I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Mahomes can prop up bad defenses in the playoffs. He won two SB’s doing so.

 

Yes, with HoF talent on the field with him. That's my point. To overcome abysmal defensive performances we need way more offensive talent.

 

It is so frustrating that as soon as the Chiefs lost their edge in offensive talent, they immediately got an elite defense to make up for it. Wouldn't that be nice.

[akcash]

Hey in history there is Malcolm Kelly and Larry Fitzgerald. That is the spectrum. Bust, HOFer, both big with suss 40 times. Somewhere in between lies Leon Slowman.

 

Where does Leon end?

 

Kelly—-Leon——————————-Fitz

 

Kelly———————————-Leon—Fitz

 

Kelly————————-Fitz—-“eighty dollaz!”

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:

It's not really an apples to apples comparison, though, to cite how the receivers in 2020 finished the season, and compare it to how this WR room (with all the unknowns they bring) ranks entering the season. I don't know where the 2020, or 2023 corps ranked entering their seasons, but considering that there is only one player returning in 2024 from last season (Shakir), I would suspect that one factor alone would push the ranking down for many analysts, as would the lack of clear data as a whole.

 

I also believe (and perhaps I'm merely being optimistic here) that this ranking will very likely be higher at the end of the season, than entering the season. Especially if the ranking is for "receiving corps,"and not just "WR corps."

 

How much higher is, of course, speculation. But, it's not really pure speculation. There is relevant data that we can apply. For example, we can look at Samuel, and the QBs, and offenses he has worked under, and make an assumption that he will produce better with Allen. I'm sure you would say that's an optimistic application of the data, and I suppose it is. But it's not unrealistic. It becomes unrealistic when it is over emphasized.

 

Conversely, I think you are overemphasizing some of the contrary data-- like how much more Shakir, Kincaid, and/or Samuel will be pressured by the top defenders in any given game because of Diggs' departure. Certainly, that's going to happen, but I do believe that you, and others, have been overstating it.

 

 

 

1) I'm not saying it's an apples-to-apples comparison or conclusive proof I am just saying you can't dismiss out-of-hand that the Bills weapons were among the elite...........which saying "nah" kinda' does.   Their WR corps was the most productive and their overall "receiving corps" of WR/RB/TE rank was top 3 in both total receiving yards and TD's.   Does a great QB like Allen elevate those players to some extent?   Sure,  but there were A LOT of other great QB's in 2020.   Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady all could have been MVP in addition to runner-up Allen........DeShaun Watson threw for 4800+ yards with an absurd 8.9 yards per attempt,   Russell Wilson threw 40 TD passes.  

 

2) It's not very likely that the "WR corps" would rank higher at the end of the season.   They are ranked there because that's their expected performance level this season relative to their peers.   That's the point.   And it is the WR corps.......not the receiving corps.    ESPN recently ranked the Bills cast of weapons("sometimes" called a receiving corps) as 24th in the league.   Slightly higher because of above average TE and RB group.

 

3) Correct, there is relevant data.   That's what the statistical models are for.   There is a whole industry with billions of dollars changing hands........the foundation of which begins with projecting theses guys stats.    

 

4) The reality is that it all looks easier in the offseason.   It's far from easy to get open and make plays in the NFL as a receiver.   Just like it's far from easy to rush the passer.   Or command and control double teams as a NT.   Those realities hit drought era Bills fans in the mouth every September for 16 years.   What we should be able to admit is that star players command extra attention and that extra attention creates greater opportunity for others.   I'm not overstating anything.   It's reality.   It's a matchup league.  

Edited July 17 by BADOLBILZ

[YattaOkasan]

35 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

OP stated that he thought the Bills 2024 WR group could be improved over the 2023 group. 
 

I think he may be correct, but you continually insist that he’s wrong because PFF has them as the 27th graded group. 
 

its an interesting group of WR. 
 

Shakir finished the year on a strong run the final 7 games, among the league leaders in catch % and ypc. Will  this be a springboard to becoming a top 10 WR?

 

Coleman is a promising rookie, with a strong record in college. 
 

Samuel has been a consistent performer, with 600+ receiving yards 4 of the past 5 seasons, with poor QB play. 
 

MVS has had consistent success, averaging 500+ yds and 15+ ypc in 5 of the last 6 seasons. 
 

Claypool had 800+ yds his first 2 seasons (with good qb play), then fell way off. Can he resurrect his career?

 

Hollins has had one good year with 600+ yds 

 

As a group, these WR have been successful NFL WR. They all have question marks, but it’s not as if these guys, as a group, have never had success in the nfl (excepting Coleman, who was their first draft pick this year). 
 

I’ll bet that this group finishes 2024 as better than 27. You in?

The concern, and its valid imo, is that we dont have a #1.  Your list is correct on why to have hope but how likely are a lot of these things.  Shakir, Samuel, MVS are the most established and Coleman's investment sorta demands he do a little.  Do wanna check your MVS numbers.  I dont see him having 500 yards 3 of 6 seasons (though they alternate and last year he did not get 500 so thats good).  Then Hollins had to be force fed to get that 690 yards.  I also don't count on Claypool for others.

 

McD has shown he can be ahead of the curve (nickel usage, the way they used Josh as a runner was pretty unique, heavier personnel packages) so I hope hes getting ahead of a curve here related to having a defined WR1.  I think theres a a good chance they pull it off, but it such a novel approach that I understand the concerns.    

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

My take has been that the offense needs better talent to perform better, and the defense needs better coaching. I understand not everyone agrees with that. But since the coaching isn't going to change I think over investing in the offense is the only way we'll ever get a championship.

 

Can appreciate that take.  Im still focused on defense cause of how much we should be able to get out of it, but i understand the concerns about coaching cause the game plans have been pretty atrocious.  Though not sure how much game planning could've saved AJ klein anyway and the previous years were potentially more Frazier.  But the part that has a bit more excited is that we are starting to shift from a Back 7/coverage focus to a Front 7/pressure focus.  That change in focus with a change to Babich gets me a bit excited.  As mentioned appreciate you clarifying and hope you understand the hope for defense figures it out side more.

[Avisan]

17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

2) It's not very likely that the "WR corps" would rank higher at the end of the season.   They are ranked there because that's their expected performance level this season relative to their peers.   That's the point.   And it is the WR corps.......not the receiving corps.    ESPN recently ranked the Bills cast of weapons("sometimes" called a receiving corps) as 24th in the league.   Slightly higher because of above average TE and RB group.

Where do you, personally, expect the Bills to rank in terms of offensive passing production at the end of the 2024 season?

[Avisan]

17 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Then Hollins had to be force fed to get that 690 yards.

Interestingly, his yards per target while being "force-fed" was 7.34.  Not terrible, and better than Stevie Johnson's per-target yardage with us.  His career average is 7.65.  Not great, not bad.

 

If Mack Hollins is our 5th or 6th receiving option, I kinda think we might be in good shape.

[akcash]

I’m glad we got Mack Hollins. I could see him being the starter opposite Samuel day one. I think if Coleman needs more time to develop Mack can step in day one and produce at the level similar to Gabe Davis last year. Great job by Beane. 
 

I also think by default Josh will raise the level of most of our newer wide receivers play that they might not have had before playing with lesser talented quarterbacks.

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

1) I'm not saying it's an apples-to-apples comparison or conclusive proof I am just saying you can't dismiss out-of-hand that the Bills weapons were among the elite...........which saying "nah" kinda' does.   Their WR corps was the most productive and their overall "receiving corps" of WR/RB/TE rank was top 3 in both total receiving yards and TD's.   Does a great QB like Allen elevate those players to some extent?   Sure,  but there were A LOT of other great QB's in 2020.   Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady all could have been MVP in addition to runner-up Allen........DeShaun Watson threw for 4800+ yards with an absurd 8.9 yards per attempt,   Russell Wilson threw 40 TD passes.  

 

2) It's not very likely that the "WR corps" would rank higher at the end of the season.   They are ranked there because that's their expected performance level this season relative to their peers.   That's the point.   And it is the WR corps.......not the receiving corps.    ESPN recently ranked the Bills cast of weapons("sometimes" called a receiving corps) as 24th in the league.   Slightly higher because of above average TE and RB group.

 

3) Correct, there is relevant data.   That's what the statistical models are for.   There is a whole industry with billions of dollars changing hands........the foundation of which begins with projecting theses guys stats.    

 

4) The reality is that it all looks easier in the offseason.   It's far from easy to get open and make plays in the NFL as a receiver.   Just like it's far from easy to rush the passer.   Or command and control double teams as a NT.   Those realities hit drought era Bills fans in the mouth every September for 16 years.   What we should be able to admit is that star players command extra attention and that extra attention creates greater opportunity for others.   I'm not overstating anything.   It's reality.   It's a matchup league.  

Regarding point 2): The data for ranking WR rooms going into a season, is a lot foggier for some teams than it is for others. It is especially foggy for the Bills for numerous reasons-- Shakir is our only returning WR, the data for the FA WRs comes from other teams, and QBs (far lesser teams, and QBs for most of them), and the way they get used, and who rises in the system is speculatory. I submit that that uncertainty alone will push the Bills WR room ranking down from teams for which the data is more relevant. And if you judge someone like Curtis Samuel on his past performance, without applying the context of the unquestionably better situation he will be entering with the Bills, then it's reasonable to believe he will exceed expectations. That 2020 group of Diggs, Beasley, and Brown, who all had career years with Allen, provide compelling evidence for an optimist like myself.

 

Regarding point 4): Perhaps I've misrepresented your opinion regarding Shakir, or whomever ascends to WR#1, and the "extra attention" that receiver will attract. Obviously, that will happen. But some on this thread seem to suggest that Khalil Shakir is going to be smothered, or at least receive the same attention that Diggs did. But I don't think it's going to be as significant as all that. Regardless of what personnel is on the field-- 12, 11, or even that jumbo package that Brady seems to love-- there will almost always be four legit receivers on the field, and often five. 

 

But, you're definitely right about one thing: It does all look easier in the offseason. At least, for an optimist like myself. But, for the pessimists around here, it seems to go the other way.

 

 

Edited July 17 by Rocky Landing

[Pokebball]

Most important skillsets are ability to separate (not necessarily speed) and getting the 50/50 balls. And honestly, both of these were my biggest frustration these past few years. I think we're better in both areas this coming season.

[Rocky Landing]

7 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Most important skillsets are ability to separate (not necessarily speed) and getting the 50/50 balls. And honestly, both of these were my biggest frustration these past few years. I think we're better in both areas this coming season.

I would put catch %, and a low drop-rate above the 50/50 balls. I would put route running, and versatility above that as well. For example, I'd rather have Coleman be able to run a proper fade, than rely on a contested catch. YAC's pretty important, also-- and something we've lacked from some of our receivers.

 

It's an interesting discussion, though. I wonder how some of our other, illustrious contributors prioritize a WR's skillsets?

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

2) It's not very likely that the "WR corps" would rank higher at the end of the season.   They are ranked there because that's their expected performance level this season relative to their peers.   That's the point.   And it is the WR corps.......not the receiving corps.    ESPN recently ranked the Bills cast of weapons("sometimes" called a receiving corps) as 24th in the league.   Slightly higher because of above average TE and RB group.

 

What @Rocky Landingis saying though is that a BIG part of their rankings are the unknown.  Keon is a rookie where people have been split on him and Shakir just put up an insane YPT, Catch %, and led the Bills in receiving over our final 10 games but we have not seen him in a bigger role and without Diggs here.  Samuel who is respected, has never played with Allen or any QB that should be starting in the NFL, yet still has been able to be productive.  

 

And with ESPN ranking the Bills weapons 24th, that again is again factoring in a lot of the unknown from our youth because we haven't seen them post Diggs (or at all yet in Buffalo like Keon, Davis, and Samuel) to reasonably know what to expect this year from them.  Kincaid put up 4th most rec by a rookie TE in NFL history last year to go along with Shakir's and Cook's breakouts.  But, all of that happened with a Diggs on the roster, so will they keep ascending in bigger roles with Diggs gone is a question yet to be answered.  Brady had a strong start in Buffalo, but now its his offense being installed, one where Allen is also learning a new system.  

 

Point is, it is not like they are ranked 24th because the opinion is that Kincaid is not very good...Shakir is not very good...Keon is not very good.  They are ranked 24th because those guys who are expected to be the bigger parts of the offense bring potential rather than a proven track record while also having Allen learn now his 3 system in 3 seasons.  

 

But lets look at what we do know...pretty much every receiver the past 4 or 5 years that has been one of our top 3 receivers has put up career highs catching passes from Josh Allen, and the ones who didn't were the ones who were hurt like Crowder and Sanders.  

 

So, saying it is "not very likely" that the WR Corps would rank higher at the end of the season doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  Because the rankings and expectations are set low right now because of the unknown, but the odds are that playing with Allen that they will certainly exceed the low expectations being set preseason.  I would happily take the over on a bet about where they finish compared to their current ranking either as a WR Corp or as Weapons overall.  

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Avisan said:

Where do you, personally, expect the Bills to rank in terms of offensive passing production at the end of the 2024 season?

 

 

Since I've probably answered this a dozen or more times on TSW this offseason and you are new here..........why don't you share your own personal opinion on that.

[Avisan]

11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Since I've probably answered this a dozen or more times on TSW this offseason and you are new here..........why don't you share your own personal opinion on that.

Top 10, and I think closer to 5 than 10.

 

Is nearly seven years new, now?

[Avisan]

@BADOLBILZ After a quick attempted peek, I'm opting not to dig through months of posts to find your hot take(s) regarding where exactly you expect our passing offense to rank.  Since you've said it so many times, taking the 5 seconds to type out 6 characters and hit reply should be pretty trivial.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Pokebball said:

Most important skillsets are ability to separate (not necessarily speed) and getting the 50/50 balls. And honestly, both of these were my biggest frustration these past few years. I think we're better in both areas this coming season.

 

I will say this, both as a WR group and overall set of weapons for the offense (WR, TE, and RB) I think we are better in these areas this year than last year:  Route Running, overall Route Tree, better hands, more cerebral, and overall tougher.  

 

What we are not is say "top heavy" with that proven upper tier type player that Diggs was, but we are deeper with guys who can all run good routes or better, can run a more expansive route tree, are more physical, and just play with a higher IQ and awareness on the field.  

 

And that is why I am in the optimistic camp of this group because I have confidence that the guys on the field can make the play where I didn't share that confidence with as many of the players last year.  And if they can do their job, Allen is going to elevate their games.

 

Edited July 17 by Alphadawg7

[NewEra]

7 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't think the board over-rates the Beasley the Bills saw in 2020.  I think that's Cold Hard Football Facts supportable by data.

 

There's this stat, "receiving success %", which is not some frankenstat you need a PhD in computer science to really understand.  It's simply how often the receiver gains 40% of the yards required on 1D, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down, divided by # targets.

In 2020, Beasley was 7th in the league there.  He and Allen had learned to be on the same page, Josh had learned to throw with anticipation, Josh trusted him, and he fought for every blade of grass.  In 2021, he fell off in both 1D and in success % and that's one reason the Bills moved on.

If good playoff WR is your criterion, we ought to really miss Gabe Davis.

 

 

If by "several", you mean we were starting the Little Sisters of the Poor and a one-winged chicken at LB, yeah.
(edit: credit to @NewEra I think for that LSotP phrase)
 

 

Um Wait Wat?

lol, I can’t take credit for that one.  Can’t recall the originator 

[cle23]

27 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Top 10, and I think closer to 5 than 10.

 

Is nearly seven years new, now?

 

In my opinion, if the Bills rank top 5 in terms of passing production, it would be because Allen is throwing 50+ times a game.  Allen is amazing, but none of his weapons outside the TEs have had steady production.  Even Knox has been up and down, and Kincaid is coming off a promising rookie year, but wasn't a world beater (most aren't as a rookie).  Not to say it can't happen, but rarely do players turn it on 5+ years into their careers.  

[Avisan]

15 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

In my opinion, if the Bills rank top 5 in terms of passing production, it would be because Allen is throwing 50+ times a game.  Allen is amazing, but none of his weapons outside the TEs have had steady production.  Even Knox has been up and down, and Kincaid is coming off a promising rookie year, but wasn't a world beater (most aren't as a rookie).  Not to say it can't happen, but rarely do players turn it on 5+ years into their careers.  

You think Allen will be at 5.4 yards per attempt next season?  If we take his career average of 7.2 YPA and apply it to 4600 yards (Top 5 based on 2023),  that would require 37-38 attempts per game.  To hit 7 based on 2023 would require beating the Chiefs' 4383 yards-- his average attempts per game the last 3 seasons is 35.84, which over 17 games at 7.2 yards per attempt is a season total of 4386 yards.  Of note here is that 7.2 yards per attempt is lower than 2022 (7.6) and 2023 (7.4) so a drop-off due to losing Diggs is already baked in.

[Mikey152]

21 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The biggest change for the Bills since 2020?

 

They had a top 3 WR corps in 2020.

 

They have a bottom 3 to 6 WR corps now.

 

Part of that is the Bills letting their WR corps atrophy greatly...........it's not like the 2020 group was a bunch of kids they failed to build thru the draft so they added a bunch of mid-to-late career vets.  

 

The bigger part of their decline in the league rankings is that the league has had a huge influx of WR talent each season.........and that 2020 talent they had might not rank top 12 in today's game.

 

Defense's all broadly adjusted to taking away big plays because they were getting overwhelmed because everybody suddenly had WR talent. 

 

Offense's have been impacted because they don't execute well enough to string together 10+ play drives without mistakes...........not because defense's have gotten dominant.

 

So offense's are trying to get MORE playmakers.........guys who can still make plays against defense's that are playing bend-but-don't-break defense.  

Which league ranking, exactly, are you referring to?

[Rubes]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I will say this, both as a WR group and overall set of weapons for the offense (WR, TE, and RB) I think we are better in these areas this year than last year:  Route Running, overall Route Tree, better hands, more cerebral, and overall tougher.  

 

What we are not is say "top heavy" with that proven upper tier type player that Diggs was, but we are deeper with guys who can all run good routes or better, can run a more expansive route tree, are more physical, and just play with a higher IQ and awareness on the field.  

 

And that is why I am in the optimistic camp of this group because I have confidence that the guys on the field can make the play where I didn't share that confidence with as many of the players last year.  And if they can do their job, Allen is going to elevate their games.

 

 

I agree with this. My take: one of the benefits that it seems Diggs afforded us was that Dorsey didn't always have to successfully scheme guys open; Diggs was so good at getting open that it covered up when the schemes weren't great or didn't work. Now we're going to have to rely on Brady to put together some really sound schemes for these guys to execute. I've always believed good schemes with technicallly sound WRs will consistently get guys open, even those who aren't superstars. We seem to have that now. Will Brady get the job done? I think the second half of last year was promising in that regard.