I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[oldmanfan]

11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is absolutely fair and we are largely in agreement. It isn’t about being critical. It’s asking a question for consideration. When teams evolve, will the Bills be able to evolve or will the talent on the outside hold them back? We don’t know. That post was from Joe Marino, arguably the most informed Bills follower there is.

 

The reason that I’ve wanted to improve on the outside is to increase the likelihood that they will be able to win in those situations. It’s hard to be good everywhere. There’s no doubt about that. With that being said, if the Bills could add one thing to the roster right now, it would be a stud boundary WR (or kicker). They have 100% done what’s asked of them. It is still the biggest question on the team (kicker excluded). Both are true and that’s the crux of this conversation. It has worked well so far. Is it fair to have concerns if it will work when teams adapt? I think that it’s reasonable to wonder that. 

Fair points.  But Brady has been running the offense not just this season but for a fair part of last season.  And I haven’t seen defenses adapt.  Rather it seems Brady adapts his offense to the defense.  Against Dallas last year he recognized they couldn’t stop a physical run game and ran the ball down their throats.  This past weekend it was that the Jags man D wouldn’t perform well against the pass, so he beat them that way.  To me what is more reasonable is that Brady has shown himself adept at adapting.

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You and others keep harping on this for no apparent reason.  Why outside?  Why not up the seam?  If outside, why can’t it be a TE or RB, like Ty Johnson’s TD the other day?  Do they not count?  Is the only way to win when teams supposedly know you are passing is a guy on the outside?  Hasn’t Brady’s play calling shown you otherwise?  Or for that matter Andy Reid?

 

Because in football there are high leverage moments time and again when everyone knows what you want to do. And in those moments scheme can only do so much. It comes down to mano vs mano and your guy has to beat theirs. And teams use the sideline as the extra defender and protect with inside leverage so that is where the opportunity is. You have to have the players to take it.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Fair points.  But Brady has been running the offense not just this season but for a fair part of last season.  And I haven’t seen defenses adapt.  Rather it seems Brady adapts his offense to the defense.  Against Dallas last year he recognized they couldn’t stop a physical run game and ran the ball down their throats.  This past weekend it was that the Jags man D wouldn’t perform well against the pass, so he beat them that way.  To me what is more reasonable is that Brady has shown himself adept at adapting.

I hope you’re right. I’m a huge believer in Joe Brady. In fact, you can find posts on this here message board, from 2019, with me signing his praises (humble brag). He’s just so good at designing an offense. He may be able to remain one step ahead. I hope so. Unfortunately, I think he will be the HC somewhere next year if this continues. The Bears feel like a logical fit. 
 

On a side note, I encourage people to go back and watch that 2019 LSU offense. They were INCREDIBLE. He had a ton of talent on that team but they ran free everywhere. I think that I’m ready to call them the best college team that I’ve ever seen. 

Edited September 28 by Kirby Jackson

[Rocky Landing]

This "first read" stat that is being brought up is useless, and utterly without context. Will Levis, eh? I imagine if Tua were still on the field, he would lead the league in that stat. Perhaps if Allen were getting sacked, or holding the ball too long, or throwing it away constantly, I'd look at that as something meaningful. But he's not. If you're using that stat as some sort of proof regarding our receivers, I think you're stretching.

 

I think back to week two where Josh ignored his first two, wide open reads to hit Ty Johnson at the one yard line. I'll take Josh Allen throwing to his best read over his first read as he sees fit all day long.

[Alphadawg7]

53 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I didn't say the players are producing as I expected. Production as you note is volatile and highly context driven especially with such a small sample size. I said they are all performing the role that I expected.

 

You're conflating offensive performance with WR performance. As I've admitted quite a few times I was wrong to believe that the offense couldn't perform at a top level with middling WR talent. I was skeptical that Brady could make it work. I was wrong. He is taking WRs with somewhat limited skill sets and he is putting them in positions where those skill sets shine.

 

Also just keep in mind this conversation is relative to the entire NFL. I am not saying the WRs we have are untalented. Nobody that makes an NFL roster and gets on the field is untalented. We are looking at it within the scope of the entire league. Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman would never be on the field together for like 90% of offenses out there because there would be other players above them on the depth chart. The impressive thing is that Brady has found a way to put them on the field and draw up plays that work for their skill set.

 

Gotcha, I misunderstood your context when you said as you expected, so apologies for the confusion on that.

 

And my main point is isn't about how a player would play in another circumstance, it is only about how those players play in this circumstance.  For example, how relevant would Julian Edelman had been if he did not play with Brady and NE?  Probably not very, if at all, yet he was a valuable piece for those teams.  It is why I have made a similar case for Brock Purdy where people kept minimizing what he was doing saying its just because of Shannahan's system.  Meanwhile their expensive investments into Jimmy G and Trey Lance were not able to replicate the same kind of production and results Purdy is.  Does it matter that Purdy wouldn't be "as good" elsewhere or just that he is that good where he is at?

 

And that is where I land.  The GM has literally just one job and that is to put the players on the roster that fit what the coaches want to do.  Its what made teams like NE and Pats into dynasties as well...and right now, its pretty hard to argue that Beane has not done the same thing with the players around Josh right now in regards to what Brady is asking them to do.  

 

So while a lot of people are fixating on what they perceive certain players "can't" do, they are totally missing how great they are doing at what they can do and are being asked to do.  And to me, that is far more important than anything else.  

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I said the Bills are better because they have a more flexible offense without Diggs being feed 170 times a season and the results speak for themselves.  

 

There are two conversations here. The first is about Diggs the person. I advocated for moving on from him well before the Bills actually did. I got sick of his act and how he was clearly affecting the chemistry of the team. This year Josh clearly looks a lot more comfortable and a lot more free on the field. I can't say there's a 100% correlation there, but definitely there is some kind of correlation. Getting Diggs out of this locker room and out of Josh's head has been a clear improvement.

 

The second conversation is about Diggs the WR. This is where you lose me. There is a pervasive belief on here that every #1 WR is a locker room problem and/or a ball hog. I don't agree with that at all. I've even see people say that about DeAndre Hopkins in the thread about him. Maybe I missed something but when has Hopkins ever been a locker room problem?

 

I don't want a WR that needs to be fed the ball 170 times a season, but it's sure nice to have one that has the ability to take over games when you need somebody to. So far no one other than Josh has needed to take over a game. If or when that is needed, there is reason to doubt that the current personnel can step up to the task. But like I've said that isn't a problem until it becomes one. Maybe we'll keep threading that needle all the way to the Super Bowl. I certainly have more optimism about that possibility now than I ever thought I would.

 

Edited September 28 by HappyDays

[Nephilim17]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because in football there are high leverage moments time and again when everyone knows what you want to do. And in those moments scheme can only do so much. It comes down to mano vs mano and your guy has to beat theirs. And teams use the sideline as the extra defender and protect with inside leverage so that is where the opportunity is. You have to have the players to take it.

I'm trying to understand this better in terms of what exact physical traits and skills we lack this year compared with last.

Diggs is an outside receiver and is the same size as Shakir; Diggs is slower but has longer arms. Is the arm length the difference here? And Diggs wasn't exactly a contested-catch specialist (43.5% in 2023)

Davis is a touch smaller than Coleman but maybe a touch faster. Most would expect Coleman to have better and more consistent hands. What does Davis have.. that we don't have/need to see in Coleman? Davis' contested catch rate in 2023 was 35.7% — not great. He's got a couple memorable toe-drag catches but I can't believe that's the only difference, body control. If so, we've seen tape of outstanding body control from Coleman.

MVS has size and speed. Yes, he's not reliable (in the regular season; I believe I've read he's never had a post-season drop, which is impressive).

So, not being sarcastic at all, but trying to understand: what did Diggs and Davis have last year that we lack this year? Or...  maybe the point is that Diggs and Davis were not a very good tandem of outside players, at least not for a team with championship aspirations. Even if so, please define the traits we need in outside players for this offense to take the next step.

 

I appreciate your opinion. Thanks.

[gonzo1105]

I just don’t think if you want add in the trade market there is a # 1 guy. I don’t think Higgins is that guy and I don’t think Hopkins is that guy anymore as well. I don’t think these guys take over games. 
 

I would also like to see how this offense continues to evolve before moving on someone else 

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I just don’t think if you want add in the trade market there is a # 1 guy. I don’t think Higgins is that guy and I don’t think Hopkins is that guy anymore as well. I don’t think these guys take over games. 
 

I would also like to see how this offense continues to evolve before moving on someone else 

I think there's a legitimate argument to be made that the chemistry is this particular group shouldn't be messed with

 

I also believe talent>scheme is an NFL truism

 

It's going to be a very interesting year watching this offense

[gonzo1105]

I just want to add if you’re a college football fan, and want a WR next year take a look at Tre Harris dude is a monster. Might not make it to Buffalo tho at this rate 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Daboll with our OL would be great.  I don’t think McDermott would bring him back though.  They obviously don’t like each other.

 

Im out on Daboll.  He has been always allergic to running the football.  He even cost himself a win against the Bills last year over it.  You are on the 1 yard line, final play of the game, your backup QB is playing who has not been known for great vision in Tyrod, and your best player on the field is Saquan Barkley.  What does Daboll do...drop TT back and throw over the middle, not even give TT a play where he can roll out and run it in if the pass wasn't there.  Just straight bet the game on TT's arm who isn't very tall to throw over the trenches for his one shot.  That was the most Daboll thing ever.  

 

When he was here it was maddening how stubborn he could be and called games it felt more like for his ego than smart football decisions at times.  Would I take Daboll over Dorsey...100 times over.  But if Brady leaves, Daboll isn't the guy I think that would be the right fit to come back. 

 

Honestly, one of the biggest differences through the first 3 weeks this year for me is how in sync it feels like McD and both is coordinators are.  Like for the first time in McD's tenure here I think this is true.  So if Brady gets plucked, I think it will be very important to find another OC that is on the same page with McD like Brady and Babich have really been thus far.

 

7 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I just want to add if you’re a college football fan, and want a WR next year take a look at Tre Harris dude is a monster. Might not make it to Buffalo tho at this rate 

 

One good thing about next year though is we have the draft capital and assets to make a move to get a guy they covet if they want.

Edited September 28 by Alphadawg7

[NewEra]

16 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

You clearly  don't get it

 

What you are proposing is that having a top WR somehow makes teams less successful

 

Which is nonsense

I think that he’s proposing that it CAN make teams less successful.  Still too early to tell in our case, but it’s trending to be the case with the Bills.  
 

Diggs was in Josh’s head (Josh has basically said so much himself) and it seemed to have had a negative effect on our offense at times.  

[GETTOTHE50]

59 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I hope you’re right. I’m a huge believer in Joe Brady. In fact, you can find posts on this here message board, from 2019, with me signing his praises (humble brag). He’s just so good at designing an offense. He may be able to remain one step ahead. I hope so. Unfortunately, I think he will be the HC somewhere next year if this continues. The Bears feel like a logical fit. 
 

On a side note, I encourage people to go back and watch that 2019 LSU offense. They were INCREDIBLE. He had a ton of talent on that team but they ran free everywhere. I think that I’m ready to call them the best college team that I’ve ever seen. 

Wouldn’t be surprised if Cinci hires him after they fire their head coach. Might as well get the band back together 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

Wouldn’t be surprised if Cinci hires him after they fire their head coach. Might as well get the band back together 

That’s an interesting thought. I think Taylor is safe but who knows if it spirals. 

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Okay, then back to the question. Which plays have they made, that an average NFL WR wouldn’t have made? They’ve done what’s been asked of them but it isn’t much. They’re on pace for 180 catches and less than 2,000 yards. I don’t know how we can call that above fine. 

 

Projected receiving stats based on 3 games-  2 of which were complete blowouts and over by half time.  

 

Josh is one off the passing TD lead and our offense is scoring 9 more points per game than the 3rd highest scoring team.

it’s still very early and we’ve played some poor defenses-  but I don’t think those projections you list carry any relevance 

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I think that he’s proposing that it CAN make teams less successful.  Still too early to tell in our case, but it’s trending to be the case with the Bills.  
 

Diggs was in Josh’s head (Josh has basically said so much himself) and it seemed to have had a negative effect on our offense at times.  

I always appreciated diggs the player

 

Thru 3 games I may have not appreciated the effect to which Diggs the person negatively impacted the offense

 

I just typically don't put as much stock in unquantifiable things like chemistry as I do in talent and production is all

[Kirby Jackson]

13 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Projected receiving stats based on 3 games-  2 of which were complete blowouts and over by half time.  

 

Josh is one off the passing TD lead and our offense is scoring 9 more points per game than the 3rd highest scoring team.

it’s still very early and we’ve played some poor defenses-  but I don’t think those projections you list carry any relevance 

Do I think it happens like this all year? Probably not. Is that statistic factually accurate? Yes. Everything else, both good and bad, is speculation. Just because we don’t like it, doesn’t mean it is false. With this garbage Ravens pass defense, I expect us to see these numbers trending up as soon as tomorrow.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

Now it’s first read throw percentage, a stat I have never even seen before but see it here as a way to criticize.  

 

Sorry that you haven't seen that stat before. The reason it's measured is that (and this goes without saying) QBs are less efficient when throwing the ball beyond their first read. Some are affected more than others of course. For example it's been a known weakness in Tua's game that his efficiency drops off a cliff when forced past his first read. For that reason it's notable that the Bills are the NFL's most efficient offense while being dead last in first read percentage.

 

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2023/first-read-targets-and-fantasy-football#/

 

Quote

Passers averaged 7.9 YPA on first reads, and just 6.9 YPA on all other throws. That’s a full yard more if the offense can execute “Plan A.”

 

5.1% of first-read throws result in touchdowns, compared to just 3.5% of all other throws. In other words, first reads result in scoring 45% more often.

 

in 2022, 80.6% of targets coming on the first read were deemed catchable. Of all other targets, just 76.9% were catchable. QBs and play-callers alike would prefer to stick to the first read as much as possible.

 

As a point of reference, the difference between 7.9 YPA and 6.9 YPA was the difference between the 5th best QB and the 20th best QB last year.

 

This is what the article concludes after some statistical analysis:

 

Quote

If target share can be taken as an approximation of player skill, we might flip the assumed causal chain from earlier. Maybe it is not that certain QBs and schemes lead to first reads, which funnel targets to WRs and away from RBs. Instead, perhaps good receivers allow teams to throw on the first read more often – because good receivers get open when they’re on the first read. The team’s WR2 (measured by target share) having the strongest relationship to overall first read throw rate buoys this argument – being able to have two competent WRs working on the first read (which, remember, is more often an area of the field than a single player’s route) makes it much more likely one will get open.

 

I don't mean to use this stat to criticize. I commend Josh, Brady, and the OL for making this sort of inherently less efficient style the most efficient offense in the NFL. I credit the pass catchers for executing on the plays that go to them. But there is an implication here that we are not throwing to the first read a lot because of skill position talent deficiency.

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Projected receiving stats based on 3 games-  2 of which were complete blowouts and over by half time.  

 

Josh is one off the passing TD lead and our offense is scoring 9 more points per game than the 3rd highest scoring team.

it’s still very early and we’ve played some poor defenses-  but I don’t think those projections you list carry any relevance 

 

Too many are going to live with past and projected stats.  I tried to speak some to this, but alas I failed.

 

Personally, I was not sure how the WR room would play this year.  I know Beane would have done more if he could, but he had a lot of 

things to consider.  Anyone with an unbiased eye can see the offense has changed and is functioning at a pretty high level.

It's up to the guys to keep it going and adapt when confronted with defensive adjustments.

 

I think Brady, Josh and the guys can do good this year and I expect another high round WR pick next draft.

The Ravens have a challenge on their hands tomorrow and I can't wait to see how it comes out.

[HappyDays]

36 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I think that he’s proposing that it CAN make teams less successful.  Still too early to tell in our case, but it’s trending to be the case with the Bills.  
 

Diggs was in Josh’s head (Josh has basically said so much himself) and it seemed to have had a negative effect on our offense at times.  

 

Having an elite talent on the field can't make a team worse. That doesn't make any sense.

 

Having a headcase loser on the field/in the locker room can make a team worse.

 

Diggs leaving and the offense performing better is not evidence that having elite WRs on the field is worse for an offense.