I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Beck Water]

47 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Just stop it.  Obviously one play does not tell the story.  But it does serve to rebut statements such as that the Bills do not have any receivers that can beat a top tier QBCB.  

 

I've been trying to stay out of this, but this deserves mention

 

27 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

When someone got shadowed it was him. He regularly saw the #1 CB. He often saw a S over the top as well. He was the main focus of defenses n the passing game (for 4 years). My point was that, now, someone else will see that #1 CB. If they don’t have a S helping, that’s another defender to “roam.” The windows will in turn be tighter. There will be less space for the pass catchers to operate. I’m not sure that is up for debate? Sauce/Ramsey/Gonzalez would have spent their time on Diggs. Now, it will be spent on Samuel/Coleman/Shakir. 

What facts are you disputing? Are you disputing that Diggs saw opposing team’s best CB? Are you disputing that they often had S help vs. Diggs? Please elaborate…

 

1) for those who don't follow jersey numbers, in the film clip above, that was Sauce Gardner covering Shakir.  Not sure who was covering Diggs, believe a LB

2) I don't have data on how often receivers were double covered and whether it was the #1 or #2 CB covering them last season - do you?  I would love to see those data if so

3) no doubt at all that Diggs drew the #1 CB who often had help for much of his 4 years in B'lo.  The point of contention is: was that true at the end of the 2022 season, and even more so was it true specifically at the end of 2023?  Say, week 

 -see point 1 above, this was Nov 19 Jets game, Sauce was on Shakir

 -in the KC game Dec 10, Sneed commented in a response to Diggs interview saying he didn't contribute because he was being doubled, by saying "funny thing is we didn't double him".  Sneed was def. covering Diggs part of the time, not sure he was shadowing him, seems like he was covering other receivers at times.  Diggs was 4 of 11 in that game.

4) NFL flims senior producer Greg Cosell, who has forgotten more about football than almost everyone here knows, made the comment that Diggs wasn't the Bills #1 at the end of last season and broke down a film clip where he referred to Khalil Shakir as "the new #1"

 

TL;DR I'm not sure it's true that Diggs was shadowed, drew the #1 CB, or was doubled with a safety over the top all that much by the end of last season.  These ought to be verifiable facts, but I don't have a source for these data - do you?
 

Caveat: the point could be made that we didn't have a lot of passing game by the end of last season, either.

Edited July 1 by Beck Water

[Kirby Jackson]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I've been trying to stay out of this, but this deserves mention

 

 

1) for those who don't follow jersey numbers, in the film clip above, that was Sauce Gardner covering Shakir.  Not sure who was covering Diggs, believe a LB

2) I don't have data on how often receivers were double covered and whether it was the #1 or #2 CB covering them last season - do you?  I would love to see those data if so

3) no doubt at all that Diggs drew the #1 CB who often had help for much of his 4 years in B'lo.  The point of contention is: was that true at the end of the 2022 season, and even more so was it true in 2023?  

 -see point 1 above, this was Nov 19 Jets game, Sauce was on Shakir

 -in the KC game Dec 10, Sneed commented in a response to Diggs interview saying he didn't contribute because he was being doubled, by saying "funny thing is we didn't double him".  Sneed was def. covering Diggs part of the time, not sure he was shadowing him, seems like he was covering other receivers at times.  Diggs was 4 of 11 in that game.

4) NFL flims senior producer Greg Cosell, who has forgotten more about football than almost everyone here knows, made the comment that Diggs wasn't the Bills #1 at the end of last season and broke down a film clip where he referred to Khalil Shakir as "the new #1"

 

TL;DR I'm not sure it's true that Diggs was shadowed, drew the #1 CB, or was doubled with a safety over the top by the end of last season

These ought to be verifiable facts, but I don't have a source for these data - do you?

The data exists out there. I don’t have the time (or will) to dig it up. I’m confident in saying that “more often than not, in man, Diggs saw the team’s top CB.” I’m also confident in saying, “often he had attention from a S as well.” If you need the actual numbers to support it, feel free to dig them up. I didn’t think that would be a controversial  claim. 

Edited July 1 by Kirby Jackson

[Don Otreply]

35 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

When someone got shadowed it was him. He regularly saw the #1 CB. He often saw a S over the top as well. He was the main focus of defenses n the passing game (for 4 years). My point was that, now, someone else will see that #1 CB. If they don’t have a S helping, that’s another defender to “roam.” The windows will in turn be tighter. There will be less space for the pass catchers to operate. I’m not sure that is up for debate? Sauce/Ramsey/Gonzalez would have spent their time on Diggs. Now, it will be spent on Samuel/Coleman/Shakir. 

What facts are you disputing? Are you disputing that Diggs saw opposing team’s best CB? Are you disputing that they often had S help vs. Diggs? Please elaborate…

Be that as it may, he didn’t get separation as frequently as a #1 is expected to, Diggs didn’t walk the walk as well as he talked the talk , his career postseason numbers are not good, 

[BigDingus]

I think this is just your annual off-season hype cycle, slowly convincing yourself of your improvements & SB chances. 

 

We all do this every year, myself included. Every year of the drought I convinced myself THIS was the time we'd finally break through. 

 

The further you get from the last season & the less you watch other teams in actual games, the easier it is to hyper fixate on your own team's moves. Every little OTA highlight, every speculative article, every positive sound bite, every optimistic thread, etc. all slowly convinces you that you're actually better than ever.

 

But when up step outside of your echo chamber, nobody else is as high on your team as you are. We like to think we know more since we follow the team religiously, but losing talent like Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Jordan Poyer, Mitch Morse, Micah Hyde, etc. will certainly be hard to replace.

 

If anything, the loss of leadership & locker room voices will be felt. And though this team will be in a better position in the long run, I'm not so sure we're better NOW. Even Beane admits we're taking a step back short term.

 

I'd love for us to somehow be even better despite all the veterans we lost, but I'll be OK if we're not for this year. 

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

When someone got shadowed it was him. He regularly saw the #1 CB. He often saw a S over the top as well. He was the main focus of defenses n the passing game (for 4 years). My point was that, now, someone else will see that #1 CB. If they don’t have a S helping, that’s another defender to “roam.” The windows will in turn be tighter. There will be less space for the pass catchers to operate. I’m not sure that is up for debate? Sauce/Ramsey/Gonzalez would have spent their time on Diggs. Now, it will be spent on Samuel/Coleman/Shakir. 

What facts are you disputing? Are you disputing that Diggs saw opposing team’s best CB? Are you disputing that they often had S help vs. Diggs? Please elaborate…

If you watch towards the end of the season Diggs wasn’t drawing as many doubles.  That is my impression.  I could of course be mistaken.

[Beck Water]

41 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The data exists out there. I’m don’t have the time (or will) to dig it up. I’m confident in saying that “more often than not, in man, Diggs saw the team’s top CB.” I’m also confident in saying, “often he had attention from a S as well.” If you need the actual numbers to support it, feel free to dig them up. I didn’t think that would be a controversial  claim. 

 

In general for Diggs 4 years here, no, it's not a controversial claim.  I think it might be a controversial claim for the second half of last season.

 

And I asked if you had them, because you seem so very confident in your statements in the face of observations like Sneed;s [EDIT: this was actually Justin Reid's comment] "we didn't double him"; Sauce on Shakir in the clip linked above; Cosell's comments. 

 

If I could readily find them myself, I woudn't ask.

I daresay some here will "shoot the messenger" but while he didn't provide stats on who was covering him and how, the somewhat controversial Tim Graham delved into a bunch of stuff about depth of target etc here
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5174435/2024/01/03/stefon-diggs-buffalo-bills-snap-counts-targets-analysis/

 

Sal Maiorana pointed out Diggs catch rates against top corners were abysmal at the end of the season

Quote

 another factor is that Diggs had a tougher time winning routes, especially when he was going against top-tier cornerbacks.

For a sampling, with the caveat that he didn’t face these players on every route but saw them quite a bit: He had just three catches for 34 yards against the Broncos and Patrick Surtain II; 7-45 combined in two games against the Chiefs and L’Jarius Sneed; 4-27 against Sauce Gardner and the Jets; 5-29 against Asante Samuel Jr. and the Chargers; and 4-26 against Jonathan Jones of the Patriots.

 

Edited July 1 by Beck Water

[Billl]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I guess Shakir fits the bill then

Shakir was absolutely blanketed, and the ball went right through Sauce’s hands.  Credit to Shakir for catching and housing it, but that’s a pick more often than a completion.  

[LeGOATski]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

Shakir was absolutely blanketed, and the ball went right through Sauce’s hands.  Credit to Shakir for catching and housing it, but that’s a pick more often than a completion.  

Not for Allen. His arm strength makes him the only QB in the NFL who can make that throw.

 

And Shakir isn't "blanketed", Jersey is playing zone. Sauce does well to recognize it, but still can't get there in time.

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, Billl said:

Shakir was absolutely blanketed, and the ball went right through Sauce’s hands.  Credit to Shakir for catching and housing it, but that’s a pick more often than a completion.  

So now only certain catches count?  Come on now.

 

My view is Shakir and/or Samuel will show improvement this year and that Diggs performance will decline.  We‘ll see.

Edited July 1 by oldmanfan

[Augie]

16 minutes ago, Billl said:

Shakir was absolutely blanketed, and the ball went right through Sauce’s hands.  Credit to Shakir for catching and housing it, but that’s a pick more often than a completion.  

 

Some people would call that a great throw, a great catch, and a fantastic RAC!  But feel free to be you. Sauce didn’t make the play here, so it is what it is. We lose by inches at times too. That’s how it works. 

 

 

.

Edited July 1 by Augie

[Billl]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

So now only certain catches count?  Come on now.

It absolutely counts.  I credited him for the catch and the RAC.  My point is that’s not an example of a WR beating a #1 CB.  It was an example of Josh throwing an absolute laser through a keyhole.  The same thing happened multiple times in the divisional game.  They’re great plays when you only see your team’s highlights.  The problem is all the times they wind up on the other team’s highlight reels.  

 

Josh is one of a very small number of QBs with the talent to jam that ball in there, but even then it’s a low percentage play.  A #1 WR’s job is to make the QB’s life easier by getting open and giving him a reasonable window so that he doesn’t have to make a HOF level throw.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Billl said:

It absolutely counts.  I credited him for the catch and the RAC.  My point is that’s not an example of a WR beating a #1 CB.  It was an example of Josh throwing an absolute laser through a keyhole.  The same thing happened multiple times in the divisional game.  They’re great plays when you only see your team’s highlights.  The problem is all the times they wind up on the other team’s highlight reels.  

 

Josh is one of a very small number of QBs with the talent to jam that ball in there, but even then it’s a low percentage play.  A #1 WR’s job is to make the QB’s life easier by getting open and giving him a reasonable window so that he doesn’t have to make a HOF level throw.

 

He also was NOT Sauce's guy on that play. Sauce was trying to rescue someone else's screw up.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Eastport bills said:

We already know the Fla State offense was run heavy so 50 receptions on an undefeated team is impressive.

 

 

Why would we know this?

 

Florida State was 11th of 14 teams in the ACC in rushing yards per game.

 

They were 3rd in passing yardage in the ACC.

 

You are literally just making sh!t up out of thin air.

[Billl]

35 minutes ago, Billl said:

Shakir was absolutely blanketed, and the ball went right through Sauce’s hands.  Credit to Shakir for catching and housing it, but that’s a pick more often than a completion.  

I just watched a different angle of that play, and it didn’t actually go through Sauce’s hands.  It was just out of his reach, just an absolute piss rod of a throw.  There’s no more than a handful of QBs in the league who can make that throw at all and zero who can make it often enough for it to be considered a route won by the WR.  Shakir gets credit for the run afterwards, but he gets about 1% of the credit for the completion.  The rest goes to Josh for hitting a throw with a ridiculously high degree of difficulty.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Be that as it may, he didn’t get separation as frequently as a #1 is expected to, Diggs didn’t walk the walk as well as he talked the talk , his career postseason numbers are not good, 

I agree. That’s a different point though. For all of those people “really starting to love the WR room” it’s important to realize that these guys will face scheme and talent that they hadn’t prior. Diggs accounted for A LOT of that. The space will get smaller and the windows tighter. There is not a guy on this team that has Diggs’ talent or separation ability. This room got different. A reasonable argument can’t be made (at this point) that they got better.

[Eastport bills]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Why would we know this?

 

Florida State was 11th of 14 teams in the ACC in rushing yards per game.

 

They were 3rd in passing yardage in the ACC.

 

You are literally just making sh!t up out of thin air.

What’s the point of continuing with this. You’re convinced the Bills can’t win with these receivers. Who cares about Fla State run statistics? You’re grasping at straws with cherry-picked stats to what end?You have an opinion and you want people to accept it. Negativity is your starting point. You don’t acknowledge anything positive and you can’t accept the benefit a QB like #17 has on a young player. I can’t engage in this anymore. Thanks.

[Don Otreply]

22 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I agree. That’s a different point though. For all of those people “really starting to love the WR room” it’s important to realize that these guys will face scheme and talent that they hadn’t prior. Diggs accounted for A LOT of that. The space will get smaller and the windows tighter. There is not a guy on this team that has Diggs’ talent or separation ability. This room got different. A reasonable argument can’t be made (at this point) that they got better.

I can except your thought process, I think though that that any defense will only double the guy on a passing play that they believe is the biggest threat, that will alleviate some of the coverage issues for the other receivers, just a thought…, 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I think there’s a real chance Cee Dee Lamb and Dallas don’t get a contract done. Something to watch. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think there’s a real chance Cee Dee Lamb and Dallas don’t get a contract done. Something to watch. 

As I keep saying if Beane wants to bring another guy in great.  But you put say Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, Coleman and MVS/Cook out on the field, with one of the best QBs  in the league throwing, I think our offense will be fine.  We’ll know soon enough and all the naysaying or positive gushing over things won’t change that.

 

No offense led by Allen will be bad. 

[Logic]

To me, it's not a question of "can Josh Allen make chicken salad out of chicken *****" with an average to subpar receiving group?". He can, and has.

To me, the pertinent question is "have the Bills put Josh Allen in the best possible position to succeed to the best of his capabilities?", and to me, the answer appears to be a no.

Now...it's completely valid to say that Stefon Diggs was likely in the Bills' plans for this coming season, that his departure was somewhat unexpected to them, and that given the cap situation, their hands were a bit tied as to how much they could really do to respond. I don't think that's ENTIRELY valid, because I would counter that they could've drafted more than one receiver in a loaded WR draft, could've traded a pick for another team's receiver and given that player an extension, etc.

In any case, if the statement is "our offense will be just fine regardless of our WR corps because Josh Allen is our QB", then I agree. If the statement is "the Bills have put Allen in an optimal situation to maximize his production and be the best player he can be", I disagree. And that's what keeps on seeming to happen, in my opinion: the Bills keep turning to Josh Allen and saying "hey buddy, we're gonna need you to put on the cape most weeks in order for our team to win", and I don't think that's a desirable, sustainable, or particularly fair or wise strategy.

Edited July 2 by Logic