I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Kirby Jackson]

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

I'll say it,. no thanks.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

I'll say it,. no thanks.

I don’t think that he’d be my choice either. That’s not a contract that I want to pay but like his skill set with this group. I think I’d rather Adams with the big dollars. If they’re looking for a more moderately priced option Hopkins would be my choice. I don’t hate the idea of Diontae Johnson cheap either.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

I don't answer your questions...because they're frankly pretty bad.  

The question of whether you guarantee this offense will struggle late in the year after you alluded to it twice is a bad question?  We both know its not a bad question and we both know why you didn’t answer it.

 

Not to mention you also referenced the the Bills WR core is the reason we can’t go downfield and I replied with several stats indicating downfield passing is a league problem….I mean its all there.  Why didn’t you answer that one?  Or is that a bad question?  Are all questions bad?

Edited Saturday at 04:53 PM by Royale with Cheese

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t think that he’d be my choice either. That’s not a contract that I want to pay but like his skill set with this group. I think I’d rather Adams with the big dollars. If they’re looking for a more moderately priced option Hopkins would be my choice. I don’t hate the idea of Diontae Johnson cheap either.

I wasn't a Tee fan out of college. he was mocked to us often in 2020 and I hated it then.

 

He is a good player, but he is Courtland Sutton+. I think there is a world where Coleman is at least an equal player if not better sooner rather than later.

 

I have come around to the idea of not paying WR's unless they are like top 5-10 guys or comfortably outside the top 20-30. The team that gives Tee $25M is going to regret it I think.

 

My ideal WR strategy is for Beane and co. to draft a WR in the first next year with #1 potential, and then be prepared to make a hard decision about Shakir if he is getting $20M offers.

[Tim Tindale]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Which plays have the WRs made that a replacement level guy (think Isaiah Hodgins) wouldn’t have made? Shakir’s run after the catch for the TD is the only play this year that I can think of. That’s why they’ve been “fine.” They’ve done what they have been asked to do but rarely (1 time) did something that every other average NFL player wouldn’t do. 

I disagree. I think “fine” minimizes just how difficult it is for an offense to look this seamless. Everything looks easy.  I’m sure most of us have played sports who are fans.  How often have you been on teams - or faced teams - that execute on an elite level and make it look easy?  It’s rare, but especially at the professional level.

 

For that to be true, I’d submit that the pieces in aggregate aren’t “fine”.  They are doing their jobs extraordinarily well, and most likely, the pieces fit together uniquely symbiotically.  My hunch is that not any NFL WR can be plugged in with the same result. After all, Diggs and Gabe, in the same offense, made everything look hard and it was a grind even in the back half of last year.

 

I respectfully disagree with the assessment of “fine”.  When it looks this easy, the pieces are fitting uniquely well. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

I wasn't a Tee fan out of college. he was mocked to us often in 2020 and I hated it then.

 

He is a good player, but he is Courtland Sutton+. I think there is a world where Coleman is at least an equal player if not better sooner rather than later.

 

I have come around to the idea of not paying WR's unless they are like top 5-10 guys or comfortably outside the top 20-30. The team that gives Tee $25M is going to regret it I think.

 

My ideal WR strategy is for Beane and co. to draft a WR in the first next year with #1 potential, and then be prepared to make a hard decision about Shakir if he is getting $20M offers.

I think that is the play too. There are levels to this too. Nabers/MHJ are not the same as Coleman/McConkey. I’d be perfectly fine using the 1st and 1 of the 2nds (and a future pick if needed) to get up for Luther Burden or Tetairoa McMillain. I’m of the belief that the Bills don’t need bodies, they need “a guy.” Sure, they can add another guy and upgrade from Hollins/MVS but that doesn’t move the needle. It makes them a little better as opposed to scary. There were rumors that they loved Nabers. Picture if they had made a move to get him!! If they get an elite guy that opens up so much for everyone else. It hasn’t been an issue yet but we will see. 

[harryS]

Re: Badolbilz and the WRs

 

No mea culpa needed yet.  It's definitely fair for him to say to wait for Jan/Feb.  What really matters is playoff football, and D-coordinators do make adjustments over the course of the season.  Frankly, because it's only been 3 games, I think it's still more likely than not that Badolbilz will end up looking more right than wrong re: the WRs.

 

However, I would say it's past due for Badolbilz to admit that firing Ken Dorsey and putting in Joe Brady was an upgrade, despite Dorsey being a former Cane.  It's not waaay past due yet, but the milk is starting to emit a funky smell.   (And here we do have at least some small sample playoff data.  Under Dorsey, the Bills put up 10 points at home in an embarrassing loss to the Bengals.  While Brady lost to the Chiefs, his offense went up and down the field on KC all game but was let down by the defense.)

[eball]

11 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

"Bad" isn't the right word. I would say they're doing fine.

 

Nobody can come in here and post 30 all-22 clips showing that the WRs aren't really playing above the scheme (the notable exception being Shakir after the catch). Here's a stat that I think at least implies that notion though:

 

So Allen is dead last in the NFL at throwing to his first read, only 55.6% of the time. It's an interesting stat that can probably be interpreted in a few different ways. What it tells me is that our WRs are not getting quick separation. Allen is having to move on but luckily he has been going though progressions at an elite level, the OL is holding up long enough for him to do that, and Brady's schemed route combinations are working well enough that somebody is eventually coming open along the natural progression. It's unicorn caliber that we're the NFL's most efficient offense while going to our 1st read barely half the time. That sort of thing just doesn't happen, but Allen and Brady are finding a way, and the WRs are executing just enough to make it work.

 

I know you don't believe those of us who say the WRs are meeting our offseason expectations, but it really is the case. I expected Shakir to have 4-5 targets per game and have elite YAC production. I expected Hollins to be mostly a blocking WR. I expected MVS to replicate his role with the Chiefs. I expected Coleman to be brought along slowly and only contribute here and there. Shakir I'll say has moderately exceeded my expectations only because a 100% catch rate is ridiculous and I have to give him some flowers for that. Samuel on the other hand has moderately fallen short of my expectations. So across the board I would say the room as a whole has met my expectations.

 

What has really exceeded my expectations so far are Josh Allen (improbably), the pass protection, and most of all Joe Brady. Those specific ingredients have been so good that they are masking the deficiencies. I'm not going to hedge myself and predict that the offense will fall off. I am flat out very impressed by the whole operation and I see signs that it is in fact sustainable and is in fact championship caliber. Still I stand by my view that the WR room specifically is below average relative to the rest of the league.

 

It’s really nice to read a thoughtful post that isn’t full of “I’m smarter than you” and “I know football better than you.”  Thank you.

 

I don’t think very many people have suggested that the Bills’ WRs are more talented than other teams’ WRs — I certainly haven’t.  What I think a lot of us are seeing, though, is that they don’t necessarily have to be if the scheme is good and you have an elite distributor of the football.

 

It’s a “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” argument.

 

We will all see what happens when the Bills are in a close game and need a 4th quarter drive.

 

In any event, it’s hard to argue that the early results are promising.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Tim Tindale said:

I disagree. I think “fine” minimizes just how difficult it is for an offense to look this seamless. Everything looks easy.  I’m sure most of us have played sports who are fans.  How often have you been on teams - or faced teams - that execute on an elite level and make it look easy?  It’s rare, but especially at the professional level.

 

For that to be true, I’d submit that the pieces in aggregate aren’t “fine”.  They are doing their jobs extraordinarily well, and most likely, the pieces fit together uniquely symbiotically.  My hunch is that not any NFL WR can be plugged in with the same result. After all, Diggs and Gabe, in the same offense, made everything look hard and it was a grind even in the back half of last year.

 

I respectfully disagree with the assessment of “fine”.  When it looks this easy, the pieces are fitting uniquely well. 

Okay, then back to the question. Which plays have they made, that an average NFL WR wouldn’t have made? They’ve done what’s been asked of them but it isn’t much. They’re on pace for 180 catches and less than 2,000 yards. I don’t know how we can call that above fine. 

1 minute ago, eball said:

 

It’s really nice to read a thoughtful post that isn’t full of “I’m smarter than you” and “I know football better than you.”  Thank you.

 

I don’t think very many people have suggested that the Bills’ WRs are more talented than other teams’ WRs — I certainly haven’t.  What I think a lot of us are seeing, though, is that they don’t necessarily have to be if the scheme is good and you have an elite distributor of the football.

 

It’s a “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” argument.

 

We will all see what happens when the Bills are in a close game and need a 4th quarter drive.

 

In any event, it’s hard to argue that the early results are promising.

 

Well said @eball and I think that is why this thread can go on for another 2,000 pages. The offense has been awesome. The passing game has been quite good. Do you need elite WRs to have a great passing game? As of now, they have not. Just because those guys haven’t been needed yet doesn’t mean that they’ve been great. They’ve done what’s asked of them. Can they upgrade there? Absolutely, and don’t think anyone would argue that. Will they need to? That remains to be seen. This week they play a bad pass defense and may need to exploit that.

[Alphadawg7]

42 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Which plays have the WRs made that a replacement level guy (think Isaiah Hodgins) wouldn’t have made? Shakir’s run after the catch for the TD is the only play this year that I can think of. That’s why they’ve been “fine.” They’ve done what they have been asked to do but rarely (1 time) did something that every other average NFL player wouldn’t do. 

 

That is the only play you can think of that any scrub WR couldn't have made?  No disrespect, but I have no idea how you can say that with a straight face.  I mean Shakir alone has made a number of them including other TD catches than just that one.

 

So any scrub is going to win his one on one battle with that much separation that Coleman got for his TD?  Any scrub is going to go up with that body control and catch that deep shot Coleman caught week 1?   Any scrub is going to catch ball for a 3 yard gain and get smashed by a defender but bounce off him and run the ball up for double digit yards and a first down like Shakir did?  Any scrub is going to catch a short pass and ping pong his way for a TD rolling over a defender and stretching out to get the TD like Shakir did week 1?  Any scrub is going to run a text book perfect route for the TD week 1 that Hollins did?  Any scrub is going to catch some of the tough throws Shakir caught over the middle?  Any scrub is going to set an NFL record for catching 27 straight targets?  

 

Do you even know how wild that statement is that you are saying any "replacement level" WR would have made every play except the one TD by Shakir?  It totally fine you are not yet sold after 3 weeks, but some of these comments like this are just wildly extreme and not reflective of what we saw the first 3 weeks.

 

For example...so why weren't Harty and Sherfield making these same plays last year?  Why wasn't Davis or even Diggs for that matter?   I find it very interesting that this is the best start and best 3 game stretch of Allens career and its not close...while you say its the worst group he has worked with and that any scrub WR's could be on the field getting the same results.  

 

This notion you can plug any low level guy into this offense and somehow this offense would be this good is a wild take to me.  What you and many others are sorely missing is that this group is built to compliment each other and compliment this scheme...and that is across the board, not just in the WR room.  Its them, the TE's, the RB, and the OL all built to run this offense.  And thus far, they are doing so at a very high level through 3 weeks.  To suggest any low quality players can be plugged into all their roles at the receiver position and get the same results is just a false reality IMHO.

 

Edited Saturday at 04:00 PM by Alphadawg7

[Tim Tindale]

10 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Okay, then back to the question. Which plays have they made, that an average NFL WR wouldn’t have made? They’ve done what’s been asked of them but it isn’t much. They’re on pace for 180 catches and less than 2,000 yards. I don’t know how we can call that above fine. 

 

I actually don’t think we are that far apart, but I’m in shock at how open some of these targets (RB’s, WR’s, and TE’s) are running.  Not to mention, this team is always in an advantageous position - 2nd or 3rd and short.  That tells me that a lot is going right to make this look easy - scheme, run-blocking, protection, etc.  But, a lot is clearly happening as fans we cannot see, especially at the WR position, including crisp, efficient route running, run blocking (and likely some blocking after the catch), no drops, no illegal motion, no taking plays off, no making terrible decisions on option routes (looking at you Gabe).  In other words, no eye candy that you would point to as a splash play, but notion that this is plug and play… Steph and Gabe couldn’t do it and other teams aren’t doing it. 
 

But, the eye test says “man, these guys are running wide open”.  Josh is putting the ball on target, of course, and making the right decision with the ball.  This is as wide open as I can recall our targets being on game day.  Some of this has to be very efficient route running, which we as fans would not appreciate. 

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that is the play too. There are levels to this too. Nabers/MHJ are not the same as Coleman/McConkey. I’d be perfectly fine using the 1st and 1 of the 2nds (and a future pick if needed) to get up for Luther Burden or Tetairoa McMillain. I’m of the belief that the Bills don’t need bodies, they need “a guy.” Sure, they can add another guy and upgrade from Hollins/MVS but that doesn’t move the needle. It makes them a little better as opposed to scary. There were rumors that they loved Nabers. Picture if they had made a move to get him!! If they get an elite guy that opens up so much for everyone else. It hasn’t been an issue yet but we will see. 

Yeah that's one strategy. But even then, if Burden is like Devonta Smith level, I don't know if it's a good idea to pay them and then you are spending 2-3 high assets on one guy for 5 years. Which is maybe smart to maximize Josh's prime but I don't know about long-term success.

 

I have long argued for the "stable of targets" approach.  Take 1 WR every year or every other year in rounds 1-3 like the Steelers did. Starting from 2017, the best WR's from each class have been:

 

2017 Pick 69 or 84

2018 Pick 24 or 26

2019 Pick 36 or 51 or 64 or 76

2020 Pick 17 or 22 or 25

2021 Pick 5, 6, 10, 89, 112

2022 Pick 8, 10, 11, 52

2023 Pick 20, 23, 50, 55, 69

 

And 2024 is too early to tell.

 

So while in the most recent years, WR's have been top heavy which will likely continue, there's still plus players scattered all over the draft and enough non-top 10 picks end up being stars.

 

I'm okay with not having a true #1 if we have 2-3 guys who would be in the top 45. And if one of them pops into a top 10 WR, then that's the guy you pay. Otherwise, you let the Mike Wallace's and Emmanuel Sanders of the world walk.

 

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

24 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Okay, then back to the question. Which plays have they made, that an average NFL WR wouldn’t have made? They’ve done what’s been asked of them but it isn’t much. They’re on pace for 180 catches and less than 2,000 yards. I don’t know how we can call that above fine. 

 

If an OC can just draw up to plays to get average WR open and where average WR can catch the ball, then why make the argument we need a true #1?

 

Josh Allen is 26th in the NFL in passing attempts....you know that factors into.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yeah that's one strategy. But even then, if Burden is like Devonta Smith level, I don't know if it's a good idea to pay them and then you are spending 2-3 high assets on one guy for 5 years. Which is maybe smart to maximize Josh's prime but I don't know about long-term success.

 

I have long argued for the "stable of targets" approach.  Take 1 WR every year or every other year in rounds 1-3 like the Steelers did. Starting from 2017, the best WR's from each class have been:

 

2017 Pick 69 or 84

2018 Pick 24 or 26

2019 Pick 36 or 51 or 64 or 76

2020 Pick 17 or 22 or 25

2021 Pick 5, 6, 10, 89, 112

2022 Pick 8, 10, 11, 52

2023 Pick 20, 23, 50, 55, 69

 

And 2024 is too early to tell.

 

So while in the most recent years, WR's have been top heavy which will likely continue, there's still plus players scattered all over the draft and enough non-top 10 picks end up being stars.

 

I'm okay with not having a true #1 if we have 2-3 guys who would be in the top 45. And if one of them pops into a top 10 WR, then that's the guy you pay. Otherwise, you let the Mike Wallace's and Emmanuel Sanders of the world walk.

 

 

 

That’s fair. I’m more in the “maximize Josh’s prime” camp. I think he will end up as the best player to ever put on the Bills uniform. Bruce is the only guy that is definitely ahead of him at this point. He’s unquestionably the best QB that we’ve ever had.
 

I’m of the belief that priority one is talent around him. It looks like they’ve found their OL. They will need to keep taking backs because you can’t give them a second contract. I liked the Kincaid pick. They had to take WR this year. I’m on record as thinking that Keon Coleman isn’t the guy. I hope to be wrong there. I’d love to give Josh what he had when Diggs got here, with this group as the support pieces. Shakir and Kincaid would be strong 2nd and 3rd options. You’d have Samuel as chess piece and Coleman developing into hopefully the early Gabe Davis role. MVS and Hollins would be fine options at the back of your depth chart. Unfortunately, we aren’t going to get a look at that under Brady unless a trade is made. He will be a HC next year (Bears maybe).

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If an OC can just draw up to plays to get average WR open and where average WR can catch the ball, then why make the argument we need a true #1?

 

Josh Allen is 26th in the NFL in passing attempts....you know that factors into.

 

Fair

 

I guess that I’m convinced that Brady is gone after this year. I also think that he has been the reason that guys are open. The OL has been great and Josh has been elite at getting through his reads according to @HappyDays post earlier. If team adjust and/or Brady gets a HC job this might change. It’s still the least talented position on the roster. The Bills have a 1st and a couple of seconds. At least one of those picks will go to WR again. They’ve done what’s asked of them but haven’t done anything, with the exception of Shakir’s run after catch, that an average WR wouldn’t have done. 

[Alphadawg7]

56 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t think that he’d be my choice either. That’s not a contract that I want to pay but like his skill set with this group. I think I’d rather Adams with the big dollars. If they’re looking for a more moderately priced option Hopkins would be my choice. I don’t hate the idea of Diontae Johnson cheap either.

 

Adams was complaining after a win last year when he didn't get the ball enough in that win.  He would be a terrible fit in this offense right now.  He is still a top level talent, but from a fit stand point he would hate not being the feature and he is also not known for doing all the dirty work either.  If I made a list of the worst fits for this team right now he would be at or near the top.  

 

Personally, I don't think there is any chance we bring someone in unless a significant injury happens or the offense begins to struggle at the WR position over the weeks leading up to the trade deadline.  But...if that did happen and we did make a move, I could see Diontae being a more realistic target than the other guys being mentioned here.

[Royale with Cheese]

11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s fair. I’m more in the “maximize Josh’s prime” camp. I think he will end up as the best player to ever put on the Bills uniform. Bruce is the only guy that is definitely ahead of him at this point. He’s unquestionably the best QB that we’ve ever had.
 

I’m of the belief that priority one is talent around him. It looks like they’ve found their OL. They will need to keep taking backs because you can’t give them a second contract. I liked the Kincaid pick. They had to take WR this year. I’m on record as thinking that Keon Coleman isn’t the guy. I hope to be wrong there. I’d love to give Josh what he had when Diggs got here, with this group as the support pieces. Shakir and Kincaid would be strong 2nd and 3rd options. You’d have Samuel as chess piece and Coleman developing into hopefully the early Gabe Davis role. MVS and Hollins would be fine options at the back of your depth chart. Unfortunately, we aren’t going to get a look at that under Brady unless a trade is made. He will be a HC next year (Bears maybe).

Fair

 

I guess that I’m convinced that Brady is gone after this year. I also think that he has been the reason that guys are open. The OL has been great and Josh has been elite at getting through his reads according to @HappyDays post earlier. If team adjust and/or Brady gets a HC job this might change. It’s still the least talented position on the roster. The Bills have a 1st and a couple of seconds. At least one of those picks will go to WR again. They’ve done what’s asked of them but haven’t done anything, with the exception of Shakir’s run after catch, that an average WR wouldn’t have done. 

You just gotta hope we have succession plans if that’s the case.  Im not sure who is ready and under Brady. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I wasn't a Tee fan out of college. he was mocked to us often in 2020 and I hated it then.

 

He is a good player, but he is Courtland Sutton+. I think there is a world where Coleman is at least an equal player if not better sooner rather than later.

 

I have come around to the idea of not paying WR's unless they are like top 5-10 guys or comfortably outside the top 20-30. The team that gives Tee $25M is going to regret it I think.

 

My ideal WR strategy is for Beane and co. to draft a WR in the first next year with #1 potential, and then be prepared to make a hard decision about Shakir if he is getting $20M offers.

I agree with all this for the most part, although I wasn’t as down on Higgins coming out as you said you were and was fine drafting him if he would have been our pick even though there were others I preferred.  
 

In terms of the tough decision on Shakir though, I will go on record now and say that IMHO Shakir will not be going anywhere.  Josh and this team love him and he is going to get a second contract IMHO.  In fact, I believe Beane will try and extend him early like he has with others before his price tag gets too high in FA.  

Edited Saturday at 04:53 PM by Alphadawg7

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I agree with all this for the most part, although I wasn’t as down on Higgins coming out as you said you were and was fine drafting him if he would have been our pick even though there were others I preferred.  
 

In terms of the tough decision on Shakir though, I will go on record now and say that IMHO Shakir will not be going anywhere.  Josh and this team love him and he is going to get a second contract IMHO.  In fact, I believe Beane will try and extend him early like he has with others before his price tag gets too high in FA.  

what are you thinking they will offer Shakir?

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

what are you thinking they will offer Shakir?

 

Renfrow got 2 years $32m from the Raiders. $16m AAV. That was a couple of years ago but for a true slot (which Shakir is IMO and Renfrow was) I think that is the market plus inflation. I reckon that probably puts him in and around the $20m per range. I could see something like 4 years, $78m, $19.5 AAV as being his market if he has the sort of year he is on pace for this year (around 1,000 yards). Give it two years of that sort of production and another year of inflation and let him hit FA and he may go even slightly above that with another team.

 

EDIT: to be clear I am not saying he is a MUST sign at that price. It is high for a slot receiver for me and if in the crunch they still struggle without an outside guy I'd be wary. But that is a realistic look at his market IMO.

Edited Saturday at 05:08 PM by GunnerBill