I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[gonzo1105]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Actually it did.  Which offense looks better to you?  The feed the Diggs monster 170 times but he only catches 65% or the current offense where the top 5 receivers catch 80+% of his catches.  
 

So who are the top receivers in the NFL?  How are their teams doing so far? It’s mixed.  Lamb?  His Cowboys are 1-2.  Chase?  Cinn 0-3?  Nabers? Giants 1-3. Jefferson is 3-0, Collins 1-2.  Having a top WR obviously isn’t enough to guarantee a top offense.  

 

I do believe spending 30+ million dollars a season when you have an elite QB is dumb in my opinion. Just gotta make sure your keeping the cupboard full of younger talented players.

[NeverOutNick]

3 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

I do believe spending 30+ million dollars a season when you have an elite QB is dumb in my opinion. Just gotta make sure your keeping the cupboard full of younger talented players.

Exactly draft 2-3 new WRs each year some will stick and some won’t but it’s such an expensive position you have to do this when you have your franchise QB

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, Simon said:

What if he's also blessed with legit playmakers at both TE and RB. And a great group of blockers he can count on?

I think that maybe he can overcome an average WR room.

 

Lot of if's though.  Not impossible, but need to see it when they're locked in a close game.  

 

As in, the guy who becomes their go-to receiver in obvious passing downs.  Would like to think it's Kincaid because he's a former first round pick and is probably the most talented of the WR/TE.  

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Actually it did.  Which offense looks better to you?  The feed the Diggs monster 170 times but he only catches 65% or the current offense where the top 5 receivers catch 80+% of his catches.  
 

So who are the top receivers in the NFL?  How are their teams doing so far? It’s mixed.  Lamb?  His Cowboys are 1-2.  Chase?  Cinn 0-3?  Nabers? Giants 1-3. Jefferson is 3-0, Collins 1-2.  Having a top WR obviously isn’t enough to guarantee a top offense.  

it's just a poor grasp of causality

 

the existence of an elite wideout on a bad team isn't proof elite wideouts cause poor records any more than the existence of a firetruck at a burning house is proof firemen cause fires

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

So unless you or anyone else can produce video evidence of our WRs being limited, struggling to do their jobs, etc then there is not an argument to be made that this group is playing bad these first three weeks.  

 

"Bad" isn't the right word. I would say they're doing fine.

 

Nobody can come in here and post 30 all-22 clips showing that the WRs aren't really playing above the scheme (the notable exception being Shakir after the catch). Here's a stat that I think at least implies that notion though:

 

So Allen is dead last in the NFL at throwing to his first read, only 55.6% of the time. It's an interesting stat that can probably be interpreted in a few different ways. What it tells me is that our WRs are not getting quick separation. Allen is having to move on but luckily he has been going though progressions at an elite level, the OL is holding up long enough for him to do that, and Brady's schemed route combinations are working well enough that somebody is eventually coming open along the natural progression. It's unicorn caliber that we're the NFL's most efficient offense while going to our 1st read barely half the time. That sort of thing just doesn't happen, but Allen and Brady are finding a way, and the WRs are executing just enough to make it work.

 

I know you don't believe those of us who say the WRs are meeting our offseason expectations, but it really is the case. I expected Shakir to have 4-5 targets per game and have elite YAC production. I expected Hollins to be mostly a blocking WR. I expected MVS to replicate his role with the Chiefs. I expected Coleman to be brought along slowly and only contribute here and there. Shakir I'll say has moderately exceeded my expectations only because a 100% catch rate is ridiculous and I have to give him some flowers for that. Samuel on the other hand has moderately fallen short of my expectations. So across the board I would say the room as a whole has met my expectations.

 

What has really exceeded my expectations so far are Josh Allen (improbably), the pass protection, and most of all Joe Brady. Those specific ingredients have been so good that they are masking the deficiencies. I'm not going to hedge myself and predict that the offense will fall off. I am flat out very impressed by the whole operation and I see signs that it is in fact sustainable and is in fact championship caliber. Still I stand by my view that the WR room specifically is below average relative to the rest of the league.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

I think the thing they deserve credit for so far is that when the ball has been thrown to them they have caught it. That was a huge problem with the Bills past teams. We are efficient staying ahead of the chains

 

This is an underrated talking point and should be brought up more. The best thing the Bills offense is doing is limiting mistakes. I would consider big mistakes as turnovers, drops, and offensive linemen getting beaten off the snap. We had Allen's fumble on the very first drive of the season. Other than that I can't remember a single play that I would consider a big mistake. We knew coming into the season the Bills offense would be predicated on executing on relatively long drives, and an offense like that has to avoid mistakes more than anything. I give Brady credit for this maybe more than anything else. Limiting mistake-prone plays was the best thing he did when he took over last year and it's only gotten better. In this respect, losing Gabe Davis really was addition by subtraction.

[JerseyBills]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

"Bad" isn't the right word. I would say they're doing fine.

 

Nobody can come in here and post 30 all-22 clips showing that the WRs aren't really playing above the scheme (the notable exception being Shakir after the catch). Here's a stat that I think at least implies that notion though:

 

So Allen is dead last in the NFL at throwing to his first read, only 55.6% of the time. It's an interesting stat that can probably be interpreted in a few different ways. What it tells me is that our WRs are not getting quick separation. Allen is having to move on but luckily he has been going though progressions at an elite level, the OL is holding up long enough for him to do that, and Brady's schemed route combinations are working well enough that somebody is eventually coming open along the natural progression. It's unicorn caliber that we're the NFL's most efficient offense while going to our 1st read barely half the time. That sort of thing just doesn't happen, but Allen and Brady are finding a way, and the WRs are executing just enough to make it work.

 

I know you don't believe those of us who say the WRs are meeting our offseason expectations, but it really is the case. I expected Shakir to have 4-5 targets per game and have elite YAC production. I expected Hollins to be mostly a blocking WR. I expected MVS to replicate his role with the Chiefs. I expected Coleman to be brought along slowly and only contribute here and there. Shakir I'll say has moderately exceeded my expectations only because a 100% catch rate is ridiculous and I have to give him some flowers for that. Samuel on the other hand has moderately fallen short of my expectations. So across the board I would say the room as a whole has met my expectations.

 

What has really exceeded my expectations so far are Josh Allen (improbably), the pass protection, and most of all Joe Brady. Those specific ingredients have been so good that they are masking the deficiencies. I'm not going to hedge myself and predict that the offense will fall off. I am flat out very impressed by the whole operation and I see signs that it is in fact sustainable and is in fact championship caliber. Still I stand by my view that the WR room specifically is below average relative to the rest of the league.

interesting stat, would really like to know what it was  every year since 2020, i'd assume right around 60%,Josh imo has always looked for the bigger play/longer developing routes

[eball]

12 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

 

I haven't played fantasy football in 10 years.  It's boring to me.    

 

Point is, the way the WR/TE are being used is reflected in their YPC...which is about 11.5.  For a TE, that's OK but for an outside WR that's dismal.  

 

They're throwing short and taking what the defense gives them.  Great.  Many in this thread expect that to remain the same...why exactly?  Why would a DC just keep letting a successful offense keep right on doing what's worked against previous opponents?  

 

BTW, are you comparing Daniel Jones and the NY Giants to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills?  Those 2 teams?  Come on dude.   

 

 

Aside from maybe GB, there isn't a team in the NFL taking this approach on offense.  And given that Buffalo hasn't been an offensive trend-setter after 2020, I doubt very much this will catch on.  Teams still are looking for a 1 and 2, signing some to big contracts.  What makes you think the opposite approach is going to be sustainable for an entire season?  

 

No, I’m not comparing the Bills and Giants, which is obvious.  I’m comparing a team that drafted a “true #1 WR” who has awesome stats yet the team can’t score.

 

You do realize that trendsetters often start as anomalies, right?  Who are you to say that the strategy and productivity of what the Bills are doing right now won’t become the wave of the modern NFL?

 

Unfortunately you’re yet another poster who is more concerned with “being right’ than in looking at what’s going on with an open mind.

 

 

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

No, I’m not comparing the Bills and Giants, which is obvious.  I’m comparing a team that drafted a “true #1 WR” who has awesome stats yet the team can’t score.

 

You do realize that trendsetters often start as anomalies, right?  Who are you to say that the strategy and productivity of what the Bills are doing right now won’t become the wave of the modern NFL?

 

Unfortunately you’re yet another poster who is more concerned with “being right’ than in looking at what’s going on with an open mind.

 

You referenced the Daniel Jones QB'd Giants with Nabers in a thread about the Bills cast at WR.   

 

"I watched the Giants/Cowboys game last night, and saw Jones force feed "true WR1" Nabers the ball 11 or 12 times for over 100 yards.  The Giants still didn't score a TD and lost a game in which they held Dallas to 20 points."

 

What's the inference?  That having Daniel Jones paired with a young highly regarded WR is the wrong way to go?   Well yeah...it's Daniel Jones.   Buffalo doesn't have WR versatility.  

 

Some of you in this thread could run for office with such a command of sophistry, half-truths, and denials.  It's actually quite hilarious in a way.  

[Alphadawg7]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

"Bad" isn't the right word. I would say they're doing fine.

 

Nobody can come in here and post 30 all-22 clips showing that the WRs aren't really playing above the scheme (the notable exception being Shakir after the catch). Here's a stat that I think at least implies that notion though:

 

So Allen is dead last in the NFL at throwing to his first read, only 55.6% of the time. It's an interesting stat that can probably be interpreted in a few different ways. What it tells me is that our WRs are not getting quick separation. Allen is having to move on but luckily he has been going though progressions at an elite level, the OL is holding up long enough for him to do that, and Brady's schemed route combinations are working well enough that somebody is eventually coming open along the natural progression. It's unicorn caliber that we're the NFL's most efficient offense while going to our 1st read barely half the time. That sort of thing just doesn't happen, but Allen and Brady are finding a way, and the WRs are executing just enough to make it work.

 

I know you don't believe those of us who say the WRs are meeting our offseason expectations, but it really is the case. I expected Shakir to have 4-5 targets per game and have elite YAC production. I expected Hollins to be mostly a blocking WR. I expected MVS to replicate his role with the Chiefs. I expected Coleman to be brought along slowly and only contribute here and there. Shakir I'll say has moderately exceeded my expectations only because a 100% catch rate is ridiculous and I have to give him some flowers for that. Samuel on the other hand has moderately fallen short of my expectations. So across the board I would say the room as a whole has met my expectations.

 

What has really exceeded my expectations so far are Josh Allen (improbably), the pass protection, and most of all Joe Brady. Those specific ingredients have been so good that they are masking the deficiencies. I'm not going to hedge myself and predict that the offense will fall off. I am flat out very impressed by the whole operation and I see signs that it is in fact sustainable and is in fact championship caliber. Still I stand by my view that the WR room specifically is below average relative to the rest of the league.

 

No disrespect, but unless Joe Brady is putting this stat out, they do not know who Allens first read is.  When you talk about an OC scheming guys to get open, that includes running clear out routes to get those guys open and that involves the QB leading defenders with his eyes.  So just because Allen looks at someone initially does not mean they are the intended target or his primary read on the play.  

 

So since you are saying they are producing as players what you expected...so does that mean that you expected Josh Allen to only have 2 pass attempts week 1 the first half until the final drive of the half?  Does that mean you only expected Josh to complete 18 passes but to 9 different people week 1? Does that mean you expected the Bills to dominate on the ground week 2 in a blow out to the offense just chewed clock the 2nd half instead of throwing?  Does that mean you expected the Bills to score on 5 straight TD drives in a game Josh hit 10 different receivers and then the offense again took the 2nd half off week 3 in another blowout?

 

I ask that...because for you to say this is what you expected means in terms of production, then you would have had to of expected that after 3 games of football you expected the passing offense to be going all out in basically just 2 halves of football through 3 games.

 

So while you and others keep citing stat totals as "evidence" of the group being basically meh, underwhelming, not good (depending on which poster one is talking to), you are also completely disregarding the literal context of those totals.

 

What is wild to me about this take about the stats is that basically you are holding it against the WR's for basically the offense being too good.  

Edited September 28 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

"Bad" isn't the right word. I would say they're doing fine.

 

Nobody can come in here and post 30 all-22 clips showing that the WRs aren't really playing above the scheme (the notable exception being Shakir after the catch).

 

Yet, anyone can go into the All-22 and show 30 clips of the WR's making plays and playing at a very high level in all facets of the game all over the field.  So no disrespect, that is playing better than "fine" during the first 3 weeks.  

[eball]

30 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

You referenced the Daniel Jones QB'd Giants with Nabers in a thread about the Bills cast at WR.   

 

"I watched the Giants/Cowboys game last night, and saw Jones force feed "true WR1" Nabers the ball 11 or 12 times for over 100 yards.  The Giants still didn't score a TD and lost a game in which they held Dallas to 20 points."

 

What's the inference?  That having Daniel Jones paired with a young highly regarded WR is the wrong way to go?   Well yeah...it's Daniel Jones.   Buffalo doesn't have WR versatility.  

 

Some of you in this thread could run for office with such a command of sophistry, half-truths, and denials.  It's actually quite hilarious in a way.  

You’re just like your fearless (and absent) leader…conflate and change the discussion when you can’t logically debate the issue at large. 
 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

You referenced the Daniel Jones QB'd Giants with Nabers in a thread about the Bills cast at WR.   

 

"I watched the Giants/Cowboys game last night, and saw Jones force feed "true WR1" Nabers the ball 11 or 12 times for over 100 yards.  The Giants still didn't score a TD and lost a game in which they held Dallas to 20 points."

 

What's the inference?  That having Daniel Jones paired with a young highly regarded WR is the wrong way to go?   Well yeah...it's Daniel Jones.   Buffalo doesn't have WR versatility.  

 

Some of you in this thread could run for office with such a command of sophistry, half-truths, and denials.  It's actually quite hilarious in a way.  

You definitely could run for office with your ability to not answer questions.

[FireChans]

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Fair reply, but you already said it…receiving yards is not a viable stat here.  
 

I would take Shakir over a lot of guys above him on that list for example, a lot of them.  And for a lot of reasons and intangibles that Shakir brings that make him more valuable IMO than many guys on that list.
 

Think about this…look where Shakir is on this list.  Now consider the passing offense has really only been full throttle for essentially 2 halves of football this season.  Last 2 min of first half through the 2nd half of week 1 (Allen had only 2 pass attempts prior to that thanks to his own mistake, penalties in the OL, and the D not getting AZ off the field fast enough) and first half the Jags game.  Week 2 it was the Cook show and the offense took the 2nd half of the game off as it also did against the Jags in blow out losses.

 

Where do you think Shakir ranks yardage wise if we had gone all 4 quarters where the pass game was heavily involved all 3 weeks?

 

This is why this yardage stat for our particular offense has no relevancy on grading the quality of our guys play.  Josh hit 9 receivers week 1…Cook show week 2…and then he hit 10 guys week 3.  
 

As I have said, it is early, nothing is for sure right now moving forward still.  We need to see how this offense fares against tougher opposition when teams have more film to prepare for.  But as you said above, can they win a SB like this?  Well Pats and Chiefs won 9 like this so we know it can be done, the question is can we executing it at this high of a level when teams get more film on us.  But like you said, early results are promising, especially with how different our game plan has been each week. 

I don't know where he ranks if he had more yards. I do know I only have Shakir over a few guys on that list, not a lot of them. And I think Shakir thus far has been our best WR.

 

I think Shakir is borderline elite at YAC at this point. We now have a pretty large sample size that this dude can make a lot of something out of nothing and that's a great skill. But he is still a slot guy, which caps his ceiling as a WR talent to me.

[Kirby Jackson]

11 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

"Bad" isn't the right word. I would say they're doing fine.

 

Nobody can come in here and post 30 all-22 clips showing that the WRs aren't really playing above the scheme (the notable exception being Shakir after the catch). Here's a stat that I think at least implies that notion though:

 

So Allen is dead last in the NFL at throwing to his first read, only 55.6% of the time. It's an interesting stat that can probably be interpreted in a few different ways. What it tells me is that our WRs are not getting quick separation. Allen is having to move on but luckily he has been going though progressions at an elite level, the OL is holding up long enough for him to do that, and Brady's schemed route combinations are working well enough that somebody is eventually coming open along the natural progression. It's unicorn caliber that we're the NFL's most efficient offense while going to our 1st read barely half the time. That sort of thing just doesn't happen, but Allen and Brady are finding a way, and the WRs are executing just enough to make it work.

 

I know you don't believe those of us who say the WRs are meeting our offseason expectations, but it really is the case. I expected Shakir to have 4-5 targets per game and have elite YAC production. I expected Hollins to be mostly a blocking WR. I expected MVS to replicate his role with the Chiefs. I expected Coleman to be brought along slowly and only contribute here and there. Shakir I'll say has moderately exceeded my expectations only because a 100% catch rate is ridiculous and I have to give him some flowers for that. Samuel on the other hand has moderately fallen short of my expectations. So across the board I would say the room as a whole has met my expectations.

 

What has really exceeded my expectations so far are Josh Allen (improbably), the pass protection, and most of all Joe Brady. Those specific ingredients have been so good that they are masking the deficiencies. I'm not going to hedge myself and predict that the offense will fall off. I am flat out very impressed by the whole operation and I see signs that it is in fact sustainable and is in fact championship caliber. Still I stand by my view that the WR room specifically is below average relative to the rest of the league.

This is the best and most true post in the thread. Really well done @HappyDays 🍻

[FireChans]

13 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Meanwhile, the bengals with a top 5 WR room are 0-3

 

 

13 hours ago, Simon said:

 

Don't forget this unstoppable trio!

 

 

Honest question, what is the conclusion that you guys are trying to draw here?

 

The question I would pose to you both, is to imagine that Keon Coleman was like Justin Jefferson 2.0 and was a superstar out of the gate. Would that be a good or a bad thing for the Bills offense?  With posts like this, I'd like to know where you stand, because personally, If Coleman was a superstar, I think it would be a huge boon to the offense and our SB hopes. 

[BillsVet]

47 minutes ago, eball said:

You’re just like your fearless (and absent) leader…conflate and change the discussion when you can’t logically debate the issue at large. 

 

I don't have a "leader" and encourage you to interact with whomever you think that is by responding to them directly.  No sense beating around the bush, right?  

 

Still amazes me that the defense of all things Bills hits many here so close to home.  It's like the state religion that the peasants aren't allowed to question.  

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yet, anyone can go into the All-22 and show 30 clips of the WR's making plays and playing at a very high level in all facets of the game all over the field.  So no disrespect, that is playing better than "fine" during the first 3 weeks.  

Which plays have the WRs made that a replacement level guy (think Isaiah Hodgins) wouldn’t have made? Shakir’s run after the catch for the TD is the only play this year that I can think of. That’s why they’ve been “fine.” They’ve done what they have been asked to do but rarely (1 time) did something that every other average NFL player wouldn’t do. 

Edited September 28 by Kirby Jackson

[BillsVet]

9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

You definitely could run for office with your ability to not answer questions.

 

I don't answer your questions...because they're frankly pretty bad.  

[Coach Tuesday]

135 pages and we still haven’t had a game where the Bills NEEDED their passing offense to win.  That’s great complimentary football but it means we don’t know yet.