I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

This is fair, but the Dolphins WRs are objectively great and the Chiefs/Pats WR's were objectively not great.

 

There's really two sides to this equation.

 

1. Can the Bills run an enough good enough to win a Superbowl with this WR crew?

 

- Early returns say yes. The offense has been humming thus far, and Brady is in his bag and Josh is playing really excellent. Long season, but plenty to be optimistic about.

 

2. Is this WR crew considered "good" by NFL standards

 

- This is still very debateable. Illustrated below.

 

Here are the top 30ish WR's on the list this season by yardage.

 

Nabers

Collins

Lamb

Rice

Jennings

JJ

Metcalf

Godwin

Smith

Pierce

Chase

Adams

Jamo

St Brown

MHJ

Reed

Hill

Robinson

BTJ

Olave

Waddle

JSN

Reynolds

Pickens

Mooney

Shaheed

(Shakir)

Moore

Diggs

Tolbert

Odunze

Meyers

Wilson

Flowers

 

That list is in receiving yards. A very imperfect stat. But how many players on that list do you think Shakir and co. are better than?

Easily the most important takeaway from this list is that Shakir has more yards than Diggs.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

See above. I just want to know, who on that list is below Shakir or Coleman or MVS or Mack right now?

 

For example, If your opinion is that Shakir and Coleman are both top 15 guys on this list, then its totally fair to think this group is good.

 

Having to have two top 15 WR's on a team seems like a pretty high standard for "good" receiving core. That seems more like a standard for "great" or "elite" receiving core.

 

Going by receiving yards seems a bit silly at the moment given the Bills are near the league bottom in attempts. And they are not in the league bottom because of drops or a poor passing game. They have been extremely efficient. They just haven't needed to pass at the usual rate. 

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Simon said:

At #1 and #2, yes they are probably below the league norm right now(with the caveat that Coleman could change that before year's end).

But Samuel is better than most (if not all) #3's, Hollins is better than most #4s and MVS is better than most #5s.

I can get that.

 

Where the debate gets tricky is "is the gap between Coleman/Shakir and league average 1,2's bigger or more meaningful than the gap between our 3,4,5 and the league average ones?  And that is going to be different in 1-2 heavy offenses vs systems like the Bills are currently running.

 

And just FYI, I didn't include Samuel because of his injury. I think if he can get healthy, he will be our #1 or 2 or 3 depending on the day but he's seeing the least amount of snaps at WR currently. His role has not been WR3 in this offense thus far but pre-season I thought he would be number one.

13 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Having to have two top 15 WR's on a team seems like a pretty high standard for "good" receiving core. That seems more like a standard for "great" or "elite" receiving core.

 

Going by receiving yards seems a bit silly at the moment given the Bills are near the league bottom in attempts. And they are not in the league bottom because of drops or a poor passing game. They have been extremely efficient. They just haven't needed to pass at the usual rate. 

I had to copy the list form somewhere, I just said receiving yards so I didn't have to explain why some guys like Kupp or Nacua or AJ Brown aren't on the list.

[Simon]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Where the debate gets tricky is "is the gap between Coleman/Shakir and league average 1,2's bigger or more meaningful than the gap between our 3,4,5 and the league average ones?

 

Yeah, that's pretty much what it's about if you want to compare them to rooms around the league.

From this chair it looks so subjectively close that choosing a "side" is splitting hairs, imo.

My guess is that would be the case for about 20-25 teams all occupying the middle ground and then a handful that might stand out on either end.

I'd place the Bills smack dab in the middle of those 20ish average teams, with some potential to move up a bit if Coleman develops and Samuel gets healthy.

[BillsVet]

 

3 hours ago, eball said:

Incorrect, in particular because you are limiting your comment to WRs.  Kincaid gets down the field.  Cook gets down the field (even though he drops it).  Coleman's TD was down the field.

 

The Bills' passing game is clearly designed to give Josh some "easy answers" without waiting for deep routes to develop.  KC runs the same damn thing!  Are they limiting their strength at QB too?

 

The modern NFL demands quick plays...the Bills are adapting to that, not fighting against it.  I'll take 75+% Josh with a 7-0 TD/INT ratio, making some "Superman" plays here and there when he has to, every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

 

I watched the Giants/Cowboys game last night, and saw Jones force feed "true WR1" Nabers the ball 11 or 12 times for over 100 yards.  The Giants still didn't score a TD and lost a game in which they held Dallas to 20 points.

 

Sometimes I think many of you are just rooting for your fantasy football stats...

 

I haven't played fantasy football in 10 years.  It's boring to me.    

 

Point is, the way the WR/TE are being used is reflected in their YPC...which is about 11.5.  For a TE, that's OK but for an outside WR that's dismal.  

 

They're throwing short and taking what the defense gives them.  Great.  Many in this thread expect that to remain the same...why exactly?  Why would a DC just keep letting a successful offense keep right on doing what's worked against previous opponents?  

 

BTW, are you comparing Daniel Jones and the NY Giants to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills?  Those 2 teams?  Come on dude.   

 

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Spreading the ball around is a negative somehow.

 

Aside from maybe GB, there isn't a team in the NFL taking this approach on offense.  And given that Buffalo hasn't been an offensive trend-setter after 2020, I doubt very much this will catch on.  Teams still are looking for a 1 and 2, signing some to big contracts.  What makes you think the opposite approach is going to be sustainable for an entire season?  

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

 

I haven't played fantasy football in 10 years.  It's boring to me.    

 

Point is, the way the WR/TE are being used is reflected in their YPC...which is about 11.5.  For a TE, that's OK but for an outside WR that's dismal.  

 

They're throwing short and taking what the defense gives them.  Great.  Many in this thread expect that to remain the same...why exactly?  Why would a DC just keep letting a successful offense keep right on doing what's worked against previous opponents?  

 

BTW, are you comparing Daniel Jones and the NY Giants to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills?  Those 2 teams?  Come on dude.   

 

 

Aside from maybe GB, there isn't a team in the NFL taking this approach on offense.  And given that Buffalo hasn't been an offensive trend-setter after 2020, I doubt very much this will catch on.  Teams still are looking for a 1 and 2, signing some to big contracts.  What makes you think the opposite approach is going to be sustainable for an entire season?  

I have an entire reply with all the NFL offenses down this year and has been a trend for the last 2 years.  Reply to that post.

Edited September 28 by Royale with Cheese

[NewEra]

On 9/25/2024 at 9:51 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The 2024 Bills are currently 14th in that category and WR is a particularly low producing area of that group.

 

 

The 2024 bills WR starters have played one game vs az and 2 half games vs Miami and Jax.  The snaps they received in the 2nd half of the last two games were in blowout run out the clock situations.

I can’t believe how much time of your life that you continue to waste on this thread- saying the same thing 1 billion times. 
 

only because you know that it’s “not likely” that we win the Super Bowl (because it’s not “likely” any particular wins the SB).  That way, when we don’t win the Sb, you can blame it on the WRs.  
meanwhile elite WR Diggs came up lame and did nothing in any of our season ending losses.  Actually, he did something, he helped lose the game with poor play

[Tanoros]

5 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

This is the problem throughout this thread as it's continued during the season.  Some keep focusing on what's happened to predict what will/could.  I've seen you somewhat yield that things like defenses do change...but then go back to referencing how good they've been.    

 

Others have anticipated and used their intelligence guided by experience to predict that what's working now will be hindered as the season unfolds.  And therefore...they'll need something to respond.  Typically, that's through winning 1 on 1 matchups. 

 

Go on believing that past performance reasonably is a barometer.  Right now, the scheme is covering up a deficiency...the lack of better WR talent...and it will be brought out into the open.    

 

Average reception for WR's right now is about 11.5 yards.  Same with TE's.  That doesn't cut it and it's a reason why the Comp % is so high.  

You’re not considering how good offensive coordinators scheme their attack knowing and anticipating how defenses will adjust, and already having plans to counter those adjustments. Good coordinators are always calling certain plays, or using certain tendencies to set up other plays/tendencies. I highly doubt Joe Brady doesn’t already have a plan as to how he is going to adjust. 
 

The way you articulate your perspective is as if Joe Brady is calling his best shot now, and will have to figure out a new way as defenses adjust. I think he deserves having belief that he has a plan on how to adjust. In the end, we will see. 

Edited September 28 by Tanoros

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

 

I haven't played fantasy football in 10 years.  It's boring to me.    

 

Point is, the way the WR/TE are being used is reflected in their YPC...which is about 11.5.  For a TE, that's OK but for an outside WR that's dismal.  

 

They're throwing short and taking what the defense gives them.  Great.  Many in this thread expect that to remain the same...why exactly?  Why would a DC just keep letting a successful offense keep right on doing what's worked against previous opponents?  

 

BTW, are you comparing Daniel Jones and the NY Giants to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills?  Those 2 teams?  Come on dude.   

 

 

Aside from maybe GB, there isn't a team in the NFL taking this approach on offense.  And given that Buffalo hasn't been an offensive trend-setter after 2020, I doubt very much this will catch on.  Teams still are looking for a 1 and 2, signing some to big contracts.  What makes you think the opposite approach is going to be sustainable for an entire season?  

 

Well, aren't you sunshine and roses?

 

Hard to argue with results.

 

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

Aside from maybe GB, there isn't a team in the NFL taking this approach on offense.  And given that Buffalo hasn't been an offensive trend-setter after 2020, I doubt very much this will catch on.  Teams still are looking for a 1 and 2, signing some to big contracts.  What makes you think the opposite approach is going to be sustainable for an entire season?  

The simple answer to that question is Josh Allen.

 

But really, it's not a good question. The balance between run, and pass, and the offensive scheme in general has been different for all six halves of the season thus far. And we are paying a WR a big contract. He just doesn't happen to be playing with the Bills.

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, Tanoros said:

You’re not considering how good offensive coordinators scheme their attack knowing and anticipating how defenses will adjust, and already having plans to counter those adjustments. Good coordinators are always calling certain plays, or using certain tendencies to set up other plays/tendencies. I highly doubt Joe Brady doesn’t already have a plan as to how he is going to adjust. 
 

The way you articulate your perspective is as if Joe Brady is calling his best shot now, and will have to figure out a new way as defenses adjust. I think he deserves having belief that he has a plan on how to adjust. In the end, we will see. 

 

Good offensive coordinators can sneak up on opponents.  They can't scheme their way out of personnel deficiencies for an entire season.

 

Joe Brady has put together some nice calls, buy he can't overcome having a bottom-quartile WR group.  Especially not one that's less of a proven downfield threat. 

[Simon]

7 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

Joe Brady has put together some nice calls, buy he can't overcome having a bottom-quartile WR group.

 

What if he's also blessed with legit playmakers at both TE and RB. And a great group of blockers he can count on?

I think that maybe he can overcome an average WR room.

[Royale with Cheese]

9 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Good offensive coordinators can sneak up on opponents.  They can't scheme their way out of personnel deficiencies for an entire season.

 

Joe Brady has put together some nice calls, buy he can't overcome having a bottom-quartile WR group.  Especially not one that's less of a proven downfield threat. 

So you are guaranteeing our offense will fall later on in the season.

This is twice you have basically said that.

 

Okay, we will see.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

So you are guaranteeing our offense will fall later on in the season.

This is twice you have basically said that.

 

Okay, we will see.

I wonder if he has the mega million numbers since he seems to be able to read the future 

[Warriorspikes51]

Shakir....finds any way possible to get YAC.   +  Elite hands

 

Samuel....impact remains to be seen. Has been good on few targets.  Speedy, motion.

 

Coleman....growing and so far very solid when called upon

 

Hollins.... A unique character who has a positive impact.  Very good blocker.  Has a TD
 

MVS... is the Ravens game his time to shine?  Perhaps a few deep receptions 

Kincaid.... looking borderline elite

Knox... solid.  Will likely have more redzone impact as the season goes on 

 

No one is above 20% target share and so far it's working as good as you could hope for. 

Allen in COMMAND. 

[NewEra]

22 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Good offensive coordinators can sneak up on opponents.  They can't scheme their way out of personnel deficiencies for an entire season.

 

Joe Brady has put together some nice calls, buy he can't overcome having a bottom-quartile WR group.  Especially not one that's less of a proven downfield threat. 

“He can’t overcome?”
 

🤣 

 

some people are so smart 

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

Josh could have the best season of his life and win the MVP, and sentiments in here will be that he did it IN SPITE of his WR.

 

Cam Newton's MVP season in 2015, his top WRs were Ted Ginn, Jericho Cotchery, and Devin Funchess. His team went 15-1 and got to the Super Bowl. All of this was accomplished in spite of his WRs, yes?

 

WR is definitely a weakness, but it's not a problem until it becomes one. That's where we're at.

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

What if he's also blessed with legit playmakers at both TE and RB. And a great group of blockers he can count on?

I think that maybe he can overcome an average WR room.

You heard the man!!!  Shut up and sit down.  Let him talk!

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

This is fair, but the Dolphins WRs are objectively great and the Chiefs/Pats WR's were objectively not great.

 

There's really two sides to this equation.

 

1. Can the Bills run an enough good enough to win a Superbowl with this WR crew?

 

- Early returns say yes. The offense has been humming thus far, and Brady is in his bag and Josh is playing really excellent. Long season, but plenty to be optimistic about.

 

2. Is this WR crew considered "good" by NFL standards

 

- This is still very debateable. Illustrated below.

 

Here are the top 30ish WR's on the list this season by yardage.

 

Nabers

Collins

Lamb

Rice

Jennings

JJ

Metcalf

Godwin

Smith

Pierce

Chase

Adams

Jamo

St Brown

MHJ

Reed

Hill

Robinson

BTJ

Olave

Waddle

JSN

Reynolds

Pickens

Mooney

Shaheed

(Shakir)

Moore

Diggs

Tolbert

Odunze

Meyers

Wilson

Flowers

 

That list is in receiving yards. A very imperfect stat. But how many players on that list do you think Shakir and co. are better than?

Fair reply, but you already said it…receiving yards is not a viable stat here.  
 

I would take Shakir over a lot of guys above him on that list for example, a lot of them.  And for a lot of reasons and intangibles that Shakir brings that make him more valuable IMO than many guys on that list.
 

Think about this…look where Shakir is on this list.  Now consider the passing offense has really only been full throttle for essentially 2 halves of football this season.  Last 2 min of first half through the 2nd half of week 1 (Allen had only 2 pass attempts prior to that thanks to his own mistake, penalties in the OL, and the D not getting AZ off the field fast enough) and first half the Jags game.  Week 2 it was the Cook show and the offense took the 2nd half of the game off as it also did against the Jags in blow out losses.

 

Where do you think Shakir ranks yardage wise if we had gone all 4 quarters where the pass game was heavily involved all 3 weeks?

 

This is why this yardage stat for our particular offense has no relevancy on grading the quality of our guys play.  Josh hit 9 receivers week 1…Cook show week 2…and then he hit 10 guys week 3.  
 

As I have said, it is early, nothing is for sure right now moving forward still.  We need to see how this offense fares against tougher opposition when teams have more film to prepare for.  But as you said above, can they win a SB like this?  Well Pats and Chiefs won 9 like this so we know it can be done, the question is can we executing it at this high of a level when teams get more film on us.  But like you said, early results are promising, especially with how different our game plan has been each week. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Meanwhile, the bengals with a top 5 WR room are 0-3