I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[3rdand12]

On 6/23/2024 at 2:35 PM, Playoffs? said:

I don’t know… my big question is: who is going to command double coverage?  Diggs was double covered a lot, freeing up guys like Shakir and Davis.  Who is going to help free up Shakir this season?

 

If one of our guys develops into someone that can require some additional coverage, we’ll be just fine.

I think it might be better said , can Bills draw a safety over to help the corner ?  Some body like Kincaid can do that on a seam route maybe ? Samuel of Claypool outside ? heck even Cook with his wheels might be given consideration at times

Make the defenses adjust during the game.

 That is what having strong depth of targets might offer.

Yes a Justin Jefferson is on everyone's wish list LOL

 But teams can we by having enough players with differing skill sets moving around.

If no one has noticed , I am big believer in that , OC is the determining factor in a complete and multiple game day threat over individual talent

 

Individual talent is the cherry on the Sunday

 go bills

[billsfan_34]

On 6/23/2024 at 8:55 AM, OldTimer1960 said:

I admit that I didn’t like Coleman as their WR choice in the draft, but I’ll root for him to succeed.  I would not expect very much from him yet - he is young and needs to learn to run better routes to get open.  Hopefully, he can do that well enough to be a big contributor in 25.

Route running definitely needs improvement. The plus- Coleman is open when he isn’t. Big span, huge mitts and catches everything 😊

[Mikie2times]

40 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

I think it might be better said , can Bills draw a safety over to help the corner ?  Some body like Kincaid can do that on a seam route maybe ? Samuel of Claypool outside ? heck even Cook with his wheels might be given consideration at times

Make the defenses adjust during the game.

 That is what having strong depth of targets might offer.

Yes a Justin Jefferson is on everyone's wish list LOL

 But teams can we by having enough players with differing skill sets moving around.

If no one has noticed , I am big believer in that , OC is the determining factor in a complete and multiple game day threat over individual talent

 

Individual talent is the cherry on the Sunday

 go bills

Do teams want a corner isolated on Claypool or Coleman while Allen goes madden mode? I don't think we need to run past them to threaten them downfield. Both these guys are a mismatch one on one downfield especially with the threat of Allen extending plays. 

Edited June 25 by Mikie2times

[PBF81]

56 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

 

Would love to see the data.  Did he post it?  

 

 

[3rdand12]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Fair

 

Kincaid was a swing at an elite player. The rest of them are meant to be role players. I’m including Coleman here. The Bills DESEPERATELY needed a WR at the top of the depth chart. They traded down twice and picked the 8th WR in the draft. That doesn’t scream, “we think this guy is a difference maker.”

 

They’ve made medium FA moves in McGovern and Samuel because they let bigger investments in those areas go (Morse and Diggs). I’d argue that the commitment to surrounding Josh with elite players is actually going backwards despite them allocating some resources over the last couple of drafts. They still haven’t addressed the top of the WR depth chart.

I am surprised you don't feel Offense has been getting addressed to an increasing degree this off season i might have to argue that my Friend Kirby.

But yea, no splashes this year. Just depth and some hopes

Solid depth is good if managed well. methinks strongly that Beane is looking at next years draft and Cap.

 Kincaid might be a win  and Coleman is a ??

 How would you feel if Claypool can turn his tide ?

Not a real "investment of course " but if that worked out ? Headed forward ?

 remain hopeful

 

[3rdand12]

33 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Do teams want a corner isolated on Claypool or Coleman while Allen goes madden mode? I don't think we need to run past them to threaten them downfield. Both these guys are a mismatch one on one downfield especially with the threat of Allen extending plays. 

Samael has some burst after catch. Shakir surprised me his field awareness pre and post catch and why I love him

Claypool ? Just hopeful for for him t make roster and make plays all season. Not detailed on his potential after falling off the cliff until he hit Miami

[Thurman#1]

On 6/23/2024 at 10:11 PM, PBF81 said:

 

Samuel had 92 & 91 targets the past two years.  Not sure why that changes much, particularly in a run first offense.  His YPR likely won't be much more than his career 10.7-ish.  

 

Brady's approach with McD breathing down his neck is troubling.  If Allen's completion % and rating under Brady don't improve from the 60.7% and 85.5 that it was, it will be problematic regardless of who's playing WR.  

 

 

It would indeed be depressing if the offense produced the same numbers under Brady.

 

But I don't think "McD breathing down his neck," was the problem. Much more likely it's Brady not having had an offseason and a training camp, having to deal with a playbook written by Dorsey, having to deal with winter weather which generally lowers passing game numbers naturally, and having to play four of his seven games against the Jets, Eagles, Chiefs and Dallas defenses. The Pats and Fins were also top ten Ds actually.

 

That was a damn tough slate, and yet they upped their scoring dramatically.

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

It would indeed be depressing if the offense produced the same numbers under Brady.

 

But I don't think "McD breathing down his neck," was the problem. Much more likely it's Brady not having had an offseason and a training camp, having to deal with a playbook written by Dorsey, having to deal with winter weather which generally lowers passing game numbers naturally, and having to play four of his seven games against the Jets, Eagles, Chiefs and Dallas defenses. The Pats and Fins were also top ten Ds actually.

 

That was a damn tough slate, and yet they upped their scoring dramatically.

 

Well, here's the thing with that, on one hand we're told that Brady outperformed Dorsey because he changed things up.  On the other hand we're told that he was essentially still running Dorsey's offense.  Can't be both.  

 

As to the Ds, not true.  I use scoring D, not yardage D because scoring is what counts and we're measuring our points scored.  

 

The Chargers' D was awful at 24th, Miami's ranked 22nd and the Pats' 15th.  The Jet D was all beaten up by that point in the season and didn't even resemble their starting D.  Talk about injuries.  

 

Dallas was good but they came to Buffalo flat off of their biggest game of the year vs. Philly whom they beat the Sunday Night prior, while we came into that game as if it was our Super Bowl.  The Eagles' D was worse than the Chargers' D and ranked 30th, and 26th in scoring.  

 

FWIW, the Jet D allowed 19.1 PPG through 9 games.  Then starting with us they allowed 27 or more points in five of their last 8 games.  The only three that they didn't were against anemic offensive teams the Falcons and Pats, and also the Texans.  

 

Keep in mind that we only averaged 19.3 PPG against the Chargers, Miami, and the Pats, two of which nearly beat us save for a D and STs TD in each of those two games.  So many teams worse than us on O scored more than we did against all three of those teams.  

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, here's the thing with that, on one hand we're told that Brady outperformed Dorsey because he changed things up.  On the other hand we're told that he was essentially still running Dorsey's offense.  Can't be both.  

 

As to the Ds, not true.  I use scoring D, not yardage D because scoring is what counts and we're measuring our points scored.  

 

The Chargers' D was awful at 24th, Miami's ranked 22nd and the Pats' 15th.  The Jet D was all beaten up by that point in the season and didn't even resemble their starting D.  Talk about injuries.  

 

Dallas was good but they came to Buffalo flat off of their biggest game of the year vs. Philly whom they beat the Sunday Night prior, while we came into that game as if it was our Super Bowl.  The Eagles' D was worse than the Chargers' D and ranked 30th, and 26th in scoring.  

 

FWIW, the Jet D allowed 19.1 PPG through 9 games.  Then starting with us they allowed 27 or more points in five of their last 8 games.  The only three that they didn't were against anemic offensive teams the Falcons and Pats, and also the Texans.  

 

Keep in mind that we only averaged 19.3 PPG against the Chargers, Miami, and the Pats, two of which nearly beat us save for a D and STs TD in each of those two games.  So many teams worse than us on O scored more than we did against all three of those teams.  

 

 

 

Yeah, well, using scoring D (or scoring O for that matter) is simply misleading. It's much more of a whole team stat. The reason people use yards rather than points is that it much better targets the defensive (or offensive) unit rather than the whole team. Scoring defense pretends that drive start isn't extremely relevant to how many points your offense will score and of course drive start is a huge factor in how many points you score. Not nearly so much in terms of how many yards you get. Nor does yards give the offense credit for your defensive pick six. Scoring does.

 

If the other team recovers a fumble or benefits from a terrific runback and starts on your one yard-line and your D makes them take four plays to score the touchdown, or even pushes them back 5 yards and makes them kick a field goal, the defense has performed well. But scoring defense shows a failure, allowing points. The defense allowed negative five yards but allowed three points. Clearly a failure using scoring defense. Whereas allowing a 98 yard drive that ends on a missed field goal is a huge success by the defense according to scoring defense.

 

Scoring, on offense and defense, is greatly affected by field position. It's probably 30 - 35% the other unit. Yards, on defense and offense, is about 98% on the unit you're measuring.

 

The Jets D was damn good all year long. Even the last half of the year they were well above average in yards and points, despite having to face more drives and better drive starts than most Ds did because of the Jets awful offense. The Bills offense scored the second highest number of yards the Jet D allowed in the last nine games of the year and the second highest number of points (the Browns benefitted from scoring a pick six, and starting one drive on the Jets 32 and one on the Jets 12 (that one failed on downs at the Jets 6), a perfect example of why scoring defense is limited in terms of evaluating the defensive unit's performance).

 

The Jets, Dallas, Miami, Chiefs and Pats all had very good defenses. That leaves only L.A. and Philly

 

Yeah, can't be both? Um, yeah, it can. Complex systems work that way. Things are not black and white once you go beyond light switches and such simple things. It absolutely can be both, in fact that's exactly what it is.

 

It's simply facts that he was using Dorsey's playbook and that he didn't have an offseason to prepare. And facts that the offense scored a lot better despite that. And it didn't appear much of that was due to the defense improving as injuries mounted. Yes, completion percentage and QB rating went down, also a fact. But given a choice between improving completion percentage and QB rating versus a serious improvement in offensive production in both yards and points, it's not difficult to say the production is a ton more important.

 

Again, it was winter and that was a very difficult slate of defenses, yet we were much more productive.

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, 3rdand12 said:

Samael has some burst after catch. Shakir surprised me his field awareness pre and post catch and why I love him

Claypool ? Just hopeful for for him t make roster and make plays all season. Not detailed on his potential after falling off the cliff until he hit Miami

I'm much more bullish on Claypool than most. We don't sign him unless he has a lot of good answers for why things went the way they did. His career is over if this doesn't work out. He likely needs the money. It's not a stretch to me that he might have just realized what he was about to lose.  Easy to say he's already had those chances but those experiences might have been enabling if anything. It was probably a bit of a wake up to see nobody wanted him. 

[PBF81]

10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, well, using scoring D (or scoring O for that matter) is simply misleading. It's much more of a whole team stat. The reason people use yards rather than points is that it much better targets the defensive (or offensive) unit rather than the whole team. Scoring defense pretends that drive start isn't extremely relevant to how many points your offense will score and of course drive start is a huge factor in how many points you score. Not nearly so much in terms of how many yards you get. Nor does yards give the offense credit for your defensive pick six. Scoring does.

 

If the other team recovers a fumble or benefits from a terrific runback and starts on your one yard-line and your D makes them take four plays to score the touchdown, or even pushes them back 5 yards and makes them kick a field goal, the defense has performed well. But scoring defense shows a failure, allowing points. The defense allowed negative five yards but allowed three points. Clearly a failure using scoring defense. Whereas allowing a 98 yard drive that ends on a missed field goal is a huge success by the defense according to scoring defense.

 

Scoring, on offense and defense, is greatly affected by field position. It's probably 30 - 35% the other unit. Yards, on defense and offense, is about 98% on the unit you're measuring.

 

The Jets D was damn good all year long. Even the last half of the year they were well above average in yards and points, despite having to face more drives and better drive starts than most Ds did because of the Jets awful offense. The Bills offense scored the second highest number of yards the Jet D allowed in the last nine games of the year and the second highest number of points (the Browns benefitted from scoring a pick six, and starting one drive on the Jets 32 and one on the Jets 12 (that one failed on downs at the Jets 6), a perfect example of why scoring defense is limited in terms of evaluating the defensive unit's performance).

 

The Jets, Dallas, Miami, Chiefs and Pats all had very good defenses. That leaves only L.A. and Philly

 

Yeah, can't be both? Um, yeah, it can. Complex systems work that way. Things are not black and white once you go beyond light switches and such simple things. It absolutely can be both, in fact that's exactly what it is.

 

It's simply facts that he was using Dorsey's playbook and that he didn't have an offseason to prepare. And facts that the offense scored a lot better despite that. And it didn't appear much of that was due to the defense improving as injuries mounted. Yes, completion percentage and QB rating went down, also a fact. But given a choice between improving completion percentage and QB rating versus a serious improvement in offensive production in both yards and points, it's not difficult to say the production is a ton more important.

 

Again, it was winter and that was a very difficult slate of defenses, yet we were much more productive.

 

Getting into some complexities there, and I hear ya, but keep in mind that offensive scheme style also impacts yardage offense.  i.e., teams that don't pass well but run well or simply run more, will have worse yardage offenses, and there's a correlation on D as well.  

 

There are a number of things that impact all of it, but at the end of the day it's scoring that matters.  

 

Let's see how it shakes out this season.  

 

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

It would indeed be depressing if the offense produced the same numbers under Brady.

 

But I don't think "McD breathing down his neck," was the problem. Much more likely it's Brady not having had an offseason and a training camp, having to deal with a playbook written by Dorsey, having to deal with winter weather which generally lowers passing game numbers naturally, and having to play four of his seven games against the Jets, Eagles, Chiefs and Dallas defenses. The Pats and Fins were also top ten Ds actually.

 

That was a damn tough slate, and yet they upped their scoring dramatically.

 

I think you kind of left off "having a starting QB with a sprained throwing shoulder that kept getting re-aggravated".  Josh commented the last couple games he felt like he was throwing pretty well again.  But methinks there's a reason Brady kind of put the passing game on "standby" for the Cowboys and Chargers games.

[Dablitzkrieg]

It's kind of hard to like them when you haven't seen them play together in this scheme.  My expectations are very low.  Outside of Kincaid, they're is no real threat

Edited June 25 by Dablitzkrieg

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Getting into some complexities there, and I hear ya, but keep in mind that offensive scheme style also impacts yardage offense.  i.e., teams that don't pass well but run well or simply run more, will have worse yardage offenses, and there's a correlation on D as well.  

 

There are a number of things that impact all of it, but at the end of the day it's scoring that matters.  

 

Let's see how it shakes out this season.  

 

 

 

It is indeed scoring that matters, we can definitely agree on that.

 

But there's a reason they say it's a field position game. The whole team has a major effect on how much you score, not just the offense. And the whole team has an effect on how much your opponent scores, not just your defense.

 

Yards is the best way to isolate the performance of one unit, and it's not close.

 

Offensive scheme impacts yardage offense? Yeah. A ton. Being more effective at running will make your offense more effective. Less effective running will make your offense less effective. Same with passing. Your scheme is very likely to affect your productivity. It's just that measuring effectiveness by yardage helps you isolate the offense from the rest of the team by a large amount. Same for the defense.

 

But being able to use his own scheme instead of Dorsey's is likely to be helpful, I think. On the other hand, losing Diggs is likely to hurt, but it seems there was some kind of problem that didn't permit him to be productive the last half of the season. Except as a decoy, at which he was still damn effective.

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think you kind of left off "having a starting QB with a sprained throwing shoulder that kept getting re-aggravated".  Josh commented the last couple games he felt like he was throwing pretty well again.  But methinks there's a reason Brady kind of put the passing game on "standby" for the Cowboys and Chargers games.

 

 

Yup, would absolutely have had a big effect.

[Richard Noggin]

58 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

It's kind of hard to like them when you haven't seen them play together in this scheme.  My expectations are very low.  Outside of Kincaid, they're is no real threat

 

Can't speak for you, of course, but it seems like most Bills fans and NFL commentators, in general, felt like the Bills in the draft needed a magical blue-chip boundary DEEP threat, and instead they traded those two most realistic, sought-after targets to the Chiefs (Worthy) and then the Panthers (Legette), before selecting Coleman. Feels like if they'd nabbed either Worthy or Legette that the vibes would be much more positive overall. Or even if they'd traded SO many 1st and 2nd day picks for the rights to Brian Thomas, Jr. The public sentiment called for a rigid, even reckless, pursuit of prospects based on 40 times, to be reductive. 

 

That, and Yards per Route Run, really influenced/narrowed everyone's WR draft expectations. 

 

I'll admit to buying into it. Allen has previously thrived with supposed deep threats on the outside like John Brown and Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis (and even Robert Foster to a flawed extent). So Worthy and Franklin and Legette seemed like legitimate threats. Then again, Allen has also NOT thrived with those same supposed deep threats on the outside like Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. So who knows what is most important. Beasley was more valuable in his first 2 seasons than many of us typically admit. Allen absolutely COOKED with a reliable, chain-moving slot guy. So who really knows. Why can't Kincaid be a better Beasley, and why can't the rest of the no-name WR crew do their jobs well and help Josh Allen excel? (Because of past performance, I guess. But even that isn't super damning.) 

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Gotcha!

 

Fair points, but again, it's not the regular season holding us back.   Everyone that's being honest already knows that it's been McD's defense preventing us from advancing further in the playoffs.  Not Allen.  That is relevant to the point.   The sidebar as to none of the other players on the team having stepped up in the playoffs with any consistency whatsoever also belies coaching.  

 

It's a pretty safe bet that anyone here would take a 9-8 finish, slipping in as a wild-card, then going 4-0 in the playoffs to win a championship, even if among those 8 regular season losses were 0-6 in the division.  The Party in Buffalo would commence and many of us could die happy in that way.  LOL  

 

What is not acceptable is posting a #1, 2, or 4 defense that plays like a #25th ranked defense (or worse) in the playoffs, or no players on the team stepping up but one that does everything.  

 

Again, without Allen we get the floor mopped with us in the playoffs generally speaking and instead of 5-6 under McD in the playoffs we'd have been 0-5 or 1-5 because we likely never would have advanced once and McD isn't even here at this point.  

 

 

 

No its not relevant to the point. What has stopped the Bills winning a Superbowl is one question. What will happen if Diggs and Davis tear it up elsewhere is another. 

[BobbyC81]

On 6/23/2024 at 5:20 AM, wppete said:

I agree. I think its an overall better WR room. 

I felt better about the group after they signed MVS.  Sure, he’s no star, but he’s more promising as a big deep threat than someone like Shorter.  At least the defense has to account for him.

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

No doubt, but in the world of problem resolution in business or for efficiency,  you always go for the lowest hanging fruit that causes the greatest problems first and which will generate the greatest improvement first, eh.  

 

Without Allen McD would have been winless, or perhaps a single win (Balt), in the playoffs, and that only because Jackson chokes in the playoffs.  

 

No player plays perfectly, but Allen's playoff performances at least are greater on average than his regular season performances.  The same cannot be said for the aforementioned failures.  

 

In short, he's not on the short list of reasons why we haven't won a Lombardi.  

 

 

 

 

He's not on the short list of areas we need to improve. Very lucky to have him. But a few mistakes at bad times hurt  in the Chiefs game last year.

 

In last year's playoff game against the Chiefs, the D was absolutely devastated by injuries, while the offense was healthy and Josh had a decent game but not a great one. Nearly everyone on the field was on that short list last year, but at least most of the defenders were 2nd or even 3rd stringers in as injury replacements. It may not have been a short list, but the offense simply wasn't very effective, and there were two plays by Josh that cost us dearly: that end zone shot when a bit of easy pocket movement leaves Josh an easy throw for seven points and

 

If he'd just stepped to the side to buy some room on that play with around 1:55 left in the 4th where he was lightly bumped on the throw to the end zone, we very likely score an extra seven. Tons of room everywhere else and he didn't step away from Jones pushing Dawkins into him just enough to affect the throw.

 

If he'd just thrown shorter on the play before the missed field goal instead of holding it. Nobody was wide open but Diggs had space and someone else was open short over the middle in position to get close to a 1st.

 

Remember he fumbled it at around 5:30 in the 4th, and we got very lucky with Kincaid recovering it? Just before that he missed Diggs and almost gifted McDuffie a pick six.

 

He sure didn't play badly. Pretty well, overall. But not at the level you expect of Josh in the playoffs.

 

I'm still pissed at the Diggs drop on the long ball, though. Frustrating. Three offensive possessions in the 4th quarter and only a missed FG out of it.

[Kirby Jackson]

10 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

I am surprised you don't feel Offense has been getting addressed to an increasing degree this off season i might have to argue that my Friend Kirby.

But yea, no splashes this year. Just depth and some hopes

Solid depth is good if managed well. methinks strongly that Beane is looking at next years draft and Cap.

 Kincaid might be a win  and Coleman is a ??

 How would you feel if Claypool can turn his tide ?

Not a real "investment of course " but if that worked out ? Headed forward ?

 remain hopeful

 

I think that subtracting Morse, Davis, Diggs and adding Coleman, Claypool and Samuel is a net loss. We keep looking at what they brought in but without what they replaced (thanks @HappyDays for saying it so much more succinctly). 
 

In terms of the guys, Kincaid was a swing at an elite player. He was the first TE off the board that they traded up for. Most thought that he’d be gone by the time that they picked. He was productive as a rookie and showed flashes of potential to be one of the league’s best TEs. We will see what that looks like as the primary pass catcher in year 2. He’s the exception imo.

 

It’s well documented on here that Coleman wasn’t my guy. I am terrified by his lack of separation. Obviously I’m hoping he turns into a good (or hopefully great) player. I just can’t be convinced that he is that and I don’t believe that the Bills think that either (at least that he’s a future number 1). If they felt that he was that guy, they wouldn’t have traded down twice. He was the 8th WR drafted. The Bills probably felt similarly about a bunch of receivers and would take which ever one was left. 
 

The Bills are positioned to get better next offseason for sure. I think that they will need another edge (unless Solomon comes on) and a WR at the top of the depth chart. They don’t need another guy they need “the” guy. Let’s hope that they don’t waste this year because they didn’t do enough at WR.

 

Also: Claypool has a ton of talent and is a waste. My buddy that’s a scout with the Bears told me what a terrible teammate he was. His quote, “we paid him to stay home and got better.” If he keeps his head on straight he can be as good as Davis was. I just think that the odds of that are < 20%.

Edited June 25 by Kirby Jackson

[JerseyBills]

9 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I'm much more bullish on Claypool than most. We don't sign him unless he has a lot of good answers for why things went the way they did. His career is over if this doesn't work out. He likely needs the money. It's not a stretch to me that he might have just realized what he was about to lose.  Easy to say he's already had those chances but those experiences might have been enabling if anything. It was probably a bit of a wake up to see nobody wanted him. 

Ya and he's coming to a no nonsense organization,  any slacking off and they'll cut him immediately,  we can only hope, he definitely is young enough and talented enough to resurrect his career and proved he could be a force in the nfl. That'd completely change the dynamic of this group and easily be the most talent surrounding Allen