I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[SoCal Deek]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I wouldn’t say they are a dime a dozen- rather just not necessary to win a SB

How bout a dime for ten? 😉

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Generalizing about what a team needs at WR to be championship caliber from that is just wishful thinking by Bills fans. And that’s only because of where we are at WR. So now winning with a pedestrian WR corps has become a popular narrative among many Bills fans, but I heard exactly none of them saying anything of the sort before things went sour with Diggs.

 

This. When we traded for Diggs and then extended him I don't remember a single Bills fan saying the Bills were stupidly investing in an unnecessary position.

 

The Chiefs have become the rallying cry for our poor WR room. But we aren't the Chiefs. No one is.

[NewEra]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Is it possible for a WR to break out in his 8th or 9th season in the NFL?  

 

I guess?  It's probably happened.

 

Quinn Early did it in his NFL year 7 back in 1994 when he put up the first of four 800-1,000 yard seasons.

 

But it's very rare to break out that late.

 

 

Good point-  but do we need him to “break out”?  I’m thinking all we need is 700-850 out of him.  I expect his best season- but I don’t expect him to be a breakout star.  
 

The best example of breaking out late would be Brandon Lloyd (29) who led the nfl in yards with Kyle Orton throwing him the ball.  Joe Horn entered the league at 24 but didn’t break out until year 5, age 28.  To a lesser extent Welker was 26- Bob woods 26.

 

samuel also had some of the worst QBs in the nfl throwing him the ball his entire career.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

The argument about not having Diggs anymore as a #1 WR, that we don't have anyone to replace him, ad nauseum ignores one basic thing:  the situation for any given player or team is not static.  Take for example the idea that Samuel (or Shakir, or Coleman, or whomever) might be as good as Diggs or might not, as debated above.  The entire argument by those saying Samuel can't be a replacement assumes a static situation where Samuel can never improve or that Diggs will be the Diggs he was for the majority of his career with the Bills.

 

 

To be clear I don't think anyone is making the bolded assumption. This assumption isn't about whether the Bills would be better with Diggs or Samuel in 2024. That is pretty besides the point now, Diggs is not here. It is about whether going into the this season the Bills are better or worse than they have been going into the last two seasons at receiver. 

 

To me they are definitely better in the slot, with Shakir's development and Samuel's ability to play there as required too. But there are weaker outside. Even if Samuel has a career year, expecting him to be Stefon Diggs level of his first 3 and a half years with the Bills - a top 5 receiver in football - is totally unrealistic. 

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

It's a step down, but the weakest WR group "on paper" in the last 40 years?

 

Nah

 

Not even close.

 

Time for people to remind themselves of the offense Brandon Beane believed was NFL calibre in 2018. 

10 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

I said, and I quote “give me one reason Curtis Samuel can’t be Stef Diggs in this offense”

 

Instead of reasons, I got jokes, baseless opinions and all kinds of other garbage. No real discussion. But of course, what did I expect…if you all are honest with yourselves you don’t know anything about Curtis Samuel beyond his stats and what you read or saw in highlights.

 

I am honest with myself. And that is simply not true for me. 

[Kirby Jackson]

22 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

And yet, every time 2023 KC receivers are brought up, you get some combination of "but Mahomes/Kelce/Reid"

Yep, again, different topic. When we discuss the “Kansas City Wide Receivers” we should discuss the “Kansas City Wide Receivers.” If we want to discuss the passing game, we can talk Mahomes/Kelce/Reid. This thread was about the Bills wrs. Some turned it into a conversation about the passing game. Those things are different. 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Yep, again, different topic. When we discuss the “Kansas City Wide Receivers” we should discuss the “Kansas City Wide Receivers.” If we want to discuss the passing game, we can talk Mahomes/Kelce/Reid. This thread was about the Bills wrs. Some turned it into a conversation about the passing game. Those things are different. 

It should also be noted that the Chiefs WR’s were horrific last year and Mahomes had one of his worst seasons of his career. Just because they won the Super Bowl doesn’t mean it was a good plan.

[Kirby Jackson]

11 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

... if you don't disagree, you understand that "The Bills TE" is one of "The Bills WRs".

 

It's a real weak argument to understand that and go "even though he plays WR, his official listing on the roster page is a TE, so he doesn't count and I'm only going to judge the room based on who's *officially* listed as a WR".

 

"The Bills TE" is Dawson Knox. Dalton Kincaid is a Big Slot WR and should be thought of as part of the WR core, regardless of what his official designation on the Roster sheet says. Like I said, it also says Von Miller is a Linebacker and will all know he's a Defensive End.

No, he is not. He is a TE. When he gets franchise tagged it will be as a TE. It’s the Jimmy Graham argument. Kincaid is the most prominent pass catcher on the roster. He is a TE. He will play some from the slot. He’s an important part of the passing game. He is not a WR. 
 

The Bills pass catchers and the Bills WRs are not the same thing. We continue to insert Kincaid, Cook, and to a lesser degree, Knox into the conversation to prop up our poor WR room. We have a good TE group, an average RB group, and a bottom 3 WR room. Our pass catchers are definitely bottom 10 and very likely bottom 5. Our QB is top 2. 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, NewEra said:

We don’t even have to go back past 2018 to be worse.  2017 maybe even worse than that.

 

 

 

 

It will be the first time they haven't taken a WR into the season who had put up at least a single 900 yard receiving season in their career since the period in the 1980's right after the 2-14 teams.

 

They've almost always had someone whose been a 1,000 yard receiver in their career and 800's is pretty far from that.

 

Including 2017.   Jordan Matthews had recently been a 1,000 yard receiver.  Then they picked up Benjamin and had 2 recent 1,000 yard receivers on the team.

[BillsVet]

11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

But the so-called elite #1 outside WR is not commonly found on SB winners in recent history. You're absolutely right that teams who win the big game have talented receiving options, but the obsession with this narrow definition of a certain type of alpha WR with length and deep speed isn't actually supported by the results. 

 

You're arguing against having one because Buffalo doesn't anymore.  It's a bunch of WR3-WR5 and an overpaid TE along with a 2nd year guy who averaged 9 ypr.   

 

Going back the last 5 seasons, the 10 SB participants had at least a top-end WR1 or elite flex TE.    

 

Anyone can quibble over what that looks like, but KC, SF, TB, CIN, LAR, PHI all featured someone who demonstrated consistent production which to me is 900+ yards over a season.  

 

Buffalo, to @BADOLBILZ's point has zero players on the roster who've done that in their careers.  People can get down on their knees and pronounce any of Shakir, Samuel, or Kincaid primed to do that in this offense, but it's a hope and dream at this point crafted out of wild guesstimates. 

 

Teams with elite offenses have elite pass-catchers.  And elite offenses are practically a requirement to advance in the post-season. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Good point-  but do we need him to “break out”?  I’m thinking all we need is 700-850 out of him.  I expect his best season- but I don’t expect him to be a breakout star.  
 

The best example of breaking out late would be Brandon Lloyd (29) who led the nfl in yards with Kyle Orton throwing him the ball.  Joe Horn entered the league at 24 but didn’t break out until year 5, age 28.  To a lesser extent Welker was 26- Bob woods 26.

 

samuel also had some of the worst QBs in the nfl throwing him the ball his entire career.  

 

 

Brandon Lloyd is the IDEAL example.  Good call on that one.   Dude went All Pro level for his 8th year.  

 

So yeah,  like I said,  it can happen.  I do think we need more than 700-850 from WR1 though.   I don't buy the "in aggregate" nonsense.   

 

But we are talking about likelihoods.    It's just unlikely that Samuel is going to break out going up against the Sauce Gardners of the league for the first time.    He put up his best season as the clear-cut WR3 in Carolina.   

 

I do think we need more than 700-850 from WR1 though.   I don't buy the "in aggregate" stuff........as I've said......"stopping the run with numbers" was nonsense and so is replacing the quality with quantity at WR.

 

 I think we should expect an offense that is trying to shorten games and running a lot of 12 personnel.    The 2 WR on the field are going to have to produce to keep defense's from squatting on that sh!t.   And a guy like Samuel needs more snaps/routes to put up 1,000 yards than Diggs did.   So the numbers don't align.

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

The only supporting results are from two teams which had either Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes at QB. (And not even when Brady was in TB.) Generalizing about what a team needs at WR to be championship caliber from that is just wishful thinking by Bills fans. And that’s only because of where we are at WR. So now winning with a pedestrian WR corps has become a popular narrative among many Bills fans, but I heard exactly none of them saying anything of the sort before things went sour with Diggs. Here’s hoping it works out with an ascension from Kincaid and others, but don’t tell me that the Bills wouldn’t be a better team with an elite WR. 

Also for the quote "the so-called elite #1 outside WR is not commonly found in Superbowl winners in recent history", what about Cooper Kupp or if he doesn't qualify OBJ, then there is Mike Evans, and a little before that Tyreek Hill.  It's certainly not like having a good outside WR is going to hinder you in winning the SB.

 

As to the bold above, my fear with hoping it works out is it might become a deliberate strategy going forward - like cheap investments in RBs, this could be a trial run by the FO on a "dime a dozen" WR theory.  It's frightening to think about.

[SoCal Deek]

Not sure why this so complicated. Once you have a highly paid franchise quarterback you have to invest your limited resources elsewhere on your roster and expect that the QB will lift up the WR group. The shame is NOT that they had to assemble and entirely new group for 2024. The shame is that Diggs became a nuisance with his attitude! I’m sure the Bills would’ve loved to squeeze another season out of him while the rookie develops. 

[HappyDays]

22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It should also be noted that the Chiefs WR’s were horrific last year and Mahomes had one of his worst seasons of his career. Just because they won the Super Bowl doesn’t mean it was a good plan.

 

Yes there is a lot of revisionist history with the Chiefs. WR was a much publicized and talked about issue with them and most people expected it to be the reason they didn't win a Super Bowl. A lot of Bills fans are intentionally pretending that that wasn't a thing. The Chiefs overcoming that is no more proof of concept than Nick Foles winning a Super Bowl is proof that high end QBs don't matter.

 

In any case, if I've said it once I'll say it 100 times - our goal can't be to try and emulate the Chiefs. Nobody should be trying to emulate them. We need to follow the standard formula of winning a Super Bowl and that formula includes multiple high end pass catchers.

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes there is a lot of revisionist history with the Chiefs. WR was a much publicized and talked about issue with them and most people expected it to be the reason they didn't win a Super Bowl. A lot of Bills fans are intentionally pretending that that wasn't a thing. The Chiefs overcoming that is no more proof of concept than Nick Foles winning a Super Bowl is proof that high end QBs don't matter.

 

In any case, if I've said it once I'll say it 100 times - our goal can't be to try and emulate the Chiefs. Nobody should be trying to emulate them. We need to follow the standard formula of winning a Super Bowl and that formula includes multiple high end pass catchers.

Multiple high end pass catchers does not work when you have a star QB and the salary cap.

Edited June 27 by oldmanfan

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Yes there is a lot of revisionist history with the Chiefs. WR was a much publicized and talked about issue with them and most people expected it to be the reason they didn't win a Super Bowl. A lot of Bills fans are intentionally pretending that that wasn't a thing. The Chiefs overcoming that is no more proof of concept than Nick Foles winning a Super Bowl is proof that high end QBs don't matter.

 

In any case, if I've said it once I'll say it 100 times - our goal can't be to try and emulate the Chiefs. Nobody should be trying to emulate them. We need to follow the standard formula of winning a Super Bowl and that formula includes multiple high end pass catchers.

 

 

And as it turned out.........the Chiefs still ended up with 2 receiving targets that finished in the top 32 in receiving yards in each of the last 2 years.

 

Which has continued the narrative by Matt Harmon of receptionperception.com that the quality of WR2 is as important, if not more important, than the quality of WR1 in reaching a SB.

 

The Bills had that once under Josh Allen.   In 2020 when they had a top 3 WR corps in the NFL.   The furthest they've gotten in the playoffs etc..

 

[SoCal Deek]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Multiple high end pass catchers does not work when you have a star QB and the salary cap.

Yep.....see my post above. 

[BillsVet]

 

13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Multiple high end pass catchers does not work when you have a star QB and the salary cap.

 

It does when you draft them before it becomes necessary to replace a guy lost in UFA or needs to be traded.  Prevents having to trade for/sign them in UFA because you refuse to draft and therefore don't develop them.  The Bills used UFA or traded for several offensive players and therefore paid a premium.  

 

They didn't do so well developing guys on their first contract, particularly at WR.  

 

Buffalo used 2 2nd round picks and traded a first over an 8 year span on WR's.  That don't cut it in the modern NFL.    

Edited June 27 by BillsVet

[Lost]

34 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Multiple high end pass catchers does not work when you have a star QB and the salary cap.

 

1 proven elite pass catcher and another top tier prospect on a rookie contract is the recipe. 

 

edit:  and not overpaying for JAGs

Edited June 27 by Lost

[Mikey152]

This thread is depressing. 
 

it reminds me a lot of the linebacker threads from last season. 
 

I realize they are heading into this season without a lot of production at WR. If that is what you are using to measure how good their WR core is, I guess I get why you are down on them.

 

But the amount of potential they have at wideout this season is WAY higher than any recent season, and for significantly less money. Shakir and Samuel have elite advanced analytics, but are low on production due to targets so their numbers aren’t good. MVS and Claypool are probably the best HWS guys the Bills have had since TO was here. Coleman was a top recruit in two sports…I think his athleticism and potential should be obvious.

 

some of you are too focused on production. You are equating that to talent. But production is a trailing indicator, not a leading one. 
 

forget the numbers for a second and go watch some of these guys play. They ARE talented…probably more talented than any WR group we have had in recent memory.

Edited June 27 by Mikey152

[PBF81]

On 6/25/2024 at 11:39 AM, oldmanfan said:

So you say it never happened, not once.

 

But it did.

 

So you’re wrong.

 

Well, OK, so for you it's all about who's wrong and who's right.   Noted.  

 

I look for people that have some depth to their statements and what they post here.  

 

But you define one of the major issues in social media.  So that's a good perspective I suppose.