I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Kirby Jackson]

19 minutes ago, Avisan said:

I mentioned this earlier in the thread-- it just isn't a very productive line of conversation?  I think our passing offense will rank top 10, production-wise, and that's more or less all I care about.  I think we have 4 players that are proven NFL-caliber players, plus Coleman and Claypool, and if either of them pan out we have a top 16 group and if they both pan out we have a top 12 group.  If neither pan out we have a top 28 group.  The degree of uncertainty with Coleman and Claypool limits the fruitfulness of the conversation.  I think the Bills can have solid production with the current group, though.

Who are the 11 teams better in a best case scenario? Who are the rest if we are top 16? 
 

The problem that some of us are struggling with is that no one is going on record with the teams. Obviously no one will say that the Bills have better pass catchers than SF but waiting for someone to (incorrectly) say that they are better than Atlanta or someone like that.

[Mikey152]

32 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If there is a “notion to the contrary” someone should list the teams lower and support it. We are seeing a bunch of “they are better than Warren Sharp’s ranking” but no one is stepping up and listing the teams that they are better than. That doesn’t feel right. I have them bottom 3 with New England and LA Chargers. 

I'll tell you what, since you seem hellbent on this idea.

 

Pick any team outside the Top 9 on Sharp's list and I will make a rational argument on why the Bills have a better receiver/TE group than that team. I looked at them and think it could be done.

 

 

[Avisan]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

4 proven NFL calibre players.... possibly (depends how you treat Hollins but I certainly agree with 3). Zero who are proven even as true #2 receivers. We have three proven #3s. 

Hollins was targeted 94 times in a meh 2022 Raiders offense and was good for 7.34 yards per target, he can do it if called upon.  We're in a good spot if he ends up as our #5 or #6.

Edited July 23 by Avisan
Wrong year

[Avisan]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

but waiting for someone to (incorrectly) say that they are better than Atlanta or someone like that.

I mean this is exactly why the conversation isn't happening, it's all just vibes at this point until the season starts, and why I described it as a glorified poo-flinging contest to go down this road.  If Claypool and Coleman both struggle it's a rough group.  If they both perform well it's a good group.  If one of them performs well it's a solid group.  The Bills' room is currently tough to quantify and has a ton of uncertainty, which isn't inherently bad, but understandably yields their current ranking of bottom quarter.

[Mikey152]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Who are the 11 teams better in a best case scenario? Who are the rest if we are top 16? 
 

The problem that some of us are struggling with is that no one is going on record with the teams. Obviously no one will say that the Bills have better pass catchers than SF but waiting for someone to (incorrectly) say that they are better than Atlanta or someone like that.

Let's start with Atlanta, since you named them.

 

Mack Hollins was second on that team in catches and yards last season. He might not even see the field on this team. Pitts and Mooney had 1000 yard seasons in 2021, but haven't really come close since. Honestly, outside of Drake London, Pitts and Mooney (and I guess Rondale Moore from college)...I don't even really know anything about the other guys on their roster aside from the fact that they have like zero production and were late picks or undrafted.

 

And yet, they are #16 on the list. So clearly the #1's are getting a lot of weight and London is seen as an up and comer who just needs a QB. 

 

I'd call TE a wash, I definitely think Samuel is better than Mooney, and the Bills go way deeper. So it really comes down to Drake London, I guess.

Edited July 23 by Mikey152

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:

personally take issue with the idea that the Bills WR group isn't talented. That's just false. Strictly from a physical perspective (using something like RAS score) I am certain they rank higher than 28, for example

Okay. What 5 teams do they rank higher than?

[Kirby Jackson]

48 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I'll tell you what, since you seem hellbent on this idea.

 

Pick any team outside the Top 9 on Sharp's list and I will make a rational argument on why the Bills have a better receiver/TE group than that team. I looked at them and think it could be done.

 

 

Okay, all of them, go…

[Kirby Jackson]

45 minutes ago, Avisan said:

I mean this is exactly why the conversation isn't happening, it's all just vibes at this point until the season starts, and why I described it as a glorified poo-flinging contest to go down this road.  If Claypool and Coleman both struggle it's a rough group.  If they both perform well it's a good group.  If one of them performs well it's a solid group.  The Bills' room is currently tough to quantify and has a ton of uncertainty, which isn't inherently bad, but understandably yields their current ranking of bottom quarter.

Those sound like excuses. We can look at the talent, pedigree and resumes of every team and compare them. That’s what Sharp did. That’s what people do at this time of year. The reason that some are shy to do it is because it isn’t impressive comparatively. None of us would hesitate to stack Josh’s talent, pedigree and resume against his peers. That’s because he will show as elite. 

[Mikey152]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Those sound like excuses. We can look at the talent, pedigree and resumes of every team and compare them. That’s what Sharp did. That’s what people do at this time of year. The reason that some are shy to do it is because it isn’t impressive comparatively. None of us would hesitate to stack Josh’s talent, pedigree and resume against his peers. That’s because he will show as elite. 

Ok, I hear you...

 

Let's talk about Chase Claypool for a minute. 

 

Former Second round pick. Had over 1000 yards and 13 TDs his senior year at ND. 9.98 RAS score (Same as AD Mitchell, who was tops in the 2024 class). First two years in the NFL he had just over 100 targets for over 800 yards each season. Then, Big Ben retires. Steelers draft Pickens. Claypool gets traded to the Bears who can't pass to save their lives. Then he gets traded again to Miami, who runs a ton of motion and doesn't really use a traditional X. Has a terrible year and is labeled a headcase.

 

Maybe he is trash. But he is extremely talented trash. No injury history and still young. A guy like that could have significant impact on where our WR wind up at the end of the year. Realistically he could be a star or not make the team. High variance. Makes it hard to rate the Bills reliably. Their best case and worst case are wildly divergent. Worst case, nobody steps up and we are a team full of #3 receivers. Best case, we have one of the biggest and most athletic receiver cores in the NFL that dominates man coverage, especially in the playoffs when teams get grabby.

Edited July 23 by Mikey152

[Low Positive]

I hesitate to post this, but am I the only member of Bills Mafia who still thinks trading Diggs, who was under contract, was a monumentally stupid idea and will keep this team from contending this year? At the time, I said that Beane had better have a plan. If that plan was MVS and Claypool, he needed to come up with a better one.  

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

Gabe had that big game against KC, Stef was hitting the weight room, McKenzie had that breakout game against the Patriots...I just don't think we thought we needed a guy, but we did draft Shakir. They were clearly wrong

 

So just to be clear - you recognize that the team (and yourself) made a mistake assuming the best case scenario for each of their WRs, and assuming a perfectly linear uptick from their targets to their yards.

 

Yet you are now extremely confident that players like Shakir and Samuel are in fact going to do that same thing you were wrong about before?

 

Sounds like you already understand exactly why most of us are concerned. You're just deciding to believe in the best case scenario. Which is fine, clearly that is part of your definition of "being a fan" (as you've openly admitted). I just don't understand why you're pretending like your opinion is in any way convincing or supported by evidence to people that are trying to evaluate the room objectively.

 

If you want to just say "I'm choosing to be optimistic and wait to see what happens before being concerned," by all means feel free to do that. It just makes for a poor discussion.

[Mikey152]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

So just to be clear - you recognize that the team (and yourself) made a mistake assuming the best case scenario for each of their WRs, and assuming a perfectly linear uptick from their targets to their yards.

 

Yet you are now extremely confident that players like Shakir and Samuel are in fact going to do that same thing you were wrong about before?

 

Sounds like you already understand exactly why most of us are concerned. You're just deciding to believe in the best case scenario. Which is fine, clearly that is part of your definition of "being a fan" (as you've openly admitted). I just don't understand why you're pretending like your opinion is in any way convincing or supported by evidence to people that are trying to evaluate the room objectively.

 

If you want to just say "I'm choosing to be optimistic and wait to see what happens before being concerned," by all means feel free to do that. It just makes for a poor discussion.

I wouldn't say I am optimistic or pessimistic. I don't really have a prediction and I don't know if it will work out. I just see how it could, and I don't think it is that unreasonable.

 

Listen, if the Bills were a bad team with a poor offensive line, a middling QB and zero recent success, I could understand a more cynical take on the matter. But we have a good offensive line, one of the best QBs in the NFL, and above average receiving threats at TE and RB. 

 

I understand your "realism" but I firmly believe that what you see as realism is just years of disappointment manifesting itself. For all the Bills success over the last 5 years, they don't really have anything to show for it and nothing they did this offseason screams championship on the surface. But, if you are honest with yourself, what was the big complaints about our receivers?  Too small, too slow, and too many drops. Well, they didn't sign any pro bowlers...but they did get a lot bigger and faster and the catch rates are better (tbd if it stays that way). And they did that while eating a 31 million dollar cap hit instead of featuring Diggs. I just think it could be a lot worse and maybe you should see what happens first...There's plenty of time to be pissed about things you can't control.

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

But we have a good offensive line, one of the best QBs in the NFL, and above average receiving threats at TE and RB. 

 

There is one position you conspicuously didn't mention here. Hint: it's mentioned in the subject title of the thread.

[HappyDays]

23 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

But, if you are honest with yourself, what was the big complaints about our receivers?

 

The complaint is not about any one specific factor. The complaint is that since 2021 the team has not made surrounding Josh Allen with as much offensive talent as possible the singular priority and focus of the organization. Quite the opposite in fact. It has been shown that they have invested in the position less than 30 teams. Even if you want to count Kincaid as a WR we still would rank much lower than just about every other franchise. They have not made a serious attempt to lead the franchise to glory by taking the easiest path which is giving their most important asset the most support possible. This is pretty much undeniable no matter how you want to look at it.

[Mikey152]

33 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

There is one position you conspicuously didn't mention here. Hint: it's mentioned in the subject title of the thread.

I left WR out specifically because we are talking about WR. The point is, the rest of the offense is pretty good. A rising tide lifts all boats.

24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The complaint is not about any one specific factor. The complaint is that since 2021 the team has not made surrounding Josh Allen with as much offensive talent as possible the singular priority and focus of the organization. Quite the opposite in fact. It has been shown that they have invested in the position less than 30 teams. Even if you want to count Kincaid as a WR we still would rank much lower than just about every other franchise. They have not made a serious attempt to lead the franchise to glory by taking the easiest path which is giving their most important asset the most support possible. This is pretty much undeniable no matter how you want to look at it.

Football is a team sport. You don't just support your QB with WR.

Edited July 23 by Mikey152

[Kirby Jackson]

3 hours ago, Avisan said:

I mean this is exactly why the conversation isn't happening, it's all just vibes at this point until the season starts, and why I described it as a glorified poo-flinging contest to go down this road.  If Claypool and Coleman both struggle it's a rough group.  If they both perform well it's a good group.  If one of them performs well it's a solid group.  The Bills' room is currently tough to quantify and has a ton of uncertainty, which isn't inherently bad, but understandably yields their current ranking of bottom quarter.

Is it safe to say that the Commanders may be as good at QB as the Bills by that logic? It’s just vibes but unknown on the Commanders end. They took an ultra-productive QB. We don’t know if he will be the best QB in the league, average or bad. He’s more likely to be elite than the Bills WRs based on talent, pedigree and resume. 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

Ok, I hear you...

 

Let's talk about Chase Claypool for a minute. 

 

Former Second round pick. Had over 1000 yards and 13 TDs his senior year at ND. 9.98 RAS score (Same as AD Mitchell, who was tops in the 2024 class). First two years in the NFL he had just over 100 targets for over 800 yards each season. Then, Big Ben retires. Steelers draft Pickens. Claypool gets traded to the Bears who can't pass to save their lives. Then he gets traded again to Miami, who runs a ton of motion and doesn't really use a traditional X. Has a terrible year and is labeled a headcase.

 

Maybe he is trash. But he is extremely talented trash. No injury history and still young. A guy like that could have significant impact on where our WR wind up at the end of the year. Realistically he could be a star or not make the team. High variance. Makes it hard to rate the Bills reliably. Their best case and worst case are wildly divergent. Worst case, nobody steps up and we are a team full of #3 receivers. Best case, we have one of the biggest and most athletic receiver cores in the NFL that dominates man coverage, especially in the playoffs when teams get grabby.

Thank you for leaning in. I believe the ceiling to be significantly lower than you do. It’s a bunch of number 3’s and a lottery ticket that never has gotten separation. If Coleman is St. Brown or AJ Brown, that changes things. If he’s a Gabe replacement, they are significantly worse than last year. 
 

I’m especially down on Claypool as I have a close friend who is a scout at the Bears. He called him a “cancer” and said, “he was one of the worst guys that he has seen in a locker room.” This friend played 7 years in the NFL. His text, the moment the Bills signed him was “Claypool 🤮.” He said, “we sent him home and got better.” I clearly have some bias against him but not without context. He has ability. I think the odds of him being good again are about 10%. He’s more likely to be a disaster than a quality player.

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

Let's start with Atlanta, since you named them.

 

Mack Hollins was second on that team in catches and yards last season. He might not even see the field on this team. Pitts and Mooney had 1000 yard seasons in 2021, but haven't really come close since. Honestly, outside of Drake London, Pitts and Mooney (and I guess Rondale Moore from college)...I don't even really know anything about the other guys on their roster aside from the fact that they have like zero production and were late picks or undrafted.

 

And yet, they are #16 on the list. So clearly the #1's are getting a lot of weight and London is seen as an up and comer who just needs a QB. 

 

I'd call TE a wash, I definitely think Samuel is better than Mooney, and the Bills go way deeper. So it really comes down to Drake London, I guess.

 

2 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

Ok, I hear you...

 

Let's talk about Chase Claypool for a minute. 

 

Former Second round pick. Had over 1000 yards and 13 TDs his senior year at ND. 9.98 RAS score (Same as AD Mitchell, who was tops in the 2024 class). First two years in the NFL he had just over 100 targets for over 800 yards each season. Then, Big Ben retires. Steelers draft Pickens. Claypool gets traded to the Bears who can't pass to save their lives. Then he gets traded again to Miami, who runs a ton of motion and doesn't really use a traditional X. Has a terrible year and is labeled a headcase.

 

Maybe he is trash. But he is extremely talented trash. No injury history and still young. A guy like that could have significant impact on where our WR wind up at the end of the year. Realistically he could be a star or not make the team. High variance. Makes it hard to rate the Bills reliably. Their best case and worst case are wildly divergent. Worst case, nobody steps up and we are a team full of #3 receivers. Best case, we have one of the biggest and most athletic receiver cores in the NFL that dominates man coverage, especially in the playoffs when teams get grabby.

So let’s go back.

 

Claypool has been garbage since 2021 but he might be good.

 

Pitts and Mooney had good years in 2021 but they suck now.
 

all of this despite Mooney getting paid in FA and both Pitts and Mooney playing with the worst QBs in football. and of course, CLAYPOOL being shown the door by like 3 teams in 2 years.

 

any reason why the takes are so different except that CLAYPOOL is a Bill and those two aren’t? RAS score?

[Beck Water]

38 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Thank you for leaning in. I believe the ceiling to be significantly lower than you do. It’s a bunch of number 3’s and a lottery ticket that never has gotten separation. If Coleman is St. Brown or AJ Brown, that changes things. If he’s a Gabe replacement, they are significantly worse than last year. 
 

I’m especially down on Claypool as I have a close friend who is a scout at the Bears. He called him a “cancer” and said, “he was one of the worst guys that he has seen in a locker room.” This friend played 7 years in the NFL. His text, the moment the Bills signed him was “Claypool 🤮.” He said, “we sent him home and got better.” I clearly have some bias against him but not without context. He has ability. I think the odds of him being good again are about 10%. He’s more likely to be a disaster than a quality player.

 

This is totally fair and goes with the "past performance predicts future results" and "if someone shows you who they are, believe them" strategies.  Claypool was such a locker room meltdown mess that he got slung off of, not one, but two different teams in successive years.  That screams "player in crying need of a critical Attitude Adjustment".

The contraindicating data are that after he got slung off to the Dolphins in exchange for a 2025 6th round pick (the ultimate low-investment trade), he played roughly 40% of the ST snaps.  ST, the phase of the team where unsung players go to grind without fanfare; and, for the cost of a 2025 6th rounder the Dolphins surely wouldn't have hesitated to sling him out the door at the first hint of "locker room cold", let alone letting it progress to "locker room cancer".

 

The Bills signed him to a VSB contract May 1, so there clearly was little to no other market for his services.  (VSB: Vet salary benefit, system where player gets signed to a inimum salary contract (with a signing bonus less than $165k) and the club is allowed to count him as a 2nd year player's salary against the cap (the idea is to encourage clubs to sign veteran players).   Claypool got a signing bonus of $25k. 

 

That ought to be the ultimate ego check: the former 2nd round pick who was highly regarded his first 2 years, now getting paid less than career journeymen like Isaiah McKenzie (and, oh yeah, less than half the cap hit and 1/20th the signing bonus of vet journeyman Mack Hollins).

 

One of two things is possible:
1) people are WYSIWYG, they usually can't manage significant change, and you're Right On

2) Claypool has looked at his career trajectory, decided he doesn't want to leave the game of football like that, and gotten his head on straight, in which case your comment about his ability is relevant.

 

I would put his odds a bit higher - say 20 or 30% - but that's for no particularly great reason other than his ability to finish out the 2023 season grinding ST for the Dolphins, without causing any ripples that got into the media.  If he hadn't managed that, I'd put the odds lower than you.

Edited July 23 by Beck Water

[Avisan]

46 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Is it safe to say that the Commanders may be as good at QB as the Bills by that logic? It’s just vibes but unknown on the Commanders end. They took an ultra-productive QB. We don’t know if he will be the best QB in the league, average or bad. He’s more likely to be elite than the Bills WRs based on talent, pedigree and resume. 

Sure!  It's unlikely given the Bills have a Top 3 QB and a Top 5 overall organization, so may is doing a lot of heavy lifting, but it's possible.  I think it's extremely plausible he could end up Top 12, a la Stroud.  Not likely, but plausible.

 

In terms of likeliness, I think the Bills' WR talent comes in around #16 (one of Coleman or Claypool is productive), #28 (neither is productive), #12 (both are productive).  I think middle of the pack would be a net improvement over back-half Diggs and Davis last season.