I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[dave mcbride]

Note the overall offensive rankings and the production of the non-slot WRs of this recent NFL team: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2016.htm

[zow2]

Looking forward to seeing Keon get up to speed and really become a factor.  He’s got some bada$$ in him. You can tell. 

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. I said it in the GDT on Monday night. His ball placement on those moving laterally short throws has really improved even compared to 2020 and 2021 when he was already an elite QB but struggled at times with those plays. It is part of the massive improvement in YAC we have seen. It isn't all of it - type of receivers and type of route play a part too. But those sorts of throws are an area Josh has improved even since his breakout.

 

 

Yeah, agreed. Even between this year and last year placement and ball speed as well has really gotten better on the short balls, IMO.

 

And he just seems more willing to take those shorter throws rather than hoping something will open up later.

 

Orlovsky was on One Bills Drive last night Chris Brown and Chris said this, "I don't know what it is, but there was a play last night, he thought for a half a second about throwing a 40 yard rope to the end zone on a low percentage play and he checks it down instead to Cook and it goes for 15 yards and my eyes opened up really big and I said, 'Oh, my Gosh, that was a Mahomes-like decision right there that he just made on the check-down to Cook.' It's a small sample but I'm wondering if we're seeing a maturation of Josh with that decision-making that makes him even more consistent."

 

Orlovsky said, "Yeah, I absolutely think you are, it sounds like you are as well when you sit there and you talk with him and you hear him kind of share how he's feeling in the offense. ... I'll go back two or three years ago, sitting with Brandon Beane talking about where Josh at least in that moment they were hoping that Josh was going to get kind of where he sits right now. And Brandon said, 'it's my job that I have to put enough people around him that he feels okay with making some of those decisions, that if you do check the ball down that there's a person there worthy of checking the ball down to and that you can go get 12 or 15 yards.' When you rattle off the names, the sum is greater than the individual parts. It reminds me of 2017 when the Eagles won the Super Bowl, there wasn't this thousand yard receiver or this superstar."

 

This hit the nail on the head for me. The Beane quote there isn't that we have to get him a Diggs, it was that they have to get him "enough people around him that he feels okay with making some of those decisions." They didn't want to get rid of Diggs, but they did want to bring in a lot of guys that made Josh feel comfortable.

 

I think Josh has improved and the situation he's in isn't as bad with guys to catch the ball as many had feared.

[Simon]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

the question is whether this offense has the horses to win in February.  

 

If they can't win in February, I'm doubtful that it will be because Allen didn't have the luxury of an All Pro in the WR room.

 

 

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Role players can just be schemed out.

 

If there's 5 of them and they're all genuinely good?

Good luck with that; it's a tough ask of any defense.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Note the overall offensive rankings and the production of the non-slot WRs of this recent NFL team: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2016.htm

 

Ok.

 

That 2016 Patriots group of receiving options finished 4th in the NFL in passing yards.

 

The 2024 Bills are currently 14th in that category and WR is a particularly low producing area of that group.

 

There aren't any Bills WR's tracking toward Edelman's numbers as their WR1 or Hogan's numbers as a WR2.  

 

And those were 16 game season numbers back then to boot. 

 

Maybe as the schedule gets easier we'll see that WR corps blow up. 

 

13 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

If they can't win in February, I'm doubtful that it will be because Allen didn't have the luxury of an All Pro in the WR room.

 

 

 

If there's 5 of them and they're all genuinely good?

Good luck with that; it's a tough ask of any defense.

 

 

Thanks for the seat of your pants analysis.    

 

Let me know who those people who you claim said the Bills were "irretrievably lost" without a WR1 were when you get the time to back up your claims. 😂

Edited 20 hours ago by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nah.

 

Not so. It'll be well before February.

Having said that, you're right that with three games, the sample size is still too small by quite a bit. That's a reasonable point.

 

 

Considering that the question was always whether they had a SB worthy WR group.......no........it won't be resolved until they make it there.

 

Or don't.

 

In February.

 

WR is still the worst unit, relative to the rest of the league, that the Bills have.   Not LB or S. 

 

Who says no and if so which unit is lesser?

[dave mcbride]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Ok.

 

That 2016 Patriots group of receiving options finished 4th in the NFL in passing yards.

 

The 2024 Bills are currently 14th in that category and WR is a particularly low producing area of that group.

 

There aren't any Bills WR's tracking toward Edelman's numbers as their WR1 or Hogan's numbers as a WR2.  

 

And those were 16 game season numbers back then to boot. 

 

Maybe as the schedule gets easier we'll see that WR corps blow up. 

 

 

 

Thanks for the seat of your pants analysis.    

 

Let me know who those people who you claim said the Bills were "irretrievably lost" without a WR1 were when you get the time to back up your claims. 😂

In two of their three games, they’ve had barely any passing yards in the second half, so I am not sure that matters. If you look passing yards per attempt, passer rating, and adjusted net yards per attempt, you’ll see that the Bills are at the top of the league. I do realize it’s only three games, so I’m not saying things can’t change for the worse. But it’s better to focus on the passing stats that are truly indicative of a good passing game (especially adjusted net yards per attempt).

[Motorin']

10 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Note the overall offensive rankings and the production of the non-slot WRs of this recent NFL team: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2016.htm

 

We are definitely playing Brady Ball. And the Pats won many of those years executing a system that features slot receivers, TE's and RB's in the passing game, combined with a strong commitment to running the ball.

 

The analysis by several posters, that recent Super Bowl winning teams need two #1 outside receivers have typically excluded the Pats as an outlier due to Brady being the Goat. 

 

But Josh can win playing Brady Ball. Even Tom Brady thinks Josh and the Bills can win the Super Bowl playing Brady Ball.

 

Chris Hogan was the most productive outside wr on the 2016 Pats, and was basically their #4 target. 

 

Edelman (slot) Bennett (TE), White (RB), Gronk (TE) and Amendola (slot) combined for about 3,000 yards and 75% of that team's receptions. 

 

 

[nedboy7]

A true top 5 egomaniac WR would not be happy in this offense.  Lots of high end #1 WRs in the league.  All of them went home last Feb. 

[Mikey152]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Ok.

 

That 2016 Patriots group of receiving options finished 4th in the NFL in passing yards.

 

The 2024 Bills are currently 14th in that category and WR is a particularly low producing area of that group.

 

There aren't any Bills WR's tracking toward Edelman's numbers as their WR1 or Hogan's numbers as a WR2.  

 

And those were 16 game season numbers back then to boot. 

 

Maybe as the schedule gets easier we'll see that WR corps blow up. 

 

 

 

Thanks for the seat of your pants analysis.    

 

Let me know who those people who you claim said the Bills were "irretrievably lost" without a WR1 were when you get the time to back up your claims. 😂

You keep missing the point. Counting stats like yards are for losers. Bills might be 14th in receiving yards, but they’re also 29th in attempts, 1st in touchdowns and second in receiving touchdowns. In other words, they’re extremely efficient. 

 

Josh’s yards per attempt this season is 8.8, and it’s being drug DOWN by the Miami game where he clearly wasn’t trying to or needing to make plays. Last season, Only 4/17 games were better (none of them were the first three) and most weren’t even close. 
 

you might argue they are doing all that in spite of the receivers, but all the other position groups and the oc are the same as last year for the most part…it’s not all the receivers, but clearly they are playing a part in the success. 
 

individual stats down, team stats up. Sounds like exactly what the “positive” crowd was predicting.

[RoscoeParrish]

13 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

You keep missing the point. Counting stats like yards are for losers. Bills might be 14th in receiving yards, but they’re also 29th in attempts, 1st in touchdowns and second in receiving touchdowns. In other words, they’re extremely efficient. 

 

Josh’s yards per attempt this season is 8.8, and it’s being drug DOWN by the Miami game where he clearly wasn’t trying to or needing to make plays. Last season, Only 4/17 games were better (none of them were the first three) and most weren’t even close. 
 

you might argue they are doing all that in spite of the receivers, but all the other position groups and the oc are the same as last year for the most part…it’s not all the receivers, but clearly they are playing a part in the success. 
 

individual stats down, team stats up. Sounds like exactly what the “positive” crowd was predicting.

Early returns have been promising.

 

its a long season though.

 

Remember, after week 4 last year, the Bills were 3-1 and put up wins with 37, 38 and 48 points.
 

Now, just like then, there’s a lot to like, but there’s even more we are yet to see. 
 

The true test for an offense is midseason on, when teams have a lot of tape and tendencies to go off of. It’s clear to me that we don’t have anyone who can be schemed against and win anyway (but then again, we didn’t have that last year). 
 

It’s all up to Brady. Dorsey got sunk because he got figured out every year.

Edited 10 hours ago by RoscoeParrish

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Literally, that entire piece about QB singles hitting in The Athletic WITH ACTUAL LONG AND DETAILED QUOTES FROM JOSH ALLEN said it all. All the rest, including our ex post facto analyses, is noise, IMHO.

 

 

I remember early in Josh's career we discussed the concept of "arm talent" and how Josh just didn't have the feel at that time.   It's bizarre to see a throwing pro athlete without a range of speeds/deliveries that many HS athletes already have but that was the case.   He was largely just beating the defense with his fastball.

 

The touch on the deep ball was the bigger point of emphasis but there were clear holes in his repertoire of available passes.    Back then The Athletic story of note was more about how QB's who had experience a shortstop in baseball had a much greater range of throws available to them.   Josh was not that type.   He was more like Aaron Judge........a big armed right fielder.  

 

I've heard Shill Capaccio going on about how much better Allen's mechanics are now but to be really good on short throws you have to be able to do it off platform or without ideal footwork as well.   And he's doing that.  Seeing Josh finally develop more touch actually gives me hope that he can meet Mahomes as the co-#1 QB in the NFL at least.     Without that,  it wasn't happening.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

In two of their three games, they’ve had barely any passing yards in the second half, so I am not sure that matters. If you look passing yards per attempt, passer rating, and adjusted net yards per attempt, you’ll see that the Bills are at the top of the league. I do realize it’s only three games, so I’m not saying things can’t change for the worse. But it’s better to focus on the passing stats that are truly indicative of a good passing game (especially adjusted net yards per attempt).

 

 

If the WR comparison doesn't matter.........then why are you specifically drawing WR corps comparisons with that link?   The efficiency stats are fine but when James Cook ran for 5.7 yards per carry in 2022 was that a better accomplishment than LeSean McCoy running for 5.4 in 2016?   Being efficient at your 3rd or 4th best pitch doesn't make it your bread and butter.   Ultimately, the discussion here is about the WR group.   What do you think is their weakest position group on offense?

[BADOLBILZ]

52 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

You keep missing the point. Counting stats like yards are for losers. Bills might be 14th in receiving yards, but they’re also 29th in attempts, 1st in touchdowns and second in receiving touchdowns. In other words, they’re extremely efficient. 

 

Josh’s yards per attempt this season is 8.8, and it’s being drug DOWN by the Miami game where he clearly wasn’t trying to or needing to make plays. Last season, Only 4/17 games were better (none of them were the first three) and most weren’t even close. 
 

you might argue they are doing all that in spite of the receivers, but all the other position groups and the oc are the same as last year for the most part…it’s not all the receivers, but clearly they are playing a part in the success. 
 

individual stats down, team stats up. Sounds like exactly what the “positive” crowd was predicting.

 

 

No you are being ignorant about subject matter in this thread.......the OP was literally counting yards.

 

If you want to amend the discussion start a new thread about how what you really meant was that the Bills only need 117 yards receiving per game from their WR's.

 

And that MUCH less production meant that they were better.   

 

Did you make yardage predictions in that thread?   Don't make me look it up and embarrass you.   Own it if you thought 5 WR's were going to get at least 400 yards or something like that.

 

Everyone is NOT eating at WR.  They have just been put on a low yard diet. 

[dave mcbride]

35 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I remember early in Josh's career we discussed the concept of "arm talent" and how Josh just didn't have the feel at that time.   It's bizarre to see a throwing pro athlete without a range of speeds/deliveries that many HS athletes already have but that was the case.   He was largely just beating the defense with his fastball.

 

The touch on the deep ball was the bigger point of emphasis but there were clear holes in his repertoire of available passes.    Back then The Athletic story of note was more about how QB's who had experience a shortstop in baseball had a much greater range of throws available to them.   Josh was not that type.   He was more like Aaron Judge........a big armed right fielder.  

 

I've heard Shill Capaccio going on about how much better Allen's mechanics are now but to be really good on short throws you have to be able to do it off platform or without ideal footwork as well.   And he's doing that.  Seeing Josh finally develop more touch actually gives me hope that he can meet Mahomes as the co-#1 QB in the NFL at least.     Without that,  it wasn't happening.

Josh actually played right field (and pitcher) in HS.

28 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If the WR comparison doesn't matter.........then why are you specifically drawing WR corps comparisons with that link?   The efficiency stats are fine but when James Cook ran for 5.7 yards per carry in 2022 was that a better accomplishment than LeSean McCoy running for 5.4 in 2016?   Being efficient at your 3rd or 4th best pitch doesn't make it your bread and butter.   Ultimately, the discussion here is about the WR group.   What do you think is their weakest position group on offense?

I don't know because we haven't had enough time to see how good Samuel, Hollins, Coleman, Shakhir, MVS are in combination with arguably the best QB in the league at the moment throwing to them. I'll reserve judgement until after 11-12 games or so. It's a long season and guys like Samuel have been playing with garbage QBs their entire careers. We don't know good Coleman is either, but so far he looks pretty solid. Shakhir is obviously a good player. That's been established.

[Rockinon]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Considering that the question was always whether they had a SB worthy WR group.......no........it won't be resolved until they make it there.

 

Or don't.

 

In February.

 

WR is still the worst unit, relative to the rest of the league, that the Bills have.   Not LB or S. 

 

Who says no and if so which unit is lesser?

Take the W off of WR and look at who's catching the ball. It's not just wide receivers. TEs and RBs are very much a big factor.

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

No you are being ignorant about subject matter in this thread.......the OP was literally counting yards.

 

If you want to amend the discussion start a new thread about how what you really meant was that the Bills only need 117 yards receiving per game from their WR's.

 

And that MUCH less production meant that they were better.   

 

Did you make yardage predictions in that thread?   Don't make me look it up and embarrass you.   Own it if you thought 5 WR's were going to get at least 400 yards or something like that.

 

Everyone is NOT eating at WR.  They have just been put on a low yard diet. 

 

@Mikey152 was saying Curtis Samuel will replace Stefon Diggs production in this offense. I remember him extrapolating Samuel's yards per target to mean that he could rack up 1,400 yards in this offense.

 

(Sorry for the call out Mikey, feel free to call me out for the fact that I didn't know if the Bills offense could be a top 10 scoring offense with this receiving group.)

 

Every WR right now is meeting the expectation I had. The sole exception is Samuel who is coming in well below my expectation. The surprise of the season is not that the Bills WRs are performing above their weight class, but that the offense as a whole is efficient as can be despite having such middling WR production. To me the three biggest reasons for that in order are Josh Allen taking his game to another level, the OL being stellar in pass protection, and Joe Brady leaning on his players' strengths and actually gameplanning for his opponents. The WR room is definitely still a weakness overall. But I can't say it's an insurmountable problem until it becomes one on the scoreboard.

 

Edited 9 hours ago by HappyDays

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Take the W off of WR and look at who's catching the ball. It's not just wide receivers. TEs and RBs are very much a big factor.

 

Yep and you are welcome to start a different thread about that.  This thread is about the WR corps specifically.

 

 

[Rocky Landing]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Considering that the question was always whether they had a SB worthy WR group.......no........it won't be resolved until they make it there.

 

Or don't.

 

In February.

 

WR is still the worst unit, relative to the rest of the league, that the Bills have.   Not LB or S. 

 

Who says no and if so which unit is lesser?

To the bolded, that is significantly moving the goalposts. The question throughout this thread has been how well the WR would perform. Many of your own posts have centered around how this WR group would project, based on past performance. The Super Bowl has been mentioned very little.

 

In the context of this 127 page discussion, it is perfectly relevant to start evaluating the WR room, even if it's only based on three games.

 

So far, it would appear that:

• Shakir is emerging as the #1 WR
• Coleman, while promising, has gotten few targets (as expected).
• Hollins is being used a role WR (as expected).
• Samuel has not been nearly as productive as many have hoped.
• MVS (with his continued 50% completion rate) has not been nearly as productive as many have hoped.

[BADOLBILZ]

19 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Josh actually played right field (and pitcher) in HS.

I don't know because we haven't had enough time to see how good Samuel, Hollins, Coleman, Shakhir, MVS are in combination with arguably the best QB in the league at the moment throwing to them. I'll reserve judgement until after 11-12 games or so. It's a long season and guys like Samuel have been playing with garbage QBs their entire careers. We don't know good Coleman is either, but so far he looks pretty solid. Shakhir is obviously a good player. That's been established.

 

 

Yeah you seem to be taking offense to the ongoing discussion.   Like it should be suspended.   The topic of the thread was established long ago.

 

I have said many times in this thread that we won't know if the plan at WR worked until February because the goal isn't to lose in January again.   They entered the offseason knowing WR was a weakness.    They made a series of moves.  We will see if they were better in February.

 

But there are a lot of people trying to totally re-frame the subject matter of the thread or re-adjust their argument and try to take a victory lap for the team winning another September Bowl.    There is even a mod who is gaslighting us with hyperbole about the degree of concern about not having a WR1.

 

It's illogical but comical and makes for some entertaining banter.   This board is just entertainment, after all.