I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yep and you are welcome to start a different thread about that.  This thread is about the WR corps specifically.

 

 

I honestly think a new thread about the entire ensemble of pass catchers might be more interesting given how important TEs are to many of the best offenses in recent years (SF, KC, Brady's Pats, Baltimore). It's interesting to compare those teams that are more WR-centric (Eagles, Dallas, Green Bay, Chargers, Miami, etc.).

[pennstate10]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Considering that the question was always whether they had a SB worthy WR group.......no........it won't be resolved until they make it there.

 

Or don't.

 

In February.

 

WR is still the worst unit, relative to the rest of the league, that the Bills have.   Not LB or S. 

 

Who says no and if so which unit is lesser?

The original topic was:  We quietly got better (at WR).  Inferring that this unit was better, would be more successful at doing WR stuff.

 

OP said yes, for reasons outlined in his original post, which highlighted WR responsibilities other than catching the ball, such as blocking and running correct routes.  Others said no.

 

When assessing WR, many folks forget the following important aspect of WR play.

 

"You play to win the game".

 

Good WR do more than catch balls.  They block, they clear out routes for other receivers (RB, TE).  They run their routes correctly, so QB throwing to a spot dont end up with INT.  These things dont show up on the stat sheet, but they are critical aspects of overall WR play.

 

To say Bills have a bad WR unit because they are 14th in yardage is disingenuous as well.  Because of two blowout wins, Bills have thrown the ball for only 4 halves of football this year (the other 2 halves being run out the clock halves).  It stand to reason that would decrease their cumulative receiving yds.

 

The year is young yet, and Bills have a long way to go.  But I've been very pleased with overall WR play.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah you seem to be taking offense to the ongoing discussion.   Like it should be suspended.   The topic of the thread was established long ago.

 

I have said many times in this thread that we won't know if the plan at WR worked until February because the goal isn't to lose in January again.   They entered the offseason knowing WR was a weakness.    They made a series of moves.  We will see if they were better in February.

 

But there are a lot of people trying to totally re-frame the subject matter of the thread or re-adjust their argument and try to take a victory lap for the team winning another September Bowl.    There is even a mod who is gaslighting us with hyperbole about the degree of concern about not having a WR1.

 

It's illogical but comical and makes for some entertaining banter.   This board is just entertainment, after all.

Taking offense? Huh? That's not the case at all.

[Royale with Cheese]

Message board egos....lol  

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, Rocky Landing said:

To the bolded, that is significantly moving the goalposts. The question throughout this thread has been how well the WR would perform. Many of your own posts have centered around how this WR group would project, based on past performance. The Super Bowl has been mentioned very little.

 

In the context of this 127 page discussion, it is perfectly relevant to start evaluating the WR room, even if it's only based on three games.

 

So far, it would appear that:

• Shakir is emerging as the #1 WR
• Coleman, while promising, has gotten few targets (as expected).
• Hollins is being used a role WR (as expected).
• Samuel has not been nearly as productive as many have hoped.
• MVS (with his continued 50% completion rate) has not been nearly as productive as many have hoped.

 

 

The people I am debating with are taking issue with MY takes.   And my goal posts ain't moved.   I've been entirely consistent.  My argument for years has been that one of the greatest indicators of whether a team can reach a SB has been the quality of their receiving targets.  I've illustrated that probably a dozen or more times.  If you follow Reception Perception you'd also understand.  The last time they had a top 3 WR corps was 2020.   It's also the farthest they've gone in the playoffs.  4-6 teams typically have two pass catchers in the top 32 in the NFL in receiving yardage..........and those teams tend to be reaching SB's.   Stop me if you realize you've heard any of this before.

 

The rest of your analysis is entirely SUBJECTIVE.   I gave you the actual numbers.   They production is WAY down.  They have been de-emphasized so far.   That's all we know.

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

The original topic was:  We quietly got better (at WR).  Inferring that this unit was better, would be more successful at doing WR stuff.

 

OP said yes, for reasons outlined in his original post, which highlighted WR responsibilities other than catching the ball, such as blocking and running correct routes.  Others said no.

 

When assessing WR, many folks forget the following important aspect of WR play.

 

"You play to win the game".

 

Good WR do more than catch balls.  They block, they clear out routes for other receivers (RB, TE).  They run their routes correctly, so QB throwing to a spot dont end up with INT.  These things dont show up on the stat sheet, but they are critical aspects of overall WR play.

 

To say Bills have a bad WR unit because they are 14th in yardage is disingenuous as well.  Because of two blowout wins, Bills have thrown the ball for only 4 halves of football this year (the other 2 halves being run out the clock halves).  It stand to reason that would decrease their cumulative receiving yds.

 

The year is young yet, and Bills have a long way to go.  But I've been very pleased with overall WR play.

It's just as disingenuous to say that because their yardage is low the group is actually good lol

 

the correct answer we've been in two blowouts that have likely depressed receiving yardage. however, it's also very valid to have sustainability concerns of a top scoring offense supported by middle of the pack yardage production

[BADOLBILZ]

51 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I honestly think a new thread about the entire ensemble of pass catchers might be more interesting given how important TEs are to many of the best offenses in recent years (SF, KC, Brady's Pats, Baltimore). It's interesting to compare those teams that are more WR-centric (Eagles, Dallas, Green Bay, Chargers, Miami, etc.).

 

Yeah but interestingly, fantasy people are CRYING about how bad the league's TE production has been this season.   The Bills hasn't been statistically impressive either.   There was a lot of talk about how Dalton Kincaid was the now the new top target of the Bills.   I am a Kincaid fan but I wasn't buying that.   I pegged Shakir to lead them in the 900's.   He's looked great but still.......projecting in the 900's.   @Alphadawg7 and I were actually pretty close on the yardage predictions for Shakir but he thought those numbers would be great and I am not as overwhelmed by 900-1100 yards.   Those have been second option numbers for the Chiefs since Mahomes took over the QB position there.

[Mikey152]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

@Mikey152 was saying Curtis Samuel will replace Stefon Diggs production in this offense. I remember him extrapolating Samuel's yards per target to mean that he could rack up 1,400 yards in this offense.

 

(Sorry for the call out Mikey, feel free to call me out for the fact that I didn't know if the Bills offense could be a top 10 scoring offense with this receiving group.)

 

Every WR right now is meeting the expectation I had. The sole exception is Samuel who is coming in well below my expectation. The surprise of the season is not that the Bills WRs are performing above their weight class, but that the offense as a whole is efficient as can be despite having such middling WR production. To me the three biggest reasons for that in order are Josh Allen taking his game to another level, the OL being stellar in pass protection, and Joe Brady leaning on his players' strengths and actually gameplanning for his opponents. The WR room is definitely still a weakness overall. But I can't say it's an insurmountable problem until it becomes one on the scoreboard.

 

That’s not actually what I said, but it’s fine.

 

What I actually said was, why can’t Curtis Samuel play the Diggs role of flanker in this offense? They’re similar athletes from a size and skill perspective. When I predicted production, I projected him for like 90 targets and 700 yards. What I didn’t know at the time was how different the offense would look and how many personnel groupings they would run out there…my assumptions were based on last year and last years usage rates when the bottom half of the depth chart was trash.

 

And Badol, I DID project targets and yards based on 550 attempts and previous year ypt. So far, it looks pretty right…Shakir with around 1k yards, Kincaid around 8-900 and everyone else between like 2-700. If they throw less than 550 times, obviously those numbers drop proportionally…more they go up. But it had Josh around 4300 yards, which is right around 8.2 ypa.  He’s at 8.8.

 

Edit:  Looks like I actually projected Samuel for 80 targets and 500 yards.

Edited September 26 by Mikey152

[Mikey152]

On 6/24/2024 at 1:11 PM, Mikey152 said:

Here's a post I had from another thread...I feel like this is pretty realistic. Feel free to tell me why you don't think this works..

 

Ok, let's try something here...

 

Lets assume the Bills throw the ball ~550 times this year, and the target breakdown is something like:

 

Cook - 50

Shakir - 80

Samuel - 80

Coleman - 70

Knox - 50

Kincaid - 120

MVS - 50

Everyone else - 50

 

And everyone is around the same ypt as last season

 

Cook - 8.2 (410)

Shakir - 13.6 (led NFL among qualifiers) (1088)

Samuel - 6.7 (536)

Coleman - 9.2 (this was Gabe's) (644)

Knox - 5.2 (260)

Kincaid - 7.4 (888)

MVS - 7.5 (375)

Everyone else - 7 (350)

 

That puts Josh at 4,551 yards passing (8.2 ypa), which would be a career high on what is also his lowest attempts since 2019.  

 

Even if you see regression from Shakir and Coleman, that would likely be propped up by some positive regression from MVS (8.5 in 2022) Knox (8.0 in 2022) and Samuel (7.1 in 2022 and 8.8 in 2020 under Joe Brady)

 

I think a lot of you are underrating just how inefficient Diggs was last season with his targets. He was in line with a TE, not a #1 WR.

Here is my predictions…looking pretty realistic IMO…just sayin

[ColoradoBills]

LOL, the cherry picking of stats in this thread is epic.

 

No one can use this year's passing stats (so far) and compare it to any previous year.

Currently, Josh Allen is on pace for 3,587 yards for the entire 17 game season.

Let THAT sink in.  Josh is averaging 211 yards per game.  The next closest year to that is 2019.

 

The entire Bills team has played together so well that Josh has only 634 yards so far.  That's all that has been needed for the Buffalo Bills to be

the HIGHEST SCORING team in the NFL.

 

FWIW.

[dave mcbride]

14 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

LOL, the cherry picking of stats in this thread is epic.

 

No one can use this year's passing stats (so far) and compare it to any previous year.

Currently, Josh Allen is on pace for 3,587 yards for the entire 17 game season.

Let THAT sink in.  Josh is averaging 211 yards per game.  The next closest year to that is 2019.

 

The entire Bills team has played together so well that Josh has only 634 yards so far.  That's all that has been needed for the Buffalo Bills to be

the HIGHEST SCORING team in the NFL.

 

FWIW.

Yeah, there will likely be a game before too long where he airs it out 43 times and throws for 378 yards. The Bills will be behind and he'll need to air it out. The Bills aren't going 17-0, so you know it's coming eventually.

 

3 games -- with 2 blowouts -- is too small a sample size. 

[eball]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah but interestingly, fantasy people are CRYING about how bad the league's TE production has been this season.   The Bills hasn't been statistically impressive either.   There was a lot of talk about how Dalton Kincaid was the now the new top target of the Bills.   I am a Kincaid fan but I wasn't buying that.   I pegged Shakir to lead them in the 900's.   He's looked great but still.......projecting in the 900's.   @Alphadawg7 and I were actually pretty close on the yardage predictions for Shakir but he thought those numbers would be great and I am not as overwhelmed by 900-1100 yards.   Those have been second option numbers for the Chiefs since Mahomes took over the QB position there.

 

If there's one thing I know, it's that whatever happens this season you'll skew the conversation to make it seem as though you predicted it all along...it's like the sun rising and setting.

 

Tell us again how the Bills aren't a young team "in any regard?"  You conveniently dropped out of that conversation after being "corrected."

 

I also noticed in the Shakir thread that you couldn't help yourself from demeaning him at your first opportunity (the "short-armed Shakir").

 

You keep being you, dude...the rest of us are enjoying our team without having to prove ourselves right all the time.

 

(waiting for the incoming personal insult/attack in 3...2...1...)

 

[Mikey152]

12 minutes ago, eball said:

 

If there's one thing I know, it's that whatever happens this season you'll skew the conversation to make it seem as though you predicted it all along...it's like the sun rising and setting.

 

Tell us again how the Bills aren't a young team "in any regard?"  You conveniently dropped out of that conversation after being "corrected."

 

I also noticed in the Shakir thread that you couldn't help yourself from demeaning him at your first opportunity (the "short-armed Shakir").

 

You keep being you, dude...the rest of us are enjoying our team without having to prove ourselves right all the time.

 

(waiting for the incoming personal insult/attack in 3...2...1...)

 

So true...

 

But just for fun, lets just try and pin him down...

 

Badol - 

 

Ignoring the small sample size for the moment, the fact that the Bills are the top scoring team in the NFL, 3-0, and have very low yardage output from their receivers compared to both the league and their own team last season are all true.

 

So, that leads us two one of only two possible conclusions, as far as I can tell. Either:

 

A) Yardage is an important indicator of WR quality/performance, and the Bills are succeeding IN SPITE of their WR...which also suggests that maybe top-flight WR isn't critical for a good offense?

 

or 

 

B) Top flight WR are important to a good offense, and the bills have a good offense...which logically means their WR are good (or at least a good fit) and yardage totals maybe aren't the best barometer of success because they are at least partially dependent on targets.

Edited September 26 by Mikey152

[RoscoeParrish]

12 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

A) Yardage is an important indicator of WR quality/performance, and the Bills are succeeding IN SPITE of their WR...which also suggests that maybe top-flight WR isn't critical for a good offense?

A good offense? With Josh Allen at QB?

 

No, you don’t need elite weapons.

 

To win a SB?

 

I think you do.

[Magox]

Using yards receiving stats as somehow being indicative and proof positive that the Bills WR’s are a “middling” group is peak idiocy.

 

We could do the same for the TE production and it would be somewhere in the middle as well, RB’s the same.

 

I guess if that’s the stat line we are going with then we just have a middling group of offensive receiving talent that is miraculously performing at an elite level that no other offense has equaled this year lol.

 

You guys are a hoot

 

 

[RoscoeParrish]

8 minutes ago, Magox said:

Using yards receiving stats as somehow being indicative and proof positive that the Bills WR’s are a “middling” group is peak idiocy.

 

We could do the same for the TE production and it would be somewhere in the middle as well, RB’s the same.

 

I guess if that’s the stat line we are going with then we just have a middling group of offensive receiving talent that is miraculously performing at an elite level that no other offense has equaled this year lol.

 

You guys are a hoot

 

 

Josh is performing at an elite level. A clear level above basically every other QB in the NFL. He leads the league in passer rating, QBR, ANY/A. Any advanced statistic has him sitting far in the top right of any graph.

 

FWIW, James Cook is the 10th RB in yards from scrimmage and tied for 2nd in TD’s.

 

 

 

[Don Otreply]

All I can say is opponents can’t double team five guys at a time, and all those guys can catch the damn ball, and run with it, pretty Fuh king awesome no? I can’t wait for this Sunday, how about all y’all…, 

[ColoradoBills]

14 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Josh is performing at an elite level. A clear level above basically every other QB in the NFL. He leads the league in passer rating, QBR, ANY/A. Any advanced statistic has him sitting far in the top right of any graph.

 

FWIW, James Cook is the 10th RB in yards from scrimmage and tied for 2nd in TD’s.

 

 

 

 

TDs?  What is this TD stat.  I had to look it up.

Bills have 14 of them so far this year.  More than any other team.

 

Are they really as important as yards by receiving position?  QB passing yards?

I need to investigate this some more!  I'll get back with everyone once I do.

[Rocky Landing]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The people I am debating with are taking issue with MY takes.   And my goal posts ain't moved.   I've been entirely consistent.  My argument for years has been that one of the greatest indicators of whether a team can reach a SB has been the quality of their receiving targets.  I've illustrated that probably a dozen or more times.  If you follow Reception Perception you'd also understand.  The last time they had a top 3 WR corps was 2020.   It's also the farthest they've gone in the playoffs.  4-6 teams typically have two pass catchers in the top 32 in the NFL in receiving yardage..........and those teams tend to be reaching SB's.   Stop me if you realize you've heard any of this before.

 

The rest of your analysis is entirely SUBJECTIVE.   I gave you the actual numbers.   They production is WAY down.  They have been de-emphasized so far.   That's all we know.

Not sure why I'm bothering to respond to this, but... why not?

 

Entirely SUBJECTIVE??? I don't think so...

• On Shakir emerging as #1 WR-- most targets, most receptions (at 100%, no less), and most yards of all our WRs is a pretty objective indication. Actual numbers.
• On Coleman getting fewer targets than expected-- seven in three games, all but two of them in week one. Again, actual numbers.
• Hollins being used as a role receiver. Has he not? Down-field blocking, drawing coverage in the RZ, etc. This is what we expected, and it's what he's done. (Maybe that's a little subjective, but so what?)

• On Samuel not been nearly as productive as many had hoped. There was a lot of hype surrounding Samuel, his ability, and familiarity with Joe Brady's offense. I don't know how you would deny that. I wasn't buying it, but there were some here who thought Samuel was going to be the #1WR on this team. Six receptions in three games. Actual numbers.

• On MVS' 50% comp rate, and lack of production. OK... ya got me there. Five targets, two receptions. That's actually a 40% comp rate. But still, I think I can objectively say (using actual numbers) that's not a helluva lot of production.

BTW- not sure why having a subjective analysis is such a bad thing in the first place? Actual numbers, or not. You can't really say that you've been objectively cherry-picking those stat lines you've been using to pursue your narrative.

 

And honestly, regardless of who you've been "debating," to come out and say, "the question was always whether they had a SB worthy WR group..." is simply untrue. What it really looks like is you moving the goalposts because it SUBJECTIVELY looks like some of our WRs (at least by some actual numbers) might exceed your projections.

[Don Otreply]

15 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Not sure why I'm bothering to respond to this, but... why not?

 

Entirely SUBJECTIVE??? I don't think so...

• On Shakir emerging as #1 WR-- most targets, most receptions (at 100%, no less), and most yards of all our WRs is a pretty objective indication. Actual numbers.
• On Coleman getting fewer targets than expected-- seven in three games, all but two of them in week one. Again, actual numbers.
• Hollins being used as a role receiver. Has he not? Down-field blocking, drawing coverage in the RZ, etc. This is what we expected, and it's what he's done. (Maybe that's a little subjective, but so what?)

• On Samuel not been nearly as productive as many had hoped. There was a lot of hype surrounding Samuel, his ability, and familiarity with Joe Brady's offense. I don't know how you would deny that. I wasn't buying it, but there were some here who thought Samuel was going to be the #1WR on this team. Six receptions in three games. Actual numbers.

• On MVS' 50% comp rate, and lack of production. OK... ya got me there. Five targets, two receptions. That's actually a 40% comp rate. But still, I think I can objectively say (using actual numbers) that's not a helluva lot of production.

BTW- not sure why having a subjective analysis is such a bad thing in the first place? Actual numbers, or not. You can't really say that you've been objectively cherry-picking those stat lines you've been using to pursue your narrative.

 

And honestly, regardless of who you've been "debating," to come out and say, "the question was always whether they had a SB worthy WR group..." is simply untrue. What it really looks like is you moving the goalposts because it SUBJECTIVELY looks like some of our WRs (at least by some actual numbers) might exceed your projections.

It’s tuff with bado, he loves the sound of his key strokes so very much, and you are correct in that his goal posts move like waves in the ocean, but more power to you for conversing with him,