I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[NoHuddleKelly12]

On 7/18/2024 at 8:40 PM, Beck Water said:

 

Dang then I had to look it up.

 

@NoHuddleKelly12 coined it

 

 

 

 

I never understood why Edwards-Helaire didn't get more touches last season vs Pacheco.  Edwards-Helaire was a 1st round pick and KC just rocks at drafting.

In turn I have to credit one of my firm’s partners with that phrase, who used it to describe the Georgia Bulldogs’ cupcake non conference schedule a few years back…🤣

[BADOLBILZ]

36 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't know how you can say that my take that *both* the people who claim almost definitively we're in great shape and will be good *and* the people who claim almost definitively we're in terrible shape and are doomed, before even a single snap of Training Camp has occured, are getting carried away - makes me a homer.

 

I've said each side may be right or wrong. We won't know for sure until we see it. Let's just stop calling each other "idiots".

 

 

Did you have anything to share on the TOPIC in this thread?    Or are you going to stand on your unconvincing opinions on the WR group from earlier in the offseason?

 

It's ONE topic for debate on a message board..........you don't have to read it.........it doesn't have to have a resolution...........nor does WR discussion need to be stopped until some arbitrary date because it bothers you.

 

It sure as f#ck isn't going to be resolved by watching practices.   Two of the best practice WR in the McDermott era were Ray Ray McCloud in 2019 and Jake Kumerow in 2021.    We will know how the WR corps worked out when the season is over.......just like everything else about the team........so should we suspend all Bills discussion until then or no?  

 

[Mikey152]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t think that the Chiefs WRs are great but the effort is there. They drafted one in the first this year. They traded for a guy that was drafted in the first this year. They traded for a guy drafted in the first last year. They drafted WRs in the 2nd last year and the year before. The Chiefs have 5 WRs drafted in the 1st or 2nd. They’ve tried to find high end talent. 

 

I’m not counting TEs in this WR discussion. 

You do realize the Bills traded for, signed or drafted four WR drafted in the first or second round THIS offseason, right?

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah my bad I didn't notice that you had just randomly changed the number for some reason.

 

Though you should better clarify what you mean by "no receivers in the top 28"..........that's why I said players not "receivers".........because Rashee Rice DID finish 28th among all NFL WR in receiving yards.

 

Rice was, by definition a "WR1" in terms of production.

 

The number 32 is a reference to the fact that there are 32 teams.   It's not an arbitrary number.

 

Typically only 4-5 teams end up 2 players in the top 32 in receiving and it is, not coincidentally,  always a very good group of teams.    

Dude, you are wild.  The way you so seamlessly add TE and then take them out again in the same post is a work of art. 
 

 

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

@BillsFanForever19 is one of the homers who wants to shout down the discussion.    It's like stages of grief for them.   I think they've all tried the same tactics.   Make ridiculous statements.........question people's fandom.........question the thread.   Idiots gonna' idiot.   

 

There are no simple answers on this WR issue.  On paper, it's ugly.

 

1) Could this be the year that they finally have a true breakout star at WR?   Coleman?  But there has NEVER been one in 6 years with Josh Allen.  

 

2) Is this year that a WR that showed great promise in limited exposure like Shakir is able to do the same as a full time starter?   Didn't happen with any of the predecessors.

 

3) To points 1 and 2.........Everybody who's approached 1,000 yards with Allen had been an 800-1,000 yard receiver elsewhere prior to that in the NFL.

 

4)  Is this the year that a dumpster dive receiver turns his career around with Allen?   They are batting .000 on those under Beane.  

 

 

On paper (all we really have at this time of year) it is ugly. But not nearly as ugly as you're painting it!

 

To your points:

1) Robert Foster, who absolutely crapped out of the league within three years, had 541 yards receiving in his rookie year under Allen. On the other side of that coin, as has been stated numerous times in this thread, numerous receiver's yards increased significantly under Allen. Diggs' production jumped from 1,130 yards in Min, to 1,535 under Allen in his first season. Diggs went from the 44th ranked WR in '19 in Minnesota, to the #1 ranked WR in '20. Khalil Shakir's numbers jumped from 161 yards in his '22 rookie season, to 611 in '23. And that was as a #3WR. And if you don't want to accept any of those examples as "breakout star" numbers, then you will also have to admit that what you want to define as a "breakout star" doesn't occur on a team that already has an elite star like Stefon Diggs, who was ranked 1st, 9th, 4th, and 7th in his four years in Buffalo, respectively.

 

2) This is a pretty convoluted standard, and "showed great promise" is utterly subjective. Could you say that Cole Beasley, who never started more than six games in a season (and only once) in seven years in Dallas "showed great promise" before becoming the Bills' starting #2WR? 

 

3) This is the most pessimistic part of your post. The Bills have had a 1,000+ yard WR every year since '19-- Allen's second season. I'm not going to dig into every year since then, but two teams had more than one WR with 1,000+ yards last season: Miami (Hill, Waddle), and Philadelphia (AJ Brown, DaVonte Smith). Hill, and Brown obviously had 1,000+ yard seasons before arriving at their current teams. Waddle was drafted 6th overall, and Smith was drafted 10th overall. 

 

But what really makes this non-point utterly pessimistic is that it completely ignores the jump in production that numerous WRs have made under Allen by applying an arbitrary metric. 

 

4) We all know what you mean by a "dumpster dive receiver." Unfortunately, I don't believe there are any sites that post stat-lines for "dumpster dive receivers." But, there have been WRs, who had some level of production under Allen, whom once they left, went straight into the dumpster. McKenzie went from 482 yards in '22, to 81 yards in '23. I guess we can all watch what kind of numbers Davis puts up in Jax.

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

You do realize the Bills traded for, signed or drafted four WR drafted in the first or second round THIS offseason, right?

 

Who did we sign or trade for that was drafted in the first round?  I musta blinked and missed it

Samuel is a 2nd round pick who has performed consistently in his career.  So there's that.

 

The thing is, when you take a shot on a 2nd round pick like Claypool who started out well but after his first two years has been kicked around like a playground milk carton, or a 2nd round pick like KJ Hamler who had an OK year as a rookie but has barely been able to play since due to injury - you're really taking a "rifle shot".  It's not like the guy is a 2nd round pick who has to prove himself, these are guys who have had 4 years to figure it out and haven't been able to.  

I will say that the same issues apply to @Kirby Jackson's point that KC "traded for a guy drafted in the 1st last year".  When the team that drafted a guy in the 1st is willing to ship him off for a 3rd midway through his 2nd season, that's also a "rifle shot", and Toney lived down to his billing.

[oldmanfan]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

How can you say that?   One of them was rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice.   The other is a first ballot HOF TE who also averages 15 MORE yards per game in the playoffs in his career.   

I thought we were only considering WR in this thread.  Your words.  Make up your mind.

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Typically only 4-5 teams end up 2 players in the top 32 in receiving and it is, not coincidentally,  always a very good group of teams.    

The 5-11 Panthers are definitely the exception then because under Brady they had three WR's in the top 33 - DJ Moore (11th), Robbie Anderson (15th), and Curtis Samuel (33rd).  Problem was they got little production from their TE's or RB's and Matt Rhule was the head coach.

Edited July 20 by Doc Brown

[JerseyBills]

3 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

On paper (all we really have at this time of year) it is ugly. But not nearly as ugly as you're painting it!

 

To your points:

1) Robert Foster, who absolutely crapped out of the league within three years, had 541 yards receiving in his rookie year under Allen. On the other side of that coin, as has been stated numerous times in this thread, numerous receiver's yards increased significantly under Allen. Diggs' production jumped from 1,130 yards in Min, to 1,535 under Allen in his first season. Diggs went from the 44th ranked WR in '19 in Minnesota, to the #1 ranked WR in '20. Khalil Shakir's numbers jumped from 161 yards in his '22 rookie season, to 611 in '23. And that was as a #3WR. And if you don't want to accept any of those examples as "breakout star" numbers, then you will also have to admit that what you want to define as a "breakout star" doesn't occur on a team that already has an elite star like Stefon Diggs, who was ranked 1st, 9th, 4th, and 7th in his four years in Buffalo, respectively.

 

2) This is a pretty convoluted standard, and "showed great promise" is utterly subjective. Could you say that Cole Beasley, who never started more than six games in a season (and only once) in seven years in Dallas "showed great promise" before becoming the Bills' starting #2WR? 

 

3) This is the most pessimistic part of your post. The Bills have had a 1,000+ yard WR every year since '19-- Allen's second season. I'm not going to dig into every year since then, but two teams had more than one WR with 1,000+ yards last season: Miami (Hill, Waddle), and Philadelphia (AJ Brown, DaVonte Smith). Hill, and Brown obviously had 1,000+ yard seasons before arriving at their current teams. Waddle was drafted 6th overall, and Smith was drafted 10th overall. 

 

But what really makes this non-point utterly pessimistic is that it completely ignores the jump in production that numerous WRs have made under Allen by applying an arbitrary metric. 

 

4) We all know what you mean by a "dumpster dive receiver." Unfortunately, I don't believe there are any sites that post stat-lines for "dumpster dive receivers." But, there have been WRs, who had some level of production under Allen, whom once they left, went straight into the dumpster. McKenzie went from 482 yards in '22, to 81 yards in '23. I guess we can all watch what kind of numbers Davis puts up in Jax.

Great and factual points. Also Bease and Brown w career years, Beasley even achieved an All Pro in 20.

 

Then we have Coleman,  like I said in the OP he's a huge part of this WR puzzle, there have been many examples of late 1st/2nd rd rookies and beyond having an immediate impact,  as well as being busts. We'll see and you can make an argument both ways , only time will tell. I see no reason he can't be at least have a productive role , especially when you look at your post and how Allen has elevated multiple WRs young and vets. 

 

Also like in OP, this is definitely should be the strongest Running game and TE room we've had, 2nd year Kincaid/Knox starts injury free, Cook showed last year he's a legit RB1 and we add an intriguing rookie to that room. 

 

I don't consider myself a homer but I'm always very optimistic anything Bills related and think this is the most well rounded, complete O under Josh. 

 

Also wouldn't be surprised to see Beane add to the room during TC if they feel Coleman needs time to develop,  again,  we have a generational talent at QB, we'll be just fine

 

 

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Who did we sign or trade for that was drafted in the first round?  I musta blinked and missed it

Samuel is a 2nd round pick who has performed consistently in his career.  So there's that.

 

The thing is, when you take a shot on a 2nd round pick like Claypool who started out well but after his first two years has been kicked around like a playground milk carton, or a 2nd round pick like KJ Hamler who had an OK year as a rookie but has barely been able to play since due to injury - you're really taking a "rifle shot".  It's not like the guy is a 2nd round pick who has to prove himself, these are guys who have had 4 years to figure it out and haven't been able to.  

I will say that the same issues apply to @Kirby Jackson's point that KC "traded for a guy drafted in the 1st last year".  When the team that drafted a guy in the 1st is willing to ship him off for a 3rd midway through his 2nd season, that's also a "rifle shot", and Toney lived down to his billing.

True about Claypool, Hamler but they're fighting for WR6 , likely inactive most weeks, as well as an unknown in Shorter. It's not like we're asking these guys to have a big time role unless they make a huge impression in tc

[Kirby Jackson]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Mahomes era Chiefs really BEGAN this idea of loading up the WR room.

 

They made Sammy Watkins one of the highest paid WR in the NFL when they already had two 1,000 yard receiving targets on their roster in Tyreek and Kelce.   Watkins didn't live up to his contract during the seasons but was excellent for them in the playoffs and sealed their first SB win by burning Richard Sherman late.   They drafted Mecole Hardman in round 2 and basically ran the Bills off the field in the 2020 AFCCG.   When they dealt Tyreek they added a deep ball specialist in the un-washed MVS and a young WR in Juju with a 1400 yard season on his record and Juju produced a top 25 receiving yardage season and sealed their 2nd SB win drawing a PI late.   The rest you mentioned.   They have tried HARD to be great at WR. 

I guess that I didn’t realize Hardman was a 2nd round pick. They have 6 WRs drafted in the 1st 2 rounds then. 

10 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

We traded for Samuel.  We drafted a guy in the top of round 2 this year.  Found a good one in round 4 in Shakir.  

So we have 5 guys picked in round 2 (including Hamler, Isabella and Claypool fighting for roster spots). They have 3 guys that were drafted in the 2nd and 3 more drafted in the 1st. They’ve committed to bringing in talent.

Edited July 20 by Kirby Jackson

[Kirby Jackson]

8 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

You do realize the Bills traded for, signed or drafted four WR drafted in the first or second round THIS offseason, right?

Dude, you are wild.  The way you so seamlessly add TE and then take them out again in the same post is a work of art. 
 

 

Hamler, Isabella and Claypool had all washed out at their previous stops (Claypool multiple spots). One of those guys MAX will make the roster. While they are in the tier with a guy like Toney, he still has a smaller resume of failure. 

Edited July 20 by Kirby Jackson

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

This is a pretty convoluted standard, and "showed great promise" is utterly subjective. Could you say that Cole Beasley, who never started more than six games in a season (and only once) in seven years in Dallas "showed great promise" before becoming the Bills' starting WR2?

Um, yes?

 

Cole Beasley was like the second or third biggest FA WR signed that year.

[Don Otreply]

10 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't know how you can say that my take that *both* the people who claim almost definitively we're in great shape and will be good *and* the people who claim almost definitively we're in terrible shape and are doomed, before even a single snap of Training Camp has occured, are getting carried away - makes me a homer.

 

I've said each side may be right or wrong. We won't know for sure until we see it. Let's just stop calling each other "idiots".

 If you don’t agree with his takes one hundred percent, it’s not worth engaging with him, he will as you mentioned start referring to others in a derogatory fashion, it’s his MO as it were, poor guy hasn’t had fun with football in ages,  best to just skip over his posting, 

[Billy Claude]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah my bad I didn't notice that you had just randomly changed the number for some reason.

 

Though you should better clarify what you mean by "no receivers in the top 28"..........that's why I said players not "receivers".........because Rashee Rice DID finish 28th among all NFL WR in receiving yards.

 

Rice was, by definition a "WR1" in terms of production.

 

The number 32 is a reference to the fact that there are 32 teams.   It's not an arbitrary number.

 

Typically only 4-5 teams end up 2 players in the top 32 in receiving and it is, not coincidentally,  always a very good group of teams.    

 

I changed the number because if someone said that last season team A had no receiver in the top 28 in receiving, the conclusion would be team A's receivers were not very good and it would be much more convincing that the receivers were good because they finished #29 and #32.

 

Having two receivers in the top 32 in receiving yards is a totally arbitrary cutoff of no particular significance.   During the 2022 season, the Bills had Diggs at #5 and Davis at #33 in receiving yards.   Are you telling me that being at #29 and #32 is a indication that a team has good receivers but #5 and #33 means that they don't?  

 

Let's face it, the Chiefs receivers were statistically bad last year.  For example, they led the league in drops.  The Chiefs clearly thought so also based on the investments they made at wide receiver this off-season.  However, if one needed to, I  think one can come up with a much more reasonable argument that the Chiefs receiving statistics did not tell the whole story:

 

Travis Kelce is a HOFer who has clearly lost a step or three, however, he can still bring it in big games in crucial situations.  Rasheed Rice was #32 in receiving yards which is very bad for a WR1 on a team, however but he was a rookie and was much better than at the end of the season than at the beginning so that data point is underestimating his contribution in the playoffs.  

 

 

Edited July 20 by Billy Claude

[FireChans]

19 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

I changed the number because if someone said that last season team A had no receiver in the top 28 in receiving, the conclusion would be team A's receivers were not very good and it would be much more convincing that the receivers were good because they finished #29 and #32.

 

Having two receivers in the top 32 in receiving yards is a totally arbitrary cutoff of no particular significance.   During the 2022 season, the Bills had Diggs at #5 and Davis at #33 in receiving yards.   Are you telling me that being at #29 and #32 is a indication that a team has good receivers but #5 and #33 means that the don't?  Obviously you must have known that the Chiefs were at #29 and #32, so constantly bringing up the results of an arbitrary cutoff while hiding the full data because it would hurt your argument appears to me to be purposely misleading.

 

Let's face it, the Chiefs receivers were statistically bad last year.  For example, they led the league in drops.  The Chiefs clearly thought so also based on the investments they made at wide receiver this off-season.  However, if one needed to, I  think one can come up with a much more reasonable argument that the Chiefs receiving statistics did not tell the whole story:

 

Travis Kelce is a HOFer who has clearly lost a step or three, however, he can still bring it in big games in crucial situations.  Rasheed Rice was #32 in receiving yards which is very bad for a WR1 on a team, however but he was a rookie and was much better than at the end of the season than at the beginning so that data point is underestimating his contribution in the playoffs.  

 

 

The 2023 Chiefs weapons sucked last year.

 

The 2024 Bills weapons are looking to surpass that level of suck.

[Billy Claude]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The 2023 Chiefs weapons sucked last year.

 

The 2024 Bills weapons are looking to surpass that level of suck.

 

I'm not disagreeing with you on either point, simply responding to badobilz argument that the Chiefs having two receivers in the top 32 in receiving yards are a big deal even if they were #29 and #32.

 

Edited July 20 by Billy Claude

[FireChans]

19 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

I'm not disagreeing with you on either point, simply responding to badobilz argument that the Chiefs having two receivers in the top 32 in receiving yards are a big deal even if they were #29 and #32.

 

I think the point he is making is that even though they were bad, they still had two productive pass catchers, which the Bills may not have this year.

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think the point he is making is that even though they were bad, they still had two productive pass catchers, which the Bills may not have this year.

Kincaid

Shakir

Samuel

 

There’s 3 minimum.  You’re being overly hyperbolic now.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Kincaid

Shakir

Samuel

 

There’s 3 minimum.  You’re being overly hyperbolic now.

Two of those 3 guys will be in the top 32 in receiving yards next year? Is that your prediction?

[oldmanfan]

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Two of those 3 guys will be in the top 32 in receiving yards next year? Is that your prediction?

That is not what you said.  You said we may have no productive receivers.  Which is just silly.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

That is not what you said.  You said we may have no productive receivers.  Which is just silly.

You won’t commit to a prediction that 2 out of 3 top weapons will be in the top 32 of receiving yards next year. 
 

What is that except for an admission that we may not have 2 productive weapons next year?

 

FYI, Kincaid was 56 in the NFL, Samuel was 65 and Shakir was 66. So I don’t blame you for refusing to commit to that take. But understand what that implies lol.

Edited July 20 by FireChans