I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Alphadawg7]

15 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

@BarleyNY already spoke to the two different things you are conflating regarding "X" and "WR1".

 

But it's not a "confirmed fact" in either regard.    Beane said Coleman was going to be an X receiver after he was drafted but then signed MVS.........who is basically only of any use as an X.   I'd call that hedging a bet.

 

I think a particular type of amnesia that the offseason has wrought upon some is that being a highly productive WR isn't just about physical traits.    The Bills have ALWAYS been an option-route based offense since Allen was drafted.   It's a pretty complicated system for a young WR.   That's likely to remain mostly the case.

 

The system requires the WR's to be able to read what the defense is trying to do pre-snap in order to be on the same page as the QB.    Coleman is pretty raw.   Think of how hard it's been for NFL legacy Kaiir Elam to acclimate.   Think of how it took Davante Adams 3 full seasons to learn how to play the position well in the NFL.   And he's my ceiling comp for Coleman.       

I didn’t say Keon will lead the team in receiving, I said he is the WR1 X role.  MVS is a depth player to add a deep threat speed element when needed.  He isn’t our starting WR1 barring injuries.  
 

Let me remind you that you originally said “heading into the season”, not how the season finishes.  So “hedging your bets” with MVS is irrelevant because that is a statement that if Keon falters they can turn to MVS later.  Today it’s Keon’s job.  Can he lose it, sure, any player can lose their job through poor performance, but make no mistake about it, it’s 100% Keon’s job right now.
 

And see, you’re referring to the actual position of WR1, which again is again right now Keon, not Samuel.  And as far as the top target goes, of course that can be anyone, including someone that isn’t even a WR…but it’s still not Samuel.
 

But once again, nothing about how Brady has discussed using Samuel remotely suggests his plans for him are to be the primary target for the Bills.  He has talked about finding ways to get Samuel the ball including as a RB.  That isn’t what you say about a guy who they plan to lead the team as a WR1.  
 

And your point about the offense and its difficulty are correct, which is why both Kincaid and Shakir are the 2 favorites to lead the team in receiving right now as they have been here already and are the only ones with any experience and connection established with Allen.  And the way the coaches, Beane, and players have talked about both Kincaid and Shakir, it seems they see them as primary players in the passing game too right now.  

 

Edited July 15 by Alphadawg7

[BillsVet]

17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I think a particular type of amnesia that the offseason has wrought upon some is that being a highly productive WR isn't just about physical traits.    The Bills have ALWAYS been an option-route based offense since Allen was drafted.   It's a pretty complicated system for a young WR.   That's likely to remain mostly the case.

 

The system requires the WR's to be able to read what the defense is trying to do pre-snap in order to be on the same page as the QB.    Coleman is pretty raw.   Think of how hard it's been for NFL legacy Kaiir Elam to acclimate.   Think of how it took Davante Adams 3 full seasons to learn how to play the position well in the NFL.   And he's my ceiling comp for Coleman.       

 

Vet receivers can make mistakes in that offense like the INT Week 18 at Miami where Davis went left in the EZ and Allen threw right comes to mind.   

 

For that reason, I can see them going with veterans and maybe Coleman earns more snaps by mid-season or later.  Hard to imagine he'll learn the offense AND opposing defense coverages well enough to not only play, but produce as their X in that offense.  

Edited July 15 by BillsVet

[BarleyNY]

17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The WR1 is the X WR.

 

Obviously you’re free to use those interchangeably, but it’ll cause unnecessary confusion since they are much more commonly used to mean different things. So it’s on you if people misunderstand you. 

 

As for the rest of your post, I was not arguing any of that. Just pointing out where a misunderstanding might have been. 

 

Since you’ve made a lot of incorrect assumptions about my opinions, I’ll put my take on Coleman here for the record. I was not impressed by his senior season’s tape and had a 3rd round grade on him. That was driven by potential and “wow” moments that made him intriguing. His performance was very inconsistent though and he did not impress on a play-by-play basis. Thus the 3rd round grade. 

 

In general, I very much dislike contested catch WRs as they rarely find success in the NFL. But here’s the thing - on the occasions that they do, they are often among the most elite. Coleman obviously has some special gifts and he is young and still developing. So he’s definitely got a shot at hitting and becoming one of the best WRs in the game. The Bills swung for the fences with him and while my brain tells me the odds favor a miss, it also knows there is the possibility they knocked it out of the park. My heart is certainly rooting hard for the home run. 

[BarleyNY]

6 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Vet receivers can make mistakes in that offense like the INT Week 18 at Miami where Davis went left in the EZ and Allen threw right comes to mind.   

 

For that reason, I can see them going with veterans and maybe Coleman earns more snaps by mid-season or later.  Hard to imagine he'll learn the offense AND opposing defense coverages well enough to not only play, but produce as their X in that offense.  

 

Agreed. There’s no reason to rush Coleman onto the field. He’s young, having just turned 21. They should bring him along slowly and let him earn his way on the field. His emotion is such a great asset. Use it to build his confidence with success on the field as he’s ready. 

[Alphadawg7]

24 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Since you’ve made a lot of incorrect assumptions about my opinions, I’ll put my take on Coleman here for the record. I was not impressed by his senior season’s tape and had a 3rd round grade on him. That was driven by potential and “wow” moments that made him intriguing. His performance was very inconsistent though and he did not impress on a play-by-play basis. Thus the 3rd round grade. 

 

In general, I very much dislike contested catch WRs as they rarely find success in the NFL. But here’s the thing - on the occasions that they do, they are often among the most elite. Coleman obviously has some special gifts and he is young and still developing. So he’s definitely got a shot at hitting and becoming one of the best WRs in the game. The Bills swung for the fences with him and while my brain tells me the odds favor a miss, it also knows there is the possibility they knocked it out of the park. My heart is certainly rooting hard for the home run. 

Im not sure what you are referring to, I didn’t make any assumptions about any of your opinions and even specifically said I agreed with one of them.  All I did was give a deeper explanation of my original post which was about Samuel more than it was about Keon.  
 

I have no issue either with your opinion on Keon even though I had a higher grade on him and liked him coming into the draft.  I mean we are talking about a player who’s never taken an NFL snap, all anyone has right now is opinions and none are right or wrong until we see it on the field.  
 

For the record:  I think Keon has been misplabeled by too many as a “contested catch WR” based on how Florida St. used him and Johnny as twin towers.  I think he has the potential is to be a blend of DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall.  

Edited July 15 by Alphadawg7

[Billl]

59 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The WR1 is the X WR

WR1 is a label, not a position.  Larry Fitzgerald was a slot receiver for half of his career after Arians arrived in 2013.  John Brown didn’t magically become their WR1 when move was made.  It was still Fitz.  

[DapperCam]

40 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Vet receivers can make mistakes in that offense like the INT Week 18 at Miami where Davis went left in the EZ and Allen threw right comes to mind.   

 

Mistakes like that were Gabe Davis' specialty.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

WR1 is a label, not a position.  Larry Fitzgerald was a slot receiver for half of his career after Arians arrived in 2013.  John Brown didn’t magically become their WR1 when move was made.  It was still Fitz.  

Its already been discussed in like several posts since by me and others.  
 

WR1 is often referred as a position (X) and also used as a label for their ranking in the pecking order of their team.  Beane even used the WR1 terminology about Keon playing the X and also some Z.  WR2 is often referred to as the “Z”, with the slot or “Y” commonly referred to as WR3.  And receivers will move around and play snaps at multiple of these positions where they obviously play more snaps at one over the others.  
 

But Curtis Samuel is neither “WR1” by position or label.  

Edited July 15 by Alphadawg7

[Einstein's Dog]

21 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Obviously you’re free to use those interchangeably, but it’ll cause unnecessary confusion since they are much more commonly used to mean different things. So it’s on you if people misunderstand you. 

 

As for the rest of your post, I was not arguing any of that. Just pointing out where a misunderstanding might have been. 

 

Since you’ve made a lot of incorrect assumptions about my opinions, I’ll put my take on Coleman here for the record. I was not impressed by his senior season’s tape and had a 3rd round grade on him. That was driven by potential and “wow” moments that made him intriguing. His performance was very inconsistent though and he did not impress on a play-by-play basis. Thus the 3rd round grade. 

 

In general, I very much dislike contested catch WRs as they rarely find success in the NFL. But here’s the thing - on the occasions that they do, they are often among the most elite. Coleman obviously has some special gifts and he is young and still developing. So he’s definitely got a shot at hitting and becoming one of the best WRs in the game. The Bills swung for the fences with him and while my brain tells me the odds favor a miss, it also knows there is the possibility they knocked it out of the park. My heart is certainly rooting hard for the home run. 

I seem to like K Coleman more than you.   one thing that may have had appeal for K Coleman was his attitude and interview.  He will be a fit in the new young culture they're bringing in.  

 

The disconnect I have with the FO on this move is, for a young, developing player with special gifts you take him at the end of the first.  The small move down into the second would seem to be for someone with a lower ceiling who was more pro-ready for immediate benefits - a McConkey type.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I seem to like K Coleman more than you.   one thing that may have had appeal for K Coleman was his attitude and interview.  He will be a fit in the new young culture they're bringing in.  

 

The disconnect I have with the FO on this move is, for a young, developing player with special gifts you take him at the end of the first.  The small move down into the second would seem to be for someone with a lower ceiling who was more pro-ready for immediate benefits - a McConkey type.

 

He is certainly a very likable young man and is very easy to root for. I get what you’re saying about the 5th year option tho. He’s young so it does seem like it would be good to have in case he develops slowly. I’m not that worried about it though. We should know who he is in time to extend him or move on within the next 3 or 4 seasons. But if it was me and he was my guy, then I would have just picked him at 32 (or 28) and kept the 5th year option too. 

Edited July 15 by BarleyNY

[Mikey152]

On 7/14/2024 at 12:14 PM, GoBills808 said:

Not to the extent they'll be required, no

Curtis Samuel has some of the best win rates in the entire NFL. 

 

Listen, I get it...everyone is looking for reasons the Bills will fail again, and WR is the whipping boy this year like MLB was the whipping boy last season. 

 

There is a difference between incapable and unproven. The Bills have SEVERAL talented receiving options drafted in the first two rounds of the draft in the last decade. Coleman was basically a first rounder. Kincaid, Claypool, Cook and Samuel are all high draft picks and highly skilled players that have had success in the NFL. None of them have been stars, sure, but none of them have really gotten that opportunity yet, either. Add in guys like Shakir and MVS who have a bit less pedigree, but have produced in limited capacity, and you have a roster full of maybes. Is that ideal?  Probably not...but IMO you are putting WAY too much weight on proven/notproven

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Again,  it comes down to likelihoods.

 

And it's statistically unlikely that the receivers that the Bills have are going to be very good.  

 

That's why they are going to rank somewhere between 27th-30th in the NFL as a unit going into this season.   

 

Maybe the Bills, Brady and Allen suddenly get ahead of the curve at WR for a change and get a lot more out of this group than they are projected to produce.

 

It's just not likely.  

Agree it comes down to likelihoods, but I would say we dont have a ton of data on how likely many of these things are.  There would be points and counter points that are both unknown (how much squatting in the middle vs allens arm scaring them is a good example). 

 

To your last point about getting more WR production than projected I think there is pretty significant data to say that will happen.  Beasley, Brown, Diggs all had career years and outproduced expectations after their move.  If I could guess your counter point (and its one of those unknowns), they are coming in with low expectations so beating those doesnt necessarily mean we have a good offense (even though we expect to out perform those expectations).  

4 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Curtis Samuel has some of the best win rates in the entire NFL. 

 

Listen, I get it...everyone is looking for reasons the Bills will fail again, and WR is the whipping boy this year like MLB was the whipping boy last season. 

 

There is a difference between incapable and unproven. The Bills have SEVERAL talented receiving options drafted in the first two rounds of the draft in the last decade. Coleman was basically a first rounder. Kincaid, Claypool, Cook and Samuel are all high draft picks and highly skilled players that have had success in the NFL. None of them have been stars, sure, but none of them have really gotten that opportunity yet, either. Add in guys like Shakir and MVS who have a bit less pedigree, but have produced in limited capacity, and you have a roster full of maybes. Is that ideal?  Probably not...but IMO you are putting WAY too much weight on proven/notproven

 

 

God Hamler flying so far under the radar.  Don't know what to make of him, but if hes over injuries he brings supreme speed and playmaking ability.  Your line about options drafted in the first two rounds reminded me of him and he wasnt even on your list.

Edited July 15 by YattaOkasan

[Mikey152]

9 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree it comes down to likelihoods, but I would say we dont have a ton of data on how likely many of these things are.  There would be points and counter points that are both unknown (how much squatting in the middle vs allens arm scaring them is a good example). 

 

To your last point about getting more WR production than projected I think there is pretty significant data to say that will happen.  Beasley, Brown, Diggs all had career years and outproduced expectations after their move.  If I could guess your counter point (and its one of those unknowns), they are coming in with low expectations so beating those doesnt necessarily mean we have a good offense (even though we expect to out perform those expectations).  

God Hamler flying so far under the radar.  Don't know what to make of him, but if hes over injuries he brings supreme speed and playmaking ability.

I thought about listing him, too...but I'm not trying to give more unnecessary ammo to the "he's unproven" crowd. I saw him play plenty at Penn State, and he is about as explosive as they come. I think he is a bit more unlikely because of his injury history and moreso because his hands are inconsistent...but he is another guy in the same vein that could explode in the right circumstances.

 

Further proves the point, though....there are several talented players on the Bills offense. For whatever reason, they have not been able to turn that in to careers worthy of that talent so far. Glass half full thinks this is the year for at least a few of them...glass half empty thinks it isn't.

 

what I don't get is why there are so many glass half empty fans on a Bills message board. If you are that frustrated in the offseason, why even be a fan in the first place? Perhaps you need to take a look at yourselves in the mirror and check your pride at the door.

Edited July 15 by Mikey152

[YattaOkasan]

5 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I thought about listing him, too...but I'm not trying to give more unnecessary ammo to the "he's unproven" crowd. I saw him play plenty at Penn State, and he is about as explosive as they come. I think he is a bit more unlikely because of his injury history and moreso because his hands are inconsistent...but he is another guy in the same vein that could explode in the right circumstances.

 

Further proves the point, though....there are several talented players on the Bills offense. For whatever reason, they have not been able to turn that in to careers worthy of that talent so far. Glass half full thinks this is the year for at least a few of them...glass half empty thinks it isn't.

 

what I don't get is why there are so many glass half empty fans on a Bills message board. If you are that frustrated in the offseason, why even be a fan in the first place? Perhaps you need to take a look at yourselves in the mirror and check your pride at the door.

Appreciate the thought about why you didnt add.  

 

For the glass half empty, we are doing something new (not just for us but the league in some ways).  There have been a handful of times when 4 players got 600+ receiving yards on the same team.  Yet there was some strong thought we would do that (sorta by necessity, which not a great place to be).  But I allow myself to be hopeful cause in 2020 we tied (shouldve been sole owners if not for a Taiwan Jones drop) of the number of unique players with a receiving TD.  Counter to that is what was a Daboll offense. 

 

Im sorta surprised were not having the same conversations about the defense too where we seem to be shifting towards leaning on our pass rush rather than our coverage in years past.  

[Jauronimo]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I seem to like K Coleman more than you.   one thing that may have had appeal for K Coleman was his attitude and interview.  He will be a fit in the new young culture they're bringing in.  

 

The disconnect I have with the FO on this move is, for a young, developing player with special gifts you take him at the end of the first.  The small move down into the second would seem to be for someone with a lower ceiling who was more pro-ready for immediate benefits - a McConkey type.

You would like the pick more if more resources were allocated to it?

[YattaOkasan]

12 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

You would like the pick more if more resources were allocated to it?

I think its fair to be concerned that what we lost (5th year option) wasnt worth the gain (move up from 200 to 141).  Since we got Van Pran at 141 and I dont think he wouldve been available at 200 Im ok with it.  Though arguement could be that get Van Pran with 144 and then the cost of staying at 32 is a 2025 4th round pick (again im good trading out of 1st round).  

[Bill from NYC]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I seem to like K Coleman more than you.   one thing that may have had appeal for K Coleman was his attitude and interview.  He will be a fit in the new young culture they're bringing in.  

 

The disconnect I have with the FO on this move is, for a young, developing player with special gifts you take him at the end of the first.  The small move down into the second would seem to be for someone with a lower ceiling who was more pro-ready for immediate benefits - a McConkey type.

You make an excellent point. If McDermott loved Coleman SO much, why would he be willing to trade away not once but twice before selecting him? 

Now, he may have had some sort of agreement with the Panthers prior to the second trade. This I will admit, but still; he received a scant return for the deal. 

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

You make an excellent point. If McDermott loved Coleman SO much, why would he be willing to trade away not once but twice before selecting him? 

Now, he may have had some sort of agreement with the Panthers prior to the second trade. This I will admit, but still; he received a scant return for the deal. 

 

He may have had strong confidence that he would be there with the second trade.

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

He may have had strong confidence that he would be there with the second trade.

 

He did seem excited that Coleman ran a poor 40-yard time at the Combine.

[Coach Tuesday]

Has this been sorted yet?  I assume we have consensus here?