I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Alphadawg7]

19 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah but interestingly, fantasy people are CRYING about how bad the league's TE production has been this season.   The Bills hasn't been statistically impressive either.   There was a lot of talk about how Dalton Kincaid was the now the new top target of the Bills.   I am a Kincaid fan but I wasn't buying that.   I pegged Shakir to lead them in the 900's.   He's looked great but still.......projecting in the 900's.   @Alphadawg7 and I were actually pretty close on the yardage predictions for Shakir but he thought those numbers would be great and I am not as overwhelmed by 900-1100 yards.   Those have been second option numbers for the Chiefs since Mahomes took over the QB position there.

 

You have this hang up with yardage totals while totally missing the point of this offense isn't going to allow any one person to put up a lot of yards.  

• Week 1 - Josh completed 18 passes to 9 different receivers.  He only had 2 attempts with just over 2 minutes left in the first half and the Bills went on to score 31 points in 31 minutes.  
• Week 2 - James Cooked and Josh threw for under 150 yards and basically we took the entire 2nd half off.  
• Week 3 - Josh competed passes to 10...thats ten...different receivers that resulted in 5 consecutive TD drives to start the game before the offense again just took the 2nd half off.

But...you keep wanting to go back to individual yardage totals to say the group hasn't been good or impressive.  Honestly don't think there could be a more inaccurate way to evaluate or grade the receivers performances the first 3 weeks than “total yards”. 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[3rdand12]

4 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

So true...

 

But just for fun, lets just try and pin him down...

 

Badol - 

 

Ignoring the small sample size for the moment, the fact that the Bills are the top scoring team in the NFL, 3-0, and have very low yardage output from their receivers compared to both the league and their own team last season are all true.

 

So, that leads us two one of only two possible conclusions, as far as I can tell. Either:

 

A) Yardage is an important indicator of WR quality/performance, and the Bills are succeeding IN SPITE of their WR...which also suggests that maybe top-flight WR isn't critical for a good offense?

 

or 

 

B) Top flight WR are important to a good offense, and the bills have a good offense...which logically means their WR are good (or at least a good fit) and yardage totals maybe aren't the best barometer of success because they are at least partially dependent on targets.

Not to anyone in particular here 🧡

 

But

 

 

[nedboy7]

Opposing teams and fans have no clue what to think of Brady’s offense. It’s so wonderful.  

[Magox]

Keon is so sLoW

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

Keon is so sLoW

 

 

shhhhh you will ruin the negative fantasy for some…they aren’t ready for facts

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

Keon is so sLoW

 

 

 

He always looked faster with the ball in his hands than without to me. I said that multiple times before the draft. 

[Fan in Chicago]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

Keon is so sLoW

 

 

He did look very fast on that TD. 

[Royale with Cheese]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He always looked faster with the ball in his hands than without to me. I said that multiple times before the draft. 

 

I played WR in high school and I ran faster with the ball in my hands.  The reason was because I pretended I stole the ball from someone and they are now chasing me.

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You have this hang up with yardage totals while totally missing the point of this offense isn't going to allow any one person to put up a lot of yards.  

• Week 1 - Josh completed 18 passes to 9 different receivers.  He only had 2 attempts with just over 2 minutes left in the first half and the Bills went on to score 31 points in 31 minutes.  
• Week 2 - James Cooked and Josh threw for under 150 yards and basically we took the entire 2nd half off.  
• Week 3 - Josh competed passes to 10...thats ten...different receivers that resulted in 5 consecutive TD drives to start the game before the offense again just took the 2nd half off.

But...you keep wanting to go back to individual yardage totals to say the group hasn't been good or impressive.  Honestly don't think there could be a more inaccurate way to evaluate or grade the receivers performances the first 3 weeks than “total yards”. 

 

 

If the Jags could have put up any sort of offense on Monday, Allen would have had 450 yards passing, 500 total yards and probably 6 TD's.  He wasn't being stopped or even slowed down by the Jags.  The only thing slowing our offense down was the score.  Allen had two pass attempts in the second half because we were up by 4+ scores the entire half.

[Saxum]

23 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Good WR do more than catch balls.  They block, they clear out routes for other receivers (RB, TE).  They run their routes correctly, so QB throwing to a spot dont end up with INT.  These things dont show up on the stat sheet, but they are critical aspects of overall WR play.

 

Reminds me of Stevie Johnson - Fitzpatrick told him he did not care what changes he made in route (although Fitzpatrick was very smart and understood why he would change route) as long as he got to spot at correct time.   Stevie did that leaving Revis in dust twice a year getting 1000 yards receiving three years in a row.

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I played WR in high school and I ran faster with the ball in my hands.  The reason was because I pretended I stole the ball from someone and they are now chasing me.

 

If the Jags could have put up any sort of offense on Monday, Allen would have had 450 yards passing, 500 total yards and probably 6 TD's.  He wasn't being stopped or even slowed down by the Jags.  The only thing slowing our offense down was the score.  Allen had two pass attempts in the second half because we were up by 4+ scores the entire half.

Exactly and it was why I kept hoping the Jags would score some cuz I had Allen, Kincaid, and Sahkir going in fantasy and FanDuel games and didn’t want them to just run the clock the whole 2nd half haha.  They ended up getting me enough points though to still win all of my games at least ha

[Kirby Jackson]

On 9/26/2024 at 8:28 AM, Motorin' said:

 

We are definitely playing Brady Ball. And the Pats won many of those years executing a system that features slot receivers, TE's and RB's in the passing game, combined with a strong commitment to running the ball.

 

The analysis by several posters, that recent Super Bowl winning teams need two #1 outside receivers have typically excluded the Pats as an outlier due to Brady being the Goat. 

 

But Josh can win playing Brady Ball. Even Tom Brady thinks Josh and the Bills can win the Super Bowl playing Brady Ball.

 

Chris Hogan was the most productive outside wr on the 2016 Pats, and was basically their #4 target. 

 

Edelman (slot) Bennett (TE), White (RB), Gronk (TE) and Amendola (slot) combined for about 3,000 yards and 75% of that team's receptions. 

 

 

I think that this a lot of this conversation. Can the Bills move the ball without elite WRs? Yep. Does that mean that the WRs are good? Nope. Both of those are true.

 

Those of us that have concerns have been, “are the WRs good enough when we need them to be?” The answer is still TBD. The outside WRs should need to contribute this week. We won’t know the answer for some time though. Shakir has been Cole Beasley that can run after the catch. He’s a quality WR. He’s not a number 1 at this point. They don’t have anyone else contributing at all really. The offense has still been quite good. So far though, the WRs remain the weakness of the team (specifically on the boundary). Will it matter? We don’t know yet.

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that this a lot of this conversation. Can the Bills move the ball without elite WRs? Yep. Does that mean that the WRs are good? Nope. Both of those are true.

 

Those of us that have concerns have been, “are the WRs good enough when we need them to be?” The answer is still TBD. The outside WRs should need to contribute this week. We won’t know the answer for some time though. Shakir has been Cole Beasley that can run after the catch. He’s a quality WR. He’s not a number 1 at this point. They don’t have anyone else contributing at all really. The offense has still been quite good. So far though, the WRs remain the weakness of the team (specifically on the boundary). Will it matter? We don’t know yet.

 

You have to look at the context.

AZ game, we threw the ball 5 times in the 1st half because our defense didn't get on the field.

Miami game a blow out and Cook was going off.  No need to pass the ball.

 

Jags game, we were up 31 at half time.  Allen threw 28 times in the 1st half with 254 yards passing.  You don't get 254 yards passing when your WR's aren't good.  I'm sorry.  To say we lack the elite level WR's, yes, that's fair.  To say we don't have good WR's, that's a bit much.  Shakir isn't a quality WR, he's on the verge of becoming a great WR.  

But again, up by 31 at half time, no need to pass anymore.  Allen was on pace to throw 56 times in the Jags game if the Jags had kept it somewhat in range.

[BillsVet]

13 minutes ago, Saxum said:

Reminds me of Stevie Johnson - Fitzpatrick told him he did not care what changes he made in route (although Fitzpatrick was very smart and understood why he would change route) as long as he got to spot at correct time.   Stevie did that leaving Revis in dust twice a year getting 1000 yards receiving three years in a row.

 

What I'll always remember about those years is the 2011 season.  Buffalo was 5-2 and hosting the Jets having averaged over 30 points that year.  Jets jammed their WR's at the LOS and set the blueprint on stopping Bills' offense...which was contingent on Fitz making short timed throws to a poor group of WRs.  Bills went 1-8 the rest of the way and offense fell off a cliff.  

 

It's an absurd comparison because Buffalo then was limited at least by A) their weak-armed QB needing an offensive design like that and B) a poor WR group.  Now, they have perhaps the best QB in the NFL surrounded by an ensemble cast of unproven or middling WRs and it's by design.  

 

In the first example, the offense had to hide their weaknesses.  In the second, they've minimized their strength at QB.    

[ColoradoBills]

25 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If the Jags could have put up any sort of offense on Monday, Allen would have had 450 yards passing, 500 total yards and probably 6 TD's.  He wasn't being stopped or even slowed down by the Jags.  The only thing slowing our offense down was the score.  Allen had two pass attempts in the second half because we were up by 4+ scores the entire half.

 

This is the why the question about "only the WR room" is difficult to be answered.

 

One thing is for certain, the Buffalo Bills do not care about who is catching footballs as long as they are being caught.

The O is doing what it's supposed to do.  Move the ball, don't turn it over and score TDs.

 

This argument will go on and on because there is no simple "statistical" way to know if the WRs are better or not.

Your post shows that receiving yards alone is not the end all of a fair comparison, despite what some fans may think.

There are way too many variables that would have to be judged to definitely determine the entire rooms worth.

It's a complicated task to answer that correctly.

 

From TDs to breaking up potential INTs from poorly placed balls to run blocking and drive saving 1st downs at critical times (to a dozen other things),

how can these things equate?  These things have to be judged on a play-by-play, drive-by-drive, game-by-game criteria.

 

We could "white board" all the determining factors that go into the job of a WR and then argue each traits significance, but this

would lead to more opinions of what is important and what is not.  

 

For an old man like me I sometimes just use the old eye-test method.  From what I see, the WRs are doing very well in THIS SYSTEM.

I hope that continues and that the WR room steps up in the games that it's desperately needed to.

I personally believe this WR room is better at THIS SYSTEM than last year's group.  I will acknowledge that in a world of "fantasy" football,

this may NOT be true, but as a Buffalo Bills fan, I just want the WIN! 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

44 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You have to look at the context.

AZ game, we threw the ball 5 times in the 1st half because our defense didn't get on the field.

Miami game a blow out and Cook was going off.  No need to pass the ball.

 

Jags game, we were up 31 at half time.  Allen threw 28 times in the 1st half with 254 yards passing.  You don't get 254 yards passing when your WR's aren't good.  I'm sorry.  To say we lack the elite level WR's, yes, that's fair.  To say we don't have good WR's, that's a bit much.  Shakir isn't a quality WR, he's on the verge of becoming a great WR.  

But again, up by 31 at half time, no need to pass anymore.  Allen was on pace to throw 56 times in the Jags game if the Jags had kept it somewhat in range.

For sure, but it becomes a little chicken and egg. Shakir has been quite good. He’s trending for 79/952/11. He doing it with great efficiency. Those numbers aren’t “elite.” That’s quality. That’s a better version of Beasley. The rest of the WRs COMBINED have 16/182/2. If you extrapolate that out it’s 91/1031/11. Obviously circumstance has played a role and the trends will likely change. I don’t think ANYONE can say that they’d be okay with our WRs combining for under 2000 yards and 180 catches (despite how well they block).
 

The teams has played great. The coaching has been next level good. Shakir is a quality WR and the backs/tes have been good as well. The WRs were the biggest concern entering the year and remain that now. It’s still a bottom 3 group but it may not matter. That’s what we all hoped. The passing game has been quite good. The run game has been quite good and those boundary WRs deserve a lot of credit for that too. Will this offense continue clicking like this when teams adjust and force those guys to beat them? 

Edited 1 hour ago by Kirby Jackson

[RoscoeParrish]

56 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that this a lot of this conversation. Can the Bills move the ball without elite WRs? Yep. Does that mean that the WRs are good? Nope. Both of those are true.

 

Those of us that have concerns have been, “are the WRs good enough when we need them to be?” The answer is still TBD. The outside WRs should need to contribute this week. We won’t know the answer for some time though. Shakir has been Cole Beasley that can run after the catch. He’s a quality WR. He’s not a number 1 at this point. They don’t have anyone else contributing at all really. The offense has still been quite good. So far though, the WRs remain the weakness of the team (specifically on the boundary). Will it matter? We don’t know yet.

I’ll be completely honest.

 

I thought boundary WR was going to be a weakness and I thought Brady was a huge question mark.

 

after 3 weeks, I’m more optimistic about the offense as a whole.

 

that doesn’t mean everything is all sunshine and rainbows, but I feel much better about this group than I did in August.

It sounds like @Alphadawg7 was more optimistic than I was to start the season, but I am getting there.

Edited 1 hour ago by RoscoeParrish

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, RoscoeParrish said:

I’ll be completely honest.

 

I thought boundary WR was going to be a weakness and I thought Brady was a huge question mark.

 

after 3 weeks, I’m more optimistic about the offense as a whole.

 

that doesn’t mean everything is all sunshine and rainbows, but I feel much better about this group than I did in August.

I think Brady has become the star. He has been masterful through 3 weeks. Everything is working. Unfortunately, we probably don’t have him back next year but this has been awesome to watch. 

[RoscoeParrish]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think Brady has become the star. He has been masterful through 3 weeks. Everything is working. Unfortunately, we probably don’t have him back next year but this has been awesome to watch. 

I said this in a previous topic, but who was the last OC to go to an HC job after 1 good or even great year? 
 

Only one I can think of is Gary Kubiak and that was a decade ago.

Edited 1 hour ago by RoscoeParrish

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For sure, but it becomes a little chicken and egg. Shakir has been quite good. He’s trending for 79/952/11. He doing it with great efficiency. Those numbers aren’t “elite.” That’s quality. That’s a better version of Beasley. The rest of the WRs COMBINED have 16/182/2. If you extrapolate that out it’s 91/1031/11. Obviously circumstance has played a role and the trends will likely change. I don’t think ANYONE can say that they’d be okay with our WRs combining for under 2000 yards and 180 catches (despite how well they block).
 

The teams has played great. The coaching has been next level good. Shakir is a quality WR and the backs/tes have been good as well. The WRs were the biggest concern entering the year and remain that now. It’s still a bottom 3 group but it may not matter. That’s what we all hoped. The passing game has been quite good. The run game has been quite good and those boundary WRs deserve a lot of credit for that too. Will this offense continue clicking like this when teams adjust and force those guys to beat them? 

 

I'll modify it to bottom 4. Woah boy the Ravens group has struggled. We will get a test of it Sunday Night but they are in my conversation now for bad WR groups. 

[RoscoeParrish]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'll modify it to bottom 4. Woah boy the Ravens group has struggled. We will get a test of it Sunday Night but they are in my conversation now for bad WR groups. 

Monken has also struggled imo.

 

They spent all that money on Derrick Henry without apparently understanding that Henry NEEDS 18 touches to be effective as a back. 
 

They looked to figure some things out last week, but they remind me a lot of the 2023 Eagles. Just disarray from the loss of their DC.