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I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better


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8 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

Flat out, this scheme requires the receivers to catch, RAC, and block. Same as the rest of the skill guys. The guys this year are CLEARLY a better fit than the guys last year, regardless of your arbitrary metrics about who is better.

 

I think you are actually underselling Joe Brady with this comment. You have the relationship backwards. You say the scheme requires the WRs to block and have good RAC skills, whereas I say Joe Brady has taken the skill sets of his WRs and built the scheme around them. If he had two elite outside WRs the scheme would look totally different. That is a credit to Brady. By leaning on his players strengths he is minimizing their weaknesses. Every person on the offense is being asked to do only what they can do well. That's a tough needle to thread when you have middling talent in the room but Brady is threading it.

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2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

 

I haven't played fantasy football in 10 years.  It's boring to me.    

 

Point is, the way the WR/TE are being used is reflected in their YPC...which is about 11.5.  For a TE, that's OK but for an outside WR that's dismal.  

 

They're throwing short and taking what the defense gives them.  Great.  Many in this thread expect that to remain the same...why exactly?  Why would a DC just keep letting a successful offense keep right on doing what's worked against previous opponents?  

 

BTW, are you comparing Daniel Jones and the NY Giants to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills?  Those 2 teams?  Come on dude.   

 

 

Aside from maybe GB, there isn't a team in the NFL taking this approach on offense.  And given that Buffalo hasn't been an offensive trend-setter after 2020, I doubt very much this will catch on.  Teams still are looking for a 1 and 2, signing some to big contracts.  What makes you think the opposite approach is going to be sustainable for an entire season?  


You are hung up on the wrong stats.  
 

First off, you do realize that 11.5 yards per stat has been impacted by the fact that we mailed it in for 50% of the past 2 games too right?

 

No disrespect, if you want to analyze the performance of our receivers you aren’t going to do so on the stat sheet when we are only playing one half of football each week and Allen is hitting 9 and 10 different receivers each week. You’re just pulling data to force a confirmation bias.  
 

Instead, turn the film on, our guys are winning and executing at a very high level all over the field in everything they are being asked to do.  People who analyze this stuff for a living, even guys who were critical of the WR room and weapons before the season have all been talking about how great they are executing out there every week.

 

So unless you or anyone else can produce video evidence of our WRs being limited, struggling to do their jobs, etc then there is not an argument to be made that this group is playing bad these first three weeks.  

 

Roster building 101:  The GMs literal only job is to give the coaches the personnel to execute their systems at a high level.  This group’s is literally doing this on every level of their jobs right now.  And the only failures we had on our downfield attempts were Allen’s fault for badly missing a wide open MVS twice and our RB dropping an over the shoulder pass.  
 

 

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7 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I think those are 2 similar guys 

 

St Brown a little bigger but shakir a little faster ... Both super tough runners and savvy route runners 

 

I don't think they're similar at all. ARSB is a pure route runner and separator. Shakir is best when he's schemed open and delivered the ball with space to run.

 

ARSB is on an island in the top right near some of the very best WRs in football. Shakir is right at the intersection of the two dotted lines indicating league average efficiency.

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2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

So teams that run the ball effectively, have multiple quality targets and don’t have to feed a prima donna WR do better than other teams.  What a concept!  

that's the takeaway if you want to defend the narrative

 

the real concept is that teams w mahomes/reid and brady/belichick do better than other teams. the fact that both had HOF tight ends is interesting but im not sure it's relevant...the fact that at various points they were successful w/out star WRs is however almost certainly irrelevant

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17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think they're similar at all. ARSB is a pure route runner and separator. Shakir is best when he's schemed open and delivered the ball with space to run.

 

ARSB is on an island in the top right near some of the very best WRs in football. Shakir is right at the intersection of the two dotted lines indicating league average efficiency.

Players literally develop with more playing time... 

 

And every great player gets schemed open.. every single coach draws up plays to get their number one guy open even #2

 

AMST almost had as many snaps as a rookie as shakir has had his entire career... AmST 816 snaps as a rook shakir has like 900 in his career.. Repetitions is massive 

 

Shakir can run good routes, not as good as AMST but he's twitchy 

 

They both thrive better from the slot... They're both aggressive runners who can break tackles

 

Consistent hands

 

One has extremely more experience against NFL man coverage so he is better and adjusting to certain leverages and winning on the fly

 

Shakir has done nothing but outplay his draft status and limited opportunities.. he is much better than Gabe Davis ever was who was a team captain and just got like 13 million dollars a year

 

He absolutely is a thousand yard receiver , we just don't throw the ball all over the yard anymore 

 

He's not an all pro but he is definitely giving defensive backs problems and most of the League Play zone and he beats zone and has the attributes to become better at beating man which he doesn't struggle at 

 

Even the chart says he's right there average with limited reps and he's getting better

 

His arrow is squarely up and you're either getting better or worse in the NFL

 

 

 

Edited by Buffalo716
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Its hard to judge the WR's so far. I don't think the Bills have a top WR corps by any stretch of the imagination but they are playing better as a group than a more talented WR corps last year at least through 3 games.

 

Shakir is the "#1 WR" right now and I think he has been fantastic so far. He's just not getting # 1 WR opportunities which he might not get all year because of the style of football that they are playing.

 

I think we are starting to see Kincaid get thrown to down the field(about time) and I hope to see him make bigger plays later on into the season.

 

Coleman is a rookie and he's been not great but again he's had a lack of opportunity and if you look at the stats of the rookie WR's he's been right on par with every rookie WR so far outside of the top 4 guys who are getting the ball thrown to them at a 3 to 4 times clip per game.

 

Hollins is basically a Gabe Davis clone who is getting the ball less (which is a good thing) but does a great job blocking and when the ball has come his way he has caught it versus Davis who had the dropsies a lot.

 

Samuel is the guy i'm surprised hasn't gotten more opportunities. They have used him a lot as a decoy right now and screen guy. He did catch a nice slant route last week for a good pickup

 

MVS is whatever. He's the take the top off guy to open stuff up underneath.

 

I think the thing they deserve credit for so far is that when the ball has been thrown to them they have caught it. That was a huge problem with the Bills past teams. We are efficient staying ahead of the chains and allowing Brady to use the full playbook at his disposal including Allen Runs, throwing the ball to the RB's and Tight Ends to keep moving down the field.

 

As I said earlier, yea I would draft another WR next year. I do think we need another guy and there are a ton of guys to add to the room next year. We will need to add to Shakir and Coleman for sure in the near future.

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Just now, GoBills808 said:

that's the takeaway if you want to defend the narrative

 

the real concept is that teams w mahomes/reid and brady/belichick do better than other teams. the fact that both had HOF tight ends is interesting but im not sure it's relevant...the fact that at various points they were successful w/out star WRs is however almost certainly irrelevant

I get it! You wanted Beane to keep a declining Diggs or replace him with a big $ WR.  
 

This isn’t a narrative.  It’s fact.  Have you not watched the last 3 games? Joe Brady has a HoF QB, a top O-line that opens running lanes, and a pile of 10 good to excellent targets to throw too.  Joe Brady can alter the game plan to take advantage of each teams weaknesses.  Balt sucks on the back end of their defense.  Expect a strong passing attack from the Bills.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Players literally develop with more playing time... 

 

And every great player gets schemed open.. every single coach draws up plays to get their number one guy open even #2

 

AMST almost had that as many snaps as a rookie as shakir has had his entire career... Repetitions is massive 

 

Shakir can run good routes, not as good as AMST but he's twitchy 

 

They both thrive better from the slot... They're both aggressive runners who can break tackles

 

Consistent hands

 

One has extremely more experience against NFL man coverage so he has better adapt at adjusting on the fly 

 

Shakir has done nothing but outplay his draft status and limited opportunities.. he is much better than Gabe Davis ever was who was a team captain and just got like 13 million dollars a year

 

He absolutely is a thousand yard receiver , we just don't throw the ball all over the yard anymore 

 

He's not an all pro but he is definitely giving defensive backs problems and most of the League Play zone and he beats zone and has the attributes to become better at beating man which he doesn't struggle at 

 

Even the chart says he's right there average and he's getting better

 

 

ARSB just signed a $120M contract, $30M AAV. Shakir is not going to come close to that. ARSB is coming off a 1,500 yard season. If Shakir makes it to 1,000 yards it will be considered a very successful season.

 

I don't mean to be a wet blanket about Shakir. I really do love his skill set and his fit with Josh Allen. I just don't make him out to be anything more than he is. I appreciate that Brady is not making the same mistake we made with Gabe Davis where we took a role player and tried to make him a focal point. Shakir is an excellent role player and we are using him as such. Why can't that be enough?

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6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I get it! You wanted Beane to keep a declining Diggs or replace him with a big $ WR.  
 

This isn’t a narrative.  It’s fact.  Have you not watched the last 3 games? Joe Brady has a HoF QB, a top O-line that opens running lanes, and a pile of 10 good to excellent targets to throw too.  Joe Brady can alter the game plan to take advantage of each teams weaknesses.  Balt sucks on the back end of their defense.  Expect a strong passing attack from the Bills.

 

 

You clearly  don't get it

 

What you are proposing is that having a top WR somehow makes teams less successful

 

Which is nonsense

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20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

ARSB just signed a $120M contract, $30M AAV. Shakir is not going to come close to that. ARSB is coming off a 1,500 yard season. If Shakir makes it to 1,000 yards it will be considered a very successful season.

 

I don't mean to be a wet blanket about Shakir. I really do love his skill set and his fit with Josh Allen. I just don't make him out to be anything more than he is. I appreciate that Brady is not making the same mistake we made with Gabe Davis where we took a role player and tried to make him a focal point. Shakir is an excellent role player and we are using him as such. Why can't that be enough?

I said their skill set are similar not that he's as good as AmST

 

I obviously don't think he will ever sign 120 million dollar contract but neither did Julian Edelman 

 

He's a reliable Target for what the offense does and he does it well.. he has chemistry with Josh and can beat zone coverage is getting better at beating man coverage and has reliable hands 

 

And he runs hard after the catch and is a team player... There have been plenty of great role players who have developed into more 

 

But last year at the end of the year he was out playing and got more yards than diggs like the last 7 weeks of the season , he's doing nothing then getting better all the time 

 

Just discounting him to a career role player is kind of early when his entire game is improving .. Bill belichick was the only person in the world who was willing to make Julian Edelman the centerpiece of an NFL offense.. and Welker.. both just thought to be great role players 

 

Shakir doesn't need 165 targets like diggs... He'll catch 75-80 balls on 110 targets... And go for a 950

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5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I said their skill set are similar not that he's as good as AmST

 

I obviously don't think he will ever sign 120 million dollar contract but neither did Julian Edelman 

 

He's a reliable Target for what the offense does and he does it well.. he has chemistry with Josh and can beat zone coverage is getting better at beating man coverage and has reliable hands 

 

And he runs hard after the catch and is a team player... There have been plenty of great role players who have developed into more 

 

But last year at the end of the year he was out playing and got more yards than diggs like the last 7 weeks of the season , he's doing nothing then getting better all the time 

 

Just discounting him to a career role player is kind of early when his entire game is improving .. Bill belichick was the only person in the world who was willing to make Julian Edelman the centerpiece of an NFL offense.. and Welker.. both just thought to be great role players 

 

Shakir doesn't need 150 targets like diggs... He'll catch 75 balls on 110 targets... And go for a 950

 

Much like offensive coordinators in my opinion, WR's can be made to look a lot better with a elite QB play and I think thats what your seeing with Shakir. Stick him in an offense with an average QB and we don't say this but I think he's a deadly type of player with someone like Allen. Much like Edelman/Welker were with Brady but may not have been successful in another scheme and QB.

 

I think people are so caught up in the 1300-1500 star WR they will overlook the fact that its okay to have a guy who gets 900-1000 and a bunch of other guys who get between 500-700 yards as long as there are multiple guys who do this.

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Ok I thought a lot about this topic.  This is what I love... I love the offensive design.  I love that we have what is IMO a better receiver core all around than any year since Brown, Diggs, Beasley prime year.  When I say better receiver core I am not just talking about WR. I am talking about TE's and RBs too.  I love that Josh has bought into this... I guess I'll call it small ball offense even though its not really small ball, its just not deep bombs all game.  I love that we have a run game that works.  I love that Brady seems to actually game plan to an opponents weakness, ie. if a team has a weak run defense we will run the football and vise versa vs a weak pass defense. I love that we spread the ball around and it seems like we can rely on all the pass catchers to do their job.  I love that our O line is this good already.

 

Beane built all this.  Brady makes it go.  Josh and the other players execute it.  I think this will work for us.  It already is working for us.  Say what you want about who we faced. We destroyed two teams so bad that Josh could have went home at half time and we woulda been ok. The Jags gave up 19 ppg before we destroyed them. I don't care who you play, blowouts like this dont happen that often. We did it two weeks in a row.  Cardinals are no slouch team either.  People were putting Miami winning the division before we played em.  This week will be a new test.  I expect if we beat the Ravens and put up a lot of points, people will just change and say the Ravens are a bad team and their D sucks.  At least the people that aren't already saying that.

 

I know that was a lot and a lot of it doesn't have to do with this thread per sae. My point is I guess that its early but there is a lot of good to this WR group. We may have lost the star in Diggs but the unit as a whole has gotten better. They do a lot more such as run blocking. They seem better at pick/rub routes. They seem more reliable catching the ball. There aren't a bunch of miscommunication mistakes that Josh and Davis had with each other. They are better suited to the style of offense we are running... ie making it easier on Josh and also making it easier to not throw picks.  There is still something to be said of having a game changer on top of that.  Like a Ceedee Lamb or someone.  We don't have that difference maker, but what we do have is a bunch of consistent guys and an offense that is tougher to defend because the ball can be going anywhere to anyone.  I also think Shakir is really really good. Not elite but really good. I don't think Brady has even opened the offense up fully yet. I expect more screen plays and jet sweeps and stuff. I also expect that as defenses get tape and adjust that Brady will be able to adjust too and we have players that can make that happen because everyone eats and everyone is reliable even if they aren't a star.

 

The days of the long ball Daboll/Dorsey offensive style just doesnt work in the NFL anymore.  What we are running is the style of offense that actually does work in todays NFL.  Defenses have adjusted. We have an OC that adjusted with it.  We werent the first but we also arent the team still trying to fit square pegs in round holes.  I can't wait until Sunday Night!!! Its too far away!!!

Edited by Scott7975
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42 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

What you are proposing is that having a top WR somehow makes teams less successful

Actually it did.  Which offense looks better to you?  The feed the Diggs monster 170 times but he only catches 65% or the current offense where the top 5 receivers catch 80+% of his catches.  
 

So who are the top receivers in the NFL?  How are their teams doing so far? It’s mixed.  Lamb?  His Cowboys are 1-2.  Chase?  Cinn 0-3?  Nabers? Giants 1-3. Jefferson is 3-0, Collins 1-2.  Having a top WR obviously isn’t enough to guarantee a top offense.  

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