I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Joe Marino in a recent podcast brings up some good points about how we now (including Cooper) appear to be far better with out top-3 WRs than we would be if we kept Steph and Gabe:

 

Regarding Diggs diminishing vertical game and Davis this year:

- Diggs is still producing this year (prior to injury) but his vertical game is diminishing: his average depth of target was just 8.3 yards; last year it was 10.5 and in prior years "pushing 12 yards," says Joe

- over half of his snaps are from the slot; he's become a slot WR; Joe says that still has value but "there's a trajectory to be mindful of"

- Gabe Davis this year in on pace for 40 catches, 400-something yards and 4 TDs this year — for $13 million; "this speaks to the limitations I've been talking about for years; you cannot view Davis as a legitimate number 2 WR; he's too limited. A limited football player in a prominent role in your offense constipates your offense. There's not a piece of me that misses Gabe Davis."

- "So would I rather have Diggs and Davis or Coleman, Cooper and Sharkir in a prominent role? C'mon, of course I would rather have what the Bills have right now."

 

Regarding Josh this year with his new WRs:
- It's unlocked more for Allen who has never been more efficient, says Joe

- Why is that? Josh is not worried about 160 targets going to Diggs

- And Josh no longer is on the "ridiculous journey to validate Davis as a true number 2 WR."

- "Those burdens have been lifted."
- Josh is now more efficient than ever

 

Looking into Josh's stats, his comp % is not at a career high but his TD/INT ratio is (yes, I've heard the points that a lot is luck and he should have more picks thus far) but the eye test says Josh is playing smarter. 

 

And Josh's QBR is a tick better than his prior best.

Let's see where Josh ends up after 17 games but I think Marino is on point about how this mix of WRs is better than what we'd have with Steph and Gabe and Josh is liberated to be efficient and not feed any guy balls based on salary and #1 or #2 designation.

See around 15:40 of Joe's podcast for this discussion...

 

 

- 


Hard to argue.  

It’s kind of interesting because I look at this group today as a comparison of the 2020-2021 units, at least at the top.
 

Cooper - Diggs

Coleman - Davis

Shakir - Beasley

 

2024 Cooper is probably not as good as 2020-2021 Diggs. But Davis was a WR3/4 over-elevated and I think Coleman clears him now. Shakir and Beasley may be a wash but I give the edge to Shakir.

 

Then you add Kincaid and Cook to the mix and this entire offensive group looks not half bad. 
 

Just looking at EPA/play, this is the best offense we have had since 2020.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, FireChans said:

It’s kind of interesting because I look at this group today as a comparison of the 2020-2021 units, at least at the top.
 

Cooper - Diggs

Coleman - Davis

Shakir - Beasley

 

2024 Cooper is probably not as good as 2020-2021 Diggs. But Davis was a WR3/4 over-elevated and I think Coleman clears him now. Shakir and Beasley may be a wash but I give the edge to Shakir.

 

Then you add Kincaid and Cook to the mix and this entire offensive group looks not half bad. 
 

Just looking at EPA/play, this is the best offense we have had since 2020.

 

I think the difference in 2020 and 2021 was that Gabe was WR4 (until the very end of 21). It was actually Diggs, Brown, Beasley and then Diggs, Sanders, Beasley. Gabe was playing relief pitcher at that point. 

 

Cooper is definitely not as good as prime Diggs. There is an argument he has more left than Diggs showed down the stretch last season but prime Diggs is the best receiver of the Allen era, without question. Coleman definitely has more talent than Gabe. That's why Keon was a 2nd round pick and Gabe was a 4th round pick. Athletically he is just more talented. He needs to keep stacking the production but if he can show consistency (another thing Gabe struggled with) then by the end of the season we will conclusively be able to say that's an upgrade. Shakir right now is right there with prime Beasley for me too and I think he is going to surpass Beas's career year in 2020 this season as long as he stays healthy. If only they could get Samuel healthy and going a bit as that 4th guy / relief pitcher rather than as no more than a poor man's Isaiah McKenzie gimmick guy (I know Samuel is better than McKenzie but in terms of impact on this offense so far he is a poor man's version of the old McKenzie gimmick role).

 

And the tight ends and running backs are waaaaay better than we had in 2020/2021. The line is better than 2021 too, and probably better than the 2020 line who in hindsight we can say were a bit of a mirage in a season when with no fans in the stands pre-snap penalties were down and the league definitely backed off calling offensive holding in order to help games flow. 

 

I think the conclusion is this offense doesn't have an elite stud that the 2020 offense had in Stef. But it might be all around deeper. 

[Ray Stonada]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the conclusion is this offense doesn't have an elite stud that the 2020 offense had in Stef. But it might be all around deeper. 

 

Which might be better for the playoffs. More ways to beat you now. 

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He needs to keep stacking the production but if he can show consistency (another thing Gabe struggled with) then by the end of the season we will conclusively be able to say that's an upgrade.

We can conclude Coleman is an upgrade now.  Even if he proves not to be consistent, that is no different than Davis (as you mention) and if Coleman  is inconsequential in the playoffs, that is also not different than Davis.  And given he is already showing a much higher ceiling, we can safely say he is an upgrade. (I was not a Davis hater, nor a Coleman lover as a pick, but the eye test is pretty stark at this point) 

Edited 34 minutes ago by Chaos

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

We can conclude Coleman is an upgrade now.  Even if he proves not to be consistent, that is no different than Davis (as you mention) and if Coleman  is inconsequential in the playoffs, that is also not different than Davis.  And given he is already showing a much higher ceiling, we can safely say he is an upgrade. (I was not a Davis hater, nor a Coleman lover as a pick, but the eye test is pretty stark at this point) 

 

I think it is certainly trending that way and I fully expect it to play out that way. I agree he already shows a much higher ceiling. For it to be definitive I think we do need a bigger sample size. Also not sure it is fair to say Gabe was inconsequential in the playoffs. He had three big playoff games in seven attempts with the Bills - Indy 2021, Chiefs 2022 and Dolphins 2023. His playoff production is an area that is hard to knock him for. 

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

His playoff production is an area that is hard to knock him for. 

Fair enough.  I guess since we can't get past the divisional round I think everyone is inconsequential in the playoffs.  Which is an unreasonable bias. 

[boyst]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the difference in 2020 and 2021 was that Gabe was WR4 (until the very end of 21). It was actually Diggs, Brown, Beasley and then Diggs, Sanders, Beasley. Gabe was playing relief pitcher at that point. 

 

Cooper is definitely not as good as prime Diggs. There is an argument he has more left than Diggs showed down the stretch last season but prime Diggs is the best receiver of the Allen era, without question. Coleman definitely has more talent than Gabe. That's why Keon was a 2nd round pick and Gabe was a 4th round pick. Athletically he is just more talented. He needs to keep stacking the production but if he can show consistency (another thing Gabe struggled with) then by the end of the season we will conclusively be able to say that's an upgrade. Shakir right now is right there with prime Beasley for me too and I think he is going to surpass Beas's career year in 2020 this season as long as he stays healthy. If only they could get Samuel healthy and going a bit as that 4th guy / relief pitcher rather than as no more than a poor man's Isaiah McKenzie gimmick guy (I know Samuel is better than McKenzie but in terms of impact on this offense so far he is a poor man's version of the old McKenzie gimmick role).

 

And the tight ends and running backs are waaaaay better than we had in 2020/2021. The line is better than 2021 too, and probably better than the 2020 line who in hindsight we can say were a bit of a mirage in a season when with no fans in the stands pre-snap penalties were down and the league definitely backed off calling offensive holding in order to help games flow. 

 

I think the conclusion is this offense doesn't have an elite stud that the 2020 offense had in Stef. But it might be all around deeper. 

@FireChans did not mention McKenzie, which I am glad you did.

McKenzie as a gimmick role was tremendous when used properly and was such a wildcard that teams had to account for which did not show up on TV but would show up on game film.