I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

Again, you are overlooking the entirety of the unknowns and narrowing it to “lots of teams drafted a rookie WR”.  

How many of those teams have every WR but 1 as new?  How many of those teams have a new OC and new offensive system?  How many of those teams have a QB learning his 3rd system in 3 years?  How many of those teams are replacing nearly 300 targets in their offense?  
 

Now ask how many of those teams have Josh Allen and who has elevated pretty much every starting WR he has ever played with to career highs?  You are just glossing over things to maintain the pessimistic outlook you insist on coating all your views with. 
 

Bottom line, not only is expecting the group to rank higher by seasons end not unreasonable, it’s statistically the most probable outcome based on history of all receivers and weapons that play with Josh Allen.  To deny that is to be stubborn to a particular view.  
 

 

 

 

To the highlighted.........do the answers to any of those questions indicate anything one way or another with regard to the likeliness of more positive result?   You make it sound rather perilous, actually.

 

As for this broad "Josh Allen's tide raises all ships" at the WR position notion............we've been thru this........some WR's he's elevated, others he's not.   Not saying it's his fault but their performance is still mostly based on what THEY can do for Josh.   Other non-free agent or trade acquisitions we don't know because they were drafted by the Bills..........though none of the one's they've drafted for Allen have turned into 1,000 yard receivers or anything close, have they?   You want to cherry pick around the failures.   That's not good data.

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Yawn.

 

1.) Regular season =/= postseason, and the stats get separated out for a reason.  You are welcome to your own personal approach to this, but nobody else is required to humor it when discussing/projecting regular season rankings.

 

2.) Passing yardage and net passing yardage are two different stats.  Both are tracked as team stats.  For example, nfl.com tracks raw passing as a team stats.

 

It is also trivial to do this exercise for net passing yards.  Minus the Dallas game, 255.5 yards/game, good for 6th overall.  With Dallas game, 231.1 yards/game, good for 14th overall.  Using your preferred team stat literally helps my argument.  Which you would already know if you had bothered to do your homework.

 

3.) If the Bills have worse passing stats because they are beating teams by running the ball effectively, then... good?  Don't we want that?  It's not as though the Bills ran because they couldn't pass, excluding the Dallas game they passed very well.  You are oddly talking out of both sides of your mouth with the Dallas game, using its aberrant stats to attack the quality of the passing game while pretending to praise it as a good thing.

 

If the Bills don't have more Dallas games, the numbers predict a Top 10 offense based on Brady's regular season performance.  If the Bills have two Dallas games next season and fall outside of the Top 10,nobody cares, because that's awesome news for us, and anybody who uses those games to attack our offensive capabilities is operating in bad faith.

 

So again, are you sticking to a prediction of 23rd overall net passing offense for the 2024 season?

 

 

So in summation...........you said my data was wrong.   It was in fact entirely accurate,  you just wanted to omit some games and calculate the team ranking using Josh Allen's individual game log stats.   Like I said,  we can do it either way but I was following your original parameters.    But you were wrong in saying that my data was incorrect. 

 

And admit it........your heart dropped into your uterus when you realized that even your own 7 game calculation would have projected the Bills to rank a mere 17th in passing yardage for the season.

 

You didn't see that coming.

 

This is my point.   People think that they've just always been a top passing team and always will be regardless of who they put around Allen.   But, in fact, that distinction stopped when Brady took over and the Bills implemented their "complementary football" approach.  

 

And again,   my prediction has been that this will not be the WR corps they finish the season with.   If it is this group........the likelihood is that they finish in the back half of the league in passing yardage.........sack adjusted or otherwise.   

 

That's not to say that they decide they can't run Allen 9 times per game and abandon the winning "complementary football" formula for the sake of his health........and they turn into something like an inefficient 6.5 yards per attempt passing team........which is sort of what happened in 2021 (6.8 ypa) when they tried to keep Allen in the pocket until late season and struggled as a result.  Like the 6-3 loss in Jacksonville or a number of other sh!t sandwich passing performances that season.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

To the highlighted.........do the answers to any of those questions indicate anything one way or another with regard to the likeliness of more positive result?   You make it sound rather perilous, actually.

 

As for this broad "Josh Allen's tide raises all ships" at the WR position notion............we've been thru this........some WR's he's elevated, others he's not.   Not saying it's his fault but their performance is still mostly based on what THEY can do for Josh.   Other non-free agent or trade acquisitions we don't know because they were drafted by the Bills..........though none of the one's they've drafted for Allen have turned into 1,000 yard receivers or anything close, have they?   You want to cherry pick around the failures.   That's not good data.

The questions illustrate the complete unknown.  And the “you make it sound quite perilous” is part of the low ranking because with so much unknown with all the changes there isn’t anything proven to elevate the rankings.  
 

Lmao, the failures?  Do you mean the 2 guys who got hurt in Crowder and Sanders?  I said the 3 starting WR’s.  It’s not that it’s not good data, it’s more you don’t seem to know the correct data.  
 

2018 - Shouldn't really even use 2018 as he was a raw rookie who only played 10 1/2 games….but Foster and Zay still had then career highs and gave their careers life.  Foster wouldn’t ever play meaningful football again.  
 

After that - Every starting WR who didn’t get hurt (Sanders and Crowder) have put up their career best seasons with Allen.  
 

There is no logical or rational way to dispute that fact because it’s just that…a statistical fact…not opinion.

Edited July 19 by Alphadawg7

[Avisan]

@BADOLBILZSome bizarre fantasies going on here.  Regardless:

 

If the Bills do not make any significant WR pickups, where do you expect them to rank as a passing offense?  It's a very simple question, why are you avoiding providing a simple answer?

[Dillenger4]

Look at all these informations!

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, Avisan said:

@BADOLBILZSome bizarre fantasies going on here.  Regardless:

 

If the Bills do not make any significant WR pickups, where do you expect them to rank as a passing offense?  It's a very simple question, why are you avoiding providing a simple answer?

i would expect them to fall no lower than 15th but no higher than 10th

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The questions illustrate the complete unknown.  And the “you make it sound quite perilous” is part of the low ranking because with so much unknown with all the changes there isn’t anything proven to elevate the rankings.  
 

Lmao, the failures?  Do you mean the 2 guys who got hurt in Crowder and Sanders?  I said the 3 starting WR’s.  It’s not that it’s not good data, it’s more you don’t seem to know the correct data.  
 

2018 - Shouldn't really even use 2018 as he was a raw rookie who only played 8 1/2 games….but Foster and Zay still had then career highs and gave their careers life.  Foster wouldn’t ever play meaningful football again.  
 

After that - Every starting WR who didn’t get hurt (Sanders and Crowder) have put up their career best seasons with Allen.  

 

 

 

Yeah, you are cherry picking.  

 

What happened to Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Clay?  Why did Robert Foster crash to earth in year 2 with Allen?   Why hasn't Dawson Knox become a star?   Why did Gabe Davis plateau and never really become more effective in his final 3 seasons?  Why did Beasley and Brown fail to replicate their ONE career outlier season each with Allen?   Sherfield and Harty were supposed to play big roles.  Why did Trent Sherfield put up only 86 yards after putting up 417 the year before in Miami.  He played over 1/3 of the Bills offensive snaps!  

 

The answer to ALL of these disappointments isn't on Josh Allen, IMO.  

 

But you can't make one claim without acknowledging the rest.

 

That is cherry picking.

 

Diggs is the only player we can make the argument that Allen has consistently elevated.........and doesn't necessarily mean it's true.........the reality was that he was a prime aged star coming off a near 18 yard per reception season in Minnesota.    Look what Cousins did with Justin Jefferson after Diggs!

[Avisan]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

i would expect them to fall no lower than 15th but no higher than 10th

I think that's a reasonable prediction.  I'm obviously more optimistic, but if you expect an offensive drop-off that's an extremely justifiable landing spot.

[GoBills808]

Just now, Avisan said:

I think that's a reasonable prediction.  I'm obviously more optimistic, but if you expect an offensive drop-off that's an extremely justifiable landing spot.

i think so

 

and i say that w the caveat that imo if they were to have an outsize showing it would be on the lower end...i mean i think it's more likely that w this group as currently configured they end up 25th than 3rd, say

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:

And yet, 2020 isn't even the year people point to when they say they didn't fulfil their promise.  It was 2021, and in 2021 they averaged 6.8 ypa and all their passing metrics went down despite having basically the same core. Diggs YPT in 2021 was garbage.

 

The 13 win 2020 is the closest they've gotten to the SB.

 

  Don't tell me about the 11 win 2021 team being the one that deserved better, though.

 

The 2021 struggles were reflected in their step back in the passing game.

 

Brown was gone,  Beasley got old fast and Sanders fell off quick.

 

When you build a WR corps around vets you can't expect it to last.   The Bills expected bargain investments like Davis and McKenzie to grow into starting roles and blossom........they shopped in the clearance aisle for other talent.........and got burned.

 

Which is why they've had to draft for need for weapons with their first pick each of the last 2 drafts.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

i think so

 

and i say that w the caveat that imo if they were to have an outsize showing it would be on the lower end...i mean i think it's more likely that w this group as currently configured they end up 25th than 3rd, say

The only chance that the Bills have a top 5 passing attack next season is if Coleman is an out of the box surprise star, imo.

 

The chances of that are low, but not zero. 

[Avisan]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

i think so

 

and i say that w the caveat that imo if they were to have an outsize showing it would be on the lower end...i mean i think it's more likely that w this group as currently configured they end up 25th than 3rd, say

Oh, man.  That's tougher.  Anything higher than 5th or lower than 20th would genuinely shock me.  I think it would take a significant injury to Allen for me to not consider 25th to be a someone's-head-should-roll scenario.  Last year 25th was 3,163 net yards (Steelers).  3rd was 4,397 (Cowboys).  I think it's far more likely that the Bills add 15 passing yards per game than that they drop almost 60 yards per game.

 

I guess we'll find out the actual trend soon enough.  Ready for football season to get here.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Oh, man.  That's tougher.  Anything higher than 5th or lower than 20th would genuinely shock me.  I think it would take a significant injury to Allen for me to not consider 25th to be a someone's-head-should-roll scenario.  Last year 25th was 3,163 net yards (Steelers).  3rd was 4,397 (Cowboys).  I think it's far more likely that the Bills add 15 passing yards per game than that they drop almost 60 yards per game.

 

I guess we'll find out the actual trend soon enough.  Ready for football season to get here.

this is where we diverge

 

tbh i think there's almost zero reason to assume the pass offense will be improved over years past. i think the room is weaker and the OC is green

[Avisan]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

this is where we diverge

 

tbh i think there's almost zero reason to assume the pass offense will be improved over years past. i think the room is weaker and the OC is green

I think the room is pretty equivalent to the back half of last season (whatever the heck was up with Diggs really impacted his quality of play), and as discussed further upthread the Brady games were actually pretty productive, passing-wise.  The Cowboys game skews it because we just ran all over them because they couldn't stop it.

 

I don't think the Bills will improve overall passing production either, but I would be less surprised by a moderate increase than a dramatic plunge.  Increase likely means Coleman or Claypool really step up, which would be a very pleasant surprise.  A plunge to 25th means things absolutely fell apart, though.  I don't think the evidence supports Brady being a train wreck, and the WR group lacks a superstar but should have a starting lineup of NFL-caliber players.

[BADOLBILZ]

17 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The only chance that the Bills have a top 5 passing attack next season is if Coleman is an out of the box surprise star, imo.

 

The chances of that are low, but not zero. 

 

Even if we buy that Keon has the polish to succeed as a rookie..........his projected "X" position makes it more difficult.

 

Guys like Puka and Rashee Rice who finished 4th and 32nd in receiving yards and lead all rookies did what they did mostly playing the slot or just lined up tight to the formation.

 

It's more difficult to be great on the outside as a rookie.  Better corners, tougher releases etc..

 

And in order to get slot chances it would likely have to come at the expense of the Bills NEXT 2 most likely receivers to succeed in Shakir and Samuel.   So a success might be robbing one to feed another.   Not unlike Kincaid having relative success at the expense of Knox having almost none.

 

They had a whole WR corps full of slot receivers before they went dumpster diving for Claypool and MVS.

 

 

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Even if we buy that Keon has the polish to succeed as a rookie..........his projected "X" position makes it more difficult.

 

Guys like Puka and Rashee Rice who finished 4th and 32nd in receiving yards and lead all rookies did what they did mostly playing the slot or just lined up tight to the formation.

 

It's more difficult to be great on the outside as a rookie.  Better corners, tougher releases etc..

 

And in order to get slot chances it would likely have to come at the expense of the Bills NEXT 2 most likely receivers to succeed in Shakir and Samuel.   So a success might be robbing one to feed another.   Not unlike Kincaid having relative success at the expense of Knox having almost none.

 

They had a whole WR corps full of slot receivers before they went dumpster diving for Claypool and MVS.

 

 

I'm talking like the 1 in a thousand rookie who just dominates from week 1 and blows away all expectations.

 

JJ was a guy who was projected to be a slot and have difficulty with separation and basically rendered all that projection moot. That's the only way for the Bills WR room to be good. For Coleman to be a historic rookie.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Avisan said:

If the Bills do not make any significant WR pickups, where do you expect them to rank as a passing offense?

 

Last year's Chiefs offense is probably the best point of reference we have. Mahomes finished 7th in passing YPG but just 19th in passing YPA. Considering that offense still featured Travis Kelce and of course Andy Reid calling plays I don't think we can reasonably predict better from the Bills passing offense this year. A reasonable average prediction would probably be something like 9th and 21st respectively.

 

Of course there is a path to better. In previous discussions I have laid out these 4 best case scenarios:

 

1) Joe Brady turns out to be a top 5 offensive coach.

2) Kincaid develops into a top 5 pass catching TE.

3) Coleman hits the ground running and is immediately a starting caliber X WR.

4) Claypool turns back into the player he was in his first two seasons.

 

I think there is a path for each of these scenarios to come to fruition but none of them are likely. How our passing offense performs will depend on which if any of these scenarios come to fruition.

 

Edited July 18 by HappyDays

[Rocky Landing]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Again.........everything is an "unknown".    You can't advance a point or be predictive if you dismiss likelihoods in favor of well it's all "unknown".    

 

Half the teams in the NFL picked a WR in the first 2 days of the draft for chrissakes.   7 of them BEFORE the Bills.   The Bills are by no means unique in regard to having a rookie that they hope could start right away but for some reason this is supposed to be a compelling point of evidence why the Bills are underrated?   Because they got the 8th WR off the board?    

 

And the 24th "weapons" ranking on ESPN doesn't necessarily imply that ALL of the Bills key players are "not very good"..........it's how they are expected to rank against peers.    As I've said many times,   the league is absolutely LOADED with talented receiving threats.   Look at the actual lists and if you don't know who the opposing players are then look up their production and objectively compare it to things like Kincaid averaging a pathetic 9 yards per catch on a healthy 90 targets and explain to me why it's unrealistic how the Bills targets are being characterized.  

 

Also,  note that @Rocky Landing says that it's VERY likely that they rank higher.   I disagreed.  You are attributing his words to me.   But the larger point is that there isn't data that suggests it's likely let alone VERY likely.   That's all we can work off of.   It's not about your offseason "feels".

I strongly suspect that these pre-season rankings lack quite a bit of context. And, of course, post-season rankings are based on the season's production-- no additional context necessary. But, there is real data to suggest that Josh Allen will elevate the WR room's production, just as he did in 2020. So, the question to be considered is how much of this contextual data, and unknowns (Allen's ability to elevate WR play, the TEs, and RBs drawing coverage, etc) are being considered by ESPN's, and other analysts rankings? 

 

I have to believe that a ranking that places the Bills' WRs at 27th is primarily based on stacking up the individual performances of the group, and would include very little context beyond that. And that's fine. (It's certainly not good news.) But, this methodology, in the case of the Bills, and in my admittedly optimistic view, lowers the ranking, and is not a good speculative metric. I would bet money that at the end of the season, this group will not rank 27th, or lower in production. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Avisan said:

I think the room is pretty equivalent to the back half of last season (whatever the heck was up with Diggs really impacted his quality of play), and as discussed further upthread the Brady games were actually pretty productive, passing-wise. 

 

And in those 7 regular season Brady games..........by your own calculations.........Allen produced what would have been the 17th most yards passing per game in the league.

 

[Mikey152]

14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

And in those 7 regular season Brady games..........by your own calculations.........Allen produced what would have been the 17th most yards passing per game in the league.

 

At this point, we might as well just call a spade a spade...confirmation bias everywhere on both sides.

 

What I can't figure out is why there are so many negative opinions on a Bills board...an NFL board, I get. But this is Bills fans arguing with other Bills fans about how bad something that hasn't even happened yet is going to be. Even worse, you're down on a team that has won the second most games in the NFL since 2020 and has the best point differential over that span. ZERO benefit of the doubt, ZERO context...honestly, it's kinda weird.

 

If our recievers, team, coaches, FO, etc all suck as bad as you guys seem to think, Josh Allen is pretty much the greatest person that ever lived.

Edited July 18 by Mikey152