I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Avisan]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

This thread has devolved into the ignorant and the aware.  The quibblers and the rational.  The head in the sand types and those with solid vision.  

 

NFL Caliber?  Talk about pure sophistry.  What is that?  How do you define "NFL-caliber"?  Is that a guy on the PS to open the season?  Does that player offer the same potential for "strong production numbers" as say, a guy who had 1,000 yards last year?  

 

This is the mindset of surface-level of analysis that won't go deeper because doing so requires intellect, rational thought, and understanding for how the game is played across the league.  

 

Next year, I can hear it now: Josh begins questioning the team's commitment to putting top-end receiving talent around him.  And McBeane in unison say they already put "NFL-caliber" talent around him.  

 

Oh, sorry.  I'm not allowed to conclude anything before the season begins.  

Yawn.

 

The Bills' wide receiver group consists of a productive WR3 from last year, multiple second-round picks, and proven spot contributors.  It lacks a top end elite talent, which isn't ideal, but Shakir, Samuel, MVS, and Mack Hollins all belong on a professional football field.  Claypool and Coleman are question marks for different reasons, but both have high-end physical traits and Claypool started his career with two solid seasons. 

 

It's a middling group that will be solid if either Coleman or Claypool play close to their potential and straight-up good if they both do.  I think it's likely that Claypool fizzles and Coleman has a ~500 yard season, so I'm expecting a Top 20 group at wideout with good TE and RB performances to complement it.

 

Y'all are acting like we're trotting out Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones, David Nelson, and Naaman Roosevelt as our top 4 again.  It's absurd.  Mack Hollins would have been a starter on that squad, not the 5th or 6th option.

 

Barring injury to Allen, the Bills are going to be a Top 10 overall offense, per usual, with a few rough games against good defenses.  Best start prepping your very, very impressive intellect for that impending reality.

[Billl]

19 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Fine...you go to the store and go to buy literally anything. There are multiple options that are only different colors of said item. Because of the color, some are more expensive than others.

 

Buying the cheaper one because you don't care about the color doesn't mean you don't care about the thing you bought (or maybe you even prefer the cheaper color)

 

You can laugh all you want, but this is pretty much how every team runs their board. They focus on positions and tiers, not on players. Sure, they might have favorites...but focusing on them and taking them before their grade is amateur hour.

These aren’t three identical products though.  A better (but still terrible) analogy in a similar vein would be that you’re choosing from three paintings at an estate sale.  They all look equally nice to you, but the best art dealer in the world is offering you $20 to cut in front of you in line because he thinks one of them is a Picasso.  

 

Even if you don’t know which one that is, you’re probably better off declining the $20 and hoping to get lucky.  You can’t tell them apart, but you can be pretty sure that if there is an actual masterpiece in the bunch, it’s going to be gone after that art dealer makes his selection.  And oh by the way, three more guys got to cut in front of you as well.  At this point, you’re hoping that you either get lucky and all of the guys who cut the line make bad choices or that you get really lucky and every painting at the sale turns out to be worth millions.  It’s just a bad strategy.

[Mikey152]

14 minutes ago, Billl said:

These aren’t three identical products though.  A better (but still terrible) analogy in a similar vein would be that you’re choosing from three paintings at an estate sale.  They all look equally nice to you, but the best art dealer in the world is offering you $20 to cut in front of you in line because he thinks one of them is a Picasso.  

 

Even if you don’t know which one that is, you’re probably better off declining the $20 and hoping to get lucky.  You can’t tell them apart, but you can be pretty sure that if there is an actual masterpiece in the bunch, it’s going to be gone after that art dealer makes his selection.  And oh by the way, three more guys got to cut in front of you as well.  At this point, you’re hoping that you either get lucky and all of the guys who cut the line make bad choices or that you get really lucky and every painting at the sale turns out to be worth millions.  It’s just a bad strategy.

Are you really trying to say that KC WR evaluators are better than Buffalo's?

 

In the last 5 years, the Bills drafted Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir out of 4 picks with none in the first three rounds.

 

The Chiefs, in those same 5 years, Drafted Rice, Moore and Powell (two of them on day 2)

 

Not exactly killing it to the point Id be worried they knew something we didn't. But the point remains that the BILLS had them graded the same and potentially would have taken Coleman at 28 anyway. There is nothing indicating that he wasn't #1 for them in that tier...

[HappyDays]

38 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Barring injury to Allen, the Bills are going to be a Top 10 overall offense

 

Top 10 isn't good enough, that's the issue.

[Alphadawg7]

11 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

What would make me happy: the Bills pass at least 60% of the time, if not more. Our WR corps is either good this year, or else Beane invests the necessary draft capital to make it good for next year.

 

What would make me sad: the Bills de-prioritize the passing offense. They run the ball at least 50% of the time, as part of, gag, "complimentary football." They draft WRs who are also good run blockers. More resources are devoted to the defense, while the offense is denied any premium players at the WR position.

 

The team's best asset is Josh Allen. Building around that asset would make me happy. Getting away from that asset, and doing other stuff instead, would make me sad.

 

Will I be happy or sad? I don't know yet. Ask me again next year, and I should have a more concrete answer.

 

No disrespect, but not only is this not a good strategy at all for a team playing in bad weather, it is the same failed strategy where all anyone could talk about was how we lacked a running game and Josh needs help from the run game.  

 

By no means should we become a run first team when we have Josh Allen, but to disregard the run game again and force the pass no matter what is a terrible approach and one that had us at 5-5 last year and staring at no playoffs.  Running the ball more we went 6-1 and won the division and the 2 seed after a 5-5 start.  Some of you seem to prioritize the "style" of football you personally like over winning football.  

 

What the Bills are fortunate to be able to both pass and run the ball at a high level.  What they need to do is play the style of football that gives this team, this roster, the best chance to win the game against that specific opponent that week, the conditions of the field, etc.  That means there will be games where we are pass heavy, games we are run heavy, and games we are balanced.  To commit to one way to play and force that no matter what when you have a team that is capable of both passing and running the ball is exactly what get's coaches fired.  Many teams do not have that luxury, they may only be good at one or the other (or neither).  Bills are fortunate to be able to do both, and to take one of those away as dramatically as you are wishing for is absolutely the wrong way.  

 

Look at Dallas last year...we DOMINATED that game with Allen doing very little which killed my fantasy teams that week, but who cares, we crushed them and it was glorious.  I didn't care that it was because we ran all day on them because we could.  That is what we need more of...adjusting to what our opponent is giving us and play to win the game, not to entertain fans with their favorite style of football.  Then there is the opposite like when we lost to the lowly Mac Jones led Pats where he threw like 3 total passes and all we did was try and pass in a blizzard because we couldn't run the ball.  

 

The good news is that there is 0% chance the Bills are going to over commit anyway to the pass or the run, but its just a wild thing to hope for.  

[Avisan]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Top 10 isn't good enough, that's the issue.

Not good enough for what?

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Avisan said:

Not good enough for what?

 

A championship?

[Avisan]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

A championship?

Based on..?

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Avisan said:

Based on..?

 

Based on our defensive performance every single playoff run every single year. What team have you been watching? We'll probably need a top 1 offense to compete for a championship, honestly. Top 10 isn't acceptable. That's the bare minimum expectation with Allen.

[BillsVet]

54 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Yawn.

 

The Bills' wide receiver group consists of a productive WR3 from last year, multiple second-round picks, and proven spot contributors.  It lacks a top end elite talent, which isn't ideal, but Shakir, Samuel, MVS, and Mack Hollins all belong on a professional football field.  Claypool and Coleman are question marks for different reasons, but both have high-end physical traits and Claypool started his career with two solid seasons. 

 

It's a middling group that will be solid if either Coleman or Claypool play close to their potential and straight-up good if they both do.  I think it's likely that Claypool fizzles and Coleman has a ~500 yard season, so I'm expecting a Top 20 group at wideout with good TE and RB performances to complement it.

 

Y'all are acting like we're trotting out Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones, David Nelson, and Naaman Roosevelt as our top 4 again.  It's absurd.  Mack Hollins would have been a starter on that squad, not the 5th or 6th option.

 

Barring injury to Allen, the Bills are going to be a Top 10 overall offense, per usual, with a few rough games against good defenses.  Best start prepping your very, very impressive intellect for that impending reality.

 

If you're tired, best to get some rest and quit quibbling in this thread.  All the massive stretching you've taken here is clearly tiring you out.  

 

 

P.S. Stevie Johnson has more 1,000 yard seasons (in a 16 game schedule) than Buffalo's entire receiving group heading into camp does in their careers. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

If I am not mistaken, during the final 10 games, didn't Diggs snap count % kept going down?

He had a higher percentage of snaps in 2023 than he did in 2022.

 

the only game he had less than 60% of offensive snaps was the barrage against Dallas.

[Avisan]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Based on our defensive performance every single playoff run every single year. What team have you been watching? We'll probably need a top 1 offense to compete for a championship, honestly. Top 10 isn't acceptable. That's the bare minimum expectation with Allen.

Okay, so this sounds more like a complaint about the defense's postseason performances, which is valid.  Plenty of Top 10 offenses have won a championship.

 

Incidentally, the Chiefs had an offense well outside the Top 10 despite a HoF TE and Reid running the show last season and still pulled it off.  Frankly our offensive performance doesn't matter as much for postseason results as our defense, so I don't see why Top 3 vs. Top 10 matters that much.  The offense has been good enough to get past the Chiefs in the postseason.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Okay, so this sounds more like a complaint about the defense's postseason performances, which is valid.  Plenty of Top 10 offenses have won a championship.

 

Incidentally, the Chiefs had an offense well outside the Top 10 despite a HoF TE and Reid running the show last season and still pulled it off.  Frankly our offensive performance doesn't matter as much for postseason results as our defense, so I don't see why Top 3 vs. Top 10 matters that much.  The offense has been good enough to get past the Chiefs in the postseason.

all we need is the best defense in football putting together a dominant postseason run. Got it. Good plan.

[Avisan]

6 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

P.S. Stevie Johnson has more 1,000 yard seasons (in a 16 game schedule) than Buffalo's entire receiving group heading into camp does in their careers. 

Correct.  Stevie Johnson did that as the number one target in the Gailey-Fitz offense.  He did absolutely nothing in the NFL outside of that role.  Thank you for helping demonstrate the point.

 

Stevie Johson averaged ~7.1 yards per target as a Bill.  For reference, Diggs averaged ~8.3 despite his underwhelming back half of the year performance last season.

[Mikey152]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

all we need is the best defense in football putting together a dominant postseason run. Got it. Good plan.

Or, we can just completely forget defense and spend all our money and draft picks on WR...we will definitely win the fantasy football championship super bowl then

[Avisan]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

all we need is the best defense in football putting together a dominant postseason run. Got it. Good plan.

I mean, Top 10 would probably cut it?  I would definitely argue a dominant front 4 is more important to getting past KC than a great WR room.  When you're not the dynasty, you have to get a little lucky/have the stars align to make it through.

[FireChans]

Just now, Avisan said:

I mean, Top 10 would probably cut it?  I would definitely argue a dominant front 4 is more important to getting past KC than a great WR room.  When you're not the dynasty, you have to get a little lucky/have the stars align to make it through.

We have had a top 10 defense the last 3 seasons. It clearly has NOT cut it lol.

2 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Or, we can just completely forget defense and spend all our money and draft picks on WR...we will definitely win the fantasy football championship super bowl then

Ah yes, all those elite defensive players we acquired this off-season. 

[Mikey152]

If you count Diggs dead money, the Bills are spending ~17% of their cap on WR (depends on final roster). That's more than any other position, including QB.

 

Flat out, if you don't like the WR room right now...it's mostly a Diggs thing. 

Edited July 16 by Mikey152

[Avisan]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We have had a top 10 defense the last 3 seasons. It clearly has NOT cut it lol.

Ah yes, all those elite defensive players we acquired this off-season. 

Oh, I thought we were discussing postseason performances, since you invoked a dominant postseason run specifically.  The Bills need better horses on the D Line imo, getting to the QB with four is by far the best bet for slowing down top offenses in the playoffs.  The Giants and Buccs are very visible 21st century examples of that.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Oh, I thought we were discussing postseason performances, since you invoked a dominant postseason run specifically.  The Bills need better horses on the D Line imo, getting to the QB with four is by far the best bet for slowing down top offenses in the playoffs.  The Giants and Buccs are very visible 21st century examples of that.

What horses should we get