I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[RoscoeParrish]

41 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

That's why this thread is pointless...

 

They are starting with a premise (the WR are bad) and using confirmation bias to support their theory. Josh could have the best season of his life and win the MVP, and sentiments in here will be that he did it IN SPITE of his WR. How silly is that?  

 

Here is my question to all the haters:  Joe Brady isn't new. Josh Allen isn't new. The Oline isn't new. The RB aren't new. The TE isn't new. Even the scheme isn't really new. The only thing that is new this season is the WR room. Why are you SO sure that some of this success isn't because they are good in this scheme? And if they are good in this scheme and the offense and team succeeds, doesn't that make them good for the Bills?  And doesn't that equally make guys like Diggs and Davis worse IN THIS SCHEME?  

 

Flat out, this scheme requires the receivers to catch, RAC, and block. Same as the rest of the skill guys. The guys this year are CLEARLY a better fit than the guys last year, regardless of your arbitrary metrics about who is better.

 

Analogy:  A Ferrari is better than a RAM 1500...unless you need to tow something.

Um, if you are watching the games and can’t agree the scheme is “new,” then I don’t think you are ever going to find common ground with the “haters.” 

 

I think you are seeing something completely different than I am.

 

This post is exactly what you are arguing against, taking a premise that “the WR’s are good” and using confirmation bias to suggest the scheme isn’t different this season. That’s just way off base imo.

[BillsVet]

58 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If the production continues, how can it still be considered a weakness?  

Do any of those questions really matter if we have seeing this type of production?  It's not like Allen is always throwing to tight windows because the WR's are blanketed.

 

That last sentence to me is saying that you're never going to give the WR's credit even if this production continues.  Brady isn't going to call a certain play if he feels he doesn't have the WR's to execute it and that includes getting open.  We are spreading the ball out because both Allen and Brady trust the WR's on the field.

Collectively they are good, or at least what they're showing now.  Raw stats aren't the only thing that prove a player is good or not.

 

But overall the league is down in passing.  Mel Kiper makes a crazy comment to eliminate the Cover 2 because it's hurting the deep passing attack.  Well we are adjusting to it and it seems like the FO is getting criticized for it.

 

This is the problem throughout this thread as it's continued during the season.  Some keep focusing on what's happened to predict what will/could.  I've seen you somewhat yield that things like defenses do change...but then go back to referencing how good they've been.    

 

Others have anticipated and used their intelligence guided by experience to predict that what's working now will be hindered as the season unfolds.  And therefore...they'll need something to respond.  Typically, that's through winning 1 on 1 matchups. 

 

Go on believing that past performance reasonably is a barometer.  Right now, the scheme is covering up a deficiency...the lack of better WR talent...and it will be brought out into the open.    

 

Average reception for WR's right now is about 11.5 yards.  Same with TE's.  That doesn't cut it and it's a reason why the Comp % is so high.  

Edited 2 hours ago by BillsVet

[GoBills808]

57 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If the production continues, how can it still be considered a weakness?  

Do any of those questions really matter if we have seeing this type of production?  It's not like Allen is always throwing to tight windows because the WR's are blanketed.

 

That last sentence to me is saying that you're never going to give the WR's credit even if this production continues.  Brady isn't going to call a certain play if he feels he doesn't have the WR's to execute it and that includes getting open.  We are spreading the ball out because both Allen and Brady trust the WR's on the field.

Collectively they are good, or at least what they're showing now.  Raw stats aren't the only thing that prove a player is good or not.

 

But overall the league is down in passing.  Mel Kiper makes a crazy comment to eliminate the Cover 2 because it's hurting the deep passing attack.  Well we are adjusting to it and it seems like the FO is getting criticized for it.

 

 

So i think this is why it's early to start really evaluating the offense as a whole

 

Imo our scoring output is inflated wrt our yards generated which is not unusual in a small sample 

 Just need more games to come to a determination

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

I mean things have to be looked at in perspective. Yes I would draft another WR, i'm not going to argue that point but it looks like Brady has put a focus on everyone getting involved including the Tight End's and Running Backs.  We also have blown out 2 of the 3 teams we have played and essentially have ran the ball for 3 or 4 quarters so far this year after the games were no longer in the balance so the WR statistics would look better if we actually had to throw the ball. Their making the plays they have been asked to make so far and outside of the Cook drop we have been sure handed.

I agree wholeheartedly with all of it.

 

The question remains, are the WRs going to be good enough when they are counted on? We don’t know. I was hesitant before the year and haven’t seen anything to change my mind (good or bad). I thought that they were a bottom 3 group coming in (with Chargers and Pats). The Ravens may be worse than all of them. They are bottom 4 for me but the passing game is not. The passing game is very good.  I just don’t see it as a function of elite wr play. I see an elite scheme and guys executing it.

[ColoradoBills]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If the draft were held tomorrow, where would you want the Bills to use their first pick? Their 2 seconds? I don’t see a scenario where WR isn’t at least one of those. It’s the biggest hole on the team still despite a strong passing game so far. That’s why it’s a weakness. 

 

Of the 5 roster WRs, 2 are UFAs next year.  Both are on the wrong side of 30.  I would bet that one of the top 3 picks goes to WR.

I can also see a DB and DL in the top 3 (as of now).

 

What I think some fans are forgetting is that the WR position may not have been addressed as much as some would have liked AND

I do believe if Beane had a chance he would have added something more.

 

The point is WR was not the only thing needing to be addressed this offseason.  What I see so far is a positive thing compared to all

the "pundits" claiming this was a retool/rebuild year.  The WR room is not looking near as bad as some predicted IMO.

 

When you look at the offense going into next year (and it's still very early to finalize) it's looking pretty good at QB, RB, TE and OL.

I see another big addition to WR.  Just look at the Spotrac Bills Multi-Year Table.  It looks good everywhere but WR, so I have some patience.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/yearly

 

 

[BillsVet]

9 minutes ago, eball said:

You've said a lot of things I disagree with over the years, but this one has me shaking my head.

 

Umm, what?

 

What, precisely, do you think Josh's strength is?  Winging the ball 50 yards down the field?  Playing QB like he's Jim Brown?

 

Jim Brown didn't play QB.  

 

Also typical you with some hyperbolic nonsense about throwing it "50 yards down the field."  No rational minded fan expects a QB to throw it like that all the time.  

 

Point is, they have a QB who can hit throws no other QB in the league can save Mahomes and surrounded him with WR's who don't complement that.  

 

Their passing game is designed to throw close to LOS and to Josh's credit he's hitting those throws.  But some of you can't wrap your heads around if that's hindered how they would respond with that group of WRs needing to make catches downfield.   

[Einstein's Dog]

13 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I agree wholeheartedly with all of it.

 

The question remains, are the WRs going to be good enough when they are counted on? We don’t know. I was hesitant before the year and haven’t seen anything to change my mind (good or bad). I thought that they were a bottom 3 group coming in (with Chargers and Pats). The Ravens may be worse than all of them. They are bottom 4 for me but the passing game is not. The passing game is very good.  I just don’t see it as a function of elite wr play. I see an elite scheme and guys executing it.

I think people (which includes you) way, way, underrate catch percentage.  The Bills pass catchers have great hands.  J Brady has designed and run the scheme to match this excellent attribute.

 

Remember the wide open drop M Harrison had against the Bills game one?  What is the worst drop the Bills have had this season?  I can't think of one.

 

While I would love a top tier outside WR, it's tricky because they are almost all of them are diva's who would want the ball thrown their way 8 - 10 times, no matter the team circumstances.

[34-78-83]

For those citing stats in either narrative's direction - of the 85 minutes and 20 seconds the Bills offense has had the ball thus far in 3 games, approximately 25 minutes of it has been running out the clock with large leads in hand. The course of a season should balance things out so that the numbers have some sort of significance, at least for the gist of this debate.

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Jim Brown didn't play QB.  

 

Also typical you with some hyperbolic nonsense about throwing it "50 yards down the field."  No rational minded fan expects a QB to throw it like that all the time.  

 

Point is, they have a QB who can hit throws no other QB in the league can save Mahomes and surrounded him with WR's who don't complement that.  

 

Their passing game is designed to throw close to LOS and to Josh's credit he's hitting those throws.  But some of you can't wrap your heads around if that's hindered how they would respond with that group of WRs needing to make catches downfield.   

The point is you are assuming things are going to be negative in the future for God knows what reason.  The point is that many teams are playing Cover 2 right now so the smart football is shorter passing routes.  The point is that since Brady took over as OC the offense has been cooking and we haven’t seen evidence yet that defenses have adjusted.  The point is that when defenses have allowed shots downfield we’ve seen guys like Coleman get open for a TD, Ty Johnson for a TD, MVS (Josh just missed him) and so on.  The point is that Josh is thriving in this office and is being touted as the leader in the MVP race for running this offense so well.  The point is that, unless I’m missing some, folks harping about the WR corps don’t seem to be posting in many other threads, which leads one to question if the reason they do so here is simply to be negative.

 

I’ll stop there, but you get my point.

4 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think people (which includes you) way, way, underrate catch percentage.  The Bills pass catchers have great hands.  J Brady has designed and run the scheme to match this excellent attribute.

 

Remember the wide open drop M Harrison had against the Bills game one?  What is the worst drop the Bills have had this season?  I can't think of one.

 

While I would love a top tier outside WR, it's tricky because they are almost all of them are diva's who would want the ball thrown their way 8 - 10 times, no matter the team circumstances.

There you go.  Well stated.

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that this a lot of this conversation. Can the Bills move the ball without elite WRs? Yep. Does that mean that the WRs are good? Nope. Both of those are true.

 

Those of us that have concerns have been, “are the WRs good enough when we need them to be?” The answer is still TBD. The outside WRs should need to contribute this week. We won’t know the answer for some time though. Shakir has been Cole Beasley that can run after the catch. He’s a quality WR. He’s not a number 1 at this point. They don’t have anyone else contributing at all really. The offense has still been quite good. So far though, the WRs remain the weakness of the team (specifically on the boundary). Will it matter? We don’t know yet.

 

You can't just keep saying the WR's aren't good and ignore facts, context and reality of what has really been happening on the field.  Anyone citing stat totals as you do in other posts below has already failed at accurately evaluating this group and are just trying to cling to previous negative takes that are not playing out on the field like they predicted.  

 

So if you are going to say they aren't good, then why don't you present film evidence of them not being good?  And before you go and do what you do every week and cite "stat totals", that is not evidence of them not being good.  Not when in week 1 Josh completed only 18 passes and to NINE different receivers...not when in week 2 Cook went off and the offense took the 2nd half off in a blow out...not when in week 3 Josh hit TEN different receivers and again the offense took the 2nd half off in another blow out win.  

 

If you want to insist that they are not good, then surely you can provide film evidence of them struggling and not being good.

 

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For sure, but it becomes a little chicken and egg. Shakir has been quite good. He’s trending for 79/952/11. He doing it with great efficiency. Those numbers aren’t “elite.” That’s quality. That’s a better version of Beasley. The rest of the WRs COMBINED have 16/182/2. If you extrapolate that out it’s 91/1031/11. Obviously circumstance has played a role and the trends will likely change. I don’t think ANYONE can say that they’d be okay with our WRs combining for under 2000 yards and 180 catches (despite how well they block).
 

 

Case in point right here...Shakir has caught an NFL record 27 straight targets...that is elite, that is an NFL record.  But because Allen is spreading the ball around you want to downplay Shakir by citing "projected totals" as if those projections are an indication of him being limited instead of the REAL context that Allen is throwing to everyone and the offense has essentially only played 3 halves of football the first 3 weeks through the context of the individual games.  

 

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The teams has played great. The coaching has been next level good. Shakir is a quality WR and the backs/tes have been good as well. The WRs were the biggest concern entering the year and remain that now. It’s still a bottom 3 group but it may not matter. That’s what we all hoped. The passing game has been quite good. The run game has been quite good and those boundary WRs deserve a lot of credit for that too. Will this offense continue clicking like this when teams adjust and force those guys to beat them? 

 

See I knew this would happen and predicted this earlier in this thread this offseason...all the people who went to the extreme with the WR's were never ever going to acknowledge they are better than they thought and just say its all Brady or Allen if the offense had success.

 

What happened to all the "nobody can get open without an elite WR drawing extra coverage" for example?  Guys are getting open all over the field without that "elite" guy.  

 

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think Brady has become the star. He has been masterful through 3 weeks. Everything is working. Unfortunately, we probably don’t have him back next year but this has been awesome to watch. 

 

No disrespect, but Brady looks great because the players are executing his offense great.  Brady can't be the "star" if the guys on the field "aren't good" and aren't doing their jobs at a high level.  So while Brady has been great, so have the players on the field.

 

Look...If you still are not sold because you haven't seen them go through a stiffer test or seen a bigger body of work, that is 100% fair and no objection from me.  But to say the WR's "are not good" after these past 3 weeks is just a stubborn commitment to a preseason opinion.  And to be fair, the first 3 weeks mean nothing other than they looked great the first 3 weeks.  Lot of football left, tougher tests to come, nothing is proven long term yet.  

Edited 2 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[Royale with Cheese]

41 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

This is the problem throughout this thread as it's continued during the season.  Some keep focusing on what's happened to predict what will/could.  I've seen you somewhat yield that things like defenses do change...but then go back to referencing how good they've been.    

 

Others have anticipated and used their intelligence guided by experience to predict that what's working now will be hindered as the season unfolds.  And therefore...they'll need something to respond.  Typically, that's through winning 1 on 1 matchups. 

 

Go on believing that past performance reasonably is a barometer.  Right now, the scheme is covering up a deficiency...the lack of better WR talent...and it will be brought out into the open.    

 

Average reception for WR's right now is about 11.5 yards.  Same with TE's.  That doesn't cut it and it's a reason why the Comp % is so high.  

 

So you are 100% saying that we will struggle passing the ball later in the season with this WR core?  Is that what you're saying?

[Magox]

This is the point that I’ve been hammering away since before the draft, that most SuperBowl winners over the past 20 years have done it without true prototypical “1” WR’s

 

How many stud #1’s did NE have out of their 7 wins?

 

answer 0

 

How many out of 3 KC’s wins ?

 

answer 1

 

The New York Giants 2 wins?

 

0

 

New Orleans 1 win?

 

0

 

GreenBays 1 win?

 

0

 

You can go back and find even more examples if you dig deep enough.

 

The Bills Wide Receivers with combination of great play calling, elite QB and their ability to execute, not drop the ball and get lots of YAC is a winning formula and they have the horses to go the distance.   It’s just a matter of the entire team does it for 4 quarters when they play the Chiefs in the playoffs .

 

 

[eball]

30 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Jim Brown didn't play QB.  

 

Also typical you with some hyperbolic nonsense about throwing it "50 yards down the field."  No rational minded fan expects a QB to throw it like that all the time.  

 

Point is, they have a QB who can hit throws no other QB in the league can save Mahomes and surrounded him with WR's who don't complement that.  

 

Their passing game is designed to throw close to LOS and to Josh's credit he's hitting those throws.  But some of you can't wrap your heads around if that's hindered how they would respond with that group of WRs needing to make catches downfield.   

 

Incorrect, in particular because you are limiting your comment to WRs.  Kincaid gets down the field.  Cook gets down the field (even though he drops it).  Coleman's TD was down the field.

 

The Bills' passing game is clearly designed to give Josh some "easy answers" without waiting for deep routes to develop.  KC runs the same damn thing!  Are they limiting their strength at QB too?

 

The modern NFL demands quick plays...the Bills are adapting to that, not fighting against it.  I'll take 75+% Josh with a 7-0 TD/INT ratio, making some "Superman" plays here and there when he has to, every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

 

I watched the Giants/Cowboys game last night, and saw Jones force feed "true WR1" Nabers the ball 11 or 12 times for over 100 yards.  The Giants still didn't score a TD and lost a game in which they held Dallas to 20 points.

 

Sometimes I think many of you are just rooting for your fantasy football stats...

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by eball

[Royale with Cheese]

53 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Jim Brown didn't play QB.  

 

Also typical you with some hyperbolic nonsense about throwing it "50 yards down the field."  No rational minded fan expects a QB to throw it like that all the time.  

 

Point is, they have a QB who can hit throws no other QB in the league can save Mahomes and surrounded him with WR's who don't complement that.  

 

Their passing game is designed to throw close to LOS and to Josh's credit he's hitting those throws.  But some of you can't wrap your heads around if that's hindered how they would respond with that group of WRs needing to make catches downfield.   

 

It's a league wide issue Einstein.  It makes me laugh you go after peoples intelligence.

 

It started trending that way a few seasons ago.  Which is why it made sense now the Chiefs did trade Hill. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38378450/nfl-death-long-passing-deep-ball-aerial-yards-negative-trend

 

"I had to learn when to just take what's underneath. That's something where I've kind of grown and matured. We'll call deep plays still all the time, but if defenses are going to play that deep, even though I want to in my heart of hearts to throw it downfield and make those big plays, I'll take the underneath stuff and find ways to move the ball down the field that way."

The evolution of Mahomes' aerial attack mirrors a league-wide trend that last season saw the fewest number of deep balls attempted -- defined as traveling at least 15 air yards -- since 2006.

 

 

 

continued from Barnwell:

And while this isn't something brand new, I think defenses have gotten much better at masking what they want to do while hyper-focusing on picking apart the most static and predictable thing offenses have: their protections. And they're better at doing that while still staying sound in coverage than they have been in the past, in part because they're playing with more defensive backs.

Edited 1 hour ago by Royale with Cheese

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

Others have anticipated and used their intelligence guided by experience to predict that what's working now will be hindered as the season unfolds.  And therefore...they'll need something to respond.  Typically, that's through winning 1 on 1 matchups. 

 

Go on believing that past performance reasonably is a barometer.  Right now, the scheme is covering up a deficiency...the lack of better WR talent...and it will be brought out into the open.    

 

Weird...Jags played man all game and we dismantled them.  Our guys won their 1 on 1 matchups all day Sunday...well at least the first half until we were so far ahead we just took a vacation the 2nd half and chewed clock.  

 

This is soooo predictable and I predicted it like 100 pages ago in this thread that the people on the negative extreme with the WR's would NEVER admit the WR's were better than they thought if the offense had a lot of success this year and would give all the credit to Josh and/or Brady.  

 

Now...3 weeks is too small a sample size to prove anything, we still need to see how Brady and the offense respond to DC's when they get more film on the offense.  But its already happening...you and others are already giving all the credit to Brady (who many of you also crapped on this offseason, I am NOT sure if you did or did not about Brady, but many of the others I know did) even now so no reason to think it will be different if this offense keeps up the whole season.

Edited 1 hour ago by Alphadawg7

[pennstate10]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Its not about numbers. That was where I had them pre-season. I need to see more before I move them up.

Gotcha. They don’t pass your eye test 

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Weird...Jags played man all game and we dismantled them.  Our guys won their 1 on 1 matchups all day Sunday...well at least the first half until we were so far ahead we just took a vacation the 2nd half and chewed clock.  

 

This is soooo predictable and I predicted it like 100 pages ago in this thread that the people on the negative extreme with the WR's would NEVER admit the WR's were better than they thought if the offense had a lot of success this year and would give all the credit to Josh and/or Brady.  

 

Now...3 weeks is too small a sample size to prove anything, we still need to see how Brady and the offense respond to DC's when they get more film on the offense.  But its already happening...you and others are already giving all the credit to Brady (who many of you also crapped on this offseason, I am NOT sure if you did or did not about Brady, but many of the others I know did) even now so no reason to think it will be different if this offense keeps up the whole season.

 

He didn't know that the Jags mostly played man.  He just made up something to criticize the Bills for.

 

He also didn't know that its a league wide issues of throwing the ball downfield.  He just wanted something else to criticize the Bills about.

 

This is who he always is.

[Alphadawg7]

24 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

So you are 100% saying that we will struggle passing the ball later in the season with this WR core?  Is that what you're saying?

 

No, he is just saying he is right and you are wrong...don't matter what happens on the field.  And that is all this thread is about...being right.  I mean who cares we have the number 1 offense in the league despite only really running our full offense for barely over 3 halves of football through 3 games right?

 

22 minutes ago, Magox said:

This is the point that I’ve been hammering away since before the draft, that most SuperBowl winners over the past 20 years have done it without true prototypical “1” WR’s

 

How many stud #1’s did NE have out of their 7 wins?

 

answer 0

 

How many out of 3 KC’s wins ?

 

answer 1

 

The New York Giants 2 wins?

 

0

 

New Orleans 1 win?

 

0

 

GreenBays 1 win?

 

0

 

You can go back and find even more examples if you dig deep enough.

 

The Bills Wide Receivers with combination of great play calling, elite QB and their ability to execute, not drop the ball and get lots of YAC is a winning formula and they have the horses to go the distance.   It’s just a matter of the entire team does it for 4 quarters when they play the Chiefs in the playoffs .

 

 

 

Funny watching people complain about running a similar offense to what the made Pats and Chiefs into dynasties, especially from people who essentially prefer we mimic the Dolphins approach to building a team who can't beat a .500 team or win a playoff game.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Gotcha. They don’t pass your eye test 

 

Correct. As @Kirby Jackson said earlier. Shakir is about as expected. Coleman too (but my expectations were not high). Hollins slightly better. Samuel a fair bit worse. MVS as expected.

[Royale with Cheese]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No, he is just saying he is right and you are wrong...don't matter what happens on the field.  And that is all this thread is about...being right.  I mean who cares we have the number 1 offense in the league despite only really running our full offense for barely over 3 halves of football through 3 games right?

 

Spreading the ball around is a negative somehow.