I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Coach Tuesday]

The market has already decided the great Samuel v. Diggs debate.  32 NFL GMs vs. something calling itself “Mikey152.”  🤔 

[Mikey152]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

His separation rates have consistently been top 6 year on year. It dropped last year but even then only very marginally. 

 

So no, it is not completely subjective. It is backed by the numbers. 

 

The difference between Samuel and Diggs is talent. Samuel is a good NFL receiver. Prime Stefon Diggs was elite.

 

Just to be clear, Samuel has posted elite separation numbers the last 4 seasons...Like, as good or better than Stef.

 

So is it that Samuel isn't as good, or that Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater and the garbage in Washington aren't as good as Cousins and JA (the only QBs diggs ever had 100 yards with...he never had 1k in three seasons with Sam Bradford or Keenum as his QB...)

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

Just to be clear, Samuel has posted elite separation numbers the last 4 seasons...Like, as good or better than Stef.

 

So is it that Samuel isn't as good, or that Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater and the garbage in Washington aren't as good as Cousins and JA (the only QBs diggs ever had 100 yards with...he never had 1k in three seasons with Sam Bradford or Keenum as his QB...)

 

It's both. Do I think Samuel is capable of having a career year? Yes. Do I think he is going to be a game breaking outside receiver in the way Stef Diggs was for 3 and a half years here? No.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:

In his one season with Joe Brady, Samuel averaged 8.8 ypt. at 160 targets, that's 1400 yards.

 

That isn't how statistics work.

[Mikey152]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That isn't how statistics work.

Sure it is...it is called extrapolation.

 

Sure, there could be some regression if his target share increased, but I don't think projecting 8 ypt is wild. At 160 targets, he would put up 1300 yards.

 

Here's what I know...your opinion is based on A) never really watching him play and B) historical stats with no context.

 

I am trying to project who he could be on the Bills, not who he was. You have presented no evidence to dispute my claim aside from "talent" and you didn't even quantify it.

 

Do you not see how "Diggs is more talented because of his numbers" and "Diggs has better numbers because he is more talented" is completely circular???

 

 

 

 

Edited June 26 by Mikey152

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Sure, there could be some regression if his target share increased, but I don't think projecting 8 ypt is wild. At 160 targets, he would put up 1300 yards.

 

There's a reason players get a certain number of targets.

[GASabresIUFan]

I honestly don’t care if Samuel or anyone else has a career year this year.  I care that our top 3 WRs, Kincaid and Cook all have solid seasons giving defenses too many dangerous targets to cover.  If Knox, Hollins, Davis and Claypool all play well all the better.  
 

PS - I don’t think MVS is making the team.  Mr Drop-o-matic is just a lesser version of Gabe Davis.  Claypool gives us similar size, better speed, and upside potential.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:

How so?

 

Again, you're making this up based on perception, not reality. Watch the Matt Harmon video.

 

Curtis Samuel wins 75%+ of his snaps against man coverage EVERY season. He is one of the best man coverage separators in the league. You know what made Diggs Diggs prior to his mini-collapse?  He was one of the best man coverage separators in the league.

 

They are literally the same size and have practically the same skill set, only Samuel is even faster and better with the ball in his hands.

 

Just remember this thread after the season.

 

 

there is no universe where curtis samuel and diggs have 'practically the same skill set'

 

it's just a completely illegitimate argument

[Augie]

23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

there is no universe where curtis samuel and diggs have 'practically the same skill set'

 

it's just a completely illegitimate argument

 

For the record, I am about the same height and weight as those guys.  Those are facts. 

 

😋

 

 

.

Edited June 26 by Augie

[Dr. Who]

12 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

For the record, I am about the same height and weight as those guys.  Those are facts. 

 

😋

 

 

.

If you only knew how to extrapolate, you could have been a player.

[Augie]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

If you only knew how to extrapolate, you could have been a player.

 

I need to get back into a good stretching regimen. Hope springs eternal!   😋

 

I’m feeling good about this. I think it’s a better retirement prospect than that of Antonio Brown. My plan has the potential to fail. His plan is designed to fail. Both with equal certainty, I’m afraid. 

[Mikey152]

I'm glad you all have jokes...gonna save this thread for later.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:

Sure it is...it is called extrapolation.

 

Sure, there could be some regression if his target share increased, but I don't think projecting 8 ypt is wild. At 160 targets, he would put up 1300 yards.

 

Here's what I know...your opinion is based on A) never really watching him play and B) historical stats with no context.

 

I am trying to project who he could be on the Bills, not who he was. You have presented no evidence to dispute my claim aside from "talent" and you didn't even quantify it.

 

Do you not see how "Diggs is more talented because of his numbers" and "Diggs has better numbers because he is more talented" is completely circular???

 

 

 

 

 

 

After Gabe Davis 4 TD playoff game did you presume that he would just become a superstar with more targets?

 

That's what @HappyDays is talking about.

 

Giving Gabe more targets lead to diminishing returns in 2022.

 

His catch % dropped,  his passer rating plummeted 20 points and 50% more targets tripled the amount of interceptions thrown his direction.

 

Samuel is a good, journeyman WR.   A really good WR3.   7 years of film and stats to prove what he can and can't do.

 

His best season in the NFL(under Joe Brady) he was WR3 getting WR3 CB matchups.

 

Part of the reason "the extrapolaters" were wrong about Gabe Davis was that his skillset didn't allow him to get open against CB1's and CB2's.   So when he got elevated,  he got worse.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

On 6/23/2024 at 10:18 AM, klos63 said:

If the Dolphins or the Jets had this group of WR, we'd laugh at them. 

 

On the flip side of that coin the chiefs had this level of wr and won the Super Bowl 😂 

 

i feel like Kincaid has to be factored in even if you’re talking about wr specifically and the dolphins/jets don’t have a guy like that 

[Mikey152]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

After Gabe Davis 4 TD playoff game did you presume that he would just become a superstar with more targets?

 

That's what @HappyDays is talking about.

 

Giving Gabe more targets lead to diminishing returns in 2022.

 

His catch % dropped,  his passer rating plummeted 20 points and 50% more targets tripled the amount of interceptions thrown his direction.

 

Samuel is a good, journeyman WR.   A really good WR3.   7 years of film and stats to prove what he can and can't do.

 

His best season in the NFL(under Joe Brady) he was WR3 getting WR3 CB matchups.

 

Part of the reason "the extrapolaters" were wrong about Gabe Davis was that his skillset didn't allow him to get open against CB1's and CB2's.   So when he got elevated,  he got worse.

Gabe Davis and Curtis Samuel are nothing alike. 
 

Gabe Davis was a fourth round pick I had never heard of coming out of college. He had a limited skill set and inconsistent hands.

 

Curtis Samuel was a star in college. He only dropped to the second round because he was a bit of a tweener. He has played with trash QBs, not Josh Allen. He missed a whole season due to injury, and his 2019 was just as good as his 2020, he just had a terrible quarterback who couldnt get him the ball after Cam got hurt.

 

i get it, you all think he is a number three because of stuff like fantasy football, surface stats and the like. Maybe you should go back and watch the commanders vs bills. Watch him beat our corners only to have Howell get sacked over and over or throw picks.

 

its funny, I thought I was on a Bills board, but I guess it’s cooler to be a pessimist around here. Get on the WR suck train or you’re a homer

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

After Gabe Davis 4 TD playoff game did you presume that he would just become a superstar with more targets?

 

That's what @HappyDays is talking about.

 

Giving Gabe more targets lead to diminishing returns in 2022.

 

His catch % dropped,  his passer rating plummeted 20 points and 50% more targets tripled the amount of interceptions thrown his direction.

 

Samuel is a good, journeyman WR.   A really good WR3.   7 years of film and stats to prove what he can and can't do.

 

His best season in the NFL(under Joe Brady) he was WR3 getting WR3 CB matchups.

 

Part of the reason "the extrapolaters" were wrong about Gabe Davis was that his skillset didn't allow him to get open against CB1's and CB2's.   So when he got elevated,  he got worse.

Seemed like he and Josh just didn’t gel either…they were always reading those option routes differently 

[BADOLBILZ]

22 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Gabe Davis and Curtis Samuel are nothing alike. 
 

Gabe Davis was a fourth round pick I had never heard of coming out of college. He had a limited skill set and inconsistent hands.

 

Curtis Samuel was a star in college. He only dropped to the second round because he was a bit of a tweener. He has played with trash QBs, not Josh Allen. He missed a whole season due to injury, and his 2019 was just as good as his 2020, he just had a terrible quarterback who couldnt get him the ball after Cam got hurt.

 

i get it, you all think he is a number three because of stuff like fantasy football, surface stats and the like. Maybe you should go back and watch the commanders vs bills. Watch him beat our corners only to have Howell get sacked over and over or throw picks.

 

its funny, I thought I was on a Bills board, but I guess it’s cooler to be a pessimist around here. Get on the WR suck train or you’re a homer

 

 

 

Like I said,  Curtis Samuel is a good journeyman WR.

 

As you noted,  he has also missed a lot of games injured......27 games.....in his career.

 

That's why Samuel has averaged just 480 yards per season in 7 long years in the NFL.

 

What you perceived that he was 8 years ago in college is a lot less important than what he's done since then.

 

I'm no Gabe Davis fan but Davis has averaged 683 yards per season in HIS career.    

 

So yeah, they haven't been comparable producers and that's why Davis got paid a lot more.

[Mikey152]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Like I said,  Curtis Samuel is a good journeyman WR.

 

As you noted,  he has also missed a lot of games injured......27 games.....in his career.

 

That's why Samuel has averaged just 480 yards per season in 7 long years in the NFL.

 

What you perceived that he was 8 years ago in college is a lot less important than what he's done since then.

 

I'm no Gabe Davis fan but Davis has averaged 683 yards per season in HIS career.    

 

So yeah, they haven't been comparable producers and that's why Davis got paid a lot more.

Journeyman?  He’s 27. He’s pretty much the same age Diggs was when he came to Buffalo.

[JerseyBills]

43 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Gabe Davis and Curtis Samuel are nothing alike. 
 

Gabe Davis was a fourth round pick I had never heard of coming out of college. He had a limited skill set and inconsistent hands.

 

Curtis Samuel was a star in college. He only dropped to the second round because he was a bit of a tweener. He has played with trash QBs, not Josh Allen. He missed a whole season due to injury, and his 2019 was just as good as his 2020, he just had a terrible quarterback who couldnt get him the ball after Cam got hurt.

 

i get it, you all think he is a number three because of stuff like fantasy football, surface stats and the like. Maybe you should go back and watch the commanders vs bills. Watch him beat our corners only to have Howell get sacked over and over or throw picks.

 

its funny, I thought I was on a Bills board, but I guess it’s cooler to be a pessimist around here. Get on the WR suck train or you’re a homer

 

Dude your Samuel posts are awesome and accurate. 

Samuel's potential is sky freaking high, he is a dog , can play any position and I'm just grateful he's a Buffalo Bill , this man is a beast

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Journeyman?  He’s 27. He’s pretty much the same age Diggs was when he came to Buffalo.

 

 

Yeah Samuel is an 8th year journeyman who will be 28 next week.

 

-Diggs was a little over a year younger when he came to Buffalo.

- Diggs only had 5 years of NFL mileage versus 7 for Samuel.

- Diggs had missed a much smaller % of games.

-And the biggest difference.......Diggs averaged an excellent 925 yards per season in his career while Samuel has averaged a pedestrian 480.   

 

Is it possible for a WR to break out in his 8th or 9th season in the NFL?  

 

I guess?  It's probably happened.

 

Quinn Early did it in his NFL year 7 back in 1994 when he put up the first of four 800-1,000 yard seasons.

 

But it's very rare to break out that late.