I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[3rdand12]

On 9/27/2024 at 12:27 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

I think Brady has become the star. He has been masterful through 3 weeks. Everything is working. Unfortunately, we probably don’t have him back next year but this has been awesome to watch. 

Kirby

What is going on over there ?

No sad takes please.

 We win the SB and we keep the Crew

Until otherwise notified !

 Never project sadness or failures.

Next thing you will say Kromer will be gone and Babich and that Al Holcomb guy etc.

 

GO BILLS I TOLD YOU

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, 3rdand12 said:

 do you see that you might be hung up on that still. it's a fair take for any of Us.

 

But yea 

 we dont know yet

 

I have mentioned a few times across threads perhaps .

Baltimore is a sincere test for Bills as a Whole Unit.

Go Bills

Maybe. I just don’t think a slot can be a number 1 normally. St. Brown is the rare exception. I think Shakir can be a rich man’s Beasley and that’s a very valuable NFL player. He might be a $20M a year guy soon. A great piece and a guy that can take over a game are different. I’m not sure that he can take over a game.

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It isn't just about the ball being thrown to the sideline, it's about WRs lining up outside and getting open. Tyreek Hill was lining up outside even on those deep middle throws. That is the part of our offense that hasn't had to be tested much yet. I will agree it is easier said than done for a defense to make our offense run through our outside WRs. None of the teams we've faced have forced the issue. Maybe we can just continue totally scheming around it.

Have we needed it yet ? NO we have not

 

but stay tuned

 

drops mic

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, 3rdand12 said:

Kirby

What is going on over there ?

No sad takes please.

 We win the SB and we keep the Crew

Until otherwise notified !

 Never project sadness or failures.

Next thing you will say Kromer will be gone and Babich and that Al Holcomb guy etc.

 

GO BILLS I TOLD YOU

Lol, stop!! I think Babich and Brady are elite candidates. This is our best staff IMO. The good news is that we may win a Super Bowl. If that happens we may get the bonus of keeping this group. 

GO BILLS!!

[3rdand12]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Maybe. I just don’t think a slot can be a number 1 normally. St. Brown is the rare exception. I think Shakir can be a rich man’s Beasley and that’s a very valuable NFL player. He might be a $20M a year guy soon. A great piece and a guy that can take over a game are different. I’m not sure that he can take over a game.

Maybe a 1A is no longer necessary? 

 edited for clarity   1A

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Lol, stop!! I think Babich and Brady are elite candidates. This is our best staff IMO. The good news is that we may win a Super Bowl. If that happens we may get the bonus of keeping this group. 

GO BILLS!!

Let Us pray now

 

go bills 

luv ya K J

Edited September 29 by 3rdand12

[3rdand12]

7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

This is like the Capulets and the Montagues.

woah dude

7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

This is like the Capulets and the Montagues.

woah dude

 a bit deep are we ?

😋

 

[Magox]

Buffalo’s wide receivers relatively speaking suck.

 

 

At least that’s what some on this board say
 

You can make a strong argument that this is one of the best metrics to determine quality of WR play.

Edited September 29 by Magox

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Why is it useless fluff? If we believe that this version of the Bills is who they are, why should we expect it to look different moving forward? 

Because you’re using stats from 1 game and 2 half games.  I don’t expect 2/3rds of our games to be won by halftime…. Do you?  If you don’t, then it’s useless fluff.  

 

and if by chance that were to be the case….there would be nothing negative about it.  Our WR numbers (180 catches and less than 2,000) would be just fine, because we’d be steam rolling every one.  
 

if you’re going to project those to be the WR numbers, why wouldn’t you also project our scoring numbers, wins, scoring differential along with them?
 

I’m not projecting anything.  I’m just stating that any statistical projection after the 3 games we just had are useless fluff.  If we were to project our scoring number, winds and scoring differential based on these 3 games, the results would ensure that our WRs would be just fine.  We’d be undefeated and crushing everyone weekly 

[Alphadawg7]

After 140 pages of all this 2 sided chatter...its really much much much simpler to determine the validity of the OP's actual thread.  His thread is titled:  

 

"I am really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better."

 

So there is one simple question that only needs to be asked:

• Going into Baltimore Sunday, which WR group do you want to see on the field this Sunday to give us the best chance to win the game?
  • A)  Last years group of Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield
  • B)  This years group of Shakir, Coleman, Hollins, Samuel, and MVS

It really is that simple in terms of the context of this threads actual point.  

 

And from my point of view, this is an obvious answer based on our first 3 weeks.  

[MasterStrategist]

19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

After 140 pages of all this 2 sided chatter...its really much much much simpler to determine the validity of the OP's actual thread.  His thread is titled:  

 

"I am really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better."

 

So there is one simple question that only needs to be asked:

• Going into Baltimore Sunday, which WR group do you want to see on the field this Sunday to give us the best chance to win the game?
  • A)  Last years group of Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield
  • B)  This years group of Shakir, Coleman, Hollins, Samuel, and MVS

It really is that simple in terms of the context of this threads actual point.  

 

And from my point of view, this is an obvious answer based on our first 3 weeks.  

Exactly.  Simple question and answer.

 

Joe Brady making a huge difference in play design/calling as well

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

After 140 pages of all this 2 sided chatter...its really much much much simpler to determine the validity of the OP's actual thread.  His thread is titled:  

 

"I am really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better."

 

So there is one simple question that only needs to be asked:

• Going into Baltimore Sunday, which WR group do you want to see on the field this Sunday to give us the best chance to win the game?
  • A)  Last years group of Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield
  • B)  This years group of Shakir, Coleman, Hollins, Samuel, and MVS

It really is that simple in terms of the context of this threads actual point.  

 

And from my point of view, this is an obvious answer based on our first 3 weeks.  

Nah, it’s the worst WR unit we’ve had in 40+ years.  

[GASabresIUFan]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

After 140 pages of all this 2 sided chatter...its really much much much simpler to determine the validity of the OP's actual thread.  His thread is titled:  

 

"I am really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better."

 

So there is one simple question that only needs to be asked:

• Going into Baltimore Sunday, which WR group do you want to see on the field this Sunday to give us the best chance to win the game?
  • A)  Last years group of Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield
  • B)  This years group of Shakir, Coleman, Hollins, Samuel, and MVS

It really is that simple in terms of the context of this threads actual point.  

 

And from my point of view, this is an obvious answer based on our first 3 weeks.  

Of course a group with Diggs is better, just ask him!

Edited September 29 by GASabresIUFan

[Mikey152]

12 hours ago, NewEra said:

Because you’re using stats from 1 game and 2 half games.  I don’t expect 2/3rds of our games to be won by halftime…. Do you?  If you don’t, then it’s useless fluff.  

 

and if by chance that were to be the case….there would be nothing negative about it.  Our WR numbers (180 catches and less than 2,000) would be just fine, because we’d be steam rolling every one.  
 

if you’re going to project those to be the WR numbers, why wouldn’t you also project our scoring numbers, wins, scoring differential along with them?
 

I’m not projecting anything.  I’m just stating that any statistical projection after the 3 games we just had are useless fluff.  If we were to project our scoring number, winds and scoring differential based on these 3 games, the results would ensure that our WRs would be just fine.  We’d be undefeated and crushing everyone weekly 

Ironically, this same crowd told me all offseason that I wasn’t allowed to project rate stats. (Even though that’s literally the point)…but apparently highly variable volume stats are fine to project.

[Mikey152]

19 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sorry that you haven't seen that stat before. The reason it's measured is that (and this goes without saying) QBs are less efficient when throwing the ball beyond their first read. Some are affected more than others of course. For example it's been a known weakness in Tua's game that his efficiency drops off a cliff when forced past his first read. For that reason it's notable that the Bills are the NFL's most efficient offense while being dead last in first read percentage.

 

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2023/first-read-targets-and-fantasy-football#/

 

 

As a point of reference, the difference between 7.9 YPA and 6.9 YPA was the difference between the 5th best QB and the 20th best QB last year.

 

This is what the article concludes after some statistical analysis:

 

 

I don't mean to use this stat to criticize. I commend Josh, Brady, and the OL for making this sort of inherently less efficient style the most efficient offense in the NFL. I credit the pass catchers for executing on the plays that go to them. But there is an implication here that we are not throwing to the first read a lot because of skill position talent deficiency.

Do you not see what is happening here?

Your original premise was the Bills offense will struggle because they have bad WR. That we are wasting Josh Allen.

 

Clearly through three games, this has not been the case. So now you have moved on to the premise that Josh and Brady are doing this IN SPITE of the Wr.

 

I can show you your bias pretty easily…

 

Our Qb is low in attempts (don’t trust him), most of his passes are around the LOS (probably because he throws so many picks otherwise), He barely completes passes to his WR despite the fact they are one of the most efficient groups in the nfl (game manager), and he never throws to his first read (indecisive and timid).

 

You give Josh the benefit of the doubt because you think he is great…but he’s middle of the pack in yards this year too, yall. He’s also on track for not even cracking 4K, and yet this is his best season ever.

 

i won’t go as far as to say it is hypocrisy, but it is 100% rooted in bias heading into the season. With Josh, you think he is great so you focus on the good. With the WR, you think they suck so you focus on the bad.

 

Maybe, just maybe…football is a team sport, and the Bills have built a good team. WR included.

[eball]

On 9/28/2024 at 12:08 AM, HappyDays said:

 

"Bad" isn't the right word. I would say they're doing fine.

 

Nobody can come in here and post 30 all-22 clips showing that the WRs aren't really playing above the scheme (the notable exception being Shakir after the catch). Here's a stat that I think at least implies that notion though:

 

So Allen is dead last in the NFL at throwing to his first read, only 55.6% of the time. It's an interesting stat that can probably be interpreted in a few different ways. What it tells me is that our WRs are not getting quick separation. Allen is having to move on but luckily he has been going though progressions at an elite level, the OL is holding up long enough for him to do that, and Brady's schemed route combinations are working well enough that somebody is eventually coming open along the natural progression. It's unicorn caliber that we're the NFL's most efficient offense while going to our 1st read barely half the time. That sort of thing just doesn't happen, but Allen and Brady are finding a way, and the WRs are executing just enough to make it work.

 

I know you don't believe those of us who say the WRs are meeting our offseason expectations, but it really is the case. I expected Shakir to have 4-5 targets per game and have elite YAC production. I expected Hollins to be mostly a blocking WR. I expected MVS to replicate his role with the Chiefs. I expected Coleman to be brought along slowly and only contribute here and there. Shakir I'll say has moderately exceeded my expectations only because a 100% catch rate is ridiculous and I have to give him some flowers for that. Samuel on the other hand has moderately fallen short of my expectations. So across the board I would say the room as a whole has met my expectations.

 

What has really exceeded my expectations so far are Josh Allen (improbably), the pass protection, and most of all Joe Brady. Those specific ingredients have been so good that they are masking the deficiencies. I'm not going to hedge myself and predict that the offense will fall off. I am flat out very impressed by the whole operation and I see signs that it is in fact sustainable and is in fact championship caliber. Still I stand by my view that the WR room specifically is below average relative to the rest of the league.

I thought about this “first read” statistic some more. Unless they know the play call, who is determining what the QB’s first read was?

 

Seems a bit sketchy to me. 
 

[3rdand12]

19 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Maybe. I just don’t think a slot can be a number 1 normally. St. Brown is the rare exception. I think Shakir can be a rich man’s Beasley and that’s a very valuable NFL player. He might be a $20M a year guy soon. A great piece and a guy that can take over a game are different. I’m not sure that he can take over a game.

Okay , just reading this.

I agree again with you on this.

Being a bit more high on Shakir in Brady's offense than you perhaps , but you would not expect him to take over a game. Or be the player the D Coaches focus upon.

Hope it stays that way. And Keon can becomes that big play guy.

Shakir can keep just doing "Shakir" things 🤩

[3rdand12]

18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

After 140 pages of all this 2 sided chatter...its really much much much simpler to determine the validity of the OP's actual thread.  His thread is titled:  

 

"I am really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better."

 

So there is one simple question that only needs to be asked:

• Going into Baltimore Sunday, which WR group do you want to see on the field this Sunday to give us the best chance to win the game?
  • A)  Last years group of Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield
  • B)  This years group of Shakir, Coleman, Hollins, Samuel, and MVS

It really is that simple in terms of the context of this threads actual point.  

 

And from my point of view, this is an obvious answer based on our first 3 weeks.  

You are gunning for moderator aren't you 😋 ?

Glad Diggs and Davis especially are gone. For fairly different reasons.

I would easily pick this group as having Much higher potential. Heck No shoes kid looks impressive on a few efforts so far

Thanks for going back to the OP

 Even though I do so love some of our diversions  😄

 Go Bills

[Simon]

Will reopen for discussion after the game

[Simon]

Re-opened for good discussion if any of y'all are still interested.

Hint: good does not mean "cut/fire everybody because I'm mad and don't understand what's happening!"

[Drew21PA]

Thought our wr group was fine last night - saw they called Mack hollins fave Davis last night after a first down grab