FireChans Posted September 27 Posted September 27 5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Funny watching people complain about running a similar offense to what the made Pats and Chiefs into dynasties, especially from people who essentially prefer we mimic the Dolphins approach to building a team who can't beat a .500 team or win a playoff game. This is fair, but the Dolphins WRs are objectively great and the Chiefs/Pats WR's were objectively not great. There's really two sides to this equation. 1. Can the Bills run an enough good enough to win a Superbowl with this WR crew? - Early returns say yes. The offense has been humming thus far, and Brady is in his bag and Josh is playing really excellent. Long season, but plenty to be optimistic about. 2. Is this WR crew considered "good" by NFL standards - This is still very debateable. Illustrated below. Here are the top 30ish WR's on the list this season by yardage. Nabers Collins Lamb Rice Jennings JJ Metcalf Godwin Smith Pierce Chase Adams Jamo St Brown MHJ Reed Hill Robinson BTJ Olave Waddle JSN Reynolds Pickens Mooney Shaheed (Shakir) Moore Diggs Tolbert Odunze Meyers Wilson Flowers That list is in receiving yards. A very imperfect stat. But how many players on that list do you think Shakir and co. are better than? 1 Quote
Kirby Jackson Posted September 27 Posted September 27 (edited) 1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said: You can't just keep saying the WR's aren't good and ignore facts, context and reality of what has really been happening on the field. Anyone citing stat totals as you do in other posts below has already failed at accurately evaluating this group and are just trying to cling to previous negative takes that are not playing out on the field like they predicted. So if you are going to say they aren't good, then why don't you present film evidence of them not being good? And before you go and do what you do every week and cite "stat totals", that is not evidence of them not being good. Not when in week 1 Josh completed only 18 passes and to NINE different receivers...not when in week 2 Cook went off and the offense took the 2nd half off in a blow out...not when in week 3 Josh hit TEN different receivers and again the offense took the 2nd half off in another blow out win. If you want to insist that they are not good, then surely you can provide film evidence of them struggling and not being good. Case in point right here...Shakir has caught an NFL record 27 straight targets...that is elite, that is an NFL record. But because Allen is spreading the ball around you want to downplay Shakir by citing "projected totals" as if those projections are an indication of him being limited instead of the REAL context that Allen is throwing to everyone and the offense has essentially only played 3 halves of football the first 3 weeks through the context of the individual games. See I knew this would happen and predicted this earlier in this thread this offseason...all the people who went to the extreme with the WR's were never ever going to acknowledge they are better than they thought and just say its all Brady or Allen if the offense had success. What happened to all the "nobody can get open without an elite WR drawing extra coverage" for example? Guys are getting open all over the field without that "elite" guy. No disrespect, but Brady looks great because the players are executing his offense great. Brady can't be the "star" if the guys on the field "aren't good" and aren't doing their jobs at a high level. So while Brady has been great, so have the players on the field. Look...If you still are not sold because you haven't seen them go through a stiffer test or seen a bigger body of work, that is 100% fair and no objection from me. But to say the WR's "are not good" after these past 3 weeks is just a stubborn commitment to a preseason opinion. And to be fair, the first 3 weeks mean nothing other than they looked great the first 3 weeks. Lot of football left, tougher tests to come, nothing is proven long term yet. There’s a lot here. The fact is that they are on pace for 180 catches and less than 2,000 yards. That’s a fact. Everything else is what we feel. There is a lot of football left. This isn’t just sticking to my preseason prediction. I haven’t seen anything from that group that leads me to believe they are above the bottom 4. They look like I thought they would. Shakir is Beasley that can run after the catch. Samuel has been invisible. Coleman has made a couple of plays and Hollins 1. With the exception of Shakir’s run after the catch, there isn’t one play that they’ve made that an average NFL WR wouldn’t. That doesn’t mean they’re bad. It just means that they’re replacement level. The next closest “play”’that an average guy wouldn’t make is when Josh missed MVS down the field. He had his guy beat. Edited September 27 by Kirby Jackson Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted September 27 Posted September 27 6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Correct. As @Kirby Jackson said earlier. Shakir is about as expected. Coleman too (but my expectations were not high). Hollins slightly better. Samuel a fair bit worse. MVS as expected. I feel we are going to start seeing the raw stats many of us will see once we are in a real game. We haven't had to consistently throw the ball in any game this season. Allen would have thrown for at least 450 if the Jags could score... 28 attempts in the 1st half...what would he have done with 28 more in the second half? Same with the Dolphins game. Same for the 1st half of AZ. It's coming. Quote
ColoradoBills Posted September 27 Posted September 27 36 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: No disrespect, but Brady looks great because the players are executing his offense great. Brady can't be the "star" if the guys on the field "aren't good" and aren't doing their jobs at a high level. So while Brady has been great, so have the players on the field. Look...If you still are not sold because you haven't seen them go through a stiffer test or seen a bigger body of work, that is 100% fair and no objection from me. But to say the WR's "are not good" after these past 3 weeks is just a stubborn commitment to a preseason opinion. And to be fair, the first 3 weeks mean nothing other than they looked great the first 3 weeks. Lot of football left, tougher tests to come, nothing is proven long term yet. This the big truth that some can't agree with. I am so pleasantly surprised that BOTH Brady and the O (large part to do with Josh Allen) have dovetailed together so well. What confuses me is that EVERY Buffalo Bill (players and coaches) are telling everyone what their "system" is and is showing everyone the first 3 weeks exactly what that is............and still fans want to argue that it isn't really happening. If Josh Allen can't convince the fans in this thread, NOBODY else is going to least of all me. 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted September 27 Posted September 27 4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: There’s a lot here. The fact is that they are on pace for 180 catches and less than 2,000 yards. That’s a fact. Everything else is what we feel. There is a lot of football left. This isn’t just sticking to my preseason prediction. I haven’t seen anything from that group that leads me to believe they are above the bottom 4. They look like I thought they would. Shakir is Beasley that can run after the catch. Samuel has been invisible. Coleman has made a couple of plays and Hollins 1. With the exception of Shakir’s run after the catch, there isn’t not one play that they’ve made that an average NFL WR wouldn’t. That doesn’t mean their bad. It just means that they’re replacement level. The next closest “play”’that an average guy wouldn’t make is when Josh missed MVS down the field. He had his guy beat. Exactly There aren't any victory laps available yet, it's too early and the gameflow hasn't been representative I mean I could drag up my prediction of this being a 10-15ish offense and here we stand at 13th but would that really mean anything 😂😂 1 Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted September 27 Posted September 27 5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: There’s a lot here. The fact is that they are on pace for 180 catches and less than 2,000 yards. That’s a fact. Everything else is what we feel. There is a lot of football left. This isn’t just sticking to my preseason prediction. I haven’t seen anything from that group that leads me to believe they are above the bottom 4. They look like I thought they would. Shakir is Beasley that can run after the catch. Samuel has been invisible. Coleman has made a couple of plays and Hollins 1. With the exception of Shakir’s run after the catch, there isn’t not one play that they’ve made that an average NFL WR wouldn’t. That doesn’t mean their bad. It just means that they’re replacement level. The next closest “play”’that an average guy wouldn’t make is when Josh missed MVS down the field. He had his guy beat. Josh Allen is on pace for 400 passing attempts this year which would be his lowest since his rookie year. That's a fact. Do you feel he will throw more later in the season? 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: Exactly There aren't any victory laps available yet, it's too early and the gameflow hasn't been representative I mean I could drag up my prediction of this being a 10-15ish offense and here we stand at 13th but would that really mean anything 😂😂 That's 100% yet. I think there's good indication we will still throw the ball a lot is because of how we opened up against the Jags. We only stopped throwing in the 2nd half. They want a strong running game because if we can't get anything going in the air, we still have another option. Years prior, when our air attack was shutdown, we shutdown. Quote
ColoradoBills Posted September 27 Posted September 27 10 minutes ago, FireChans said: This is fair, but the Dolphins WRs are objectively great and the Chiefs/Pats WR's were objectively not great. There's really two sides to this equation. 1. Can the Bills run an enough good enough to win a Superbowl with this WR crew? - Early returns say yes. The offense has been humming thus far, and Brady is in his bag and Josh is playing really excellent. Long season, but plenty to be optimistic about. 2. Is this WR crew considered "good" by NFL standards - This is still very debateable. Illustrated below. Here are the top 30ish WR's on the list this season by yardage. Nabers Collins Lamb Rice Jennings JJ Metcalf Godwin Smith Pierce Chase Adams Jamo St Brown MHJ Reed Hill Robinson BTJ Olave Waddle JSN Reynolds Pickens Mooney Shaheed (Shakir) Moore Diggs Tolbert Odunze Meyers Wilson Flowers That list is in receiving yards. A very imperfect stat. But how many players on that list do you think Shakir and co. are better than? If your reasoning is correct than the following is true, is it not. Josh is "on pace" for a 17-game total of 3,500 passing yards. That would mean Josh Allen is the 25th best passing QB in the league. That is less than what the Broncos had last season. Only better than the Titan, Cards, Bears, Steelers, Pats, Jets, Giants and Panthers. Am I doing this right? Quote
Buffalo716 Posted September 27 Posted September 27 (edited) 19 minutes ago, FireChans said: This is fair, but the Dolphins WRs are objectively great and the Chiefs/Pats WR's were objectively not great. There's really two sides to this equation. 1. Can the Bills run an enough good enough to win a Superbowl with this WR crew? - Early returns say yes. The offense has been humming thus far, and Brady is in his bag and Josh is playing really excellent. Long season, but plenty to be optimistic about. 2. Is this WR crew considered "good" by NFL standards - This is still very debateable. Illustrated below. Here are the top 30ish WR's on the list this season by yardage. Nabers Collins Lamb Rice Jennings JJ Metcalf Godwin Smith Pierce Chase Adams Jamo St Brown MHJ Reed Hill Robinson BTJ Olave Waddle JSN Reynolds Pickens Mooney Shaheed (Shakir) Moore Diggs Tolbert Odunze Meyers Wilson Flowers That list is in receiving yards. A very imperfect stat. But how many players on that list do you think Shakir and co. are better than? It's the NFL Outside of the five or six all pros of the last couple years... There's a lot of wide receiver talent in the NFL What separates them is scheme usage and targets Again outside of the top four five six guys... There's a whole bunch of guys who could be top 15-20 guys in the NFL in the right system with the right quarterback and targets There are literally 40 + guys who could be thousand yard receivers if they received consistent targets inside their scheme Edited September 27 by Buffalo716 Quote
FireChans Posted September 27 Posted September 27 (edited) 5 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: If your reasoning is correct than the following is true, is it not. Josh is "on pace" for a 17-game total of 3,500 passing yards. That would mean Josh Allen is the 25th best passing QB in the league. That is less than what the Broncos had last season. Only better than the Titan, Cards, Bears, Steelers, Pats, Jets, Giants and Panthers. Am I doing this right? No, that's not what I'm saying. See I'm very comfortable saying that Josh is much better than his numbers. I think he's the best QB in the NFL this season thus far despite his passing numbers. I think he's better right now than Mahomes/Burrow/LJ etc. What I'm doing is trying to provide context of the WR's on this team. If you are confident that Shakir is the fifth best WR on that list and MVS and Coleman and Hollins are in the top 15 on that list, that's certainly your opinion. I just don't share that opinion. But I would like to hear the opinion of you guys who think this WR group is very good. Because "good" is relative. Edited September 27 by FireChans Quote
GunnerBill Posted September 27 Posted September 27 22 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: I feel we are going to start seeing the raw stats many of us will see once we are in a real game. We haven't had to consistently throw the ball in any game this season. Allen would have thrown for at least 450 if the Jags could score... 28 attempts in the 1st half...what would he have done with 28 more in the second half? Same with the Dolphins game. Same for the 1st half of AZ. It's coming. It is more about what I see on tape rather than whether we are or are not throwing. Quote
FireChans Posted September 27 Posted September 27 4 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: It's the NFL Outside of the five or six all pros of the last couple years... There's a lot of wide receiver talent in the NFL What separates them is scheme usage and targets Again outside of the top four five six guys... There's a whole bunch of guys who could be top 15-20 guys in the NFL in the right system with the right quarterback and targets There are literally 40 + guys who could be thousand yard receivers if they received consistent targets inside their scheme See above. I just want to know, who on that list is below Shakir or Coleman or MVS or Mack right now? For example, If your opinion is that Shakir and Coleman are both top 15 guys on this list, then its totally fair to think this group is good. Quote
ColoradoBills Posted September 27 Posted September 27 1 minute ago, FireChans said: No, that's not what I'm saying. See I'm very comfortable saying that Josh is much better than his numbers. I think he's the best QB in the NFL despite his passing numbers. What I'm doing is trying to provide context of the WR's on this team. If you are confident that Shakir is the fifth best WR on that list and MVS and Coleman and Hollins are in the top 15 on that list, that's certainly your opinion. I just don't share that opinion. But I would like to hear the opinion of you guys who think this WR group is very good. Because "good" is relative. My "context" is the current WR group is performing well in the system. I don't need to rank everything like some "pundit" on ESPN. The coaches, Josh and the entire offense like what is happening, you and others can claim all you want they are wrong. I'm happy seeing what has happened so far. Quote
FireChans Posted September 27 Posted September 27 Just now, ColoradoBills said: My "context" is the current WR group is performing well in the system. I don't need to rank everything like some "pundit" on ESPN. The coaches, Josh and the entire offense like what is happening, you and others can claim all you want they are wrong. I'm happy seeing what has happened so far. My post was about if the WR's are "good." The folks who think that the WR's aren't "good" is comparing them to the rest of the NFL. If you have no interest in that, there's no reason to dispute it either. Quote
ColoradoBills Posted September 27 Posted September 27 5 minutes ago, FireChans said: My post was about if the WR's are "good." The folks who think that the WR's aren't "good" is comparing them to the rest of the NFL. If you have no interest in that, there's no reason to dispute it either. Last year the WRs scored 4 TDs in the first 3 games. This season the WRs scored 4 TDs. Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted September 27 Posted September 27 12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: It is more about what I see on tape rather than whether we are or are not throwing. It's coming. Just like Von's 4th sack this week homie. 1 1 Quote
FireChans Posted September 27 Posted September 27 3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Last year the WRs scored 4 TDs in the first 3 games. This season the WRs scored 4 TDs. I don't see how this ends productively when you won't answer the questions I ask. So I will be bowing out. My conclusion is that Shakir alone and maybe Coleman has an argument on that list, and certainly outside the top 10 or even 20. MVS and Mack aren't even in the conversation. And thus, I don't think they are that good, and I won't listen to arguments to the contrary that refuse to compare our players to their contemporaries in the NFL. Quote
Kirby Jackson Posted September 27 Posted September 27 39 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Josh Allen is on pace for 400 passing attempts this year which would be his lowest since his rookie year. That's a fact. Do you feel he will throw more later in the season? That's 100% yet. I think there's good indication we will still throw the ball a lot is because of how we opened up against the Jags. We only stopped throwing in the 2nd half. They want a strong running game because if we can't get anything going in the air, we still have another option. Years prior, when our air attack was shutdown, we shutdown. I do think that the pass attempts will go up as the season goes on. I expect all of the gross passing numbers to rise and efficiency to drop some. To this point, the offense has been fantastic. A lot changes over the course of the year. I hope that they can adapt as teams adjust against them. 35 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: If your reasoning is correct than the following is true, is it not. Josh is "on pace" for a 17-game total of 3,500 passing yards. That would mean Josh Allen is the 25th best passing QB in the league. That is less than what the Broncos had last season. Only better than the Titan, Cards, Bears, Steelers, Pats, Jets, Giants and Panthers. Am I doing this right? FWIW, Vegas had him at like o/u 3,700 yards before the season. I bet the over because he’s been a lock to be over for the last few years. So far, that looks like a fair line. 1 Quote
Simon Posted September 27 Posted September 27 31 minutes ago, FireChans said: MVS and Mack aren't even in the conversation. And thus, I don't think they are that good, and I won't listen to arguments to the contrary that refuse to compare our players to their contemporaries in the NFL. You're trying to compare the Bills #4 and #5 WRs to other teams #1 Wrs that you listed? And then suggesting that the Bills WRs aren't good because they don't match up in that comparison? Of course our 4/5 guys don't match up with other people's #1s. The question that started this thread was about the Bills WR room compared to last year. While they took a step back at #1, I think they are arguably better at #2 through #5. If you want to stretch that comparison to start involving other teams and whether this is a good WR room or not, that's fine. But if you are going to bring the Bills #4 and #5 Wrs into the discussion, you better be bringing other teams #4 and #5 Wrs in as well. Otherwise you are just trolling. Again. 2 3 Quote
FireChans Posted September 27 Posted September 27 1 minute ago, Simon said: You're trying to compare the Bills #4 and #5 WRs to other teams #1 Wrs? And then suggesting that the Bills WRs aren't good because they don't match up in that comparison? Of course our 4/5 guys don't match up with other people's #1s. The question that started this thread was about the Bills WR room compared to last year. While they took a step back at #1, I think they are arguably better at #2 through #5. If you want to stretch that comparison to start involving other teams and whether this is a good WR room or not, that's fine. But if you are going to bring the Bills #4 and #5 Wrs into the discussion, you better be bringing other teams #4 and #5 Wrs in as well. Otherwise you are just trolling. Again. I'm really not trolling or trying to crusade here. You cut out the part where I referenced Coleman and Shakir, who are ostensibly our #1 and #2 WR's currently. It was the line right before. (even though Mack leads the team in snaps IIRC, but that's a gameplan/blow out function I think). I just genuinely want to know what NFL WR's folks think are better/worse than ours. It's kinda like the definition of a #2 WR from a few years back IRT the Gabe Davis debate. Like is a #2 a top 64 WR in the NFL? Is a top end #2 a top 40 WR? Does that really make them a low-end 1? It's difficult to truly say. I can accept an argument that this WR group is better than the sum of its parts for the BILLS because of the blocking, the defined team roles, the vibes etc. etc. I think the first 3 games of the season support that and honestly, that may hold up all year. What I believe is that of the 128 WR's 1-4 currently in the NFL, if you ranked them all, the Bills average ranking would be less than 64 (below average). Or put another way, if they all were FA's tomorrow, the Bills WR's 1-4 would be on the lesser paid side of average. I don't think that's "crazy," or even an indictment on the group, because of the comment above (that they are performing their roles excellently and above their talent-level). Quote
Simon Posted September 27 Posted September 27 7 minutes ago, FireChans said: I'm really not trolling or trying to crusade here. You cut out the part where I referenced Coleman and Shakir, who are ostensibly our #1 and #2 WR's currently. It was the line right before. (even though Mack leads the team in snaps IIRC, but that's a gameplan/blow out function I think). I just genuinely want to know what NFL WR's folks think are better/worse than ours. It's kinda like the definition of a #2 WR from a few years back IRT the Gabe Davis debate. Like is a #2 a top 64 WR in the NFL? Is a top end #2 a top 40 WR? Does that really make them a low-end 1? It's difficult to truly say. I can accept an argument that this WR group is better than the sum of its parts for the BILLS because of the blocking, the defined team roles, the vibes etc. etc. I think the first 3 games of the season support that and honestly, that may hold up all year. What I believe is that of the 128 WR's 1-4 currently in the NFL, if you ranked them all, the Bills average ranking would be less than 64 (below average). Or put another way, if they all were FA's tomorrow, the Bills WR's 1-4 would be on the lesser paid side of average. I don't think that's "crazy," or even an indictment on the group, because of the comment above (that they are performing their roles excellently and above their talent-level). First, if you want to talk about the room, you should be talking about 5 guys, not 4. And I'm not sure I would put them below average as a whole. At #1 and #2, yes they are probably below the league norm right now(with the caveat that Coleman could change that before year's end). But Samuel is better than most (if not all) #3's, Hollins is better than most #4s and MVS is better than most #5s. So they are below average at two positions (for now) and above average at three positions. As a whole, I'd put them in the middle of the pack. If you want to factor in their TE's and RB's as passcatchers, they become inarguably above average, imo. 4 Quote
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