I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Kirby Jackson]

23 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

 

I didn't ask you to dig up WR data.  That said, your data makes sense, I have no issue with it and I don't question it.  Where I think your argument is falling short is where you say "The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to defense."  Based on the last 2 drafts and last 2 free agent classes, that's simply not true.  Perhaps they allocated too many resources to defense earlier in Allen's career, realized that it wasn't working, and have shifted their approach to resource allocation.  Their highest selection in the last 2 drafts were for pass catchers (a WR and TE), their 2nd round pick in 23 was for a guard and their biggest (in terms of dollars spent) Free Agent acquisitions (from other teams) in the last 2 seasons were on offensive players (Samuel, a WR this season and McGovern, a G/C last season).

 

I should add that we've been talking about "best resources" so I'm only looking at the 1st and 2nd rounds and most expensive FA acquisitions.

 

So you can argue that over the course of time, averaging out the numbers, the Bills have allocated more resources to defense than offense.  I agree with that argument.  But they do not "continue to" do that.  Based on the last 2 offseasons, their biggest investments (allocations of "best resources") have been on the offensive side of the ball.

 

I think we can agree on this - we'd like to see these investments pay off, regardless of which side of the ball they are on.

Fair

 

Kincaid was a swing at an elite player. The rest of them are meant to be role players. I’m including Coleman here. The Bills DESEPERATELY needed a WR at the top of the depth chart. They traded down twice and picked the 8th WR in the draft. That doesn’t scream, “we think this guy is a difference maker.”

 

They’ve made medium FA moves in McGovern and Samuel because they let bigger investments in those areas go (Morse and Diggs). I’d argue that the commitment to surrounding Josh with elite players is actually going backwards despite them allocating some resources over the last couple of drafts. They still haven’t addressed the top of the WR depth chart.

[Einstein's Dog]

10 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

 

I didn't ask you to dig up WR data.  That said, your data makes sense, I have no issue with it and I don't question it.  Where I think your argument is falling short is where you say "The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to defense."  Based on the last 2 drafts and last 2 free agent classes, that's simply not true.  

 

So you can argue that over the course of time, averaging out the numbers, the Bills have allocated more resources to defense than offense.  I agree with that argument.  But they do not "continue to" do that.  Based on the last 2 offseasons, their biggest investments (allocations of "best resources") have been on the offensive side of the ball.

 

Lets not group last year with this year.  Up until this year it looked like they were moving towards better offense.  And it was showing- Kincaid/Shakir+Cook are exciting.

 

But this year, it looks like a major back-slide in offensive investment, especially in the WR room.

 

They got rid of a 1st round pick, $20M+ (Diggs) and replaced him with a second round $3M player (K Coleman). 

They got rid of G Davis a 5th round $13M player and replaced him with a $8M FA (Samuels).

They got rid of somewhat expensive depth WRs (Sherfield/Harty) and replaced them with bargain misfits MVS/Claypool.

 

[Mikey152]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

2:21 in the video I linked above.  He's clearly wide out to the right, and in fact he's the only WR on that side.  That's the first I looked at.  There are others.  

 

Not sure where you got the info, but it's inaccurate.  

 

 

I watched all the games, that is where. 

 

I also watched your video, and every other TD was from the slot or the backfield. Not 2/7 or whatever you said. He wasn't playing split end more than like 5 snaps all season. Even in the slot, he would often line up at RB first, then motion to the slot to force the defense to declare how they were covering him.

 

Listen, I don't know what to tell you, but Curtis Samuel was never a WR at OSU any more than James Cook was last year for us or CMac is for the niners.

Edited June 24 by Mikey152

[msw2112]

8 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Lets not group last year with this year.  Up until this year it looked like they were moving towards better offense.  And it was showing- Kincaid/Shakir+Cook are exciting.

 

But this year, it looks like a major back-slide in offensive investment, especially in the WR room.

 

They got rid of a 1st round pick, $20M+ (Diggs) and replaced him with a second round $3M player (K Coleman). 

They got rid of G Davis a 5th round $13M player and replaced him with a $8M FA (Samuels).

They got rid of somewhat expensive depth WRs (Sherfield/Harty) and replaced them with bargain misfits MVS/Claypool.

 

 

You're not wrong, but some other factors to consider about what they did this year and why:

• Diggs was a distraction that needed to be removed (and they got a 2nd round pick in the pick exchange)
• They have serious salary cap limitations
• Davis is likely highly overpaid at $13M (and I'm a Davis fan)
• MVS/Claypool are likely better WRs than Sherfield/Harty, for less money, so nothing to complain about, particularly when they signed Samuel to be the gadget-guy (jet sweeps, end arounds, etc.)
• Coleman is not the overall talent that Diggs is/was, but the team lacked a big WR who can make a play even when he's not open.  That seems to be Coleman's specialty.  So while he doesn't bring what Diggs did bring, he does bring something that Diggs did not.

Edited June 24 by msw2112

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Agreed. But some of the issues on offense last year, were on Josh.

 

I love Josh. He is phenomenal. But he didn't play close to his best in 2023. 

 

No doubt, but in the world of problem resolution in business or for efficiency,  you always go for the lowest hanging fruit that causes the greatest problems first and which will generate the greatest improvement first, eh.  

 

Without Allen McD would have been winless, or perhaps a single win (Balt), in the playoffs, and that only because Jackson chokes in the playoffs.  

 

No player plays perfectly, but Allen's playoff performances at least are greater on average than his regular season performances.  The same cannot be said for the aforementioned failures.  

 

In short, he's not on the short list of reasons why we haven't won a Lombardi.  

 

 

[klos63]

4 hours ago, Jimmy Harris 69 said:

They don’t have Josh Allen and he, old stick, makes ALL the difference. Just ask Cole Beasley and John Brown. Now if we had Rodgers or Tua as our quarterback, I’d expect tons of sneering and semi stifled laughter. One is a shadow, the other is Mr. October. Concerning the quality of our receivers, you are as wrong as wrong can be.  

Keep looking at things through Buffalo colored glasses.

Would you not take Miami or Jets WR over ours?

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

No doubt, but in the world of problem resolution in business or for efficiency,  you always go for the lowest hanging fruit that causes the greatest problems first and which will generate the greatest improvement first, eh.  

 

Without Allen McD would have been winless, or perhaps a single win (Balt), in the playoffs, and that only because Jackson chokes in the playoffs.  

 

No player plays perfectly, but Allen's playoff performances at least are greater on average than his regular season performances.  The same cannot be said for the aforementioned failures.  

 

In short, he's not on the short list of reasons why we haven't won a Lombardi.  

 

I am not arguing that. The majority of that is obvious. That is irrelevant to the point I was originally responding to you on which is "what if the receivers suddenly look better elsewhere?" The answer to that question wouldn't be "ah well McDermott's defense was holding Diggs and Davis back." Those miscommunications with Gabe and overthrown deep balls to Diggs that both happened a fair amount in 2023 will be relitigated is what will happen. Whether people here like that or not.

[msw2112]

31 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Fair

 

Kincaid was a swing at an elite player. The rest of them are meant to be role players. I’m including Coleman here. The Bills DESEPERATELY needed a WR at the top of the depth chart. They traded down twice and picked the 8th WR in the draft. That doesn’t scream, “we think this guy is a difference maker.”

 

They’ve made medium FA moves in McGovern and Samuel because they let bigger investments in those areas go (Morse and Diggs). I’d argue that the commitment to surrounding Josh with elite players is actually going backwards despite them allocating some resources over the last couple of drafts. They still haven’t addressed the top of the WR depth chart.

 

I don't disagree.  I don't think they wanted to give up assets to move up for one of the top WRs in the draft (which I agree with, given the cost) and they were more interested in a big, contested-catch WR (Coleman) than a small speedy one (Worthy).  They graded Coleman and a few others about the same, so after looking at the numbers, they decided to trade back to get more draft assets while still getting one of their guys.  I was hoping they'd double (or triple) dip on WRs in the draft, maybe taking a shot at Franklin or one of the other remaining guys, but I guess they figure that a low cost veteran like Claypool is more ready to contribute than a mid-round rookie.  I think that Claypool will surprise a lot of people this season, and here are the reasons:

 

• Playing with Josh Allen as his QB.  He was very productive with Big Ben in Pittsburgh who was on his last legs - nowhere close to where Allen is today.
• He has talent - size, speed, and draft pedigree.
• His career is on the line.  This is his last chance.  If he blows it this time, he's done.
• He's likely been humbled by the last couple of seasons and sees where things will go if he doesn't clean up his act.

Edited June 24 by msw2112

[PBF81]

20 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I watched all the games, that is where. 

 

I also watched your video, and every other TD was from the slot or the backfield. Not 2/7 or whatever you said. He wasn't playing split end more than like 5 snaps all season. Even in the slot, he would often line up at RB first, then motion to the slot to force the defense to declare how they were covering him.

 

Listen, I don't know what to tell you, but Curtis Samuel was never a WR at OSU any more than James Cook was last year for us or CMac is for the niners.

 

The point is that he played as a WR, slot or otherwise.  He didn't play starting in the backfield, even as a "slot" where he was typically a good five yards from the OL.  

 

Let's keep this in perspective.  He didn't come into the NFL raw without any knowledge of playing WR.  And in the NFL he's nothing more than a slot WR either.  If he plays split we may be in trouble.  

 

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not arguing that. The majority of that is obvious. That is irrelevant to the point I was originally responding to you on which is "what if the receivers suddenly look better elsewhere?" The answer to that question wouldn't be "ah well McDermott's defense was holding Diggs and Davis back." Those miscommunications with Gabe and overthrown deep balls to Diggs that both happened a fair amount in 2023 will be relitigated is what will happen. Whether people here like that or not.

 

Gotcha!

 

Fair points, but again, it's not the regular season holding us back.   Everyone that's being honest already knows that it's been McD's defense preventing us from advancing further in the playoffs.  Not Allen.  That is relevant to the point.   The sidebar as to none of the other players on the team having stepped up in the playoffs with any consistency whatsoever also belies coaching.  

 

It's a pretty safe bet that anyone here would take a 9-8 finish, slipping in as a wild-card, then going 4-0 in the playoffs to win a championship, even if among those 8 regular season losses were 0-6 in the division.  The Party in Buffalo would commence and many of us could die happy in that way.  LOL  

 

What is not acceptable is posting a #1, 2, or 4 defense that plays like a #25th ranked defense (or worse) in the playoffs, or no players on the team stepping up but one that does everything.  

 

Again, without Allen we get the floor mopped with us in the playoffs generally speaking and instead of 5-6 under McD in the playoffs we'd have been 0-5 or 1-5 because we likely never would have advanced once and McD isn't even here at this point.  

 

 

Edited June 24 by PBF81

[Rampant Buffalo]

1 hour ago, msw2112 said:

 

You're not wrong, but some other factors to consider about what they did this year and why:

• Diggs was a distraction that needed to be removed (and they got a 2nd round pick in the pick exchange)
• They have serious salary cap limitations
• Davis is likely highly overpaid at $13M (and I'm a Davis fan)
• MVS/Claypool are likely better WRs than Sherfield/Harty, for less money, so nothing to complain about, particularly when they signed Samuel to be the gadget-guy (jet sweeps, end arounds, etc.)
• Coleman is not the overall talent that Diggs is/was, but the team lacked a big WR who can make a play even when he's not open.  That seems to be Coleman's specialty.  So while he doesn't bring what Diggs did bring, he does bring something that Diggs did not.

 

Agreed. Not being open is, indeed, Coleman's specialty.

 

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

Agreed. Not being open is, indeed, Coleman's specialty.

 

LOL, but it really is.  

 

Also, the whole narrative of him being a great contested catch WR is also false.  Someone did a fantastic write-up about the metrics on that and he wasn't even close to being the best WR at the top of the Draft for that.  

 

He is great against talent that we'll never see in the NFL though.  I don't see that pick working out well at all, and frankly, since it's not even a yardage thing, it shouldn't take more than a season to know.  He's either got the size and can make contested catches at key times or he can't.  Doesn't have much to do with things that typically take time to develop, like reading Ds or juking DBs.  

 

 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They’ve made medium FA moves in McGovern and Samuel because they let bigger investments in those areas go (Morse and Diggs). I’d argue that the commitment to surrounding Josh with elite players is actually going backwards despite them allocating some resources over the last couple of drafts. They still haven’t addressed the top of the WR depth chart.

 

Yeah this is what gets missed in the discussion. Can't just look at additions without looking at losses. I would say the Bills did the absolute bare minimum at adding to the offense this year. On the OL they made zero substantial investments after cutting Morse so it is actually a net loss there. At WR they just did a straight 1:1 replacement for every player they lost. So no the Bills have not suddenly changed their philosophy. They are choosing to add just enough on offense to field a competent roster, but they are not really actively building around their best asset (Allen, obviously). Plugging holes is not the same as genuine investment.

[Rampant Buffalo]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL, but it really is.  

 

Also, the whole narrative of him being a great contested catch WR is also false.  Someone did a fantastic write-up about the metrics on that and he wasn't even close to being the best WR at the top of the Draft for that.  

 

He is great against talent that we'll never see in the NFL though.  I don't see that pick working out well at all, and frankly, since it's not even a yardage thing, it shouldn't take more than a season to know.  He's either got the size and can make contested catches at key times or he can't.  Doesn't have much to do with things that typically take time to develop, like reading Ds or juking DBs.  

 

 

 

If Coleman is the same guy in the NFL that he was in college, he's a bust. 

 

You look at a guy like Josh Allen. He's a significantly better player at the NFL level, than he'd been at Wyoming. Maybe Coleman will make a similar improvement at WR, that Josh Allen made at QB?

 

The thing is this. Even at Wyoming, there was stuff about Josh Allen which was elite. Elite physical traits. He'd make elite throws, throws that the average NFL QB has no business making. His Wonderlic score was significantly higher than any of the other first round QBs from his draft class. He wasn't a finished product by any means, but there was elite stuff there upon which you could build.

 

If you asked me to name one elite thing about Coleman, I don't know what it would be. I'm not saying Coleman can't improve. But, I am saying that the probability of him becoming good is significantly lower than might have been the case for some other prospects.

[PBF81]

34 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

If Coleman is the same guy in the NFL that he was in college, he's a bust. 

 

You look at a guy like Josh Allen. He's a significantly better player at the NFL level, than he'd been at Wyoming. Maybe Coleman will make a similar improvement at WR, that Josh Allen made at QB?

 

The thing is this. Even at Wyoming, there was stuff about Josh Allen which was elite. Elite physical traits. He'd make elite throws, throws that the average NFL QB has no business making. His Wonderlic score was significantly higher than any of the other first round QBs from his draft class. He wasn't a finished product by any means, but there was elite stuff there upon which you could build.

 

If you asked me to name one elite thing about Coleman, I don't know what it would be. I'm not saying Coleman can't improve. But, I am saying that the probability of him becoming good is significantly lower than might have been the case for some other prospects.

 

That's exactly right.  

 

Here's the thing, if you're a team taking a player like that, apart from differentiating how he played against talent that's likely to end up in the NFL vs. talent that's not, which is a big indicator, and which in his case was poorly, you also have to ask yourself whether his primary shortcomings are things that you can coach into him.  His are a lack of speed or acceleration, which is not something that you can coach into him.  So the ceiling is already low.  

 

 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

1st in value over avg

1st in CPOE

3rd in success rate

3rd in EPA/dropback

2nd in win% added

 

it was his best season to date

 

For anyone that cares about Reception Perception:

 

So that was my takeaway from the season too. He did a lot of the little things better than ever in his career. As far as just playing the position normally I thought it was his most consistent season, which shows up across the board in any analytics measurement that accounts for context.

 

But I also think he had some of the lowest lows of his career since 2019 which sticks out in people's minds and makes them forget how he looked on a play to play basis.

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

For anyone that cares about Reception Perception:

 

So that was my takeaway from the season too. He did a lot of the little things better than ever in his career. As far as just playing the position normally I thought it was his most consistent season, which shows up across the board in any analytics measurement that accounts for context.

 

But I also think he had some of the lowest lows of his career since 2019 which sticks out in people's minds and makes them forget how he looked on a play to play basis.

That's a very nice way of saying people don't understand what they're watching

[PBF81]

21 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

For anyone that cares about Reception Perception:

 

So that was my takeaway from the season too. He did a lot of the little things better than ever in his career. As far as just playing the position normally I thought it was his most consistent season, which shows up across the board in any analytics measurement that accounts for context.

 

But I also think he had some of the lowest lows of his career since 2019 which sticks out in people's minds and makes them forget how he looked on a play to play basis.

 

I'd be curious how that breaks out over the first 10 games v. the last 7.  aka pre/post Dorsey/Brady.  

 

The narrative is that he was better, generally speaking, under Brady.  But my analysis has not seen that.  

 

 

[McDeerInTheHeadlights]

4 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

On the other hand if that's the teams biggest need, think we're in pretty good shape then overall!

 

They are in no way closer to a championship team than they have been in the past 4-5 years but to each their own, I guess.

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I'd be curious how that breaks out over the first 10 games v. the last 7.  aka pre/post Dorsey/Brady.  

 

The narrative is that he was better, generally speaking, under Brady.  But my analysis has not seen that.