I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Mikey152]

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That 2017 group they broke camp with was gross.

 

But this WR group they have now is bottom 3 in the NFL and I'm not sure even the 2017 season opener Bills WR corps ranked that low.

 

To put it in perspective.......Jordan Matthews had played 46 of 48 career games.......his 3 year average was 58 yards per game......which projects to 986 yards per season in a 17 game season.   

 

I hated his skillset but you were probably one of those shouting me down about it that summer. 

 

But regardless........the Bills have nothing anywhere close to 58 yards per game career now.

 

Curtis Samuel is WR1 and averaged a relatively meager 38 yards per game the last two years and missed most of 2021.

 

Zay Jones?  4th WR off the board.   Coleman?  8th.

 

So it's debatable and after they picked up Benjamin they had acquired a guy who was on a 1,000 yard type pace that season.

 

Keep in mind though,  that 2017 was a real low point for receiving talent around the NFL.

 

After two terrible WR drafts in 2015-2016 only 15 players total accumulated 1,000 yards receiving.

 

Most years recently before and since that the numbers have been in the low to high 20's each season.

 

From 2018 to 2024 it's been one tremendous WR class after the next.

 

The QB position is A LOT deeper too.  

 

So now you need A LOT more talent at the top of your WR corps to measure up.

 

And here I thought you aren't allowed to extrapolate rates...

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

So you think 2024 is better than 2017 and 2018?   Do you even think it’s debatable?

 

On 2018, no. I think there is a debate on 2017 and relevant to the 2017 conversation is that at this point of that offseason we still had Sammy. So if I'm comparing how I feel a few weeks out from camp to how I have felt at the same point in other years I'd have felt better in 2017. 

 

The reason 2017 (eventual roster) and 2024 (if this is the group of WRs by the time the season begins) is closer matched to me is that Jordan Matthews had averaged 890 yards in his three seasons in Philly. There is nobody with that level of consistent production on this roster. I think they probably have more guys with some history of production now than they had week 1 in 2017..... and I do think Samuel > Matthews talent wise even if he hasn't got the proven production. So I'd have this group just ahead of 2017 but I do think that one is more debatable than 2018. 

[BADOLBILZ]

35 minutes ago, NewEra said:

i value your opinion of players?

 

 

It's pretty easy to search the Matthews trade thread.   FWIW he liked the Matthews trade.   Which sparked a debate with @dave mcbride.  A lot of people liked Matthews because his numbers were legit bottom-third of league WR1 average over his 3 year career.   And they also got a 3rd round pick in the deal(which even more people loved because they were just CERTAIN....and dead wrong......that the Bills were tanking).  

 

And people were high as a kite for Zay Jones coming off a 158 reception 1746 yard senior season at East Carolina.   He was a post-season draft process superstar as well.  

 

Your perception is clouded by hindsight.

 

Nobody thought the 2017 Bills WR corps was good but a lot of people felt you didn't need a WR1 back in those days.    That's not the case anymore..........we know how important WR talent is in the current NFL.........though some Bills fans have tried to re-frame that now that we don't have a WR1. 

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

And here I thought you aren't allowed to extrapolate rates...

 

 

Matthews had played 46 of 48 career games.   So having played 96% of his teams games he had averaged 58 yards per game.   There wasn't any extrapolating to do.   I was just pointing out that the league plays 17 games now.....not 16 like back then.   And he did that as WR1 for the Eagles in 2015 and 2016.   Facing the opponents best CB's.

 

You were extrapolating a small, cherry picked sample size as a 3rd or 4th option in the passing game and ignoring the larger portion of his career.   The reality is that Shakir's career production is just 24.9 yards per game.   Even last year it was just 35.9.   And with Diggs and Davis gone.........there is a likelihood that Shakir draws tougher CB matchups now as well.    

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On 2018, no. I think there is a debate on 2017 and relevant to the 2017 conversation is that at this point of that offseason we still had Sammy. So if I'm comparing how I feel a few weeks out from camp to how I have felt at the same point in other years I'd have felt better in 2017. 

 

The reason 2017 (eventual roster) and 2024 (if this is the group of WRs by the time the season begins) is closer matched to me is that Jordan Matthews had averaged 890 yards in his three seasons in Philly. There is nobody with that level of consistent production on this roster. I think they probably have more guys with some history of production now than they had week 1 in 2017..... and I do think Samuel > Matthews talent wise even if he hasn't got the proven production. So I'd have this group just ahead of 2017 but I do think that one is more debatable than 2018. 

Ok- so 18 is definitely worse and 17 is a debate-  I’ll get back to this after work, walking in right now.  
 

 

 

[Mikey152]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Matthews had played 46 of 48 career games.   So having played 96% of his teams games he had averaged 58 yards per game.   There wasn't any extrapolating to do.   I was just pointing out that the league plays 17 games now.....not 16 like back then.   And he did that as WR1 for the Eagles in 2015 and 2016.   Facing the opponents best CB's.

 

You were extrapolating a small, cherry picked sample size as a 3rd or 4th option in the passing game and ignoring the larger portion of his career.   The reality is that Shakir's career production is just 24.9 yards per game.   Even last year it was just 35.9.   And with Diggs and Davis gone.........there is a likelihood that Shakir draws tougher CB matchups now as well.    

First, I was talking about Curtis Samuel, not Shakir.

 

Second, I wasn't "cherry picking" I was using his lone season working with Joe Brady. I even accounted for regression. honestly, It wasn't even really about Samuel (or Shakir), it's more about Diggs. Two of his 4 seasons in Buffalo he had a YPT at or below 7.5. That is not good for an outside receiver, and it is REALLY not good for a guy you are targeting 160 times. 

 

Was Diggs 2020 awesome? Yes. Was his 2022, after he rededicated himself and gained some muscle in the wake of 13 seconds almost as good?  Yes. But 2021 and definitely 2023...not as much. He got top 10 in the NFL targets and returned top 50 production. To act like Curtis Samuel couldn't do something like that with that many targets is just silly.

 

The reason the responses in this thread bothered me is because most of them talked about how Samuel "isn't talented" or "isn't in the same league" but that's just ridiculous. Unproven, injury prone, whatever...I get those arguments. But while opportunity and talent are often correlated, there isn't always a causal relationship there. In fact, that has ALWAYS been the deal when it comes to Curtis Samuel. Several OCs, bad QBs, several young WR in the room, bad injury timing. 

 

All I am saying is, his production to this point is not a true indicator of who he is...all you have to do is watch him play to see that. Go to a Panther or Commander board and ask about him.

 

As for Matthews...his YPT were TRASH. And can we please stop with the "he was #1 so he got the #1 corner" like that is a thing? Most teams don't have their corners follow guys these days, and lots of "#1" receivers get snaps out of the slot. 

Edited June 28 by Mikey152

[Mikey152]

46 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's pretty easy to search the Matthews trade thread.   FWIW he liked the Matthews trade.   Which sparked a debate with @dave mcbride.  A lot of people liked Matthews because his numbers were legit bottom-third of league WR1 average over his 3 year career.   And they also got a 3rd round pick in the deal(which even more people loved because they were just CERTAIN....and dead wrong......that the Bills were tanking).  

 

And people were high as a kite for Zay Jones coming off a 158 reception 1746 yard senior season at East Carolina.   He was a post-season draft process superstar as well.  

 

Your perception is clouded by hindsight.

 

Nobody thought the 2017 Bills WR corps was good but a lot of people felt you didn't need a WR1 back in those days.    That's not the case anymore..........we know how important WR talent is in the current NFL.........though some Bills fans have tried to re-frame that now that we don't have a WR1. 

We don't have a proven #1

 

We also don't have any guys that have gotten #1 targets. Your argument might be that they've never been good enough to earn those targets, but Im not sure I agree. There was a point in time where Chase Claypool was the next big thing. At 6'4 240 with a 4.4 40 and 40 inch vertical, he is a freak athlete. 

 

Ive already discussed Samuel on here. Shakir led the NFL in efficiency last season, and only got better with more targets at the end of the season. Coleman is super young and was a two sport athlete at Michigan freaking state. Like, a point guard for a team that competes for national championships...and we make fun of his athleticism and call him a "big slot" which is just code for slow.

 

What this all really comes down to, IMO, is trust. Bills fans on this board don't trust the GM and they don't trust the coaches. Especially at WR. So the glass is half empty.

Edited June 28 by Mikey152

[FireChans]

59 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's pretty easy to search the Matthews trade thread.   FWIW he liked the Matthews trade.   Which sparked a debate with @dave mcbride.  A lot of people liked Matthews because his numbers were legit bottom-third of league WR1 average over his 3 year career.   And they also got a 3rd round pick in the deal(which even more people loved because they were just CERTAIN....and dead wrong......that the Bills were tanking).  

 

And people were high as a kite for Zay Jones coming off a 158 reception 1746 yard senior season at East Carolina.   He was a post-season draft process superstar as well.  

 

Your perception is clouded by hindsight.

 

Nobody thought the 2017 Bills WR corps was good but a lot of people felt you didn't need a WR1 back in those days.    That's not the case anymore..........we know how important WR talent is in the current NFL.........though some Bills fans have tried to re-frame that now that we don't have a WR1. 

Quote from 2017 trades thread:

 

“Yea but Beane isn't "throwing in the towel" for the season. Don't forget he just signed Anquain Boldin!

 

He actually said that”

 

this is like word for word what Beane said about signing Quintus Cepheus immediately after the draft lol

 

Beane went back to the 2017 well of getting older, slower and worse at WR. Hell yeah

Edited June 28 by FireChans

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And Zay did adjust. And he has had himself a reasonable career. That wasn't the question though. What we had seen in 2017 was pretty clear what his ceiling was - if he could sort his issues out he was going to be a solid enough possession receiver and chain mover. Even if he had fully sorted the hands that was the type of player he was and is (2018 was actually his 2nd best career year by yards and a career year by touchdowns). So it was obvious by year 2 he wasn't going to be a #1 receiver. When it is pretty apparent going into a season that a 2nd year player of that type is your best receiver (and Zay was our best receiver in 2018) you are in trouble. 

 

Our receiver room going into 2024 is certainly less than stellar. But going into 2018 it was a disaster.

 

I guess my point is...

 

OK, tell the truth...what did you think of Terrel Bernard when he played for Milano in the 11-6-20 close loss to the Jets?  I had an opinion based on that, and never in 1000 years did I expect what we saw from him last season.

 

There's also Shakir, I thought he took a huge step last season.

You do You, but professional scouts and coaches watching a player in his rookie year may be totally mistaken about what his ceiling is, so, if you are so clear on that from one season of a player....should you be?

No argument at all that the WR going into 2018 was putrid (and 2017 was no better for that matter) , but of course the idea in 2017 was to run the wheels off McCoy and dump off to Charles Clay, and I think McDermott and Beane's expectation going into 2018 was similar.  The problem, of course, was 1) the OL was much worse and couldn't run block worth *****, and 2) that apparently wasn't Daboll's idea

[Mikey152]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I guess my point is...

 

OK, tell the truth...what did you think of Terrel Bernard when he played for Milano in the 11-6-20 close loss to the Jets?  I had an opinion based on that, and never in 1000 years did I expect what we saw from him last season.

 

There's also Shakir, I thought he took a huge step last season.

You do You, but professional scouts and coaches watching a player in his rookie year may be totally mistaken about what his ceiling is, so, if you are so clear on that from one season of a player....should you be?

No argument at all that the WR going into 2018 was putrid (and 2017 was no better for that matter) , but of course the idea in 2017 was to run the wheels off McCoy and dump off to Charles Clay, and I think McDermott and Beane's expectation going into 2018 was similar.  The problem, of course, was 1) the OL was much worse and couldn't run block worth *****, and 2) that apparently wasn't Daboll's idea

 

That's the real problem, here...Bills fans don't trust the Admin, so they assume the worst. Just like at LB last year.

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

That's the real problem, here...Bills fans don't trust the Admin, so they assume the worst. Just like at LB last year.

We have seen this movie before IRT WR. Why should we trust this 5 dimes is better than 2 quarters approach? 

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We have seen this movie before IRT WR. Why should we trust this 5 dimes is better than 2 quarters approach? 

At a dime a dozen wouldn’t that mean we have SIXTY receivers on the roster. That's crazy!

[Beck Water]

22 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

What this all really comes down to, IMO, is trust. Bills fans on this board don't trust the GM and they don't trust the coaches. Especially at WR. So the glass is half empty.

 

I think that's actually a fair assessment.  And then it's fair to ask "why do the Bills fans on this board not trust the GM and coaches?"

 

Different folks probably have different answers.  Some just don't trust them globally, either never have or 13 seconds did it.

 

My basis for lack of trust is, I don't trust them because based on results,

1) they didn't do enough to replace Brown/Sanders and Beasley in 2022 and 2023 

2) the OL in 2018 was totally inadequate, and Beane acknowledged after the season that he was cap-strapped but "could have done more and should have done more"

3) same for WR corps in 2017 after we moved on from Woods, Goodwin, and Watkins - I understand moving on from that little robber Goodwin and from Watkins, but a 2nd round draft pick in 2017 and then a 6th rounder in 2018 was simply not enough along with some geriatric FA signings like Anquan Boldin and Andre Holmes and don't get me started on Corey Coleman or Terrele Pryor.

 

In short, the FO and coaches have lost my trust as a fan where WR is concerned based on past history of trying to sell fans inadequate investment and underperforming players as sufficient at that position.

 

I concede that there is potential in the room as far as two homegrown players who took a big step last season and may be capable of another (Kincaid and Shakir), a player who has contributed to SB teams (MVS), a player who turned in back to back decent seasons with Big Ben throwing to him and Diontae Johnson ahead of him but has mucked up his career with his head (Claypool), a 2nd round rookie who has a high ceiling but is raw, and a solid NFL-level slot in Samuel.

 

But it's all "perhaps...perhaps...perhaps"  as Doris Day said.

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I guess my point is...

 

OK, tell the truth...what did you think of Terrel Bernard when he played for Milano in the 11-6-20 close loss to the Jets?  I had an opinion based on that, and never in 1000 years did I expect what we saw from him last season.

 

There's also Shakir, I thought he took a huge step last season.

You do You, but professional scouts and coaches watching a player in his rookie year may be totally mistaken about what his ceiling is, so, if you are so clear on that from one season of a player....should you be?

No argument at all that the WR going into 2018 was putrid (and 2017 was no better for that matter) , but of course the idea in 2017 was to run the wheels off McCoy and dump off to Charles Clay, and I think McDermott and Beane's expectation going into 2018 was similar.  The problem, of course, was 1) the OL was much worse and couldn't run block worth *****, and 2) that apparently wasn't Daboll's idea

 

Yes I didn't think Bernard was very good when he played in 2022. But I think you slightly miss the point. Scouts, coaches everyone underestimate and over estimate what players can turn into but players don't go from being one type of player to a completely different type of player from one year to the next typically. So he wasn't going to go from possession receiver to downfield gamebreaker. Hence he wasn't it. It is not me saying he wouldn't get better than he was in 2017. It is me saying I could see the type of player he was. This is the first time since then I don't immediately see that true outside, downfield receiver that is going to consistently win his matchups. That receiving corps didn't have it. Or does this one, though I think this one overall has more talent than 2018 did.

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's pretty easy to search the Matthews trade thread.   FWIW he liked the Matthews trade.   Which sparked a debate with @dave mcbride.  A lot of people liked Matthews because his numbers were legit bottom-third of league WR1 average over his 3 year career.   And they also got a 3rd round pick in the deal(which even more people loved because they were just CERTAIN....and dead wrong......that the Bills were tanking).  

 

And people were high as a kite for Zay Jones coming off a 158 reception 1746 yard senior season at East Carolina.   He was a post-season draft process superstar as well.  

 

Your perception is clouded by hindsight.

 

Nobody thought the 2017 Bills WR corps was good but a lot of people felt you didn't need a WR1 back in those days.    That's not the case anymore..........we know how important WR talent is in the current NFL.........though some Bills fans have tried to re-frame that now that we don't have a WR1. 

Or I could just ask him and save myself some of my time on earth.  Going back and looking at those types of threads is your thing-  enjoy those minutes

 

no-  my perception isn’t clouded in the least.  When we had Sammy this time of year-  you’re right- I thought we would be ok drafting Zay to replace Bob.  Then we traded Sammy- and I wasn’t happy about it.  I wasn’t happy with our WR corp.  I thought getting Matthew’s made some sense and that he could be a nice player- but nowhere near Sammy.  I was not a fan of Tate.  I hated clay.  I laughed at Webb. I thought Holmes was similar to Hollins.  I thought our depth was putrid.  It was-  it also proved to be just that.  God awful- we needed deonte and Benjamin to bail us out.  
 

statistics don’t determine my thoughts on players and WR units.  Statistics are often a a result of situations, play calling, coaching, rosters, teams success etc.  i look at the stats and weigh them with my player evaluation's.  Matthew’s was WR1- his WR2 was Riley cooper and 3 was rookie Nelson agholor.  He was the only WR option, stats are inevitable stats.  
 

I view this teams WR depth as much better than 17 and 18.  Maybe our number 1 in 24 doesn’t have the stats that Matthew’s did, but I think Samuel is a better player.  Apparently I’m not the only one.  
 

but cool-  you think think unit is worse-  

we can discuss after the season

 

 

[Don Otreply]

7 hours ago, eball said:

 

Good lord, some of you just like to worry.

 

Some folk go out of their way to come up with all sorts of nonsense to worry about, when it is so obvious that we were up against the cap, and that’s it.  Tre had to go, Morse had to go, Von is to expensive to be released presently, Davis was perennially injured, and Mr two TDs in nine playoff games was mentally already out the door, it’s getting to the point that the tin foil hats are starting to show up, now it’s…, “we got the new stadium, so we aren’t gonna try so hard anymore” it’s comical really, oh well, what are ya gonna do…,

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Or I could just ask him and save myself some of my time on earth.  Going back and looking at those types of threads is your thing-  enjoy those minutes

 

no-  my perception isn’t clouded in the least.  When we had Sammy this time of year-  you’re right- I thought we would be ok drafting Zay to replace Bob.  Then we traded Sammy- and I wasn’t happy about it.  I wasn’t happy with our WR corp.  I thought getting Matthew’s made some sense and that he could be a nice player- but nowhere near Sammy.  I was not a fan of Tate.  I hated clay.  I laughed at Webb. I thought Holmes was similar to Hollins.  I thought our depth was putrid.  It was-  it also proved to be just that.  God awful- we needed deonte and Benjamin to bail us out.  
 

statistics don’t determine my thoughts on players and WR units.  Statistics are often a a result of situations, play calling, coaching, rosters, teams success etc.  i look at the stats and weigh them with my player evaluation's.  Matthew’s was WR1- his WR2 was Riley cooper and 3 was rookie Nelson agholor.  He was the only WR option, stats are inevitable stats.  
 

I view this teams WR depth as much better than 17 and 18.  Maybe our number 1 in 24 doesn’t have the stats that Matthew’s did, but I think Samuel is a better player.  Apparently I’m not the only one.  
 

but cool-  you think think unit is worse-  

we can discuss after the season

 

 

 

 

Like @eball........if you insist on comparing players but refuse to do even the most basic research yourself then you are not a serious person.    I will dignify an argument to a point but you've offered nothing but vaguery so now it's just comedy.    

 

I'd guess that literally nobody wastes more of their time on earth on TSW here than you.    You probably log the most minutes of anyone per year on here.    Definitely a f#ck of a lot more than I.   

 

Claiming otherwise as an excuse to just argue without benefit of facts is just more clownery. 🤡

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Like @eball........if you insist on comparing players but refuse to do even the most basic research yourself then you are not a serious person.    I will dignify an argument to a point but you've offered nothing but vaguery so now it's just comedy.    

 

I'd guess that literally nobody wastes more of their time on earth on TSW here than you.    You probably log the most minutes of anyone per year on here.    Definitely a f#ck of a lot more than I.   

 

Claiming otherwise as an excuse to just argue without benefit of facts is just more clownery. 🤡

 

lol-  yes-  I spend a lot of time here-  that doesn’t mean I’m a fool that would waste his time looking up a thread from 7 years ago and searching through it for a particular members opinion?  This is how you move the goalposts?  😂 

 

I’ve spent enough time here to get the biggest kick out of one thing in particular, you calling people names.  Grown *** man constantly calling other grown men and women names as if it hurts their feelings.  

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

[NewEra]

On 6/26/2024 at 7:50 PM, BullBuchanan said:

Pass the kool aid. This isn't just a drastic step down from what we had by every possible measurement, it's likely the weakest WR group we've had on paper in the last 40 years.

 

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On 2018, no. I think there is a debate on 2017 and relevant to the 2017 conversation is that at this point of that offseason we still had Sammy. So if I'm comparing how I feel a few weeks out from camp to how I have felt at the same point in other years I'd have felt better in 2017. 

 

The reason 2017 (eventual roster) and 2024 (if this is the group of WRs by the time the season begins) is closer matched to me is that Jordan Matthews had averaged 890 yards in his three seasons in Philly. There is nobody with that level of consistent production on this roster. I think they probably have more guys with some history of production now than they had week 1 in 2017..... and I do think Samuel > Matthews talent wise even if he hasn't got the proven production. So I'd have this group just ahead of 2017 but I do think that one is more debatable than 2018. 

Ok- I suppose i should rephrase my question as my original argument was refuting the bolded above-  is this the worst WR the Bills have ever had?

 

I’ve been going off of our WRs to start seasons, ie final 53.  Imo- 17 and 18 are absolute no brainers.  I don’t consider Sammy because he wasn’t on the 17 team and “this point in the offseason” wasn’t part of the discussion.  I could have been more specific.  
 

No chance I’d ever choose 17 over 24.  If Tate, Kaelin Clay and Joe Webb were flanked by Sammy, Bob Woods and Andre Holmes I could get behind that.  But those 3 are so bad that the great Jordan Matthew’s, Zay Jones rookie and Andre Holmes can’t turn this into a real debate imo.  
 

I’d also take Benjamin- Zay- foster- holmes- Ray ray and deonte Thompson over that group- but 2024 is clearly better than both to my eyes.  Some see it differently-  only natural

[klos63]

On 6/26/2024 at 5:35 PM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

On the flip side of that coin the chiefs had this level of wr and won the Super Bowl 😂 

 

i feel like Kincaid has to be factored in even if you’re talking about wr specifically and the dolphins/jets don’t have a guy like that 

I'm not saying they can't be successful,  I'm just stating that we look at players differently if they're on our team.