I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Thurman#1]

3 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Childless men and women have an overall higher mortality than adults with children, meaning that they die earlier, recent studies show. Mothers and fathers with two biological children have the lowest mortality risks, but it increases for parents with three or more biological children.
 

From an article in Journal of Epedemiogy and Comm Health entitled “Payback time? Influence of having children on mortality in old age”

 

 

Thank you.

 

Worth noting.

 

[FireChans]

22 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Dude, if I were to mail you a gyroscope, a GPS app and the best map available, could you find the point then? Or are you simply unwilling to try?

 

Yeah, Mahomes had relatively bad passing stats. AND THEY WON A LOMBARDI TROPHY!!! Which is more important?

 

I genuinely believe that you do not know the answer to that question. So I'll tell you. Winning the championship is the goal. Not gettiong your QB good passing stats. Talk to Mahomes, Allen, Reid, McDermott, anyone on any of these teams, and they will tell you the same thing. 

 

If you can win a championship by building up your defense and other areas at the temporary expense of your WR room ....

 

YOU DO IT!!!!

 

And the Chiefs have proved you indeed can

This is very funny. So much reductive logic. They won the Super Bowl, so it was a good idea. Oookay.

[Doc]

31 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Rice would be #1 WR on this team in target share. I think you could argue that Brown would be too. And Kelce > Kincaid unless he gets old and falls off. 
 

So besides their top 3 weapons being better than our top 3 weapons, I don’t know what is so great about them.

 

If Rice gets suspended, that top 3 takes a massive hit.  If Kelce declines as his production and age suggest...

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

This is very funny. So much reductive logic. They won the Super Bowl, so it was a good idea. Oookay.

 

 

Yeah that kind of logic used to be the norm around here during the drought.

 

Remember when Marv took over as Bills GM and chose the strategy of signing free agents that nobody else wanted because the belief was that the Patriots were winning SB's with a cast of nobodies who bonded around their lack of individual identity?

 

Man we had a whole board full of dopes who were drinking that Kool-aid.

 

The Chiefs have been trying to have an excellent WR corps.

 

They have drafted one in the first or second round in each of the last 3 drafts.

 

And, in truth,  they've always had at least 2 receiving targets finish in the top 32 of receiving yards in the NFL in each season of Mahomes career.    So contrary to @Thurman#1 hypothesis about being good at WR not mattering..........the fact remains that teams that reach the SB normally have that dynamic of two highly productive receiving targets.    In fact, the quality of the second receiving option has been one of the biggest indicators of whether a team will go deep into the playoffs for a very long time now.  

 

The closest the Bills got to a SB,  coincidentally,  was the only year under Allen when they had 2 receiving targets in the top 32 in receiving yardage.

[njbuff]

I think the Samuel signing might be the biggest signing of the Allen era.

 

Samuel is seriously underrated and if he stays healthy, he can easily post career numbers with Allen throwing to him. 

[BarleyNY]

I think everyone realizes that it’s possible to win a championship while fielding a below average WR corps. But most also realize that betting big on exceptions is a poor strategy. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, njbuff said:

I think the Samuel signing might be the biggest signing of the Allen era.

 

Samuel is seriously underrated and if he stays healthy, he can easily post career numbers with Allen throwing to him. 

 

Not that simple......let alone "easy".

 

He's basically been a WR3 all of his NFL career........including his previous "career" season in Carolina.    

 

Now he's probably WR1 going into the season and getting matched up against the best CB's in the league instead of nickel and dime backs.

 

HUGE upgrade in competition for him.   

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Not that simple......let alone "easy".

 

He's basically been a WR3 all of his NFL career........including his previous "career" season in Carolina.    

 

Now he's probably WR1 going into the season and getting matched up against the best CB's in the league instead of nickel and dime backs.

 

HUGE upgrade in competition for him.   

Will a 0-17 record meet your wishes?

[Alphadawg7]

Just saw an interesting stat comparison on IG from one of the Bills fan pages…

 

Said last 10 Bills games:

Shakir - 462 yards
Diggs - 422 yards

 

Shakir - 38 targets 

Diggs - 80 targets

 

Not that we didn’t already know how inefficient Diggs has been, especially back half of the last 2 seasons and postseasons, but that is just a crazy discrepancy to have less yards on more than double the targets.

 

To be fair, I don’t expect Diggs to be as inefficient all year in Houston as he was his last 10 games here, nor do I expect to see Shakir be as hyper-efficient as last year with a lot more target volume.  
 

But I do suspect Shakir will still be more efficient with his targets here than Diggs was the last 2 seasons for us.  

Edited July 14 by Alphadawg7

[BADOLBILZ]

28 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Just saw an interesting stat comparison on IG from one of the Bills fan pages…

 

Said last 10 Bills games:

Shakir - 462 yards
Diggs - 422 yards

 

Shakir - 38 targets 

Diggs - 80 targets

 

Not that we didn’t already know how inefficient Diggs has been, especially back half of the last 2 seasons and postseasons, but that is just a crazy discrepancy to have less yards on more than double the targets.

 

To be fair, I don’t expect Diggs to be as inefficient all year in Houston as he was his last 10 games here, nor do I expect to see Shakir be as hyper-efficient as last year with a lot more target volume.  
 

But I do suspect Shakir will still be more efficient with his targets here than Diggs was the last 2 seasons for us.  

 

 

Yeah but the flip is that in Diggs first 9 games he put up 834 yards (93 yards per game).

 

Basically double the 46 per game that Shakir averaged over the last 10.

 

46 yards per game(782 yards in a 17 game season) simply isn't going to be the kind of "top 2" receiver production they need.

 

Shakir played well down the stretch but the Bills passing game also just kinda' sucked after Brady took over.

[balln]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Just saw an interesting stat comparison on IG from one of the Bills fan pages…

 

Said last 10 Bills games:

Shakir - 462 yards
Diggs - 422 yards

 

Shakir - 38 targets 

Diggs - 80 targets

 

Not that we didn’t already know how inefficient Diggs has been, especially back half of the last 2 seasons and postseasons, but that is just a crazy discrepancy to have less yards on more than double the targets.

 

To be fair, I don’t expect Diggs to be as inefficient all year in Houston as he was his last 10 games here, nor do I expect to see Shakir be as hyper-efficient as last year with a lot more target volume.  
 

But I do suspect Shakir will still be more efficient with his targets here than Diggs was the last 2 seasons for us.  

Diggs was no longer a threat / deep / efficient option. And he’s a diva and a head case. And they just wanted to make him happy and get him some easy touches and catches. How many dumb at the line wr screens they throw diggs way that got blown up. He needed to go. And I’m happy he’s gone

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah but the flip is that in Diggs first 9 games he put up 834 yards (93 yards per game).

 

Basically double the 46 per game that Shakir averaged over the last 10.

 

46 yards per game(782 yards in a 17 game season) simply isn't going to be the kind of "top 2" receiver production they need.

 

Shakir played well down the stretch but the Bills passing game also just kinda' sucked after Brady took over.

I’d want to know the pass defense rankings / analytics on the opponents they played in that split 

[BillsVet]

The hyperbolic responses in this thread.  

 

Wow.  

 

Never seen anything like it on TSW before.  

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah but the flip is that in Diggs first 9 games he put up 834 yards (93 yards per game).

 

Basically double the 46 per game that Shakir averaged over the last 10.

 

46 yards per game(782 yards in a 17 game season) simply isn't going to be the kind of "top 2" receiver production they need.

 

Shakir played well down the stretch but the Bills passing game also just kinda' sucked after Brady took over.

 

This is not a fair comparison or projection though. Shakir was 5th in targets last year, how are you going to project his yards out over 17 games and then compare that to “top 2” WR expected production when that is based on being 5th in targets not 2nd in targets?
 

Shakir had 38 targets only over those 10 games, that projects to just 65 targets on 17 games.  You know any “top 2” WR is gonna get more than just 65 targets in a season.

2023 Kincaid was 2nd in targets with 91.  In 2022 it was Gabe Davis with 93.  That’s an average here of 92 targets.  If you use that as your target base for a “top 2” weapon,  his stats last year project to 1,250 yards.
 

Gabe Davis, as WR2, finished 3rd on the team in targets in 2023 with 81 targets.  Even if you project his stats at just 81 targets as the third option it would still be 1,100 yards last year.  
 

 

 

Edited July 14 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Not that simple......let alone "easy".

 

He's basically been a WR3 all of his NFL career........including his previous "career" season in Carolina.    

 

Now he's probably WR1 going into the season and getting matched up against the best CB's in the league instead of nickel and dime backs.

 

HUGE upgrade in competition for him.   

How is Samuel “probably WR1 going into the season” when Keon is WR1 and Kincaid is the preseason favorite to lead the team in targets after finishing 2nd in targets last year?  You also still have Shakir who is the only WR with any real experience with Allen.

 

 

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

How is Samuel “probably WR1 going into the season” when Keon is WR1 and Kincaid is the preseason favorite to lead the team in targets after finishing 2nd in targets last year?  You also still have Shakir who is the only WR with any real experience with Allen.

 

 

Because if you had said Shakir is going to do better he would have then said Shakir is probably going to be #1.  Or MVS.  Or whomever.  Anything to be negative.  Just ignore him.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is not a fair comparison or projection though. Shakir was 5th in targets last year, how are you going to project his yards out over 17 games and then compare that to “top 2” WR expected production when that is based on being 5th in targets not 2nd in targets?
 

Shakir had 38 targets only over those 10 games, that projects to just 65 targets on 17 games.  You know any “top 2” WR is gonna get more than just 65 targets in a season.

2023 Kincaid was 2nd in targets with 91.  In 2022 it was Gabe Davis with 93.  That’s an average here of 92 targets.  If you use that as your target base for a “top 2” weapon,  his stats last year project to 1,250 yards.
 

Gabe Davis, as WR2, finished 3rd on the team in targets in 2023 with 81 targets.  Even if you project his stats at just 81 targets as the third option it would still be 1,100 yards last year.  
 

 

 

 

 

Yes to the highlighted....... the point is that Diggs' and Shakir's roles were so different that it's hard to draw the apples-to-apples comparison you we're making.

 

Everything from target share to playing very different positions and the priority that defense's placed on defending them.

 

I'm more optimistic about Shakir than anyone else in their WR corps.   If I HAD to bet he would get 90+ targets and would lead the team in receiving yardage.  

 

But because of the lack of a player on the perimeter who can force defense's to give them extra attention,  that could lead to the inside guys like Shakir and Kincaid having their territory compressed by squatting defense's.    

 

I could see a lot more contested catches and a huge yards per catch drop-off for Shakir.  

 

I mean, why are teams going to give Shakir room to create YAC opportunities if they can cover Coleman or MVS with one eye in the backfield?

 

It was critical for them to significantly improve their boundary WR options.   And "on paper" they did not.   So we are talking likelihoods here. 

[Doc]

As I said before, there won't be a true #1 WR this year.  The philosophy will be "get open, catch ball." 

[YattaOkasan]

52 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes to the highlighted....... the point is that Diggs' and Shakir's roles were so different that it's hard to draw the apples-to-apples comparison you we're making.

 

Everything from target share to playing very different positions and the priority that defense's placed on defending them.

 

I'm more optimistic about Shakir than anyone else in their WR corps.   If I HAD to bet he would get 90+ targets and would lead the team in receiving yardage.  

 

But because of the lack of a player on the perimeter who can force defense's to give them extra attention,  that could lead to the inside guys like Shakir and Kincaid having their territory compressed by squatting defense's.    

 

I could see a lot more contested catches and a huge yards per catch drop-off for Shakir.  

 

I mean, why are teams going to give Shakir room to create YAC opportunities if they can cover Coleman or MVS with one eye in the backfield?

 

It was critical for them to significantly improve their boundary WR options.   And "on paper" they did not.   So we are talking likelihoods here. 

It’s all an interesting discussion. On the topic of defenders squatting in the middle. I think it should be a concern. But also think we do have enough juice on the outside particularly with Allen’s arm to counter that. Shakir isn’t great on the outside but with Allen’s arm they got Sneeds first (only?) TD allowed of the season. The fun of this season is we haven’t really seen them in the past do the things they must to be successful this year. Part of that is personnel and scheme but it should def still raise concern. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes to the highlighted....... the point is that Diggs' and Shakir's roles were so different that it's hard to draw the apples-to-apples comparison you we're making.

 

Everything from target share to playing very different positions and the priority that defense's placed on defending them.

 

I'm more optimistic about Shakir than anyone else in their WR corps.   If I HAD to bet he would get 90+ targets and would lead the team in receiving yardage.  

 

But because of the lack of a player on the perimeter who can force defense's to give them extra attention,  that could lead to the inside guys like Shakir and Kincaid having their territory compressed by squatting defense's.    

 

I could see a lot more contested catches and a huge yards per catch drop-off for Shakir.  

 

I mean, why are teams going to give Shakir room to create YAC opportunities if they can cover Coleman or MVS with one eye in the backfield?

 

It was critical for them to significantly improve their boundary WR options.   And "on paper" they did not.   So we are talking likelihoods here. 

They are going to move Shakir around and still have Kincaid to contend with and Allen’s threat as a runner.  More importantly, while we may not have a Diggs who would frequently draw extra attention, we are much deeper than in previous seasons.  It’s going to be difficult for them to squat on the middle because even out of the slot, Shakir, Kincaid, and Samuel can attack all 3 levels of the defense and the boundaries too.
 

And while you don’t seem to give much thought to Coleman, he will be a difficult cover one on one because of his size regardless of his production.  Teams are going to have to cheat some help towards him or he will abuse defenders with his size and body control from his basketball background as well if him and Allen show even some chemistry.   

So for me, I don’t have a lot of concern about Shakir and Kincaid getting their territories compressed because Allen will make them pay elsewhere if they do. 
 

I mean, this is all just opinions all around at this stage because so much of this offense is new and we have not seen them as a group, let alone Brady’s true offensive game plan.  But just illustrating why I am less concerned about them having the middle compressed and forced into contested catches.  

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

As I said before, there won't be a true #1 WR this year.  The philosophy will be "get open, catch ball." 

 

I agree on this season. Depending on how this year goes, the WR position may still be a high priority again next offseason. If someone doesn’t emerge to get the attention of the defense, we need to keep looking. We will probably need a top threat to open things up more for the “other guys”, I think. 

 

Time will tell.