I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[hondo in seattle]

12 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Hollis are your top 4.  Kincaid and Knox when going 2TE.  Throw in Cook and Davis.

 

This group is better than the group at the end of last year.  

 

I'm not sure it's better.  I hope it is.  I'm confident it's not significantly worse.

 

At the end of last year, Diggs was mediocre and Davis struggled to gain separation all season long.  

 

The best receivers at the end of the season were Kincaid and Shakir and they're both still on the team.  

[NeverOutNick]

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I'm not sure it's better.  I hope it is.  I'm confident it's not significantly worse.

 

At the end of last year, Diggs was mediocre and Davis struggled to gain separation all season long.  

 

The best receivers at the end of the season were Kincaid and Shakir and they're both still on the team.  

Amen! Those are the 2 that matter this year. Yes it would’ve been awesome to have a splash in the draft and get Odunze or go multiple WRs like the packers do with the chance at Coleman, AD Mitchell and Troy Franklin (1st, 2nd and 3rd round) or heck we could’ve paid to get ayuik but at the end of the day this is what we’ve got at WR. I’m confident in Shakir and Kincaid after that it’s a week to week with Samuel being the gadget guy, Hollins being our special teams leader who occasionally makes a big play and Coleman hopefully he becomes a steady constant come playoff time. I’d love for Hamler to be on the team because of his explosiveness but he needs to not suck the last 2 preseason games. That last spot would be cool to have a guy like Corey Davis but I’m not holding my breath because who knows if he still has it in him. He hasn’t been healthy since like 2020

 

 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I'm not sure it's better.  I hope it is.  I'm confident it's not significantly worse.

 

At the end of last year, Diggs was mediocre and Davis struggled to gain separation all season long.  

 

The best receivers at the end of the season were Kincaid and Shakir and they're both still on the team.  

If we're status quo with not very good, it's a massive fail. I'll be pleased to be wrong, but I'm not at all confident about the offense.

Brady will have to turn out to be a superlative OC, imo, and I don't think there's significant evidence of that. I am comfortable saying the "quietly got better" line is whistling in the dark.

 

Outside of Brady being top shelf as an OC, I think the keys are the oline playing very well and Kincaid taking over as a legit primary weapon. Shakir and Samuel are the best receivers. We are largely selling a movie with a solid cast of supporting actors and no stars, unless Kincaid adds depth to his routes and becomes a force. I don't count on Coleman contributing a lot, though he should be a red zone target.

[Chicken Boo]

7 hours ago, Chaos said:

Mahomes is not better than Allen. 

 

He absolutely is.  

 

Imagine if roles were reversed and Allen had the MVPs and Lombardis.  You'd be calling him the greatest of all time.  

[Maynard]

We quietly all got diarrhea.

[Long Suffering Fan]

8 hours ago, Chaos said:

Mahomes is not better than Allen. 

 

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

He wasn't last year

 

Here is the thing.  Ask any Chiefs fan and they will tell you that Andy Reid is one of the best offensive coaches of all time and way better than McD.  Shoot, most people on this board agree with them.  On top of that, Kelce might be the best pass catching TE of all time.  Importantly, both Reid and Kelce had that reputation prior to Mahomes.  

 

We all agree that offensive coaching really matters.  That is why you can't use Superbowl wins as definitive proof that Mahomes is better.  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

6 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

No one can say they are better. They have potential.

I can and I did.  Diggs and Davis were not good at the end of last year.

6 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

6 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Edited August 15 by oldmanfan

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

If we're status quo with not very good, it's a massive fail. I'll be pleased to be wrong, but I'm not at all confident about the offense.

Brady will have to turn out to be a superlative OC, imo, and I don't think there's significant evidence of that. I am comfortable saying the "quietly got better" line is whistling in the dark.

 

Outside of Brady being top shelf as an OC, I think the keys are the oline playing very well and Kincaid taking over as a legit primary weapon. Shakir and Samuel are the best receivers. We are largely selling a movie with a solid cast of supporting actors and no stars, unless Kincaid adds depth to his routes and becomes a force. I don't count on Coleman contributing a lot, though he should be a red zone target.

 

 

And a bit too much is made about the play of Shakir and Kincaid down the stretch last season.

 

The narrative is that they were the top receivers down the stretch........but produced just 52 and 41 yards per game paces.........which projects to just 882 and 697 yards in a 17 game season, respectively.    Not surprisingly Allen's passing numbers in that stretch were his worst since at least 2019.  

 

That kinda' production ain't gonna' cut it.   

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

And a bit too much is made about the play of Shakir and Kincaid down the stretch last season.

 

The narrative is that they were the top receivers down the stretch........but produced just 52 and 41 yards per game paces.........which projects to just 882 and 697 yards in a 17 game season, respectively.    Not surprisingly Allen's passing numbers in that stretch were his worst since at least 2019.  

 

That kinda' production ain't gonna' cut it.   

 

 

LOL...come on, do I even have to point out why this is such a silly comment?

 

You just took that part of their season last year when they had LESSER roles and targets than they are expected to have this year and said that "ain't gonna cut it" in a 17 game season (implying this year as primary targets).  Obviously that isn't going to cut it...they were the 5th and 3rd targets last year and now are likely 1 and 2 this year.  Sure...in a 17 game season putting up the same numbers they had as lesser targets "is not gonna cut it".  

 

For their ACTUAL roles LAST year, those stats are quite good.  Shakir was the FIFTH target last year and over the final 10 games, he had LESS than HALF the targets Diggs and yet still led the team in receiving the final 10 games...and on the season, Shakir had an insane 13.58 YPT while also leading ALL NFL WR's  in catch % (which probably still kills you after you spent all last offseason and even during the season arguing "Shakir can't catch" because of one play you saw against Miami in the postseason).  Kincaid was the 3rd target on this team and as a rookie he went out and put up the 4th most receptions and 10th most yards for any rookie TE in NFL history despite playing on a team with a target vacuum like Diggs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 15 by Alphadawg7

[BananaB]

18 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Then why were the Chiefs #15 in scoring and we were #4 when every single thing they have is better?

Teams like the Colts, Saints and the Browns were ahead of the Chiefs.

 

Until Allen wins it all, he can't be put ahead of Mahomes.

 

Mahomes has 3 Super Bowl wins and 6 AFCCG's before the age of 29.  

Beacause it’s a team sport and they have a better team around him. Defense doesn’t fold in key situations. In that playoff game Allen held the ball for almost 40 minutes, put up over 24 points and Bass missed a FG. Their D did a hell of a job. Bills D gave up 27 points in a little more than 20 minutes.   That’s the difference. Something Allen has no control over, just like 13 seconds. 

[Dillenger4]

10 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Beacause it’s a team sport and they have a better team around him. Defense doesn’t fold in key situations. In that playoff game Allen held the ball for almost 40 minutes, put up over 24 points and Bass missed a FG. Their D did a hell of a job. Bills D gave up 27 points in a little more than 20 minutes.   That’s the difference. Something Allen has no control over, just like 13 seconds. 

Bingo!

Our O this season will keep pace and be better than last year. Samuel alone is gonna impress. Kincaid, Shakir and Coleman and Davis will only help the scoring. It's our D that is suspect and always, always the part that kills us. Now with Milano out again (word is) that sucks! We go get a LB this week I bet.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

LOL...come on, do I even have to point out why this is such a silly comment?

 

You just took that part of their season last year when they had LESSER roles and targets than they are expected to have this year and said that "ain't gonna cut it" in a 17 game season (implying this year as primary targets).  Obviously that isn't going to cut it...they were the 5th and 3rd targets last year and now are likely 1 and 2 this year.  Sure...in a 17 game season putting up the same numbers they had as lesser targets "is not gonna cut it".  

 

For their ACTUAL roles LAST year, those stats are quite good.  Shakir was the FIFTH target last year and over the final 10 games, he had LESS than HALF the targets Diggs and yet still led the team in receiving the final 10 games...and on the season, Shakir had an insane 13.58 YPT while also leading ALL NFL WR's  in catch % (which probably still kills you after you spent all last offseason and even during the season arguing "Shakir can't catch" because of one play you saw against Miami in the postseason).  Kincaid was the 3rd target on this team and as a rookie he went out and put up the 4th most receptions and 10th most yards for any rookie TE in NFL history despite playing on a team with a target vacuum like Diggs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh as always you protest too much.   Like I said.........the narrative that they were already the top 2 receivers is wrong.   

 

Neither was producing good "first option" bulk numbers......even over the limited sample size........and we haven't yet seen what they will do with the tougher matchups that guys like Diggs and Davis absorbed for the offense.

 

Important to note.........the objective in Buffalo shouldn't be to get back to the level of offense that they were in 2023.   A team that was one play......like Kadarius Toney lining up offside.....away from missing the playoffs altogether.    A team where one of the OC's had to be fired and the other guided Josh Allen to passing lows he hadn't seen in 5 years.

 

The objective should be to get back to the level of the 2020-2022 offense's and those had a WR1 option that was putting up over 1400 yards per season AND had depth of solid receiving production from guys like Beasley/Sanders/Davis/Knox/Brown.

 

 

 

Edited August 15 by BADOLBILZ

[billsfan89]

10 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

He absolutely is.  

 

Imagine if roles were reversed and Allen had the MVPs and Lombardis.  You'd be calling him the greatest of all time.  

I think Josh is as good as Mahomes but you have to acknowledge that Josh has not proven that yet. 

[Royale with Cheese]

24 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Beacause it’s a team sport and they have a better team around him. Defense doesn’t fold in key situations. In that playoff game Allen held the ball for almost 40 minutes, put up over 24 points and Bass missed a FG. Their D did a hell of a job. Bills D gave up 27 points in a little more than 20 minutes.   That’s the difference. Something Allen has no control over, just like 13 seconds. 

 

In the 13 seconds game, the Chiefs defense gave up 3 TD's in 3 minutes.  When the Chiefs offense was putting up points, their defense kept giving it up to us.

 

Do you think it's a lot harder to beat Patrick Mahomes with 3 out of your top 4 linebackers out and the one that played, Dodson, was playing through an injury?  Not to mention, 2 starters out in the secondary in Rapp and Benford.  Rapp was our back up safety already so we were down to our 3rd safety.  I would be disappointed in the Bills offense if they didn't put up points if the Chiefs were missing McDuffie, Nick Nolton, Willie Gay, Justin Reid and Mike Edwards in that game.  

 

Allen didn't have control over that or the Diggs drop.  That's not the point.  The point is Mahomes is considered the better QB just because he has the hardware and Allen doesn't.  Regardless if Allen is more talented.  You are measured by championships....that was my point.

[hondo in seattle]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

And a bit too much is made about the play of Shakir and Kincaid down the stretch last season.

 

The narrative is that they were the top receivers down the stretch........but produced just 52 and 41 yards per game paces.........which projects to just 882 and 697 yards in a 17 game season, respectively.    Not surprisingly Allen's passing numbers in that stretch were his worst since at least 2019.  

 

That kinda' production ain't gonna' cut it.   

 

 

Production has a lot to do with scheme and targets.  Last year's scheme was built around Diggs and Davis, mostly Diggs.  I think you'll see Shakir's production go up this year.  Probably Kincaid's too.  People will fill the void.  

 

If you look at catch rate and separation stats, you could make a strong argument that Kincaid and Shakir were better receivers than Diggs and Davis last year.  Let's see how they do with more opportunity.  I wouldn't say I'm supremely confident, but I'm definitely not pessimistic.  More just curious.  

 

 

 

[since79]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

And a bit too much is made about the play of Shakir and Kincaid down the stretch last season.

 

The narrative is that they were the top receivers down the stretch........but produced just 52 and 41 yards per game paces.........which projects to just 882 and 697 yards in a 17 game season, respectively.    Not surprisingly Allen's passing numbers in that stretch were his worst since at least 2019.  

 

That kinda' production ain't gonna' cut it.   

 

While I agree in part.  During the end of the season we were forcing balls to Diggs. Behind the line screens with him simply dropping the ball. Stats are tough passing when the weather gets cold and bad.  Historically our receivers with Allen tear it up earlier in the year.  The extrapolation of their potential year totals may not translate.  

 

We do expect better production and yes if it is those numbers it may not cut it.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, hondo in seattle said:

 

Production has a lot to do with scheme and targets.  Last year's scheme was built around Diggs and Davis, mostly Diggs.  I think you'll see Shakir's production go up this year.  Probably Kincaid's too.  People will fill the void.  

 

If you look at catch rate and separation stats, you could make a strong argument that Kincaid and Shakir were better receivers than Diggs and Davis last year.  Let's see how they do with more opportunity.  I wouldn't say I'm supremely confident, but I'm definitely not pessimistic.  More just curious.  

 

 

I think there is almost zero chance Shakir's efficiency holds with a higher target share. The WGR morning show was talking about it last week. Sure his catch % may stay high, but when you are talking about the relatively middling volume of targets he had last year then breaking a couple of big plays from the slot skew the figures and his yards per reception get inflated. 

[Cash]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think there is almost zero chance Shakir's efficiency holds with a higher target share. The WGR morning show was talking about it last week. Sure his catch % may stay high, but when you are talking about the relatively middling volume of targets he had last year then breaking a couple of big plays from the slot skew the figures and his yards per reception get inflated. 

 

Agreed.  It's very likely that both:

1.) Shakir will take a step forward as an NFL player this year, and

2.) Shakir's efficiency numbers drop off compared to last year

 

This is regression to the mean - when someone's numbers are that ridiculously high (or low), usually they wind up moving more towards the middle the following year.

[BananaB]

36 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

In the 13 seconds game, the Chiefs defense gave up 3 TD's in 3 minutes.  When the Chiefs offense was putting up points, their defense kept giving it up to us.

 

Do you think it's a lot harder to beat Patrick Mahomes with 3 out of your top 4 linebackers out and the one that played, Dodson, was playing through an injury?  Not to mention, 2 starters out in the secondary in Rapp and Benford.  Rapp was our back up safety already so we were down to our 3rd safety.  I would be disappointed in the Bills offense if they didn't put up points if the Chiefs were missing McDuffie, Nick Nolton, Willie Gay, Justin Reid and Mike Edwards in that game.  

 

Allen didn't have control over that or the Diggs drop.  That's not the point.  The point is Mahomes is considered the better QB just because he has the hardware and Allen doesn't.  Regardless if Allen is more talented.  You are measured by championships....that was my point.

So the time they fold our D fold more. Got it

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think there is almost zero chance Shakir's efficiency holds with a higher target share. The WGR morning show was talking about it last week. Sure his catch % may stay high, but when you are talking about the relatively middling volume of targets he had last year then breaking a couple of big plays from the slot skew the figures and his yards per reception get inflated. 

 

Yeah, GB, that's the fear.  

 

A look at 2023separation:

 

Kincaid    4.1

Shakir      3.8

Diggs       2.8

Davis       2.8

 

What I want is for that list to tell me is that we lost the right guys.   Kincaid and Shakir got more open than Diggs and Davis and gave Josh easier completions.  

 

But that might not be the case.   First of all, separation is a wonky, subjective stat.  Secondly, Diggs attracted more defensive attention than Kincaid or Shakir.  

 

Still, I do find the separation stats a bit encouraging, maybe because I'm a homer.   And the homer in me hopes the tweaks Brady is adding to the offense compensate for Diggs' departure.  

 

 

Edited August 15 by hondo in seattle