I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Eastport bills said:

If we are lining up 4 or 5 receivers in the formation and Cook in the backfield with Allen, the defense has to account for Allen and Cook and only one of the single covered players has to win their battle. Why are you afraid of single coverage against Shakir, Samuel or Kincaid. Mismatch heaven with Cook and if Davis and Cook can cause heavy boxes, Allen will pick secondaries apart. Remember, we were able to win 6 of seven without Diggs averaging 50 or 60 yards and he wasn’t being doubled in most of those games and Davis did nothing. We have better depth at receiver this year.

We should line up 6 WR’s, 2 TE’s and 2 RB’s. The 11 guys playing defense can’t cover of all them

[Richard Noggin]

8 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

…with every single guy experiencing more defensive attention than they have in their careers. Expect less space and better players to be across from you.

If Diggs was commanding all of the attention, it’s getting pushed to a bunch of guys with less talent than Diggs. That’s really not debatable.

 

That "If" is doing a lot of work. We liked to imagine that Diggs was drawing all kinds of brackets and doubles, but most of his playoff disappearances, for example, seemed to coincide with physical man coverage to disrupt him early and get Josh's eyes off him, with the defensive hope that the pass rush speeds up the processing. Sure, he faced some extra attention at times, but mostly he got locked up by #1 corners.

 

8 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

You should read up on some Greg Cosell stuff.  I think he’s the guy who said Diggs wasn’t a Tier 1 guy last year.  So it is somewhat debatable.

 

This group will succeed or fail based on Brady’s schemes to get them open.

 

Diggs was elite Tier 1 for the first 6 games. Like silly production. Then he fell off HARD. Happened each of the last two seasons, as we all well know. So why was he a guy NOT to subtract at his suddenly bloated salary (I know how much they're eating this year)? (Not even delving into the sideline/locker room/social media stuff, or the prevailing subtext that Diggs finally, directly asked to be moved.) 

[BullBuchanan]

9 hours ago, NewEra said:

Lee Evans would’ve been the best WR on the last 2 Super Bowl championship teams too.  

Cool. What does that have to do with anything? KC has unique advantages that let them win super bowls with weak WRs, much like the early 2000 patriots. We, very obviously, do not.

Until we wake up one day and have one of the top 2 coaches, QBs, and TEs to ever play the game, comparing how our team is built to theirs is beyond meaningless.

[oldmanfan]

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

That "If" is doing a lot of work. We liked to imagine that Diggs was drawing all kinds of brackets and doubles, but most of his playoff disappearances, for example, seemed to coincide with physical man coverage to disrupt him early and get Josh's eyes off him, with the defensive hope that the pass rush speeds up the processing. Sure, he faced some extra attention at times, but mostly he got locked up by #1 corners.

 

 

Diggs was elite Tier 1 for the first 6 games. Like silly production. Then he fell off HARD. Happened each of the last two seasons, as we all well know. So why was he a guy NOT to subtract at his suddenly bloated salary (I know how much they're eating this year)? (Not even delving into the sideline/locker room/social media stuff, or the prevailing subtext that Diggs finally, directly asked to be moved.) 

My guess is Josh and the coaches had had enough of Diggs’ complaints and stuff so they moved him.  I can’t imagine Beane  does that without Josh agreeing.

[Bill from NYC]

18 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Beane didn't "more or less" say Coleman was going to be the X, he flat out said we see him as our X.  However, as OTAs progress and the Coleman hype train gathers momentum, it's been notable that Beane has been trying to "manage expectations", talking about how young he is (I had Edmunds flashbacks), "he’s going to have bumps in the road. He’s a rookie, and I think we all need to understand that."  I believe he's also said some stuff about having other guys in the room who can do it if the rookies can't right away.

 

I think there are two separate issues perhaps being conflated a bit here.  One is Beane/McDermott's expectations: yes, they expect Coleman to play, but Beane is also giving off vibes he's not going out there for a lion's share of the snaps no matter what, he's got to master the playbook and earn his playing time.  I don't think he's hyping him as Diggs successor.  Instead Brady is talking about spreading the ball around.

 

You speak a lot about Beane's expectations.

 

Do you seriously believe that Beane will have any say in the amount of playing time that Coleman will see? 

 

I mean really.

 

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Cool. What does that have to do with anything? KC has unique advantages that let them win super bowls with weak WRs, much like the early 2000 patriots. We, very obviously, do not.

Until we wake up one day and have one of the top 2 coaches, QBs, and TEs to ever play the game, comparing how our team is built to theirs is beyond meaningless.

everything is meaningless when it doesn’t agree with your narrative 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

You speak a lot about Beane's expectations.

 

Do you seriously believe that Beane will have any say in the amount of playing time that Coleman will see? 

 

I mean really.

 

 

They have those conversations before the season about their developments plans for rookies and Beane is in those meetings with Sean, Coordinators and position coaches and I am led to believe has a voice in them too. But there is an old phrase - even the best laid plans rarely survive first contact with the enemy. And once they are into the swing of the season he would, rightly, step back from that and it would be for the staff. So let's say they agree that Coleman will play 60-70% of the outside snaps (health allowing) through 8 weeks and then they will ramp him up.... but then they lose MVS and Samuel to injuries in the first 4 weeks.... at that point Coleman's snaps go up and McDermott and co abd not checking in with Beane on that. Equally if he was getting his 60-70% but running wrong routes and dropping balls and they decided to dial him back that would be a cosches decision.

[Kirby Jackson]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

That "If" is doing a lot of work. We liked to imagine that Diggs was drawing all kinds of brackets and doubles, but most of his playoff disappearances, for example, seemed to coincide with physical man coverage to disrupt him early and get Josh's eyes off him, with the defensive hope that the pass rush speeds up the processing. Sure, he faced some extra attention at times, but mostly he got locked up by #1 corners.

The point remains, who’s getting that number 1 corner now? The answer is “someone that’s never seen them with less ability than Diggs.” It’s just a part of the equation that some want to avoid. 

[JerseyBills]

4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Cool. What does that have to do with anything? KC has unique advantages that let them win super bowls with weak WRs, much like the early 2000 patriots. We, very obviously, do not.

Until we wake up one day and have one of the top 2 coaches, QBs, and TEs to ever play the game, comparing how our team is built to theirs is beyond meaningless.

Their run game was actually the key to this SB, including our gm. We have a potential top 3 -5 TE and a top 20 TE and finally a legit run game , elite RB and improved rb room. We have a top 2 QB and elite coach. 

We have a potentially dynamic rookie WR and 2 studs (imo) in Shakir and Samuel. Diggs saw plenty 1 v 1 coverage. Gabe was banged up alot as well w Harty/Sherfield basically useless..

Just imagine we swap MVS w Sherfield in our game. We def win. MVS makes 2 big time catches and KC doesn't 

 

This is much deeper group, they got exposed with Gabe out in the playoffs and still should've put up 30 + and Beane addressed it beautifully. 

Best , most complete offense in Allens career

 

26 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The point remains, who’s getting that number 1 corner now? The answer is “someone that’s never seen them with less ability than Diggs.” It’s just a part of the equation that some want to avoid. 

Shakir scored the only TD on Sneed all year. Our WRs will be fine. Plus they have multiple stud cbs to practice with 

Edited June 30 by JerseyBills

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

You speak a lot about Beane's expectations.

 

Do you seriously believe that Beane will have any say in the amount of playing time that Coleman will see? 

 

I mean really.

 

 

The phrase "manage expectations" in the business world refers to the expectations of others that the writer is trying to manage.  Saying "Beane has been trying to manage expectations" is not referring to Beane's expectations.  It's the expectations of people listening to his interview - the fans - I'm talking about.

 

In interviews since OTAs, Beane is clearly trying to temper the Coleman Hype Train that has left Highmark station and gathered speed, driven in part by the PR apparatus of the organization he works for (as shown by the $40 shirt @BADOLBILZ observed), in the probably vain hope that the fans won't toss around the "bust" word if Coleman doesn't produce 4-5 R/G for 50 Y/G right out the gate.  Whether that's on general principal, or whether it's because having seen Coleman in the building trying to run their plays he now knows it's gonna be a project, can't tell ya.

 

Since you ask, my opinion of Beane's personal expectations for how much Coleman will play: I think Beane expects him to play A Lot.  Beane has influence on the amount of playing time Coleman will see in the form of the alternatives he signs at WR and thus makes available to the coaches.  The WR cupboard is pretty bare, so the pressure is "on" the coaches to put Coleman out on the field, ready or not.

Beane also knows that overall, his "hit rate" on players drafted in the 1st 2 rounds making a solid contribution their rookie year is a bit over 50%, even when the player develops into a solid contributor by year 2 or 3.  That's about league average or a little less, but for a different reason.  For many teams, it's because the guy can't adjust to play at the NFL level or doesn't have his head in the right place once he Gets Paid.  For Beane, it's because he tries to compensate for late draft position by gambling on high-ceiling low-floor kind of guys, guys like Rousseau or Coleman who have lots of physical talent but actually rather limited football playing experience.

 

  

 

Edited June 30 by Beck Water

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The point remains, who’s getting that number 1 corner now? The answer is “someone that’s never seen them with less ability than Diggs.” It’s just a part of the equation that some want to avoid. 

 

How these receivers match-up just seems to be lost on so many fans.

 

People cite Curtis Samuel's season with Brady...........he was the 3rd WR on that team getting favorable CB matchups all season.   Similar situation in Washington.    

 

He's likely getting Sauce and Christian Gonzalez 4 times this year.   I don't care what his record of getting open against man coverage is against 3rd CB's if he's going up against stud CB1's.        

 

And if Samuel proves not worthy of CB1 attention they might throw it on Kincaid or Shakir.    The outlook for maintaining or improving the passing attack is not good.

 

Which is why we have to assume that this is going to have to be a heavy 12 personnel team that tries to run the ball more than league average,   use Allen's legs to keep chains moving and get across goal lines,  and shorten games for the defense.

[BADOLBILZ]

16 hours ago, FireChans said:

We should line up 6 WR’s, 2 TE’s and 2 RB’s. The 11 guys playing defense can’t cover of all them

 

Yeah sorry @Eastport bills.........your math is a lot fuzzy.    5 receivers plus Cook is 12 players.  It's not the CFL.  

 

The reality is that in 11 personnel there will be 3 WR and in 12 there will be just 2 WR.    If they use Gilliam(21 or 22) that's even more 2 WR sets.  

 

So the perceived "depth" of this group isn't a force multiplier it's some dudes that probably won't see the field unless the guys in front of them are ineffective or get injured.  

 

That is the mindset though.   Even @NewEra is championing the "depth" of the group.   We should know better.   You judge your WR room by the quality of the top 3(moreso the top 2).   Beyond that you hope they have a dynamic punt or kick returner in the bottom 3.  

 

Nope and nope.

[without a drought]

If they all get 600 yards, Josh is looking at 6,000 or maybe even 7,200 yards.

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

That "If" is doing a lot of work. We liked to imagine that Diggs was drawing all kinds of brackets and doubles, but most of his playoff disappearances, for example, seemed to coincide with physical man coverage to disrupt him early and get Josh's eyes off him, with the defensive hope that the pass rush speeds up the processing. Sure, he faced some extra attention at times, but mostly he got locked up by #1 corners.

 

This is a point worth delving into.  I'd love to see some data on how Diggs was covered the last 2 seasons, especially in the 2nd half of the year and the playoffs.

 

There's no question in 2020 and 2021 Diggs drew double coverage and sometimes more.

 

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

And if Samuel proves not worthy of CB1 attention they might throw it on Kincaid or Shakir.    The outlook for maintaining or improving the passing attack is not good.

 

Which is why we have to assume that this is going to have to be a heavy 12 personnel team that tries to run the ball more than league average,   use Allen's legs to keep chains moving and get across goal lines,  and shorten games for the defense.

Another potential problem is with no top tier WR the defense can switch who a top CB1 can cover, like Sauce could cover Samuel on one play and Kincaid on another making it harder for the offense to scheme plays.

 

For me a disappointing and frustrating part of this off-season is coming to terms with your last paragraph.  It appears the Beane/McD/Brady combo adopted this run more, move the chains thing, as the new 2024 strategy.   

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Another potential problem is with no top tier WR the defense can switch who a top CB1 can cover, like Sauce could cover Samuel on one play and Kincaid on another making it harder for the offense to scheme plays.

 

For me a disappointing and frustrating part of this off-season is coming to terms with your last paragraph.  It appears the Beane/McD/Brady combo adopted this run more, move the chains thing, as the new 2024 strategy.   

 

Defensive coordinators have a tendency to surprise us.

 

Putting CB1 on Davis and bracketing Diggs in 2022 was a surprise that served to halt the Gabe Davis train.

[Mikey152]

On 6/29/2024 at 1:20 PM, BullBuchanan said:

So, this post is all about you talking umbrage with my use of the word "pedigree"?

Fine, I'll rephrase. Lee Evans would be the best WR on the 2024 roster.

He would also represent our highest pick since 2019. 

[Eastport bills]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah sorry @Eastport bills.........your math is a lot fuzzy.    5 receivers plus Cook is 12 players.  It's not the CFL.  

 

The reality is that in 11 personnel there will be 3 WR and in 12 there will be just 2 WR.    If they use Gilliam(21 or 22) that's even more 2 WR sets.  

 

So the perceived "depth" of this group isn't a force multiplier it's some dudes that probably won't see the field unless the guys in front of them are ineffective or get injured.  

 

That is the mindset though.   Even @NewEra is championing the "depth" of the group.   We should know better.   You judge your WR room by the quality of the top 3(moreso the top 2).   Beyond that you hope they have a dynamic punt or kick returner in the bottom 3.  

 

Nope and nope.

OK, if they line up with a TE and 3 wide along with 5 on the OLine, that’s 9 along with Cook and Allen. I said 4 or 5 receivers in my post. Naturally with 5 receivers Allen would be empty formation. My point is still if all these receivers and Cook get single coverage and Allen has to be accounted for, there is going to be a few mismatches. That makes this receiver group more dangerous. Diggs and Davis were not the reason we turned the season around. It was Shakir, Kincaid and Cook. Substitute Coleman and Samuel for Harty and Sherfield and compare.

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

OK, if they line up with a TE and 3 wide along with 5 on the OLine, that’s 9 along with Cook and Allen. I said 4 or 5 receivers in my post. Naturally with 5 receivers Allen would be empty formation. My point is still if all these receivers and Cook get single coverage and Allen has to be accounted for, there is going to be a few mismatches. That makes this receiver group more dangerous. Diggs and Davis were not the reason we turned the season around. It was Shakir, Kincaid and Cook. Substitute Coleman and Samuel for Harty and Sherfield and compare.

 

We are officially at the point of the offseason when someone thinks more receivers on field = more dangerous.

 

The least explosive offense in football is 5 wide.   Dink and dunk garbage.

 

4 wide?   They better be damn good receivers(which the Bills don't have) because the defensive line can play the run on the way to the QB.

 

The most effective passing formation in the recent NFL is 1 RB 2 TE = 12 personnel.  

 

The Bills seem to be counting on being a heavy 12 because their WR corps is a couple WR3's,  a rookie who didn't produce in college and a bunch of dumpster dives.

 

The Bills problem is that unless a defense respects the possibility of 11 personnel and field stretching WR's.........they can game plan around having their ideal personnel to match up with 12 and choke out the short to intermediate areas.

 

Which is why to expect more run game,  more clock burning and more of Josh Allen being used like a battering ram in the run game.

 

[BullBuchanan]

9 hours ago, NewEra said:

everything is meaningless when it doesn’t agree with your narrative 

I guess you're just hellbent on having a bad take here. Well, I won't get in your way anymore. Enjoy.