I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Billl]

I like Kincaid as a player, but it seemed like most of his catches were dump offs where he leaked out to the flats.  He had 29 first downs on 73 receptions, less than 40% with 2 TDs.  That’s more of a “reliable option” than a “weapon” in the passing game.  That doesn’t mean he can’t become a true weapon, but it’s not at all how he was used last year.  He had a 51 yard catch against New England in week 17 last year.  He averaged 8.6 yards per reception on his other 72 catches for the season.

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

 

Josh did elevate Jon Brown and Cole Beasley to career heights. But they both had more production and talent than the three you mention. I think Curtis Samuel is about as productive as Beasley was prior to coming to the Bills, maybe even more so with worse QB play. I could see him having similar numbers to Beasley's best season.

 

I agree that the Bills are missing a true #1 wr, and think that Kincaid can perform at the level of the 1B. Your points on Keon Coleman's development window make sense, he may be that true 1 but not for several seasons. 

 

So this year is probably a step back. 

 

With the cap saving that Became has carved out, a top tier we should be the target FA next off season...

 

Just for the sake of it, here's the productivity of the Bills top 4 in 2020 (Allen's best passing season):

 

277 receptions, 3560 yards, 22 TD's

 

Where's the bar on the Bills top 4 this year to legitimately be in contention to win the Super Bowl?

 

 

So Beasley and Brown were mediocre before they joined the Bills?   Incorrect.   If you missed the "Allen can elevate mediocre WR's into good one's" then you've missed the discussion point altogether. 

 

Brown had been a 1,000 yard receiver before Allen and Beasley had been a consistent producer.    Both were signed to free agent contracts that indicated that they were already good.   They topped their career bests(once) with Allen by like 60 yards and 130 yards as I recall.    

[theAteam]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

I like Kincaid as a player, but it seemed like most of his catches were dump offs where he leaked out to the flats.  He had 29 first downs on 73 receptions, less than 40% with 2 TDs.  That’s more of a “reliable option” than a “weapon” in the passing game.  That doesn’t mean he can’t become a true weapon, but it’s not at all how he was used last year.  He had a 51 yard catch against New England in week 17 last year.  He averaged 8.6 yards per reception on his other 72 catches for the season.

 

 

 

It will be definitely be interesting to see how Brady will use him in his own scheme and how Kincaid has developed over an offseason.

[C.Biscuit97]

52 minutes ago, SCBills said:

It sounds like that’s what Kincaid will be.

 

We’ve never had a Kelce-like player so we can’t truly wrap our heads around how that works until we see it. 
 

Im not really worried about our WR’s.. we won games while having (names aside) one of the worst WR rooms in the NFL last half of the season.  Diggs & Davis were objectively bad.

 

My biggest concern is health.. Shakir & Samuel seem VERY important that we want to do & lack of vertical threats to open up underneath stuff … maybe we do have vertical threats, but in the traditional sense - outside MVS - that true deep threat player isn’t on this roster. 

I absolutely love Kincaid. One of my favorite bills draft picks in a long time. I think he will have a monster year. 
 

what worries me is we have no real speed. Samuel has a fast 40 but doesn’t play like that. If you thought Gabe Davis was frustrating, just watch MVS. We have the qb with strongest arm but big passes have been missing from our offense. It would open up so many things. 

[Avisan]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If you stretch the truth in both directions it makes the story seem bigger than it is.      

????

 

Diggs averaged 5.43 yards per target under Brady, it was bad, dude.  He was targeted on average over 8 times per game and simply didn't do much with those targets.

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Is that how you’re reading that? Huh, I’m reading it as, “their production was fine for a 3rd or 4th option but will not cut it as lead options. They are going to have to take a step forward.” 
 

 

Its not what he said.  First he claimed that the "narrative" is that Shakir and Kincaid were the "top 2" options last year with Brady.  Literally no one has said that.  No one thinks they were the focal point of the final 10 games last year.  So that was the first thing that was wrong.  Second, he said they were not really that good as the "top 2" options (which they were NOT the top 2 options) and projected their stats out over 17 games saying that what they did LAST year as the TOP TWO options over a 17 game season is NOT good enough.  That is a totally false narrative and false projection.  

 

The reality is that they were the 5th and 3rd options...and in THOSE roles, Shakir led the team in receiving yards the final 10 games despite getting less than half the targets the actual top option got, led all WR's in the NFL in catch %, and had an incredible YPT while Kincaid put up the 4th most receptions and 10th most yards for a rookie TE in NFL history.  

 

The facts are, for the 5th and 3rd options...one being a 2nd year player just finally getting on the field after the idiot OC was fired and the other being a rookie...did QUITE WELL in their REAL roles last year.  To manipulate the data to pretend they were the top 2 options to devalue their production last year is disengenuous and all about pushing a bias.  

 

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Obviously the gross numbers will increase for both as volume increases. It’s also beyond reasonable to expect Shakir’s efficiency to drop with that increase in volume. The question is where does the volume/efficiency land? 

The numbers will increase because their roles will increase this year as they will likely be 2 of the primary targets this season and good chance to finish as the 2 most targeted players.  And definitely efficiency has a strong chance to decrease some as volume increases, but that is true for every player in the NFL.    

 

If Shakir and Kincaid as PRIMARY options this year have around the same production as they had last year when they were NOT the focal points of the offense...then obviously everyone knows that isn't good enough.  But that isn't what he said, he incorrectly claimed they already underwhelmed last year as lead options when they were never the lead options.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

56 minutes ago, SCBills said:

It sounds like that’s what Kincaid will be.

 

We’ve never had a Kelce-like player so we can’t truly wrap our heads around how that works until we see it. 
 

Im not really worried about our WR’s.. we won games while having (names aside) one of the worst WR rooms in the NFL last half of the season.  Diggs & Davis were objectively bad.

 

My biggest concern is health.. Shakir & Samuel seem VERY important that we want to do & lack of vertical threats to open up underneath stuff … maybe we do have vertical threats, but in the traditional sense - outside MVS - that true deep threat player isn’t on this roster. 

Define a “Kelce-like player.” The greatest TE of all-time?

[Prospector]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I absolutely love Kincaid. One of my favorite bills draft picks in a long time. I think he will have a monster year. 
 

what worries me is we have no real speed. Samuel has a fast 40 but doesn’t play like that. If you thought Gabe Davis was frustrating, just watch MVS. We have the qb with strongest arm but big passes have been missing from our offense. It would open up so many things. 

I would love to try and make a trade for Hyatt from the Giants

[SCBills]

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I expect big things from Kincaid.   But there has only been one Kelce.   Not having a player who commands the coverage of CB1's like Sauce, Ramsey and Gonzalez in division allows those teams to be creative with where they put those guys.   We saw a "great" split TE in Jimmy Graham be reduced to ineffective when he went to Seattle and defense's put a CB on him instead of him being able to roam against LB and S.  

 

Matchups are very important.

 

Kincaid and Shakir may have been more "open" than Diggs.........but they weren't getting blanketed by a CB1 or even a CB2.   And being that Kincaid and Shakir will be making most of their grabs in the same area of the field.......not having a difference maker on the boundary creates a matchup problem.   

Valid.  
 

I think Brady’s Offense will also rely on more passes to the backs, but again.. at some point, everything can’t be within 10 yard of the LOS. 

 

Kincaid, Shakir and Coleman will all push to the intermediate range, which is Allen’s bread and butter, but who’s taking the top off?

 

Modern NFL defense has dramatically limited the number of deep shots per game, and even more so, the number of deep shots connected.   But you still need that threat. 
 

And I’d agree .. I don’t know what the plan is there.   1-4 our guys “can” do it, but it’s not necessarily their game.  MVS is built to do it, but has other issues and who knows if he’s even making this team.  
 

Clearly Brady is aware of this, but even with motion and a running game, if all works to plan, defenses will bring their Safeties down if they aren’t afraid we can beat them deep. 

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

So Beasley and Brown were mediocre before they joined the Bills?   Incorrect.   If you missed the "Allen can elevate mediocre WR's into good one's" then you've missed the discussion point altogether. 

 

Brown had been a 1,000 yard receiver before Allen and Beasley had been a consistent producer.    Both were signed to free agent contracts that indicated that they were already good.   They topped their career bests(once) with Allen by like 60 yards and 130 yards as I recall.    

To support this point, both Beasley and Brown signed to comparable money to Curtis Samuel under the WR market and cap constraints 5 years ago.

 

if the argument is that Allen can elevate Samuel, I tend to agree (he’s gonna have to as he’s de facto WR1)

 

This whole argument has gotten tiresome. It’s clear to me that the plan was Diggs as WR1 + Samuel/Coleman replacing Davis + Shakir + Kincaid as the target group. Which honestly, wouldn’t have been a terrible plan for the group but it blew up in their face when they decided Diggs had negative value here off the field in 2024. 
 

So here we are. They took a talent downgrade to ship Diggs out of town. And that’s honestly fine, if he was a cancer and they have plans to rebuild up the room by 2025. But it’s a short term downgrade and that happens.

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

21 minutes ago, Billl said:

I like Kincaid as a player, but it seemed like most of his catches were dump offs where he leaked out to the flats.  He had 29 first downs on 73 receptions, less than 40% with 2 TDs.  That’s more of a “reliable option” than a “weapon” in the passing game.  That doesn’t mean he can’t become a true weapon, but it’s not at all how he was used last year.  He had a 51 yard catch against New England in week 17 last year.  He averaged 8.6 yards per reception on his other 72 catches for the season.

 

 

 

This is exactly how I felt watching him last year. I don't see him as a game changer at all,  in fact I see someone like Shakir as more of a game changer than him.  

 

I hope he proves me wrong this year, but I just don't see a top end type of tight end like kelce or gronk were.  Really more of a serviceable/ above average tight end that will play his heart out and won't make many mistakes at all. Still definitely a valuable asset to have on your team, just not someone id expect to take over a game. 

Edited August 16 by TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Define a “Kelce-like player.” The greatest TE of all-time?

A Tight End that can be the focal point of the Offense. 
 

I view Kincaid as far more fluid and athletic than say, Andrews.. and a different player than Kittle, with spatial recognition that I’ve only ever really seen from Kelce.  Thats an instinctive talent that can’t really be taught. 
 

It’s foolish to say he is prime Kelce without any proof.. but stylistically, he’s the best comp I have off the top of my head in regards to focal point TE’s. 

[MikePJ76]

5 minutes ago, Prospector said:

I would love to try and make a trade for Hyatt from the Giants

He is not available but Slayton maybe and he could bring a real speed outside threat here.

 

If he could be had for a 5th as some have speculated I would do that in a second.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Its not what he said.  First he claimed that the "narrative" is that Shakir and Kincaid were the "top 2" options last year with Brady.  Literally no one has said that.  No one thinks they were the focal point of the final 10 games last year.  So that was the first thing that was wrong.  Second, he said they were not really that good as the "top 2" options (which they were NOT the top 2 options) and projected their stats out over 17 games saying that what they did LAST year as the TOP TWO options over a 17 game season is NOT good enough.  That is a totally false narrative and false projection.  

 

The reality is that they were the 5th and 3rd options...and in THOSE roles, Shakir led the team in receiving yards the final 10 games despite getting less than half the targets the actual top option got, led all WR's in the NFL in catch %, and had an incredible YPT while Kincaid put up the 4th most receptions and 10th most yards for a rookie TE in NFL history.  

 

The facts are, for the 5th and 3rd options...one being a 2nd year player just finally getting on the field after the idiot OC was fired and the other being a rookie...did QUITE WELL in their REAL roles last year.  To manipulate the data to pretend they were the top 2 options to devalue their production last year is disengenuous and all about pushing a bias.  

 

The numbers will increase because their roles will increase this year as they will likely be 2 of the primary targets this season and good chance to finish as the 2 most targeted players.  And definitely efficiency has a strong chance to decrease some as volume increases, but that is true for every player in the NFL.    

 

If Shakir and Kincaid as PRIMARY options this year have around the same production as they had last year when they were NOT the focal points of the offense...then obviously everyone knows that isn't good enough.  But that isn't what he said, he incorrectly claimed they already underwhelmed last year as lead options when they were never the lead options.

 

 

 

You don't even know what you are arguing about and never did.   You hadn't followed the discussion.......took it way out of context and now are just unwilling to admit it.

 

I countered the "idea" by posters who I've already cited that Kincaid and Shakir were the best receivers on the team at the end of last season with the dose of reality that.......regardless of your opinion on their rank.......their production wasn't really all that good.

 

If you want to grade them on a curve then you need to take other things into account.

 

Now contrast THAT, with Rashee Rice for the Chiefs.   His numbers WERE big time.   They do project out to WR1 numbers.   No curve needed.

 

This idea that it's "problem solved" for the Bills because they have their "top 2 receivers" back is a stretch.

[Mikey152]

15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I absolutely love Kincaid. One of my favorite bills draft picks in a long time. I think he will have a monster year. 
 

what worries me is we have no real speed. Samuel has a fast 40 but doesn’t play like that. If you thought Gabe Davis was frustrating, just watch MVS. We have the qb with strongest arm but big passes have been missing from our offense. It would open up so many things. 

What?  Samuel doesn't play like he is fast????

[SCBills]

Just now, Mikey152 said:

What?  Samuel doesn't play like he is fast????

Im guessing the poster means Samuel isn’t an outside/take the top off WR

 

Which maybe he can do, but to date, he’s not that type of player 

 

Just like Shakir can, Coleman can, Hollins can, but none are known for that. 
 

Entering last season Diggs & Davis were both deep threats, although Davis is a unique kind of deep threat and Diggs lost a step or just stopped caring.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You don't even know what you are arguing about and never did.   You hadn't followed the discussion.......took it way out of context and now are just unwilling to admit it.

 

I countered the "idea" by posters who I've already cited that Kincaid and Shakir were the best receivers on the team at the end of last season with the dose of reality that.......regardless of your opinion on their rank.......their production wasn't really all that good.

 

If you want to grade them on a curve then you need to take other things into account.

 

Now contrast THAT, with Rashee Rice for the Chiefs.   His numbers WERE big time.   They do project out to WR1 numbers.   No curve needed.

 

This idea that it's "problem solved" for the Bills because they have their "top 2 receivers" back is a stretch.

 

I have followed what you said, and you were wrong about the narrative as literally no one has claimed they were the top 2 guys, and even the guy you were talking to had to spell that out for you.

 

Oh come on...you can't be seriously bringing up Rashee Rice now who was LITERALLY the #1 WR for the Chiefs last year and was 2nd to only Kelce in targets.  He had 102 targets to Shakirs 45, that is more than DOUBLE.  Yet Shakir had a better catch %, more YPT, more YPC as the FIFTH option...on the same amount of targets Shakir would have projected out to over 1200 yards compared to Rashees 938.  LMAO  

 

I am not taking anything out of context, you falsified a narrative, made incorrect statements about projections off it and now you want to keep trying to sell it...and all for the purpose of diminishing what they did so you can sell your bias further.  

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

I wonder how many fans have strained their backs, necks and knees contorting themselves to truly believe AT THIS POINT that this is a top flight receiver corps … 101 pages 😂

Edited August 16 by AlCowlingsTaxiService

[BADOLBILZ]

29 minutes ago, Billl said:

I like Kincaid as a player, but it seemed like most of his catches were dump offs where he leaked out to the flats.  He had 29 first downs on 73 receptions, less than 40% with 2 TDs.  That’s more of a “reliable option” than a “weapon” in the passing game.  That doesn’t mean he can’t become a true weapon, but it’s not at all how he was used last year.  He had a 51 yard catch against New England in week 17 last year.  He averaged 8.6 yards per reception on his other 72 catches for the season.

 

 

 

 

 

Unfortunately, true.   We hope there is a lot more production there.   There might be.  He's talented.  But if he were a 5th rounder and had done that last year we wouldn't be predicting that he's the next Kelce.   His first round pedigree is coloring a lot of the takes.  There are lots of good TE's.........but the average fan is oblivious to most of them.   If all he becomes is a good TE that's fine.   You don't pick any receiving target at the end of round 1 nowadays and expect them to become a first team All Pro just because.    

[Einstein's Dog]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

This whole argument has gotten tiresome. It’s clear to me that the plan was Diggs as WR1 + Samuel/Coleman replacing Davis + Shakir + Kincaid as the target group. Which honestly, wouldn’t have been a terrible plan for the group but it blew up in their face when they decided Diggs had negative value here off the field in 2024. 
 

So here we are. They took a talent downgrade to ship Diggs out of town. And that’s honestly fine, if he was a cancer and they have plans to rebuild up the room by 2025. But it’s a short term downgrade and that happens.

Why is that fine?  A talent downgrade in the middle of Josh's prime?  That's outrageous.  When they shipped Diggs out, a lot of people (myself included) thought Beane had a plan, and what we have now does not look like the result of a good plan (any plan?).

 

Most thought it was going to be a slight rebuild (I personally wasn't even on board with that at that point, I was thinking they were planning the big trade after Tre money).  But a rebuild plan that has limited WR investment?  What a terrible idea.