I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Mikey152]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Last year's Chiefs offense is probably the best point of reference we have. Mahomes finished 7th in passing YPG but just 19th in passing YPA. Considering that offense still featured Travis Kelce and of course Andy Reid calling plays I don't think we can reasonably predict better from the Bills passing offense this year. A reasonable average prediction would probably be something like 9th and 21st respectively.

 

Of course there is a path to better. In previous discussions I have laid out these 4 best case scenarios:

 

1) Joe Brady turns out to be a top 5 offensive coach.

2) Kincaid develops into a top 5 pass catching TE.

3) Coleman hits the ground running and is immediately a starting caliber X WR.

4) Claypool turns back into the player he was in his first two seasons.

 

I think there is a path for each of these scenarios to come to fruition but none of them are likely. How our passing offense performs will depend on which if any of these scenarios come to fruition.

 

I don't know, I think we can run something like the Lions offense.

[Alphadawg7]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah, you are cherry picking.  

 

What happened to Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Clay?  Why did Robert Foster crash to earth in year 2 with Allen?   Why hasn't Dawson Knox become a star?   Why did Gabe Davis plateau and never really become more effective in his final 3 seasons?  Why did Beasley and Brown fail to replicate their ONE career outlier season each with Allen?   Sherfield and Harty were supposed to play big roles.  Why did Trent Sherfield put up only 86 yards after putting up 417 the year before in Miami.  He played over 1/3 of the Bills offensive snaps!  

 

The answer to ALL of these disappointments isn't on Josh Allen, IMO.  

 

But you can't make one claim without acknowledging the rest.

 

That is cherry picking.

 

Diggs is the only player we can make the argument that Allen has consistently elevated.........and doesn't necessarily mean it's true.........the reality was that he was a prime aged star coming off a near 18 yard per reception season in Minnesota.    Look what Cousins did with Justin Jefferson after Diggs!

This is quite honestly your worst argument and take since you tried to convince me during last season that Shakir can’t catch.  
 

So TE’s play WR now?  Lmao.  You are so predictable. You always move the goal post or change the comparison…or at least try to…when you’re clearly out of any logical way to counter a point or just factually wrong.  
 

You’re not even capable of sticking to the topic.  The statement is very clearly was about how the starting WR’s have put up their CAREER high with Allen.  Robert Foster did that, but you AGAIN try and spin that by citing he didn’t set a new career high the next season?  Lol, you mean the one where he was NOT a starter and wasn’t even active most the season because he was in the coaches dog house?  Haha what a meaningless thing to bring up as if that somehow changes that Foster had a career high with Allen.  You don’t seem to understand that only furthers my point.

 

And, so funny…I just told you Allen only played 10 1/2 games as a rookie, yet you bring up KB?  And I already told you that in the last post lol.  Not to mention states that it was true except for when injuries prevented it.  And even though Allen only played in 10 1/2 games as a rookie, Foster and Zay had still put up then career highs.  Zay did beat it one time since 2 years ago, but again he only played 10 1/2 games with Josh Allen that year, still his 2nd best of his career.

 

You want to bring up Knox (again not a WR) who had 15 TDs the 2 years before Kincaid got here, including 9 in 2021 that resulted in him getting a big contract as a failure?  Lol, especially considering how little his target share was as neither Daboll or Dorsey prioritized throwing to the TE.  And when Brady did use the TE’s once Kincaid was here, Kincaid put up the 4th most receptions for a rookie TE in NFL history.  You really think Knox is gonna have a better 2 year span for any other team if he leaves Buffalo and Allen than his 15 TDs from 2021-2022? Possible, but prob not.  Also…he’s a TE, we talking WRs, so irrelevant anyway.  

 

You were wrong when you wanted to bring up all his “failures” to do so…just accept that and move on instead of doubling and tripling down on what should have just been a simple mistake.  It doesn’t even mean you have to change your negative opinion, just means you misspoke without knowing if it was true.  It’s complete fact, not an opinion, that the starting WRs not affected by injuries set career highs with Allen.  
 

 

Edited July 19 by Alphadawg7

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I don't know, I think we can run something like the Lions offense.

 

What possesses you to think that? They have an elite OL, the best slot WR in the NFL, and a top 3 offensive coach. If you love the Lions offense I have one idea that could get us there, but that discussion will have to wait until next offseason.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

What possesses you to think that? They have an elite OL, the best slot WR in the NFL, and a top 3 offensive coach. If you love the Lions offense I have one idea that could get us there, but that discussion will have to wait until next offseason.

 

You think Johnson is a top 3 offensive coach?? I mean, I think he is good, but he hasn't proven to be at that level IMO. 

Edited July 18 by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

The only chance that the Bills have a top 5 passing attack next season is if Coleman is an out of the box surprise star, imo.

 

The chances of that are low, but not zero. 

Would you agree coming out of College Keon is a clearly better prospect than Gabe Davis was coming in as a 4th round pick?

 

Davis made a pretty good impact as a rookie despite his limited route tree, mediocre route running, questionable hands, and struggles with getting off the line and separation.  All things Keon is better at than Davis.

 

So not sure I wound say the chances are “low” that he can make an impact this season.  To be fair,  I wouldn’t say they are “high” either, because Keon doesn’t have the benefit Davis had of being opposite Diggs.  But he does have a deep group around him that can make plays including a better run game.  

I just think “low” is a bit harsh when you have Josh Allen at QB and a lot of guys who can make plays like Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Cook, etc still on this offense too.  

[HappyDays]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

You think Johnson is a top 3 offensive coach?? I mean, I think he is good, but hw hasn't proven to be at that level IMO. 

 

I'll revise that to top 4.

 

Reid

Shanahan

McVay

Johnson

 

That's probably the order I'd have them. Agreed that Johnson needs to prove more which puts him behind the other 3 but his first two seasons in Detroit have been amazing. He actually got more out of Jared Goff than even Sean McVay did.

[Avisan]

35 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

And in those 7 regular season Brady games..........by your own calculations.........Allen produced what would have been the 17th most yards passing per game in the league.

 

Correct, including the Cowboys game where we neglected the passing game because kicked the daylights out of them by running 49 times instead.  Still confused why you are using the statistical skew created by that game as a negative about the Bills' offensive capabilities.

 

You still have yet to give a straight answer regarding your prediction of next year's passing production ranking.  Why is it so difficult to put a rough number on it?

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'll revise that to top 4.

 

Reid

Shanahan

McVay

Johnson

 

That's probably the order I'd have them. Agreed that Johnson needs to prove more which puts him behind the other 3 but his first two seasons in Detroit have been amazing. He actually got more out of Jared Goff than even Sean McVay did.

 

I think I am slightly less convinced because I have always believed Jared Goff is a good player, and underrated by most NFL fans because he sucked as a rookie and that impression stuck. They have an elite line (the best in the NFL) and a good Quarterback. I do think they have outperformed expectations based on the receivers on the roster, but I think they have a really solid base there to start from. He is a good coach, clearly, but he isn't in that company yet IMO.

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Would you agree coming out of College Keon is a clearly better prospect than Gabe Davis was coming in as a 4th round pick?

 

Davis made a pretty good impact as a rookie despite his limited route tree, mediocre route running, questionable hands, and struggles with getting off the line and separation.  All things Keon is better at than Davis.

 

So not sure I wound say the chances are “low” that he can make an impact this season.  To be fair,  I wouldn’t say they are “high” either, because Keon doesn’t have the benefit Davis had of being opposite Diggs.  But he does have a deep group around him that can make plays including a better run game.  

I just think “low” is a bit harsh when you have Josh Allen at QB and a lot of guys who can make plays like Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Cook, etc still on this offense too.  

I’m not talking about being a contributor. I’m talking about being a star.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Would you agree coming out of College Keon is a clearly better prospect than Gabe Davis was coming in as a 4th round pick?

 

Davis made a pretty good impact as a rookie despite his limited route tree, mediocre route running, questionable hands, and struggles with getting off the line and separation.  All things Keon is better at than Davis.

 

 

Personally, yes I would but not by a ton. I had a late 2nd on Coleman and a mid 3rd on Gabe. I also am not persuaded he is - at this stage - a better route runner or better at getting separation. I think he is pretty much on a par there with Gabe coming out. Better hands and much more dynamic after the catch are the two big differences IMO that justified that difference in my evaluation.

 

And then as you acknowledge, Davis was playing opposite Stef Diggs - an elite player - and didn't have to start day 1 cos Brown was still here. Coleman is being pencilled in by Beane as their starting X because their outside receiver options asider from him are thin to say the least.

[Mikey152]

40 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

What possesses you to think that? They have an elite OL, the best slot WR in the NFL, and a top 3 offensive coach. If you love the Lions offense I have one idea that could get us there, but that discussion will have to wait until next offseason.

Their "best slot in the NFL" was a fourth round pick and is 6' 202 with a 4.5 40. 

 

The number one predictor of production in the NFL at WR is targets. St. Brown gets a lot of targets because their other receivers suck. So is he really the best slot receiver in the NFL, or is he just the most targeted? Targets correlate to production, but they don't always correlate to talent. He's the best receiver on the Lions, so he gets lots of targets. If he was a Dolphin, for example, he probably only gets half those targets at best.

 

So tell me why Shakir or Samuel can't do what he does. Why Kincaid cant do what Laporta did. And yes their line is better, but Buffalos QB is WAY better. As for OC, if he is top 3 why isn't he a HC?

Edited July 18 by Mikey152

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Their "best slot in the NFL" was a fourth round pick and is 6' 202 with a 4.5 40. 

 

The number one predictor of production in the NFL at WR is targets. St. Brown gets a lot of targets because their other receivers suck. So is he really the best slot receiver in the NFL, or is he just the most targeted? Targets correlate to production, but they don't always correlate to talent. He's the best receiver on the Lions, so he gets lots of targets. If he was a Dolphin, for example, he probably only gets half those targets at best.

 

So tell me why Shakir or Samuel can't do what he does. Why Kincaid cant do what Laporta did. And yes their line is better, but Buffalos QB is WAY better. As for OC, if he is top 3 why isn't he a HC?

Wow to almost all of this

 

[BADOLBILZ]

57 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So TE’s play WR now?  Lmao.  You are so predictable. You always move the goal post or change the comparison…or at least try to…when you’re clearly out of any logical way to counter a point or just factually wrong.  
 

 

 

 

This is YOUR quote that I replied directly to:

 

"Bottom line, not only is expecting the group to rank higher by seasons end not unreasonable, it’s statistically the most probable outcome based on history of all receivers and weapons that play with Josh Allen." 

 

I didn't move the goal post...........you forgot where you put it.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

This is YOUR quote that I replied directly to:

 

"Bottom line, not only is expecting the group to rank higher by seasons end not unreasonable, it’s statistically the most probable outcome based on history of all receivers and weapons that play with Josh Allen." 

 

I didn't move the goal post...........you forgot where you put it.

 

 

I said WR’s in the follow-ups when we got into specifics, but ok, going back to that post it’s both.  
 

So your lone example of a failure at a career high while playing with Allen is Clay in 6 years?  Got it.  So many failures lmao compared to all the successes…lol. 
 

You’re still wrong 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally, yes I would but not by a ton. I had a late 2nd on Coleman and a mid 3rd on Gabe. I also am not persuaded he is - at this stage - a better route runner or better at getting separation. I think he is pretty much on a par there with Gabe coming out. Better hands and much more dynamic after the catch are the two big differences IMO that justified that difference in my evaluation.

 

And then as you acknowledge, Davis was playing opposite Stef Diggs - an elite player - and didn't have to start day 1 cos Brown was still here. Coleman is being pencilled in by Beane as their starting X because their outside receiver options asider from him are thin to say the least.

I agree with a lot of this, but the area I disagree is about the route running and separation part.  IMHO Keon is a little better off the line with more moves and faster feet than Gabe had (and Gabe never really improved there) which IMHO gives an edge over Gabe to get earlier separation, an area Gabe was not strong at.  Gabe also ran a limited route tree because he wasn’t a sharp route runner and tended to round his cuts and angles.  Keon is more athletic by a lot and his foot work and cuts are cleaner and sharper than Gabe, and that allows Keon to have a wider route tree and cleaner routes IMHO than Gabe had coming out.

 

But I don’t disagree about the rest of your post much, just that I do think Keon has an edge over Gabe coming out on route running and separation earlier in the routes for those reasons. 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I said WR’s in the follow-ups when we got into specifics, but ok, going back to that post it’s both.  
 

So your lone example of a failure at a career high while playing with Allen is Clay in 6 years?  Got it.  So many failures lmao compared to all the successes…lol. 
 

You’re still wrong 

 

 

 

I suppose this is what I get for telling you to distill your takes down. 

 

You went from "look at all the receiving weapons who have played with Josh Allen"..........(which is like 50 players).......down to........"no, wait just look at these 3.   And only count one season for 2 of those guys." 

[Einstein's Dog]

8 hours ago, Avisan said:

You are aware that Brady was OC for only 7 games, yes?

 

In those 7 games, Allen averaged 243.7 passing yards per game, slightly below his season average of 253.3.  One of those games was the Cowboys game, where we demolished them by running it down their throat (49 rushes) with a 5.4 YPC average.  His passing yardage average the other 6 games was 268.7 yards per game.  Extended to a 17 game season, that would be 4,567 yards, which would have been the 7th-most yardage this past season, 10 yards behind #6 and 11 yards behind #7.  Even leaving in the Cowboys' game puts them at 17th over a 17 game season.

 

If the Bills fall outside of the Top 10 because they have more games like the Cowboys game, I think I'm okay with that.

 

If you spent half as much time double-checking your facts as you did bloviating, we could all save a bunch of time and energy here.

 

Should we keep you at a guess of 23rd overall or would you like to amend your prediction?

If you're taking out Josh's worst statistical game you should take out the others worst game.  And since you are using just a half year for Josh and extrapolating it, you would need to take out the 2 worst games for the others.  You're trying to play games with the numbers to make it look better.

[Mikey152]

59 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Wow to almost all of this

 

Great information.

 

491. That's the lowest number of pass attempts in the league last year. The Bills will probably throw the ball at least 550 times. Somebody on the Bills is gonna get those targets. Whether we have 8 guys with 500 yards receiving or one or two with close to 1000 and a bunch with 3-400 remains to be seen, but no matter how bad you think our WR are, there are at least 350-400 catches out there. 

 

Let me put it this way...everyone hates on Gabe Davis, but last year he was top 50 in yards and top 25 in TDs for the entire NFL. That includes RB and TE, so at the very least he is an average to above average #2 WR when it comes to counting stats. Every Bills fan knows his efficiency was propped up by big plays, and his catch % was trash, but apparently numbers are numbers. Guess we should have kept him.

 

Personally, I'd rather give those 80 targets to somebody more consistent. Even if his efficiency is similar or lower, I'd be ok with that for a better catch rate. That said, I think both Coleman and Claypool are capable of repeating his efficiency with a better catch rate in the right circumstances. 55 catches for 700-800 yards puts that WR squarely as a solid #2 option numbers wise.

Edited July 18 by Mikey152

[GunnerBill]

57 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I agree with a lot of this, but the area I disagree is about the route running and separation part.  IMHO Keon is a little better off the line with more moves and faster feet than Gabe had (and Gabe never really improved there) which IMHO gives an edge over Gabe to get earlier separation, an area Gabe was not strong at.  Gabe also ran a limited route tree because he wasn’t a sharp route runner and tended to round his cuts and angles.  Keon is more athletic by a lot and his foot work and cuts are cleaner and sharper than Gabe, and that allows Keon to have a wider route tree and cleaner routes IMHO than Gabe had coming out. 

 

I don't see that on his tape personally. And I watched a ton of Keon film. 

 

EDIT: he is better than Gabe was coming out off the line but Gabe did improve his release package in the league. He was never great at it but he was definitely better years 3 and 4 than years 1 and 2.

Edited July 18 by GunnerBill

[Avisan]

23 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

If you're taking out Josh's worst statistical game you should take out the others worst game.  And since you are using just a half year for Josh and extrapolating it, you would need to take out the 2 worst games for the others.  You're trying to play games with the numbers to make it look better.

What?  We're not snipping it because it's a bad game, we're snipping it because it was a great game for the Bills that involved 18 recorded passing plays and 49 recorded rushes.  Including that clear outlier in a small sample size does not provide an accurate picture of what we can expect the passing game to look like with Brady.  It's an outlier among NFL teams generally.

 

Like, we beat the daylights out of them, and we stuck to the ground because they couldn't stop it.  Using that to then indict our passing volume stats is peak bad faith.