I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

We know Keon is not who you would have taken and you have your doubts about him, but he has been a star at camp and has legit WR1 potential despite your personal concerns about him.

 

You know I loved the Keon Coleman pick Alpha. But recent reports have not been quite as optimistic as this. He struggled separating in the endzone against Chicago and reportedly struggled separating against Pittsburgh in the joint practice too. I'm not backing down on my initial feelings about him as a prospect, not even close, but we have to be realistic about the expectations in his rookie year. His game needs a lot of refinement. I knew that even when I was the loudest voice in the room advocating to draft him. His physical skills and work ethic make me confident he will get there eventually. As far as this year though I can't see him immediately performing like a true WR1. Those are big shoes to fill for a raw young rookie.

 

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for Metcalf or Hopkins at the trade deadline.

[hondo in seattle]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You can’t say “we don’t know how any of these dude are gonna perform so it’s worthless to discuss them on paper” then “these dudes are definitely than those dudes on paper.”

 

Pick a lane

He had an elite defense, like one of the better defenses in seasons and they showed up in the postseason.

 

If we get that, sure I’m not worried about a little step back offensively. Don’t see that coming either, personally.

 

I'm not expecting a Lombardi but I'm not expecting a sh*tshow either.  I just don't believe the offense is going to collapse because Diggs has gone.  

 

I think/hope the 2024 edition of Joe Brady will be somewhat better than the 2023 version of the Dorsey/Brady show.  Let's say Diggs' departure makes our receiving corps 5-10% worse.  I think a new & improved Brady (with an entire offseason to implement his concepts) gets us that 5-10%.  

 

When Josh Allen is your QB, your offense won't be bad unless your OC is incompetent.  

 

And McD has a talent for making lemons with lemonade on defense.  I don't think our D will be elite, there's not enough talent, but it will be fundamentally sound. 

 

And I think that gets us into the playoffs where anything can happen.  

 

That's what I think will happen.  But my two biggest uncertainties are: (1) Joe Brady and (2)  the wideouts.  Both could turn out better - or worse - than I expect.  We'll see.  

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

Kind if like how the fact that Shakir was a 5th rounder is causing people to hedge? 

 

 

Yeah there is definitely truth to that, IMO.   His T-Rex arms were never going to allow him to be a first round pick even if he ran like Worthy did.   If he becomes a superstar WR he will be a one-of-one with arms that short.   Literally, not figuratively.   In that scenario, it's reasonable to not believe it til you see it.

[NeverOutNick]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You know I loved the Keon Coleman pick Alpha. But recent reports have not been quite as optimistic as this. He struggled separating in the endzone against Chicago and reportedly struggled separating against Pittsburgh in the joint practice too. I'm not backing down on my initial feelings about him as a prospect, not even close, but we have to be realistic about the expectations in his rookie year. His game needs a lot of refinement. I knew that even when I was the loudest voice in the room advocating to draft him. His physical skills and work ethic make me confident he will get there eventually. As far as this year though I can't see him immediately performing like a true WR1. Those are big shoes to fill for a raw young rookie.

 

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for Metcalf or Hopkins at the trade deadline.

I would love Hopkins at the trade deadline. Heck give him to us now. He’s relatively cheap and the guy we should’ve gotten last year and maybe we beat the chiefs in that game 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I would love Hopkins at the trade deadline. Heck give him to us now. He’s relatively cheap and the guy we should’ve gotten last year and maybe we beat the chiefs in that game 

Yeah and Hopkins isn't hindsight either btw

 

He was available and we passed, would have made a legit difference

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Good QBs can't elevate just anybody.   And they won't elevate everyone - there aren't enough targets to go around.

But Josh has thrown for over 4,000  yards for the past four consecutive years, despite a revolving door of receivers. 

 

Mahomes has thrown for over 4,000 yards six consecutive seasons despite his own revolving door of receivers including the loss of Tyreek Hill.

 

In his prime, Brees had 12 consecutive years of 4k with a bunch of different receivers coming and going.

 

If Josh gets 4k again this year, and I think he will, someone has to catch those balls.  Between Samuel, Kincaid, and Shakir - at least one of those is going to have a career year and maybe more than one.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why would you think 4K is meaningfully good for one of the top 2 QB's in the NFL?

Mahomes has averaged 296 yards passing per game over his career..........that's an average of over 5,000 yards in a 17 game season.

 

That's an objective worth talking about.  

 

Mahomes' 261 yards passing per game last year was well down from that........but still more than Josh Allen..........even though some people here act like the Chiefs passing game was a complete sh!t show and the Bills just need to get "quietly" better.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

What is really funny is that you think it’s somehow never happened in NFL history that some WR groups have some rookies or new FAs or 3rd year players or new OCs. 
 

Just can’t evaluate any team’s WR groups until they are all 8 year vets and been with the same coach and the same QB and the same team. Who knew Mike Evans would be a good WR? It was impossible to tell when Tom Brady got there. Had to see it to believe it.  Worthless to discuss their talent on paper. Unless you believe they are worse than the Bills on paper. Then it makes sense.

 

What are you talking about.  lol...

 

You still didn't answer my direct question.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

You know I loved the Keon Coleman pick Alpha. But recent reports have not been quite as optimistic as this. He struggled separating in the endzone against Chicago and reportedly struggled separating against Pittsburgh in the joint practice too. I'm not backing down on my initial feelings about him as a prospect, not even close, but we have to be realistic about the expectations in his rookie year. His game needs a lot of refinement. I knew that even when I was the loudest voice in the room advocating to draft him. His physical skills and work ethic make me confident he will get there eventually. As far as this year though I can't see him immediately performing like a true WR1. Those are big shoes to fill for a raw young rookie.

 

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for Metcalf or Hopkins at the trade deadline.

 

I know you do and are, and hey, he is a rookie, there will be moments other get the best of him and things he needs to work on.  

 

But counter point to this:  One, the reports you are mentioning are far fewer than the ones where he has been excelling.  You can't expect the rookie to be perfect on every play and every route, including against one of the best corners in the league in Chicago game.  

 

Second, those reports are not as pessimistic as they seemed either.  Lets go through both:

• Chicago game - I watched the All-22 film on this game, he had a strong game overall.  He ran 3 routes - and he ran a lot of clear outs where he did a great job selling the route and pulling the coverage successfully.  
  • First target was excellent, his hinge route was perfectly executed and gained 5 yards of separation and allowed for the easy catch and turn up field for a first down.
  • Second target - His only real bad rep of the game, he wasn't able to fight through the contact and make a clean cut.  He did however have positives on this play where he bailed out Mitch who foolishly still forced the ball to him and then compounded that with a horrific pass.  Coleman had the heads up to make a good defensive play on the ball to save the turnover.  How many times have we watched Davis just allow a turnover on plays like this...was good play and awareness by the kid even though he didn't run the route he wanted.  
  • Third target - The only reason this wasn't PI was because Mitch threw such a bad pass.  Keon gets position on the DB and turns inside, just like the route is designed to do.  The DB has one hand on Keons chest and tugs on the jersey with his other hand on the cut.  Keon still gets position on him to where if Allen was the QB and throws a good ball its an easy TD or easy PI flag because the defender then came over the back of Keon holding him down from jumping to get to Mitchs bad pass when the ball was still 2 yards from reaching Keon.  Keon was good on this route, the DB escaped a flag or a TD because Mitch threw an awful ball.  
• Pittsburgh practice
  • There was one report that came out that said he didn't get separation on his first 2 routes...then the same tweet was updated that on the very next play Keon torched the DB for a TD.  
  • Too much is being made of the fact on the first 2 routes he didn't win the routes.  He adjusted and then burned them for a TD.  

I am not saying the kid is a lock...but the facts are that the vast majority of reports coming out have not only been positive, but very positive.  He isn't going to win 100% of the time, nobody does.  But what you want to see is a lot more positive coming out than negative, and that is certainly true on Keon thus far.  And when the games get real come week 1, I am sure there will be even more ups and downs like most rookies experience adjusting to playing real NFL games.  

 

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

One, the reports you are mentioning are far fewer than the ones where he has been excelling.  You can't expect the rookie to be perfect on every play and every route, including against one of the best corners in the league in Chicago game.  

 

I think he needs to develop his ability to have a plan when the CB wins on the initial release. He is never going to be Stefon Diggs as a route runner which is fine but that means he needs to have a plan to win against tight coverage. That is a nuanced skill that takes time and live reps and a lot of coaching. It isn't going to happen overnight. Until he can do that with some level of consistency he isn't going to be a true WR1.

 

My concern is that based on the players behind him he is going to be forced into the primary X role before he's really ready. In a vacuum I don't mind so much because I'm a believer in live reps being the fastest track to development, but when we're talking about spending a whole year of Allen's prime under those conditions it feels like a waste. Ideally we would have a true X WR on the roster and Coleman could be used as mainly a red zone weapon with some sprinkled in manufactured touches in between the 20s while he figures out the rest, but the Bills have made it so that we don't have the luxury. He pretty much has to be our primary outside WR from day one, or at the very least split that role with an even less exciting option in Mack Hollins, and I just can't believe he's ready for that kind of workload from the hardest position in the formation until I see it in live games.

[BillsFanForever19]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Cole Bishop is not only who I thought we would take in the 2nd, but also who I felt was someone we should take.  

 

He really wasn't on my radar at all at 60. I guess I was too focused on the top Safety available first and then prospects who our new DB coach had history coaching. My thought process was if they were going to take a Safety in Round 2, it would be Tyler Nubin in the outside chance he fell that far. If not, and more likely, it would be Javon Bullard. I thought Bullard would be there for sure and I was all in on him. When neither were there and they took Bishop, I was surprised.

 

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The Carter pick is the one pick for me that is up for debate (outside the obvious debate if Keon or a different WR should have been our first pick).  

 

That's funny because to me, that was the most obvious pick. Going into the Draft, I had said time and again that the 1st pick was going to be a WR and then we were going to go Safety and Defensive Tackle in some combination over our next two picks. There was such a massive run on DT's by the time we got to 60, that DeWayne Carter was the top 3T on my board even when we were picking then. 

 

I remember thinking "this is a little high for Carter, but there's no way he's going to last until our next pick so we might have to take him here". When he was still on the board at the bottom of Round 3, it was a no brainer to me. I knew he'd be the choice. And honestly, compared to where he went compared to some of the guys who went between 33 and 60, it felt like very good value to me.

 

46 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

• Pittsburgh practice
  • There was one report that came out that said he didn't get separation on his first 2 routes...then the same tweet was updated that on the very next play Keon torched the DB for a TD.  
  • Too much is being made of the fact on the first 2 routes he didn't win the routes.  He adjusted and then burned them for a TD.  

 

I remember reading the tweet and thinking "the overall point of this is that he was able to overcome it and find success - but all anyone is going to focus on is the first part".

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What are you talking about.  lol...

 

You still didn't answer my direct question.

I gave you your answer.

 

you have been asked 100 times how good this group is on paper and you refuse to answer (because you know that it’s bad). 
 

You ask me to play a game you’re too afraid to play? Laughable. 

[Alphadawg7]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I gave you your answer.

 

you have been asked 100 times how good this group is on paper and you refuse to answer (because you know that it’s bad). 
 

You ask me to play a game you’re too afraid to play? Laughable. 

 

Lol...I have never refused to answer any question and have answered that question already many times.  

 

I am not asking you to play a game.  YOU responded to ME.  

 

So again...which WR group do you think is better...the 2023 top 4 guys of Rice, Toney, MVS, Watson...or the 2024 group of Shakir, Samuel, Keon, and Hollins?  Which do you think is better and which would you want to see on the field this year for the Bills?  

 

 

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lol...I have never refused to answer any question and have answered that question already many times.  

 

I am not asking you to play a game.  YOU responded to ME.  

 

So again...which WR group do you think is better...the 2023 top 4 guys of Rice, Toney, MVS, Watson...or the 2024 group of Shakir, Samuel, Keon, and Hollins?  Which do you think is better and which would you want to see on the field this year for the Bills?  

 

 

The Bills. But it’s close tbh. 

[Meatloaf63]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Diggs underperformed in the second half but wasn't "objectively bad".    Was Kincaid "objectively bad" under Brady because he produced less than Diggs?   Because that's the case.   And you are predicting Kelce results for Kincaid........which are the greatest ever for a split TE.    Just getting a little hyperbolic, I'd say.    

No, he was bad. The drops, taking himself out of games fumbling the ball. Dude didn’t care and it showed. KC laughed when people said they were double covering him, there was no need for that. 

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

No, he was bad. The drops, taking himself out of games fumbling the ball. Dude didn’t care and it showed. KC laughed when people said they were double covering him, there was no need for that. 

 

 

So every receiver who isn't drawing double teams is playing badly?   Man, this "in aggregate" formula to success is complicated.   I think @JerseyBills might be running a ponzi scheme here.

 

 

[Avisan]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

So every receiver who isn't drawing double teams is playing badly?   Man, this "in aggregate" formula to success is complicated.   I think @JerseyBills might be running a ponzi scheme here.

 

 

5.43 yards per target on 58 targets in the last 7 games of the season.  He was bad, fam.

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Why would you think 4K is meaningfully good for one of the top 2 QB's in the NFL?

Mahomes has averaged 296 yards passing per game over his career..........that's an average of over 5,000 yards in a 17 game season.

 

That's an objective worth talking about.  

 

Mahomes' 261 yards passing per game last year was well down from that........but still more than Josh Allen..........even though some people here act like the Chiefs passing game was a complete sh!t show and the Bills just need to get "quietly" better.

 

4,000 is just a convenient benchmark, nothing more.

 

But help me out here...   I come to OBD to learn, explore ideas, celebrate, and sometimes commiserate with my brothers and sisters in the Bills mafia.   You seem to have another agenda.  Maybe I'm getting this wrong but it seems you like to 'prove' that you are 'right' and/or your arguments demonstrate more intellectual rigor.   When I (or someone else) disagrees, your stubbornness in hammering your point home and dogged efforts to poke holes in the arguments of others is impressive in a way.  

 

In any case, I still don't believe the sky fell when Diggs was traded.  Our WR situation is far from ideal, but if Brady is a capable OC (and I hope he is though I'm not convinced yet), he'll find ways to make this offense go.  Maybe not at SB level which is the goal and dream, but at least at the playoff level.  

 

A bunch of smart jurors sitting in the same courtroom seeing the same evidence often come to different conclusions.  Sorry if you disagree with me.  Ultimately, it doesn't matter because neither of us will impact what actually happens on the field.

 

 

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

You know I loved the Keon Coleman pick Alpha. But recent reports have not been quite as optimistic as this. He struggled separating in the endzone against Chicago and reportedly struggled separating against Pittsburgh in the joint practice too. I'm not backing down on my initial feelings about him as a prospect, not even close, but we have to be realistic about the expectations in his rookie year. His game needs a lot of refinement. I knew that even when I was the loudest voice in the room advocating to draft him. His physical skills and work ethic make me confident he will get there eventually. As far as this year though I can't see him immediately performing like a true WR1. Those are big shoes to fill for a raw young rookie.

 

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for Metcalf or Hopkins at the trade deadline.

He also has this weird habit of drifting toward contact to orient himself on the field, which strikes me as a basketball-derived trait.  He’s a power forward at receiver.  If he puts it all together - watch out.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think he needs to develop his ability to have a plan when the CB wins on the initial release. He is never going to be Stefon Diggs as a route runner which is fine but that means he needs to have a plan to win against tight coverage. That is a nuanced skill that takes time and live reps and a lot of coaching. It isn't going to happen overnight. Until he can do that with some level of consistency he isn't going to be a true WR1.

 

My concern is that based on the players behind him he is going to be forced into the primary X role before he's really ready. In a vacuum I don't mind so much because I'm a believer in live reps being the fastest track to development, but when we're talking about spending a whole year of Allen's prime under those conditions it feels like a waste. Ideally we would have a true X WR on the roster and Coleman could be used as mainly a red zone weapon with some sprinkled in manufactured touches in between the 20s while he figures out the rest, but the Bills have made it so that we don't have the luxury. He pretty much has to be our primary outside WR from day one, or at the very least split that role with an even less exciting option in Mack Hollins, and I just can't believe he's ready for that kind of workload from the hardest position in the formation until I see it in live games.

 

I don't disagree with you on the bolded...but I think its fair to say this is also true for all rookie WR's coming into the league where winning a route isn't going to be the same as winning a route in College.  Granted, for some this may be an easier transition and some may take more time...but none the less, that is just part of being a rookie.  I agree he is never going to be Stefon Diggs as a route runner, but that is because not only is Diggs amongst the best of his era, they are also completely different players.  Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams...these guys don't win routes the same way Diggs does either, different style of players. 

 

I agree, its not reasonable to expect Keon, or any rookie for that matter, to learn the nuanced skills to consistently get open over night.  And the good news is we don't have to lean on him early.  As good as Keon's camp has been, Kincaid and Shakirs has been even better with reports consistently coming out that they catch everything and are always open.  Samuel as well has nothing but positive buzz coming out.  The philosophy of this offense, especially early in the season, is that they won't need to lean heavy on any one person and will spread the targets out.  That will take pressure of Keon having to be "the guy" so to speak early.  

 

And look at someone like Rashee Rice...he didn't come out the gate as the WR1...he was averaging only 34 yards a game through 5 games before his role started to increase to where he finished as the WR1 by seasons end.  

 

I will say this about Keon...I said it leading up to the draft and I have said since we drafted him.  I feel like Keon is one of the most ready to play of all the WR's taken this year both mentally and physically.  Some are gonna disagree with that, which is fine, but based on what I saw at both his stops in college, how he prepares for the game, his awareness on the field, his basketball background lending to his body control, and his excellent athleticism...I honestly feel like you would be hard pressed to find another WR we could have taken who is more ready to play at Keons spot than Keon.  And the coaches and Allen have been echoing the same thing all camp.  

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

4,000 is just an convenient achievably low benchmark, nothing more.

 

But help me out here...   I come to OBD to learn, explore ideas, celebrate, and sometimes commiserate with my brothers and sisters in the Bills mafia.   You seem to have another agenda. 

 

 

 

FIFY

 

My "agenda" here is to talk Bills football and be entertained.   It's all entertainment.   But that doesn't mean we have to be intellectually dishonest about the product that's put on the field.  

 

You aren't ever going to come here and find nothing but "like minds" that you seek.   Everyone's experience and what they expect from the product are not going to be the same.   So getting your nose bent during a nuanced discussion about a specific topic.......to the point where you are asking about agenda's.....that is showing how thin your skin is.

 

So I guess I can then ask:   What's your agenda as a fan?   How much do you invest in this team?   If it's less than me are you less of a fan?  Or don't our differences matter then?😉