I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, pennstate10 said:

Gotcha. 
So you have no stats on player improvement, translation of college to NFL, reviving lost careers, or likelihood of continuing upward or downward trends. 
 

Thats what I thought. 

 

 

You are welcome to contribute your own stats, Jerry jr.

 

I've made mine repeatedly and you have a search function.  

 

The professionals concur with my opinions.

 

You can get some great odds on gaming sites if you have conviction on guys like MVS and Claypool reviving their careers etc.. 

[Beck Water]

11 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I would argue guys like Claypool or Hamler are equally if not more moldable.  

 

And I would respectfully disagree. 

When a former 2nd round pick who racked up >800 yds his first two years is regarded as such a bad actor that he's traded mid-season from a losing team (which then proceeds to win 7 out of 9 for a winning record), then repeats with his new team to the point where he's ordered to stay away from the facility, then barely contributes to his 3rd team offensively - what exactly leads you to regard that as moldable?

 

When a guy who has caught passes from 2 of the best QB in football has never rocked higher than a 52% completion, what exactly leads you to regard that as moldable?

 

As for Hamler, he may be moldable 'cuz he basically only played 1 year, but as far as injuries go, if he didn't have bad luck he'd have no luck at all.  Do guys ever turn that around?  It kind of seems to me some guys just can't hold up at the NFL level.

[BADOLBILZ]

45 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Claypool was a 2nd round pick.

MVS was a 5th

 

The thing is, while reclaimation does happen in the NFL (everyone who had "Geno Smith age 32 throws 30 TD and QB Seahawks to Playoffs" on their 2022 Bingo card please stand up), it's far more rare than learning that recent past performance predicts future outcome.

 

So while I'd love to see Claypool return to 2020/2021 60 reception, 860 yd form he had with Big Ben, the reality is, he's been a Hot Mess the last 2 seasons
I'd love to see MVS crack 60% receptions, but the fact is, he's caught passes from two of the best, most accurate QB in the league and has never cracked 45 receptions, 45 ypg, or 55% catch rate - and that's while seeing the field ~60% of the offensive snaps in all but one of his years.

 

The difference between signing these guys or KJ Hamler (another former 2nd round pick, stifled by repeated injuries) vs a rookie is that the rookie is a blank slate and moldable clay.  You don't know what he'll be capable of initially or become capable of.

 

I think that's the difference that disappoints many here.

 

 

I'm not sure @pennstate10 is going to accept "far more rare" as a stat on reclamation projects.    You should get right on that data since you've indicated that you think it's necessary to come to such a conclusion.

 

But there are may things about this WR group that disappoint.   You don't have a projected bottom tier of the league WR corps and not have it be layered.

 

But if they had merely added a WR1.........we aren't having these discussions.   They have a pile of players who are being projected into matchups that do not look favorable.    That perspective changes greatly when you have that difference maker at the top.   Hence,  why they are called difference makers.

[GoBills808]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm not sure @pennstate10 is going to accept "far more rare" as a stat on reclamation projects.    You should get right on that data since you've indicated that you think it's necessary to come to such a conclusion.

 

But there are may things about this WR group that disappoint.   You don't have a projected bottom tier of the league WR corps and not have it be layered.

 

But if they had merely added a WR1.........we aren't having these discussions.   They have a pile of players who are being projected into matchups that do not look favorable.    That perspective changes greatly when you have that difference maker at the top.   Hence,  why they are called difference makers.

And hence why the 'depth' argument really doesn't make sense

 

Quality at the top forces defenses into tougher looks...diluting it just puts lesser talent up against better

[oldmanfan]

16 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

And I would respectfully disagree. 

When a former 2nd round pick who racked up >800 yds his first two years is regarded as such a bad actor that he's traded mid-season from a losing team (which then proceeds to win 7 out of 9 for a winning record), then repeats with his new team to the point where he's ordered to stay away from the facility, then barely contributes to his 3rd team offensively - what exactly leads you to regard that as moldable?

 

When a guy who has caught passes from 2 of the best QB in football has never rocked higher than a 52% completion, what exactly leads you to regard that as moldable?

 

As for Hamler, he may be moldable 'cuz he basically only played 1 year, but as far as injuries go, if he didn't have bad luck he'd have no luck at all.  Do guys ever turn that around?  It kind of seems to me some guys just can't hold up at the NFL level.

If you don’t like them then Shorter is another guy that was drafted around where we supposedly should have double dipped.  If Claypool gets his head screwed on straight I think he can be a solid contributor.  If not then cut him.

 

And again if Beane wants to bring in a guy like say Lamb fine by me.

Edited July 3 by oldmanfan

[34-78-83]

It's safe to say that in order to be successful in '24, the Bills offense will need above average passing game production both from the TE position and out of the backfield to offset the lack of having a #1 WR type match-up problem for their opponents.

[BillsVet]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

If you don’t like them then Shorter is another guy that was drafted around where we supposedly should have double dipped.  If Claypool gets his head screwed on straight I think he can be a solid contributor.  If not then cut him.

 

And again if Beane wants to bring in a guy like say Lamb fine by me.

 

And if I hit on that quick pick down at the convenience store I'll be golden for a month.  Or win the VFW Cash Raffle on Labor Day.  Or, my penny stocks really take off.  

 

Either this is a parody take or you actually believe college disappointment 5 star recruits suddenly figure it out after years of no production.  I can't tell anymore.  

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

And if I hit on that quick pick down at the convenience store I'll be golden for a month.  Or win the VFW Cash Raffle on Labor Day.  Or, my penny stocks really take off.  

 

Either this is a parody take or you actually believe college disappointment 5 star recruits suddenly figure it out after years of no production.  I can't tell anymore.  

This was in response to Einstein’s Dog saying Beane should have double dipped and taken Franklin in the 4 th round.  Well, how is that any different than signing a former 2nd round FA (Claypool) or an MVS, or drafting Shorter last year and seeing what he has this year after being injured last year?

 

Try reading and following the conversation next time.

Edited July 3 by oldmanfan

[GoBills808]

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

If you don’t like them then Shorter is another guy that was drafted around where we supposedly should have double dipped.  If Claypool gets his head screwed on straight I think he can be a solid contributor.  If not then cut him.

 

And again if Beane wants to bring in a guy like say Lamb fine by me.

Oh good it's fine w you if Beane wants to bring in a guy like Lamb😂😂😂

 

I mean he's only one of the best wideouts in the league lol

[3rdand12]

17 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think a lot of it is because the OP specifically mentions WRs.  And for most of us, it is a huge stretch to love this WR group or think it got better.

 

Secondly, we finally have an excellent TE group - probably the best the Bills have ever had, and J Cook is improving rapidly and that is after a pretty good season, along with Shakir improving.   All this offense needed to be among the top, was a top tier WR.   Apparently that is not going to happen.

 

And if the FO knew that a top tier WR wasn't in the cards then double dipping in the deep WR draft would seem to have been the way to go.  That would have been an exciting rebuild with a bright offensive future.

 

So a lot of people are upset, not so much about what we have, but for what could have been.

Agreed about double dipping WRs in draft. I was all about that. 1st and 2nd or move for two seconds who fit/ Size and hands and then speed

 

But I can Not  say with any certainty the bolded does not naturally occur some where into this season. Hopeful sooner than later. Not likely. perhaps

But the Door is not closed already lol

 

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

It's safe to say that in order to be successful in '24, the Bills offense will need above average passing game production both from the TE position and out of the backfield to offset the lack of having a #1 WR type match-up problem for their opponents.

I have said a number of times that the success of the offense will rely on Brady and how his schemes get guys open.  I suspect a big part of that will be using the TEs and RBs more.

Edited July 3 by oldmanfan

[GoBills808]

 

 

Dead serious- do you people actually watch football or just bills games

[oldmanfan]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Oh good it's fine w you if Beane wants to bring in a guy like Lamb😂😂😂

 

I mean he's only one of the best wideouts in the league lol

If Beane decides they need a guy like Lamb go get him.  Fine by me.  I suspect cap considerations and such will prevent that but if he makes a move such as that great.  We will all applaud it.

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

 

 

Dead serious- do you people actually watch football or just bills games

Everyone watches football.  We all know we are not as brilliant as you but we still like to participate in the dialog.

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

The first two para's are all fair points.  I agree and have posted, that at this point we may see some potential in the WR group, but thinking it got better needs to be stamped "not proven" in big letters until we see it in action.

 

As far as the "double dipping", though - Beane had a bunch of holes on the team as well as places where he has been plugging in FA, such as DL

He also has several late-round or UDFA developmental guys and a couple of former 2nd round FA who have been dogged with injuries. 

 

Did we want Beane to pass up the chance to draft Bishop, Carter, Davis, and Van Pran? 

Or did we want Beane to "double dip" in the late rounds?  Perhaps he felt the late-round receivers were not likely to make the team over the guys we already had on the roster?

 

One does not preclude the other , does it

But to answer ? YES

Give Allen ALL the weapons and figure out the rest after.

 

[BillsVet]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

This was in response to EinsteinVet saying Beane should have double dipped and taken Franklin in the 4 th round.  Well, how is that any different than signing a former 2nd round FA (Claypool) or an MVS, or drafting Shorter last year and seeing what he has this year after being injured last year.

 

Try reading and following the conversation next time.

 

Your draft status doesn't mean squat 5 years down the road.  It earns zero credit when you become a street free agent signing.  Absolutely zero.  And signing an incentive laden contract after playing in KC isn't the big win you point it out to be.  MVS barely average 2 catches per game last year and was among the lowest catch rate in the NFL - playing with Patrick Mahomes.  

 

I pointed out that Shorter was a big disappointment former 5 star recruit.  You didn't know that before posting, nor that he averaged about 2 catches and 32 yards per game in about 4 college seasons.  

 

These are clown takes bro.  

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

I would argue guys like Claypool or Hamler are equally if not more moldable.  

Coaching Matters !

[oldmanfan]

7 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Your draft status doesn't mean squat 5 years down the road.  It earns zero credit when you become a street free agent signing.  Absolutely zero.  And signing an incentive laden contract after playing in KC isn't the big win you point it out to be.  MVS barely average 2 catches per game last year and was among the lowest catch rate in the NFL - playing with Patrick Mahomes.  

 

I pointed out that Shorter was a big disappointment former 5 star recruit.  You didn't know that before posting, nor that he averaged about 2 catches and 32 yards per game in about 4 college seasons.  

 

These are clown takes bro.  

Again try reading.  My comment was specifically in response to a take that we should have double dipped and taken a chance on Franklin in the 4th.  How is that different than already having a guy from the 5th last year?  It’s not.

 

Believing Franklin in the 4th (after he dropped a few rounds over projection) was an answer, while discounting other guys taken those rounds that are on the roster, is just silly.

 

Seems to me Samuel, Shakir, and Coleman will be the first 3 guys on the field.  Who the 4th guy would be probably won’t make a ton of difference unless a guy like Claypool gets his head out of his butt, or MVS shows up.

Edited July 3 by oldmanfan

[3rdand12]

31 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

And hence why the 'depth' argument really doesn't make sense

 

Quality at the top forces defenses into tougher looks...diluting it just puts lesser talent up against better

Not for nothing , and its really nothing though lol

I have heard the Chefs won games with a mixed bag at WR excepting Kelce , after letting their top guys go to FA

 is part of that true at least ?

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

 

Dead serious- do you people actually watch football or just bills games

Serious

Just Bills games , and not all of them anymore

 Because work VS primetime games dont jibe : )
But i sure do read alot !

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Coaching Matters !

The success of the offense is on Brady more than anyone.

[FireChans]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Again try reading.  My comment was specifically in response to a take that we should have double dipped and taken a chance on Franklin in the 4th.  How is that different than already having a guy from the 5th last year?  It’s not.

 

Believing Franklin in the 4th (after he dropped a few rounds over projection) was an answer, while discounting other guys taken those rounds that are on the roster, is just silly.

FWIW

 

Troy Franklin was given a prospect grade of 6.35 by NFL.com and an 84 by their Next Gen Stats.

 

Justin Shorter was given a 6.12 and 54 by their Next Gen Stats.