you mean "overall talent in the 3-4 receivers on the field", then "Nah".  But there really weren't any dominant Chase-Higgins-Boyd trios that season.

Diggs is literally the only standout talent from our receiver group, the rest were... fine?  This board heavily overrates Beasley, imo.

 

We have players equal to or better than everybody but prime Diggs.  Diggs wasn't a very good playoffs receiver for us, though, so his absence really doesn't concern me that much.