I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Joe Marino in a recent podcast brings up some good points about how we now (including Cooper) appear to be far better with out top-3 WRs than we would be if we kept Steph and Gabe:

 

Regarding Diggs diminishing vertical game and Davis this year:

- Diggs is still producing this year (prior to injury) but his vertical game is diminishing: his average depth of target was just 8.3 yards; last year it was 10.5 and in prior years "pushing 12 yards," says Joe

- over half of his snaps are from the slot; he's become a slot WR; Joe says that still has value but "there's a trajectory to be mindful of"

- Gabe Davis this year in on pace for 40 catches, 400-something yards and 4 TDs this year — for $13 million; "this speaks to the limitations I've been talking about for years; you cannot view Davis as a legitimate number 2 WR; he's too limited. A limited football player in a prominent role in your offense constipates your offense. There's not a piece of me that misses Gabe Davis."

- "So would I rather have Diggs and Davis or Coleman, Cooper and Sharkir in a prominent role? C'mon, of course I would rather have what the Bills have right now."

 

Regarding Josh this year with his new WRs:
- It's unlocked more for Allen who has never been more efficient, says Joe

- Why is that? Josh is not worried about 160 targets going to Diggs

- And Josh no longer is on the "ridiculous journey to validate Davis as a true number 2 WR."

- "Those burdens have been lifted."
- Josh is now more efficient than ever

 

Looking into Josh's stats, his comp % is not at a career high but his TD/INT ratio is (yes, I've heard the points that a lot is luck and he should have more picks thus far) but the eye test says Josh is playing smarter. 

 

And Josh's QBR is a tick better than his prior best.

Let's see where Josh ends up after 17 games but I think Marino is on point about how this mix of WRs is better than what we'd have with Steph and Gabe and Josh is liberated to be efficient and not feed any guy balls based on salary and #1 or #2 designation.

See around 15:40 of Joe's podcast for this discussion...

 

 

- 


Hard to argue.  

It’s kind of interesting because I look at this group today as a comparison of the 2020-2021 units, at least at the top.
 

Cooper - Diggs

Coleman - Davis

Shakir - Beasley

 

2024 Cooper is probably not as good as 2020-2021 Diggs. But Davis was a WR3/4 over-elevated and I think Coleman clears him now. Shakir and Beasley may be a wash but I give the edge to Shakir.

 

Then you add Kincaid and Cook to the mix and this entire offensive group looks not half bad. 
 

Just looking at EPA/play, this is the best offense we have had since 2020.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, FireChans said:

It’s kind of interesting because I look at this group today as a comparison of the 2020-2021 units, at least at the top.
 

Cooper - Diggs

Coleman - Davis

Shakir - Beasley

 

2024 Cooper is probably not as good as 2020-2021 Diggs. But Davis was a WR3/4 over-elevated and I think Coleman clears him now. Shakir and Beasley may be a wash but I give the edge to Shakir.

 

Then you add Kincaid and Cook to the mix and this entire offensive group looks not half bad. 
 

Just looking at EPA/play, this is the best offense we have had since 2020.

 

I think the difference in 2020 and 2021 was that Gabe was WR4 (until the very end of 21). It was actually Diggs, Brown, Beasley and then Diggs, Sanders, Beasley. Gabe was playing relief pitcher at that point. 

 

Cooper is definitely not as good as prime Diggs. There is an argument he has more left than Diggs showed down the stretch last season but prime Diggs is the best receiver of the Allen era, without question. Coleman definitely has more talent than Gabe. That's why Keon was a 2nd round pick and Gabe was a 4th round pick. Athletically he is just more talented. He needs to keep stacking the production but if he can show consistency (another thing Gabe struggled with) then by the end of the season we will conclusively be able to say that's an upgrade. Shakir right now is right there with prime Beasley for me too and I think he is going to surpass Beas's career year in 2020 this season as long as he stays healthy. If only they could get Samuel healthy and going a bit as that 4th guy / relief pitcher rather than as no more than a poor man's Isaiah McKenzie gimmick guy (I know Samuel is better than McKenzie but in terms of impact on this offense so far he is a poor man's version of the old McKenzie gimmick role).

 

And the tight ends and running backs are waaaaay better than we had in 2020/2021. The line is better than 2021 too, and probably better than the 2020 line who in hindsight we can say were a bit of a mirage in a season when with no fans in the stands pre-snap penalties were down and the league definitely backed off calling offensive holding in order to help games flow. 

 

I think the conclusion is this offense doesn't have an elite stud that the 2020 offense had in Stef. But it might be all around deeper. 

[Ray Stonada]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the conclusion is this offense doesn't have an elite stud that the 2020 offense had in Stef. But it might be all around deeper. 

 

Which might be better for the playoffs. More ways to beat you now. 

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He needs to keep stacking the production but if he can show consistency (another thing Gabe struggled with) then by the end of the season we will conclusively be able to say that's an upgrade.

We can conclude Coleman is an upgrade now.  Even if he proves not to be consistent, that is no different than Davis (as you mention) and if Coleman  is inconsequential in the playoffs, that is also not different than Davis.  And given he is already showing a much higher ceiling, we can safely say he is an upgrade. (I was not a Davis hater, nor a Coleman lover as a pick, but the eye test is pretty stark at this point) 

Edited October 31 by Chaos

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

We can conclude Coleman is an upgrade now.  Even if he proves not to be consistent, that is no different than Davis (as you mention) and if Coleman  is inconsequential in the playoffs, that is also not different than Davis.  And given he is already showing a much higher ceiling, we can safely say he is an upgrade. (I was not a Davis hater, nor a Coleman lover as a pick, but the eye test is pretty stark at this point) 

 

I think it is certainly trending that way and I fully expect it to play out that way. I agree he already shows a much higher ceiling. For it to be definitive I think we do need a bigger sample size. Also not sure it is fair to say Gabe was inconsequential in the playoffs. He had three big playoff games in seven attempts with the Bills - Indy 2021, Chiefs 2022 and Dolphins 2023. His playoff production is an area that is hard to knock him for. 

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

His playoff production is an area that is hard to knock him for. 

Fair enough.  I guess since we can't get past the divisional round I think everyone is inconsequential in the playoffs.  Which is an unreasonable bias. 

[boyst]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the difference in 2020 and 2021 was that Gabe was WR4 (until the very end of 21). It was actually Diggs, Brown, Beasley and then Diggs, Sanders, Beasley. Gabe was playing relief pitcher at that point. 

 

Cooper is definitely not as good as prime Diggs. There is an argument he has more left than Diggs showed down the stretch last season but prime Diggs is the best receiver of the Allen era, without question. Coleman definitely has more talent than Gabe. That's why Keon was a 2nd round pick and Gabe was a 4th round pick. Athletically he is just more talented. He needs to keep stacking the production but if he can show consistency (another thing Gabe struggled with) then by the end of the season we will conclusively be able to say that's an upgrade. Shakir right now is right there with prime Beasley for me too and I think he is going to surpass Beas's career year in 2020 this season as long as he stays healthy. If only they could get Samuel healthy and going a bit as that 4th guy / relief pitcher rather than as no more than a poor man's Isaiah McKenzie gimmick guy (I know Samuel is better than McKenzie but in terms of impact on this offense so far he is a poor man's version of the old McKenzie gimmick role).

 

And the tight ends and running backs are waaaaay better than we had in 2020/2021. The line is better than 2021 too, and probably better than the 2020 line who in hindsight we can say were a bit of a mirage in a season when with no fans in the stands pre-snap penalties were down and the league definitely backed off calling offensive holding in order to help games flow. 

 

I think the conclusion is this offense doesn't have an elite stud that the 2020 offense had in Stef. But it might be all around deeper. 

@FireChans did not mention McKenzie, which I am glad you did.

McKenzie as a gimmick role was tremendous when used properly and was such a wildcard that teams had to account for which did not show up on TV but would show up on game film.

[Billsatlastin2018]

We’d all like to have a corps of Rice, Cris Carter or either Harrison 😜, but the fact is- nobody does.

 

NONE of the 2024 Bills WR posse is a Superstar, but together, with 17 @ QB,they are highly competent.

#4 Kincaid. A huge body TE, who catches more than he drops and will be covered by the worst defender

#3 Shakir, simply doesn’t doesn’t drop footballs! Going into last week, Allen had thrown him 27 targets. He had caught 26 of them!

#2 Coleman. The huge rook- NOW can clearly go up and catch contested balls, most importantly contested TD balls and has YAC ability.

#1 Cooper. The reason why the others are going. A vet with a 10 year average of almost 1000 yards.

 

PLUS… you have these little scat RBs… plural… who can move quickly and catch and YAC quickly on screens and dump offs! 

 

Roll back the clock just one month and you had bodies I don’t even want to mention! Untrustworthy and looked incapable of the big catch!

 

100% upgrade.

[Ray Stonada]

8 minutes ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

We’d all like to have a corps of Rice, Cris Carter or either Harrison 😜, but the fact is- nobody does.

 

NONE of the 2024 Bills WR posse is a Superstar, but together, with 17 @ QB,they are highly competent.

#4 Kincaid. A huge body TE, who catches more than he drops and will be covered by the worst defender

#3 Shakir, simply doesn’t doesn’t drop footballs! Going into last week, Allen had thrown him 27 targets. He had caught 26 of them!

#2 Coleman. The huge rook- NOW can clearly go up and catch contested balls, most importantly contested TD balls and has YAC ability.

#1 Cooper. The reason why the others are going. A vet with a 10 year average of almost 1000 yards.

 

PLUS… you have these little scat RBs… plural… who can move quickly and catch and YAC quickly on screens and dump offs! 

 

Roll back the clock just one month and you had bodies I don’t even want to mention! Untrustworthy and looked incapable of the big catch!

 

100% upgrade.

Plus Knox who’s getting going!

[boyst]

46 minutes ago, boyst said:

@FireChans did not mention McKenzie, which I am glad you did.

McKenzie as a gimmick role was tremendous when used properly and was such a wildcard that teams had to account for which did not show up on TV but would show up on game film.

@GunnerBill

thinking back on this post and some thoughts i had earlier in the week i need help from you and others in Bills land.

 

I remember McKenzie's blow up in the Patriots game but do not remember many specifics of that game individually. What i do seem to remember was him being in a lot of 3 and 4 WR sets. The sets of 3 WR often included Knox, while the mix of WRs was generally Diggs, Beasley, and Brown/Davis/Sanders (Sanders had over 150 more snap counts than Davis in 2021 - i looked).

 

If memory serves me we used McKenzie as a double slot or tucked underneath. This gave him great range to spread out around the field, as it did with Beasley, Knox, and by 2022 our offense featured only Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, and Shakir as legit WR's. The former not up to form yet, while McKenzie and Davis were truly limited in what they offered.

 

What was special about McKenzie was how much he shined when others were on the field with him and how much they made him better. This is why I think we need to find ways to put the right gadget/special player on the field like Samuel, as you mentioned, to be elevated by the other players on the field.

 

I haven't had the ability to dedicate time to this double slot approach using someone like Samuel/?? or Kincaid opposite of Shakir but I think it could be effective if we can have Cooper or even Samuel playing the decoy down threat throw. They're not purely a decoy but are a low probability throw with high potential outcomes.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the difference in 2020 and 2021 was that Gabe was WR4 (until the very end of 21). It was actually Diggs, Brown, Beasley and then Diggs, Sanders, Beasley. Gabe was playing relief pitcher at that point. 

 

Cooper is definitely not as good as prime Diggs. There is an argument he has more left than Diggs showed down the stretch last season but prime Diggs is the best receiver of the Allen era, without question. Coleman definitely has more talent than Gabe. That's why Keon was a 2nd round pick and Gabe was a 4th round pick. Athletically he is just more talented. He needs to keep stacking the production but if he can show consistency (another thing Gabe struggled with) then by the end of the season we will conclusively be able to say that's an upgrade. Shakir right now is right there with prime Beasley for me too and I think he is going to surpass Beas's career year in 2020 this season as long as he stays healthy. If only they could get Samuel healthy and going a bit as that 4th guy / relief pitcher rather than as no more than a poor man's Isaiah McKenzie gimmick guy (I know Samuel is better than McKenzie but in terms of impact on this offense so far he is a poor man's version of the old McKenzie gimmick role).

 

And the tight ends and running backs are waaaaay better than we had in 2020/2021. The line is better than 2021 too, and probably better than the 2020 line who in hindsight we can say were a bit of a mirage in a season when with no fans in the stands pre-snap penalties were down and the league definitely backed off calling offensive holding in order to help games flow. 

 

I think the conclusion is this offense doesn't have an elite stud that the 2020 offense had in Stef. But it might be all around deeper. 

 

 

The 2020 offense was only at it's best early in the season when John Brown was healthy.   That group got OPEN and open deep.  It didn't really matter who they had at TE or RB with that group of WR's.   THAT version of the 2020 WR corps was stacked and top 3 in the league, if not the very best that year.   The version they took to the playoffs is the one @FireChans is comparing them to and that one wasn't nearly as good with Brown compromised and then got much worse by the AFCCG due to injuries to Beasley and Davis.    

 

League-wide, the bar has been raised at the WR position since 2020 and that shows in how teams are playing defense now.   So, in addition to not being as explosive as that first half of 2020 offense..........this current unit's rank in terms of skill players isn't as high as it was then relative to the rest of the NFL.   As you say, hopefully Samuel comes back looking like the player he's been most of his career and then if Cooper gets back to 2023 form then it's possible that this could be the best group but I will take the one that was speed-boating teams early in 2020.

Edited October 31 by BADOLBILZ

[NewEra]

Adding on comparison of play making units Josh has had. 

 

I’d take Shakir over Beasley every day of the week.  While Cole may have been a bit more cerebral in in knowledge of zones, Shakir isn’t very far behind him.  Slight edge to Beasley in that regard.  
 

not that Beasley had poor hands, but Shakir has him beat there imo.

 

the YAC with Shakir is just in a different stratosphere.  He makes the first guy miss in almost every one on one.  He’s short area explosion and start stop make him special in that regard.  Then add in his strength and squatty body, you have the perfect slot WR.  The added dimension of screen pass success to Shakir (vs Beasley) is just another layer of production that sets him apart.  
 

people can talk about arm length all they want-  just watch the tape.  He’s a stud.  
 

Prime diggs is definitely better than 2024 cooper, but cooper is a better field stretcher and his size/attitude is more beneficial.  

Keon is better than Gabe.  No doubt

 

McKenzie vs Samuel goes to McKenzie based on current production with the team but that could change.

 

John Brown/sanders aren’t really the correct comp for Hollins.  They should be compared to Keon, while Gabe compared to hollins.  Either way, the past version are way better WRs than Hollins… but Hollins serves his purpose.  Our past teams lacked in one area specifically- short game run after the catch. No one was worried about Our RBs, TE, Beasley, Diggs, Brown or Gabe running after the  catch.  Opponents shelled us to death and we could do nothing to combat it at times.  While our play makers are much better running after the catch based on their physical traits, Mack and Keon (plus Kincaid,Knox) really help open things up for them.  Hollins routinely takes his man out of the play. He has a niche in this offense and I expect him to still make a few big catches as the season goes on.

 

The physical size and nature of our WR room is much better suited for the cold weather come playoff time.

 

add in:

 

TE and RB rooms aren’t even comparable. 

 

OL- better than solid, but I wouldn’t call them great. Either way, an upgrade.

 

[HappyDays]

44 minutes ago, NewEra said:

people can talk about arm length all they want-  just watch the tape.  He’s a stud.  

 

Arm length was only used as a talking point regarding his ability to play outside. And that has turned out to be a legit talking point - 69.8% of his snaps this year have come from the slot. I don't have access to stats on his exact target share from the slot versus outside, but from the eye test I'm mostly only seeing him get outside targets on screens, everything else is coming from the slot.

 

Not that there's anything wrong with him having a defined slot role. His efficiency from that position has been otherworldly and his YAC skills are as good as it gets. That's been my favorite aspect of this new pass catching group as a whole. YAC is arguably more important than ever now because of the way defenses are schemed. It's very hard to win over the top these days, so getting chunk plays with the ball in your skill players' hands is the best way to move down the field in a hurry.

 

Joe Marino does a weekly recap of Josh Allen analytics as part of his Substack. According to his data 57.4% of Allen's passing yards come from YAC. That ranks 4th in the NFL. Coleman and Shakir rank 2nd and 5th respectively in YAC per reception. Kincaid ranks 12th. This is a massive upgrade from previous seasons where I know we consistently ranked near the bottom of the NFL. So we may not have a defined vertical WR right now but I think we're more than making up for it with the efficiency of the group.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Arm length was only used as a talking point regarding his ability to play outside. And that has turned out to be a legit talking point - 69.8% of his snaps this year have come from the slot. I don't have access to stats on his exact target share from the slot versus outside, but from the eye test I'm mostly only seeing him get outside targets on screens, everything else is coming from the slot.

 

 

Correct. Arm length was never a "and so Shakir can't play" it was a "it makes him a slot only". And it has.

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Arm length was only used as a talking point regarding his ability to play outside. And that has turned out to be a legit talking point - 69.8% of his snaps this year have come from the slot. I don't have access to stats on his exact target share from the slot versus outside, but from the eye test I'm mostly only seeing him get outside targets on screens, everything else is coming from the slot.

 

Not that there's anything wrong with him having a defined slot role. His efficiency from that position has been otherworldly and his YAC skills are as good as it gets. That's been my favorite aspect of this new pass catching group as a whole. YAC is arguably more important than ever now because of the way defenses are schemed. It's very hard to win over the top these days, so getting chunk plays with the ball in your skill players' hands is the best way to move down the field in a hurry.

 

Joe Marino does a weekly recap of Josh Allen analytics as part of his Substack. According to his data 57.4% of Allen's passing yards come from YAC. That ranks 4th in the NFL. Coleman and Shakir rank 2nd and 5th respectively in YAC per reception. Kincaid ranks 12th. This is a massive upgrade from previous seasons where I know we consistently ranked near the bottom of the NFL. So we may not have a defined vertical WR right now but I think we're more than making up for it with the efficiency of the group.

I’m not only talking about this offseasons discussion. Arm length was heavily discussed as to where he was drafted.  I had a low 2nd- high 3rd rd value on him.  I wanted to hear his name in rd 2 (after other WRs I liked more were gone).  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I’m not only talking about this offseasons discussion. Arm length was heavily discussed as to where he was drafted.  I had a low 2nd- high 3rd rd value on him.  I wanted to hear his name in rd 2 (after other WRs I liked more were gone).  

 

I had a late 3 but two of my knocks were:

 

1. He will be strictly slot only because of his length.

2. Won't do much as a rookie because the Boise system he was coming from was as far from a pro offense as it is possible to get while still playing the same sport. 

 

Both of which have been bang on. Even given those two factors though him lasting to the 5th was a real surprise. 

[Watkins101]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

We can conclude Coleman is an upgrade now.  Even if he proves not to be consistent, that is no different than Davis (as you mention) and if Coleman  is inconsequential in the playoffs, that is also not different than Davis.  And given he is already showing a much higher ceiling, we can safely say he is an upgrade. (I was not a Davis hater, nor a Coleman lover as a pick, but the eye test is pretty stark at this point) 

Gabe Davis being inconsequential in the playoffs is a pretty wild take IMO. The 13 seconds game he set the record for most TDs by a Wr in a playoff game, and had the 9th most yards all time. Outside of that game he was significantly less effective, but he averaged almost 70 yards and nearly a TD per game. He also made a lot of difficult catches in the playoffs, I distinctly remember a couple of great toe drag catches against Indy in the playoffs. 

[Nephilim17]

In spite of us apparently having a good group WRs now I'd still like to see Beane take an outside speed WR in the first few founds of the next draft. Even if we sign Cooper to a short deal. Keep the pipeline going with high-ceiling young talent.

Edited October 31 by Nephilim17

[NewEra]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I had a late 3 but two of my knocks were:

 

1. He will be strictly slot only because of his length.

2. Won't do much as a rookie because the Boise system he was coming from was as far from a pro offense as it is possible to get while still playing the same sport. 

 

Both of which have been bang on. Even given those two factors though him lasting to the 5th was a real surprise. 

I couldn’t understand his fall.  I thought he was best served in the slot but he made a ton of plays on the outside so I thought he had a chance to play outside too.  Definitely not ideal but I think he could be an nfl WR outside, just not a very good one.  He had a very good release package that I thought would serve him well.

 

I was actually at the draft when he (and Benford and Araiza) we selected, sitting in the front thanks to @Jamie Nails coming out to the entrance and bringing me in ViP style.  Something I’ll always appreciate.  Sitting next to @Mark Vaderat the time of the Shakir selection, I remember telling him, THAT’S the best pick in the draft!!! I was super excited.  
 

I hadn’t heard of Benford and remember sighing at the pick 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The 2020 offense was only at it's best early in the season when John Brown was healthy.   That group got OPEN and open deep.  It didn't really matter who they had at TE or RB with that group of WR's.   THAT version of the 2020 WR corps was stacked and top 3 in the league, if not the very best that year.   The version they took to the playoffs is the one @FireChans is comparing them to and that one wasn't nearly as good with Brown compromised and then got much worse by the AFCCG due to injuries to Beasley and Davis.    

 

League-wide, the bar has been raised at the WR position since 2020 and that shows in how teams are playing defense now.   So, in addition to not being as explosive as that first half of 2020 offense..........this current unit's rank in terms of skill players isn't as high as it was then relative to the rest of the NFL.   As you say, hopefully Samuel comes back looking like the player he's been most of his career and then if Cooper gets back to 2023 form then it's possible that this could be the best group but I will take the one that was speed-boating teams early in 2020.

 

Yea I stopped short of saying this group was better. That remains to be proven I think. My personal view as you know is always elite talent is ultimately what wins and they had an elite talent in 2020 but don't in 2024. The relativity point is also well made, but equally I think the conversation here is only about the Bills relative to the Bills. And what I am definitely NOT saying is "if they re-sign Cooper they are good for 2025 and they can just go back to throwing day 3 picks only at the position." I want another receiver next year even if they bring Cooper back. Maybe not a 1st rounder but one of their 2nds or a 3rd after a trade down should be allocated to the spot IMO.