I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Well,  I mean they didn't even really TRY to replace Beasley.  Throwing one of their 4ths at the problem in the upcoming draft would be a lot more than they did then.

 

And then there is the question of whether Kincaid needs more of those reps to reach HIS potential. The Bills can retain Kincaid thru the 2027 season(with a healthy 5th year bump) and TE's don't get money commensurate to comparably ranked WR.  So that's a factor in the Shakir decision as well.    Being able to run their offense thru Kelce has been a big cap saver for the Chiefs.

 

Also important to note that Shakir plays less than 60% of the snaps because having to use him in the slot isn't ideal for a lot of the other things they want to do.  That's where being able to start outside instead would make a big difference.

 

As for him accepting Gabe-like money..........that could be a huge amount to leave on the table.   I know the Bills wanted to extend Gabe but he wasn't taking 60 cents on the dollar.   With the punishment Shakir takes in the slot maybe he'd be more inclined to take a team friendly deal early but that punishment is also why you shoot for the bigger deal with more guarantees.   That might be the last deal he gets. 

They tried to replace Beasley cheaply.  The thought was to promote McKenzie (he had that great game against New England) and they got Crowder.  I would prefer not to see this type of philosophy used again.  Keep this good thing rolling.

 

I hadn't thought much of the Shakir's affect on Kincaid.  Just ride the hot hand.  The Kincaid decision is a long way away.  I'm inclined to think the FO will be extending him.  Having two good players Shakir/Kincaid would be a good thing.

 

While it will come down to the money, the advantage the Bills have is being able to give a market value guaranteed extension before his current contract expires, much like they did with Knox.  If both sides are reasonable and fair this can work out, and I think it will.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I get that they love Shakir.  They absolutely loved Knox.  They absolutely loved team captain Gabe.

 

Knox had very efficient TE receiving numbers prior to his extension but everyone knew he had some limitations.   Shakir is the same way without the ability to be the regular X or Z.   They surely regret extending Knox.

 

So could the Bills draft a WR early with more inside/out versatility instead of paying Shakir the going rate and then not have to substitute as often to get where they want to be offensively?  

 

Whether they love them or not is a factor but they let Gabe go and he was playing nearly every snap.  Gabe wanted market and that was considerably more than his value to them.   

 

I get your comments on Gabe, but I think you would agree there is a massive difference here between him and Shakir.  At no point was Gabe ever as good or as important on a week to week basis to this team and offense as Shakir has made himself.  Shakir is better, and often a lot better, in just about every single comparable category to Gabe.  Shakir has also been historically efficient and reliable now in 2 consecutive seasons in all his opportunities.  The team also saw first hand just how much worse the offense is without him when he missed a game.  

 

I am not saying he is getting St. Brown money or anything of course, but I do think he will be a priority extension (assuming no serious injury or regression rest of season) and he will definitely get north of $15M this offseason and how much closer that number gets to $20M will come down to how the rest of the season plays out.  Where as Beane seemed to know ahead of time they were not going to be giving Davis a 2nd contract.  

 

Bonus info:  Shakir is on a team that runs the ball great and spreads the ball around the passing game.  He also missed a game and was limited in another game.  And week 2 we barely passed at all in a run game blow out and week 3 the offense again didn't really pass in the 2nd half in another blowout.  

• Yet...Shakir still is 21st in the NFL in receiving yards and 5th in yards after the catch.  Not to mention again leading the NFL in catch % too.

[SoonerBillsFan]

After 157 pages, is it a quiet secret anymore?

 

[Maine-iac]

They paid Beasley 4yrs 29 million in 2019.  What do you think that translates to today?

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

They paid Beasley 4yrs 29 million in 2019.  What do you think that translates to today?

 

I think Shakir will probably land in the $16M to $18M range...if he has a big finish to the season and post season he might be able to get closer to or reach $20M, especially if he got to FA.  I think both sides want it to happen and because of that he will sign for a little bit of a hometown discount.  

Edited October 31 by Alphadawg7

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I get that they love Shakir.  They absolutely loved Knox.  They absolutely loved team captain Gabe.

 

Knox had very efficient TE receiving numbers prior to his extension but everyone knew he had some limitations.   Shakir is the same way without the ability to be the regular X or Z.   They surely regret extending Knox.

 

So could the Bills draft a WR early with more inside/out versatility instead of paying Shakir the going rate and then not have to substitute as often to get where they want to be offensively?  

 

Whether they love them or not is a factor but they let Gabe go and he was playing nearly every snap.  Gabe wanted market and that was considerably more than his value to them.   

I agree they probably shouldn’t extend Shakir but I think they will, personally.

 

Edited October 31 by FireChans

[Alphadawg7]

50 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I agree they probably shouldn’t extend Shakir but I think they will, personally.

 

 

They shouldn't extend a guy who is 21st in the NFL in receiving yards despite missing a game, 5th in YAC, and 1st in catch %?  A guy who when on the field the offense is clearly better?  A guy who Josh clearly trusts the most?  A guy who is one of the best WR's in the NFL with the ball in his hands?  

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I agree they probably shouldn’t extend Shakir but I think they will, personally.

 

Can you expand on this reasoning?

 

Why shouldn't they?

 

Not even being sarcastic,  legit curious..

35 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

They shouldn't extend a guy who is 21st in the NFL in receiving yards despite missing a game, 5th in YAC, and 1st in catch %?  A guy who when on the field the offense is clearly better?  A guy who Josh clearly trusts the most?  A guy who is one of the best WR's in the NFL with the ball in his hands?  

AMEN BROTHER 

 

No lies detected 

2 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

They paid Beasley 4yrs 29 million in 2019.  What do you think that translates to today?

Got to add age in this equation,  3 years 40-45 mil?

[FireChans]

18 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Can you expand on this reasoning?

 

Why shouldn't they?

 

Not even being sarcastic,  legit curious..

AMEN BROTHER 

 

No lies detected 

Got to add age in this equation,  3 years 40-45 mil?

I don’t think WR’s that are between top 20 and top 40 are worth what they are paid on the open market.

[JerseyBills]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

I don’t think WR’s that are between top 20 and top 40 are worth what they are paid on the open market.

So what is his worth? 

Still got 55% of a season to go but the footage since the 2nd half of last year clearly shows this kid is legit..

[Alphadawg7]

32 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I don’t think WR’s that are between top 20 and top 40 are worth what they are paid on the open market.

 

He is 21st in receiving yards and has the 5th most yards after the catch in the NFL...despite missing a game, playing limited in another game, and the Bills passing offense not really involved over 3 more halves of football in weeks 1-3.  

 

 

Edited November 1 by Alphadawg7

[3rdand12]

46 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I don’t think WR’s that are between top 20 and top 40 are worth what they are paid on the open market.

and yet

They do get paid , dont they FC ?

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

He is 21st in receiving yards and has the 5th most yards after the catch in the NFL...despite missing a game, playing limited in another game, and the Bills passing offense not really involved over 3 more halves of football in weeks 1-3.  

 

 

Yeah my point remains the sensible.

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yeah my point remains the sensible.

Weren’t you the one talking about needing WRs in the top 32 in receiving yards all offseason?  And here we have one whose top 21 despite missing a game and now you don’t want him?  

Edited November 1 by Alphadawg7

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Weren’t you the one talking about needing WRs in the top 32 in receiving yards all offseason?  And here we have one who’s top 21 despite missing a game and now you don’t want him?  

I don’t think that Shakir is worth what he will demand on the open market. He is a wonderful player and I wish we could keep him but he remains just below what we should spend with Josh making top 5 money imo 

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

I don’t think that Shakir is worth what he will demand on the open market. He is a wonderful player and I wish we could keep him but he remains just below what we should spend with Josh making top 5 money imo 

Top5 money?

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I get that they love Shakir.  They absolutely loved Knox.  They absolutely loved team captain Gabe.

 

 

I don't think they ever loved Gabe like they love Shakir. Beane was waxing lyrical again on the Ross Tucker podcast this week. Of course there is a chance Shakir just has insane demands but my very strong belief is that they will extend him. They talk about him like he is their own son.

 

For those asking "well why wouldn't you?" My answer would be that it is really hard the play offense inside out now in the NFL. I know Brady managed it for years but even he at the end went to Tampa where they had two studs that can play and win outside. Cooper Kupp was a #1 mainly from the slot. St Brown is too. But they are few and far between and I think there are already reasons based on what we saw at the start of this year to suggest Shakir isn't that. What he IS is a really fine slot receiver who if you spread defenses out, make them defend the entire field and give him some room to operate can really be a weapon inside. The question is that something you pay or not? I have my doubts but strongly believe when the Bills add Shakir's character and attitude into thay mix their answer will be yes.

 

My guess is the Bills do a 3 year extension. That has tended to be their go to for guys like Milano and Taron who were clearly valuable players but in less valuable positions. Spotrac has him between $18.3m AAV and $20.4m AAV. I have him top end of that range in return for taking a shorter deal. Something like 3 years $62m, $40m guaranteed but because the Bills still have him under contract next year and will pay the signing bonus in that year it is basically a 4 year $63m deal. They can put a few mill onto the 2025 cap and keep a bit of flexibility down the road. 

 

Might depend on what they want to do with Cooper as well I suppose. 

[Coach Tuesday]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think they ever loved Gabe like they love Shakir. Beane was waxing lyrical again on the Ross Tucker podcast this week. Of course there is a chance Shakir just has insane demands but my very strong belief is that they will extend him. They talk about him like he is their own son.

 

For those asking "well why wouldn't you?" My answer would be that it is really hard the play offense inside out now in the NFL. I know Brady managed it for years but even he at the end went to Tampa where they had two studs that can play and win outside. Cooper Kupp was a #1 mainly from the slot. St Brown is too. But they are few and far between and I think there are already reasons based on what we saw at the start of this year to suggest Shakir isn't that. What he IS is a really fine slot receiver who if you spread defenses out, make them defend the entire field and give him some room to operate can really be a weapon inside. The question is that something you pay or not? I have my doubts but strongly believe when the Bills add Shakir's character and attitude into thay mix their answer will be yes.

 

My guess is the Bills do a 3 year extension. That has tended to be their go to for guys like Milano and Taron who were clearly valuable players but in less valuable positions. Spotrac has him between $18.3m AAV and $20.4m AAV. I have him top end of that range in return for taking a shorter deal. Something like 3 years $62m, $40m guaranteed but because the Bills still have him under contract next year and will pay the signing bonus in that year it is basically a 4 year $63m deal. They can put a few mill onto the 2025 cap and keep a bit of flexibility down the road. 

 

Might depend on what they want to do with Cooper as well I suppose. 

The problem is Amon-Ra St. Brown’s insane contract given to him by the Lions (dumb organizations to dumb things): 4 years, $120,010,000 with a whopping $77,000,000 guaranteed, average annual salary of $30,002,500.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

The problem is Amon-Ra St. Brown’s insane contract given to him by the Lions (dumb organizations to dumb things): 4 years, $120,010,000 with a whopping $77,000,000 guaranteed, average annual salary of $30,002,500.

 

Sure but that was on the back of three years of production, two 1,000 yard seasons including 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. If Shakir wants that deal the Bills won't sign him. Shakir two years in has a best of 611 yards. I do think health allowing he is going to be right around 1,000 this year. But probably 950-1100 yards with 5 touchdowns. I don't think that puts him in the St Brown bracket when he is negotiating his deal. 

[FireChans]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Top5 money?

Yeah when Josh gets his new contract, he will be probably the highest paid QB in the NFL or close to it. 
 

I don’t think you pay a Shakir to ride along.