I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Mikey152]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I felt like we were having to play balls out every single week to get over the line. You do that for 17 weeks including running Josh Allen like a battering ram at times the chances you are fully healthy and fresh for the playoffs are reduced. I think the fact our passing game wasn't close to its optimum level was limiting our margin for error. 

 

Do I think this receiver group and a passing game similar to what we got down the stretch last year could get us to 11 or 12 wins and the post season? Sure I do. Do I think it is likely to be enough to win a Championship? No. And I get the arguments about drops and miscues but those drops and miscues are part of the evaluation whether we like it or not. If they can clean those up that will help but again one of the ways to limit mistakes is with better players and I don't think the room is upgraded. 

I don't think upgrade this season was ever really realistic. Certainly not on paper, anyway. The Diggs situation pretty much destroyed any chance of that. 

2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Claypool + Hamler are nowhere near the same as double dipping.  They are players that were drafted that did not materialize into the players the team that drafted them had hoped for.  They are resurrection projects, not lotto ticket types.

 

Brady's structure of offense is handicapped by the personnel he is given.  It doesn't seem like there is much choice but to continue the dink and dunk, conservative complementary style.  While this may be Brady's preferred style, we won't be able to make a good determination of that based on what he has to work with.  

Hamler maybe...

 

But Claypool had two seasons in Pittsburgh that would indicate he is capable. Then he fell off a cliff. So he is definitely a reclamation project....I'd argue one with some merit based on his age, skill set, and performance history

Edited July 22 by Mikey152

[Kirby Jackson]

45 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I understand. The reality is, the falling out with Diggs hurts this season. 31 million and nothing to show for it.

 

So, on it's surface...probably not an ideal WR room. Certainly not looking like a top one without a miracle, at any rate. At the very least, we will need some luck for it to be good and the chances of great are slim. Having said that, I actually think they did a GREAT job under the circumstances. They built a room that could be decent, especially with JA at QB, and somehow managed to pull off more depth than last year despite having one hand tied behind their back. They also did it without mortgaging the future or significantly limiting other parts of the team.

 

Could they go more all in on this season and worry about next year next year? Maybe. I just don't think it would be wise.

 

I don't think ANYBODY here is arguing we have the best WR in the NFL. If anything, what I am struggling with on this thread is that people act like that was ever a realistic possibility. There are actually people that are mad that we didn't trade into the top 10 or spend next years money today to get some name WR demanding a trade that will cost a fortune in $ and picks.

 

So instead of saying we need to have the best receivers in the NFL, how about you tell me what they could have done, realistically, in the last two years that would have made a huge difference to our WR core without gutting the rest of the roster or destroying our cap in the next couple seasons. Everyone wants to talk about how the Chiefs drafted all these WR so they care more than the Bills...but they also traded the best WR in the NFL in his prime instead of signing him to a deal, and they won two super bowls.

I believe that once they traded Diggs, they needed to replace someone at the top of the depth chart. I believed that they needed to take one of the top 3 (even at the expense of next year’s 1) or trade for Ayiuk and pay him. It’s the 2nd or 3rd most important position on the team. The Bills have an elite QB. They should have only cared about loading up for Josh. 

[oldmanfan]

19 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Claypool + Hamler are nowhere near the same as double dipping.  They are players that were drafted that did not materialize into the players the team that drafted them had hoped for.  They are resurrection projects, not lotto ticket types.

 

Brady's structure of offense is handicapped by the personnel he is given.  It doesn't seem like there is much choice but to continue the dink and dunk, conservative complementary style.  While this may be Brady's preferred style, we won't be able to make a good determination of that based on what he has to work with.  

They are precisely the same as double dipping.  Each relies on hope and faith with the exception that guys like MVS, Claypool and Hamler have shown they can play some in the league.  Hamlet hampered because of injury, Claypool because of his head.  Either of them get straightened out they can be a big help.

 

So the question you need to answer is why you’re convinced Coleman can’t do it but a double dipped guy rounds later was going to be the guy.

Edited July 22 by oldmanfan

[Einstein's Dog]

15 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I don't think upgrade this season was ever really realistic. Certainly not on paper, anyway. The Diggs situation pretty much destroyed any chance of that. 

Hamler maybe...

 

But Claypool had two seasons in Pittsburgh that would indicate he is capable. 

Claypool is still a resurrection project, he has been with multiple teams and has not stuck.  A draft pick would offer a much greater level of optimism and signify more of a commitment to supplying offensive weapons than the dumpster diving that they did.  A late 3rd or 4th round pick would IMO be much more exciting than MVS/Claypool/Hamler.

 

If the FO knew an upgrade this season was not realistic it would have been much better to double dip - see SF (and they have a much better WR room).

[Mikey152]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I believe that once they traded Diggs, they needed to replace someone at the top of the depth chart. I believed that they needed to take one of the top 3 (even at the expense of next year’s 1) or trade for Ayiuk and pay him. It’s the 2nd or 3rd most important position on the team. The Bills have an elite QB. They should have only cared about loading up for Josh. 

I don't think they could do that this season without SEVERELY handicapping themselves in other ways...either trading next years first pick (at least) or maybe even two, and in the case of Aiyuk they would also need to structure a contract that severely hampers what they can do in coming seasons (and this one, if we are honest).

 

Rob Peter to pay Paul. They already spend a ton on WR in both money and assets. Getting a top WR isn't so important that you just tank your team. They likely would have just done more to keep Diggs in that case...that was the best case scenario.

9 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Claypool is still a resurrection project, he has been with multiple teams and has not stuck.  A draft pick would offer a much greater level of optimism and signify more of a commitment to supplying offensive weapons than the dumpster diving that they did.  A late 3rd or 4th round pick would IMO be much more exciting than MVS/Claypool/Hamler.

 

If the FO knew an upgrade this season was not realistic it would have been much better to double dip - see SF (and they have a much better WR room).

Maybe for the fans...but on the field? Anybody they got in a later round wasn't going to be as good as those guys this season...and they wouldn't have the pick from that round to boot.

 

Flat out...if they can fix Claypool he is better than all but maybe the top 3 from this draft. In their opinion, signing him and drafting another position was better than drafting a WR and signing a DT/RB. We will see if they were right.

Edited July 22 by Mikey152

[oldmanfan]

21 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Claypool is still a resurrection project, he has been with multiple teams and has not stuck.  A draft pick would offer a much greater level of optimism and signify more of a commitment to supplying offensive weapons than the dumpster diving that they did.  A late 3rd or 4th round pick would IMO be much more exciting than MVS/Claypool/Hamler.

 

If the FO knew an upgrade this season was not realistic it would have been much better to double dip - see SF (and they have a much better WR room).

When you get into the lower rounds on day 3 I suspect Beane would tell you they go by what player ranks highest on their board at that time.  Sometimes like with Shakir it’s a WR and that’s working out well.  Sometimes a LB like Milano.  Sometimes you never see the guy on the field -I’m thinking that will be Shorter.

[Mikey152]

29 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I believe that once they traded Diggs, they needed to replace someone at the top of the depth chart. I believed that they needed to take one of the top 3 (even at the expense of next year’s 1) or trade for Ayiuk and pay him. It’s the 2nd or 3rd most important position on the team. The Bills have an elite QB. They should have only cared about loading up for Josh. 

 

It is funny how times change...I remember when Matt Millen was DESTROYED for taking WR high. When the Bills were crazy for trading up for a WR. 

 

Trading tons of assets and money for a WR is NOT conventional and is NOT universally considered a good idea. Honestly, it feels very "fantasy football" to me in a lot of ways. So maybe that is the real debate...it's not really about who these receivers are so much as who they aren't. Some of us are amazed at what they bought with the money they had, and others wanted them to bust out the credit card and mortgage the future. That's the real debate.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

It is funny how times change...I remember when Matt Millen was DESTROYED for taking WR high. When the Bills were crazy for trading up for a WR. 

 

Trading tons of assets and money for a WR is NOT conventional and is NOT universally considered a good idea. Honestly, it feels very "fantasy football" to me in a lot of ways. So maybe that is the real debate...it's not really about who these receivers are so much as who they aren't. Some of us are amazed at what they bought with the money they had, and others wanted them to bust out the credit card and mortgage the future. That's the real debate.

 

 

 

In fairness the NFL HAS changed since Matt Millen was GM of the Lions. Millen was hammered for taking three in consecutive years in the first round AND reaching to do so. Famously in 2005 the top player on Detroit's entire draft board was DeMarcus Ware. When they went on the clock at #10 who was sitting there? Ware. Then they changed their mind in the draft room and thought one more receiver would turn Harrington into a franchise QB. This was all pretty well documented after he left Detroit. 

[Einstein's Dog]

34 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Maybe for the fans...but on the field? Anybody they got in a later round wasn't going to be as good as those guys this season...and they wouldn't have the pick from that round to boot.

 

Flat out...if they can fix Claypool he is better than all but maybe the top 3 from this draft. In their opinion, signing him and drafting another position was better than drafting a WR and signing a DT/RB. We will see if they were right.

It shouldn't just be for this season, that is one of the problems that is catching up to this FO.  A double dip on the WR was to help the future state of the WR room - along with solidifying their bet that they hit on one for this year - kind of like the Elam then Benford double dip

 

The "fix" is a huge portion of the Claypool problem.  And they could of double dipped and picked up the dumpster dive priced Claypool.

 

Yes, the FO thought drafting the DT/RB and others over a WR was a good idea.  It is this low prioritization of the WR room that I (and many others) are having problems with.  And lets not forget they ended the draft with extra capital that they convert to carrying over to next year, in an extra 4th.

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

That is great. You are certainly entitled to this opinion. I'm not trying to force you to accept mine. 

 

I will however say that there are examples of coaches having the final say in the draft. Pete Carroll, Belichick, and Parcells come to mind.

 

Tell me, do you think that Beane and McDermott have 100% equal authority to make a draft selection? Obviously this would seem impossible. If one of them does have more power (even if it is 51% - 49%) who would you think could make the final decision?

 

No disrespect, but those 3 coaches signed deals with GM powers, they are not an example of any kind to a traditional HC and GM role.  If Head Coaches had that kind of control then Carrol, Belichick, and Parcells wouldn't have to have it put in their contracts as part of their roles.  

 

Andy Reid also had GM powers in Philly as part of his contract, and it is why he got fired because he was a terrible GM and when he was out looking for another job he had to make clear he was not going to need GM powers again or he wouldn't have gotten hired.  And currently, Belichick has had to do the same, to make clear he is not searching for a job where he is both HC with GM powers again because he is not seen as a good GM.

 

McD has final say on the field, and Beane has final say on personnel.  Not only is this contractually their relationship, they both have at length talked very open about it over the years.  Still have doubts, well there is hours of draft room footage over the years that confirm it is Beane's show.  

 

Everyone is entitled to their opinion of course, but honestly not really sure this is an opinion situation, it just isn't the case with McD and Beane.

Edited July 22 by Alphadawg7

[Einstein's Dog]

34 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

When you get into the lower rounds on day 3 I suspect Beane would tell you they go by what player ranks highest on their board at that time.  Sometimes like with Shakir it’s a WR and that’s working out well.  Sometimes a LB like Milano.  Sometimes you never see the guy on the field -I’m thinking that will be Shorter.

I thought Beane had said it was the other way around, that need became more of a factor in the later rounds.  Beane says a lot, so both could have been said.

 

In any event, what a coincidence that all their highest ranking players fit needs for the team - WR/S/DT/RB/C/LB/DE/OT/CB.  Wow, got lucky there.

 

 

[Billl]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think it will because I think this entire conversation about the WR room, without taking into account other potential weapons, is a bit silly to be honest.  You have a very good young TE in Kincaid and a guy in Knox who has been productive in his career (although his propensity for drops on easy catches drives me crazy).  It would be like having a conversation about the Chiefs receiving ability and leaving out Kelce.  I also think we'll see Cook and Davis involved in the passing game.

Is there a single pass catcher on this roster, regardless of position, that you would feel good about if they put up the same numbers in 2024 as they did in 2023?

Samuel: 613 yards, 4 TDs

Kincaid:  673/2

Shakir: 611/2

Knox: 186/2

MVS: 315/1

Hollins:  251/0

Claypool:  77/1

Cook:  445/4

 

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

how about you tell me what they could have done, realistically, in the last two years that would have made a huge difference to our WR core without gutting the rest of the roster or destroying our cap in the next couple seasons.

 

DeAndre Hopkins

[Alphadawg7]

On 7/20/2024 at 9:51 AM, FireChans said:

 

Not having one would be catastrophic, but it would be the worst case scenario, just like the group being good would require the best case scenario.

 

To have zero in the top 32 would mean that Kincaid ends up a bust, Coleman is a bust, and every other lotto ticket is a complete flameout or the entire group is basically hurt all year.

 

If the Bills distribution ends up the way you have it there, I would expect a bad offense relative to our expectations and an early playoff exit in our future. And having a bunch of guys putting up top 40-50 production with Josh Allen throwing them the football would be reprehensible. That distribution is “one guy is better than Gabe Davis and everyone else is worse.” GROSS.

 

Couple of things...I have been seeing this whole "top 32" conversation going on for a while amongst multiple posters since one certain poster introduced it.  But what does it take to be in the top 32 on average?

 

Last 3 years (prior to that it was 16 game seasons, so only last 3 years are equal comparisons)

In 2023, the 32nd was Rice with 938 and 31st was Hockenson with 960 (Kelce, who was referenced with Rice had 984 at 29th)

In 2022, the 32nd was Donovan People Jones with 839 and 31st was Mark Andrews with 847

In 2021, the 32nd was Jakobi Meyers with 866 and 31st was AJ Brown with 869.

 

That means the average yardage needed over the past 3 seasons for 2 players to finish in the top 32 is 881 yards (32nd) and 892 (31st)

 

Ok...now we actually know what needs to happen to have "2 top 32" players.  So do you really think that the Bills having 2 players finish above 881 yards is that implausible this year while Josh Allen is the QB of this franchise?  

 

Diggs and Davis alone ate up 241 targets by themselves last season.  With those facts, the following still occured:

• Kincaid has the 4th most receptions (73) and 10th most yards (673) for a rookie TE in NFL history...and he missed a game last year.
• Shakir put up 611 yards on just 38 rec on only 45 targets...and he was barely used first third of the season.

So those 2 returning targets are now going to see a decent chunk of those 241 departed targets.  

Kincaid - He only needs 208 more yards (and that is before you factor in him missing a game last year) this year to hit that min average to be in the top 32.

Shakir - He only needs 270 more yards to do the same this year.  

 

Which of those above is crazy?   Not only is neither crazy, but I would argue that its both plausible and expected that Kincaid should put up another 200+ yards this year min with the increased targets he will see.  And same for Shakir because no one expects him to be seeing only 45 targets again and it is quite possible his targets double or more this season.  So is 270 more yards for him really that much a stretch of the imagination?  

 

Additional facts about the current group:

• Samuel last time under Brady and with a bad QB put up 77 rec and 851 yards (in a 16 game season, meaning in a 17 game season he would have been top 32)
• Keon is a better prospect than Gabe Davis was coming out of college, yet Davis put up 600 yards as a rookie who wasn't a full time starter.  So if Keon starts all year, is putting up 280 more yards than Gabe did as a rookie that much an impossibility?  
• We have Josh Allen.  I don't need to list all his accolades as a QB, we can all agree he is elite.  

Everything is an opinion right now...but I don't get why this "top 32" convo has become such a big deal here, it means we had 2 guys roughly around 880-900 yards.  We have 2 ascending players who don't need much of an expanded role to hit those, we have 2 guys who have done it already before in Samuel and Claypool as well to factor in, and a promising Rookie where getting to 900 yards for a starting rookie WR isn't a crazy thought on its own right.  

 

How anyone can talk like this is some impossibility is beyond me.  Is it a sure thing...nope...but I do think its more plausible than not.  

 

 

On 7/20/2024 at 9:51 AM, FireChans said:

 

I don’t want to see Josh have a regular season like Mahomes did last year. I don’t think that is the way to succeed, because we don’t have the horses to turn it on in the playoffs and we don’t have the defense like they did last year. 

 

This I agree with...I don't trust our defense the way KC's defense played for them last year as one of the best in the league and Chris Jones literally closed out multiple playoff games for them including ours and the Super Bowl.  

Edited July 22 by Alphadawg7

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Is there a single pass catcher on this roster, regardless of position, that you would feel good about if they put up the same numbers in 2024 as they did in 2023?

Samuel: 613 yards, 4 TDs

Kincaid:  673/2

Shakir: 611/2

Knox: 186/2

MVS: 315/1

Hollins:  251/0

Claypool:  77/1

Cook:  445/4

 

 

 

 

No.  I expect several to improve including Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid.  

[FireChans]

25 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Couple of things...I have been seeing this whole "top 32" conversation going on for a while amongst multiple posters since one certain poster introduced it.  But what does it take to be in the top 32 on average?

 

Last 3 years (prior to that it was 16 game seasons, so only last 3 years are equal comparisons)

In 2023, the 32nd was Rice with 938 and 31st was Hockenson with 960 (Kelce, who was referenced with Rice had 984 at 29th)

In 2022, the 32nd was Donovan People Jones with 839 and 31st was Mark Andrews with 847

In 2021, the 32nd was Jakobi Meyers with 866 and 31st was AJ Brown with 869.

 

That means the average yardage needed over the past 3 seasons for 2 players to finish in the top 32 is 881 yards (32nd) and 892 (31st)

 

Ok...now we actually know what needs to happen to have "2 top 32" players.  So do you really think that the Bills having 2 players finish above 881 yards is that implausible this year while Josh Allen is the QB of this franchise?  

 

Diggs and Davis alone ate up 241 targets by themselves last season.  With those facts, the following still occured:

• Kincaid has the 4th most receptions (73) and 10th most yards (673) for a rookie TE in NFL history...and he missed a game last year.
• Shakir put up 611 yards on just 38 rec on only 45 targets...and he was barely used first third of the season.

So those 2 returning targets are now going to see a decent chunk of those 241 departed targets.  

Kincaid - He only needs 208 more yards (and that is before you factor in him missing a game last year) this year to hit that min average to be in the top 32.

Shakir - He only needs 270 more yards to do the same this year.  

 

Which of those above is crazy?   Not only is neither crazy, but I would argue that its both plausible and expected that Kincaid should put up another 200+ yards this year min with the increased targets he will see.  And same for Shakir because no one expects him to be seeing only 45 targets again and it is quite possible his targets double or more this season.  So is 270 more yards for him really that much a stretch of the imagination?  

 

Additional facts about the current group:

• Samuel last time under Brady and with a bad QB put up 77 rec and 851 yards (in a 16 game season, meaning in a 17 game season he would have been top 32)
• Keon is a better prospect than Gabe Davis was coming out of college, yet Davis put up 600 yards as a rookie who wasn't a full time starter.  So if Keon starts all year, is putting up 280 more yards than Gabe did as a rookie that much an impossibility?  
• We have Josh Allen.  I don't need to list all his accolades as a QB, we can all agree he is elite.  

Everything is an opinion right now...but I don't get why this "top 32" convo has become such a big deal here, it means we had 2 guys roughly around 880-900 yards.  We have 2 ascending players who don't need much of an expanded role to hit those, we have 2 guys who have done it already before in Samuel and Claypool as well to factor in, and a promising Rookie where getting to 900 yards for a starting rookie WR isn't a crazy thought on its own right.  

 

How anyone can talk like this is some impossibility is beyond me.  Is it a sure thing...nope...but I do think its more plausible than not.  

 

 

 

This I agree with...I don't trust our defense the way KC's defense played for them last year as one of the best in the league and Chris Jones literally closed out multiple playoff games for them including ours and the Super Bowl.  

So do you think we will have two top 32 producers next year?

 

I think it’s possible, I don’t know about likely. We have only done it once in the last 4 seasons, and it was when Diggs was elite and Beasley was an All-Pro slot in 2020.

 

Now, the corollary is that we don’t have a Diggs soaking up the lion-share of the targets, so is it possible that we have a 29th and a 31st with those extra targets? Absolutely.

 

But as we saw with KC last year, even when one of those guys is a HoFer and and the other a promising rookie, they still had an average offense which imo is not good enough with a top 2 QB in football.

51 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

DeAndre Hopkins

We literally did this debate annually for the last few years.
 

These folks coming out of the woodwork being like, “how could the Bills have avoided coming into the season with a cast of unproven and lotto ticket red flag WR’s???” takes are driving me insane.

[Mango]

4 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

I don't think upgrade this season was ever really realistic. Certainly not on paper, anyway. The Diggs situation pretty much destroyed any chance of that. 

Hamler maybe...

 

But Claypool had two seasons in Pittsburgh that would indicate he is capable. Then he fell off a cliff. So he is definitely a reclamation project....I'd argue one with some merit based on his age, skill set, and performance history

First off, the Bills not the fans should be counting on anything from Claypool and not hesitate to cut him at the slightest whiff that he could be an issue. 
 

That said, Claypools upside is tremendous and if (BIG IF!) he can get his head on straight he has the ability to be a very good, bordering on great WR1 option.

 

Again, everybody should hope for a happy little accident on that one, and not rely on him one bit. 

[Mikey152]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

Is there a single pass catcher on this roster, regardless of position, that you would feel good about if they put up the same numbers in 2024 as they did in 2023?

Samuel: 613 yards, 4 TDs

Kincaid:  673/2

Shakir: 611/2

Knox: 186/2

MVS: 315/1

Hollins:  251/0

Claypool:  77/1

Cook:  445/4

 

 

 

 

you realize that the Bills would only throw the ball like 300 times if that happened, right?

[Alphadawg7]

32 minutes ago, FireChans said:

So do you think we will have two top 32 producers next year?

 

To directly answer this question, yes I do.  Like anyone, its just a guess though as so much is new as we all know.  I think the better quesion is...Do I think it means a whole lot...no I don't.  2 guys around 900 yards in a 17 game season with Josh Allen does not at all sound far fetched...nor impressive.  

 

I am only discussing it because this 2 in the top 32 thing has taken on a life of its own the last handful of pages here.  

 

32 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

I think it’s possible, I don’t know about likely. We have only done it once in the last 4 seasons, and it was when Diggs was elite and Beasley was an All-Pro slot in 2020.

 

Well that has more to do with the target distribution and group makeup where Cole lost a step, Gabe was splitting time for a couple years, Kincaid arrived to divide the non Diggs targets further, etc.  

 

32 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

Now, the corollary is that we don’t have a Diggs soaking up the lion-share of the targets, so is it possible that we have a 29th and a 31st with those extra targets? Absolutely.

 

And remember it is 241 targets to redistribute just from Diggs and Davis.

 

32 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

But as we saw with KC last year, even when one of those guys is a HoFer and and the other a promising rookie, they still had an average offense which imo is not good enough with a top 2 QB in football.

 

I do agree with you about this.  Which is why I am kind of just like why all this wasted energy about 2 guys in the top 32...that doesn't really mean much, it won't take much to make happen most likely based on the 3 year averages to do so since going to 17 game seasons.  

 

So if you were to ask me...yes I do think we will have 2 in the top 32.  But I also think that tells me nothing about the quality of our offense.  If one guy has 1250 yards, and another has 1075 yards...odds are, we might still have a pretty good offense.  But if that was we had one guy get 907 yards and another 892 yards with the other guys lagging further behind in the 300-600 range...well then I think the offense is not going to be good enough because we won't likely have a D like KC had last year to be able to still win a SB with the offense they had.  

 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

DeAndre Hopkins

And Kirk the yr before