I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

 

Issue with Brady is that the offense got a lot more pedestrian last season.  It wasn't just that he threw it less than 50% of the time, it's that Josh's yards per attempt went from about 7.2 down to 6.4 from Dorsey to Brady.  People can attribute that to Diggs and Davis not performing, but it's at least as much a result of what they wanted the offense to be and how is was called.  

 

And it's not like the running game got more efficient as a result...yards per attempt went from 4.6 under Dorsey to 4.3 with Brady.  

 

Thing is, I don't believe they see this as an issue, but instead as a solution.  Keep drives going, minimize risk throwing it shorter and running the ball is how they've built the 2024 offense.  Who's dictating that is for another debate, but there's no reason on God's green earth to take Josh and turn him into a game manager while surrounding him with sub-par or so unproven WR/TE talent.  And expecting that more balance will yield better results.   

 

The offense is going to resemble more of what it was in the 2nd half of 2023.  And it will be infuriating. 

 

So you call out the fewer yards per attempt, and fewer yards per carry.  How many more carries did we have than our opponents in that stretch?  How many more  pass attempts?  

 

More plays = more yards.  More yards = more first downs.  More first downs = more Touchdowns.  You also control the game flow considerably better while maintaining time of posession.  

Edited June 25 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[BillsVet]

4 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

So you call out the fewer yards per attempt, and fewer yards per carry.  How many more carries did we have than our opponents in that stretch?  How many more  pass attempts?  

 

More plays = more yards.  More yards = more first downs.  More first downs = more Touchdowns.  You also control the game flow considerably better while maintaining time of posession.  

 

You're on the Bills dormant analytics team, aren't you?

 

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

The offense got worse by becoming slower, less efficient and operated more toward the LOS in the 2nd half of the season.  That will show up this year.      

 

If you can't see how that philosophy which they doubled down on this off-season doesn't present a problem, I'm sorry you can't figure it out.  

 

Besides, assuming what worked just enough last year will work this year is absurd.  Every opponent on the schedule is preparing for them and knows their personnel limitations.  I doubt opposing DC's and HC's are worried about that WR group, which unless you're a blind homer, represents a mediocre group at best. 

And Brady has had an entire off-season to put his playbook in.

[Mikey152]

1 hour ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

So you call out the fewer yards per attempt, and fewer yards per carry.  How many more carries did we have than our opponents in that stretch?  How many more  pass attempts?  

 

More plays = more yards.  More yards = more first downs.  More first downs = more Touchdowns.  You also control the game flow considerably better while maintaining time of posession.  

I think they call that context.

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

So you call out the fewer yards per attempt, and fewer yards per carry.  How many more carries did we have than our opponents in that stretch?  How many more  pass attempts?  

 

More plays = more yards.  More yards = more first downs.  More first downs = more Touchdowns.  You also control the game flow considerably better while maintaining time of posession.  

Exactly 

Look at the KC game, we dominated top - 38 -22 . Had 7 8 more 1st downs, only 10 more yards but Diggs, Sherfield dropped 2 bombs. Bass missed 2 FGs, that was really the difference.  

We should've put up 30+ , SF put up 22, Mia/Bal didn't put up more than 10.. 

 

Brady wants balance and we found it with our run game, which is exactly what KC has done in January to win sbs. 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, JerseyBills said:

Exactly 

Look at the KC game, we dominated top - 38 -22 . Had 7 8 more 1st downs, only 10 more yards but Diggs, Sherfield dropped 2 bombs. Bass missed 2 FGs, that was really the difference.  

We should've put up 30+ , SF put up 22, Mia/Bal didn't put up more than 10.. 

 

Brady wants balance and we found it with our run game, which is exactly what KC has done in January to win sbs. 

 

 

The one that jumped out to me was Miami.  36 runs and 41 pass plays for 77 total plays.  Miami ran 48.  26 1D to 16.  The 3 turnovers in miami territory were the reason it wasn't a blow out.  

 

The thing about dorsey... and daboll before him... they'd abandon the run game when it isn't working.  There isn't an adjustment other than to just let josh do his thing.  No pass to set up run, no counters to opposing tendencies, etc.  We'd just stop doing it.  The team had 10 turnovers in these 4 games (i think 1 was a fumblerooski).  

 

Loss to Cinci - 8 carries by backs.

Loss to Jax - 10 carries by backs.  

Loss to NE - 17 carries by backs.

Loss to NYJ - 16 carries by backs.

[TheWei44]

I've said it before - Part of the important context with Brady/late last season is that our backs were against the wall.  That's when we've always unleashed Josh more as a runner.  So I think that was a big factor in any observed shifts to favoring the run//less passing.  My hunch is that early next season, Josh will run less (but hopefully still be allowed to "be himself", which is a dual threat and able to run at times).

Edited June 25 by TheWei44

[julian]

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

You're going to have to help me out on this one...

 

What about our current receiver room suggests we got slower, less efficient and more LOS focused?

 

Shakir is the same, Coleman is considerably more athletic than Davis, Samuel is considerably more athletic than Stef, and any combination of Claypool/MVS/Hamler/Hollins destroys last years bottom of the roster in the HWS department. Honestly, Davis was the only guy on the roster that could even play split end last year. Stef is much better off the ball. Now we have at least 3 guys and hopefully 4 (Coleman)

 

I'll help you out.

 

Pretty sure 12 personnel was the most effective passing formation in the NFL last year.

 

I know it was in 2022.

 

With the most investment in the league at the TE position(a first rounder AND also a top contract) I would expect the Bills to be in 12 personnel a lot............presuming that Kincaid and Knox are both healthy this time around.

 

So it's probably going to be a lot of 2 receiver formations.

 

Which would make "any combination of Claypool/MVS/Hamler/Hollins" mostly irrelevant if Shakir/Samuel stay healthy and if the raw rookie Coleman can avoid being a weekly inactive.

 

The Bills used to be great passing out of 11 personnel.   Because the top of their WR corps was star quality.

 

Unless you are running 5 wide or have a ton of injuries it doesn't matter much who WR 4-7 are.   

 

 

Edited June 25 by BADOLBILZ

[3rdand12]

18 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

It's kind of hard to like them when you haven't seen them play together in this scheme.  My expectations are very low.  Outside of Kincaid, they're is no real threat

I might say it is easier to like them at this point.

before any one makes their first critical drop  lol

[3rdand12]

16 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

I felt better about the group after they signed MVS.  Sure, he’s no star, but he’s more promising as a big deep threat than someone like Shorter.  At least the defense has to account for him.

I sincerely hope so

I begged for outside speed pre draft wishes.

[3rdand12]

11 hours ago, eball said:

 

It will be interesting, no doubt.  As usual, the optimists are looking for the silver lining, the pessimists are predicting failure, and the middle-grounders are playing the wait-and-see game.

 

It is going to be extremely important for the Bills to avoid a slow start, and that worries me considering we will have two new starters at safety and an almost entirely new WR room.  I’m expecting the Kincaid/Shakir/Cook show to dominate the game plan early on.

 

 

I guess this is my outlook as well.

Knox and Davis as well

Kincaid is surely going to get the attention though

[Billy Claude]

11 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Our D allowed 17 or fewer points in four of those seven games.  During our 2-4 losing streak just prior to Brady's takeover, we allowed 17 or fewer points just once, against the Giants, which arguably had the worst offense in the league, ranking 30th in scoring and 29th in yardage.  

 

In those last 7 games our D allowed more than 22 points only once.  In the six games of that prior stretch we allowed 24, 24, 25, and 29 to teams that were, quite frankly, ranking 13th, 22nd, 26th, and 30th in yardage offense and 14th, 16th, 19th, and 31st in scoring.  

 

Had our D continued to play as it did during that 2-4 stretch, we wouldn't have made the playoffs.  Consider, that D TD against the Pats had we not gotten it, takes us out of a division win and puts us at the same 10-7 that got the Steelers the 7th seed, not sure which of us owned that tiebreaker for that 7th seed, but it's incredibly likely that we'd have lost two or three more games had our D not started playing better.  

 

So to your points, there is most certainly also a defensive element that was clearly not present in our 2-4 skid.  We have a habit, perhaps a bad one, of stepping up at key times but letting ourselves down in terms of consistency.  (Dallas in a huge game and the Jets in Brady's debut eg.)  That's a trait that should befall coaching.  It's not a positive, that inconsistency.  

 

 

 

Absolutely agree that the defense was bad during the last six games of Dorsey's tenure.  However, independent of the defense, the offense was also pretty bad during those six games.   Outside of the Chargers and Patriots games which I certainly don't want to discount, I don't see how anyone watching the Brady OC games would say that the Bills' offense did not at minimum look smoother and less discombulated than Dorsey's last six games.

 

The defense definitely played much  better during the last 9 games (with the exception of the KC playoff game).  A lot of this was due to McDermott adjusting and the pickup of Douglas after the first round of injuries. However, the defense also gave up fewer points because the offense held the ball so long so there were fewer drives per game. The defense also most likely started with better field position on average since there were fewer three and outs (these last two "facts" are guesses, I didn't check that). These appear to be unpopular words on the board but it really was textbook complementary football.

 

The main question is why did the offense look smoother under Brady?  If it was primarily due to Josh Allen running more then is it sustainable?   You bring up some data, i.e., Allen's lower completion percentage under Brady that suggests that this is the case so that is definitely something to be concerned about.

 

[Richard Noggin]

15 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I think this was simply people seeing the need for the Bills to acquire an elite #1 WR to fill the void left by the Diggs trade. That’s why we’ve seen so many (mostly) unrealistic trade scenarios put forth. But unfortunately sometimes what you need and what you can pull off do not align. Prior to the draft, my take was that the two best options were to either make a big trade up for one of the top three wide receivers or to trade back from 28 to acquire more draft capital and still draft a similarly rated WR prospect as could have been had at 28. The former wasn’t feasible so Beane did the next best thing. That seemed like solid process to me. 

 

The decision to trade with KC (and then Carolina), positioning to select Coleman and the actual choice of Coleman can all be debated. I don’t really want to do that here.  But I think the issue most fans had was not so much 40 times as wanting the Bills to acquire a true X WR and the prevailing opinion that Coleman is much better suited to being a Big Slot. So it’s more that some people believe that the bills passed on WR prospects that could have filled that X role for one that might not be well suited to it. 

 

Reasonable work here. Mostly agree.

 

The majority who crave that undisputed #1 boundary WR also seem to ignore the history of recent Super Bowl winners, the majority of whom did NOT have one of these perceived unicorn #1s. I get the desire to have an attention-drawing beast on the outside, but what if that isn't the answer? What if fantasy football and fan perception don't really matter on the field? What if receiving depth and distribution is the real cheat code? 

 

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Reasonable work here. Mostly agree.

 

The majority who crave that undisputed #1 boundary WR also seem to ignore the history of recent Super Bowl winners, the majority of whom did NOT have one of these perceived unicorn #1s. I get the desire to have an attention-drawing beast on the outside, but what if that isn't the answer? What if fantasy football and fan perception don't really matter on the field? What if receiving depth and distribution is the real cheat code? 

 

 

Every recent SB champion had a stud receiving option. The Patriots and Chiefs both had that at TE though. Heck, Brady had Evans in TB. Maybe that’ll be Kincaid for the Bills, but that’s TBD. 

 

The evidence that talent at WR is important in winning games and championships is overwhelming. Even KC, who just won the SB without a stud WR, revamped their WR corps. In any event, the Bills are going to give it a try this season w/o a #1 WR. Let’s see how that goes. 

[Kirby Jackson]

This thread has been interesting because some of the people defending the WR ROOM have talked about TE, Josh, Brady, etc… 😂 Yes, the Bills have some things to like on offense. They have a top 2 QB. Their OC led arguably the greatest college offense in history. They have a young TE that appears to be a future pro bowler. Their WRs are at, or near, the bottom of the league. That’s all true. When talking about the WR ROOM there is no need to talk about the QB, OC, TEs or RBs. They are not WRs.

[BillsFanForever19]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This thread has been interesting because some of the people defending the WR ROOM have talked about TE, Josh, Brady, etc… 😂 Yes, the Bills have some things to like on offense. They have a top 2 QB. Their OC led arguably the greatest college offense in history. They have a young TE that appears to be a future pro bowler. Their WRs are at, or near, the bottom of the league. That’s all true. When talking about the WR ROOM there is no need to talk about the QB, OC, TEs or RBs. They are not WRs.

 

Dalton Kincaid is as much a TE as Von Miller is a LB.

 

Much like Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid is a Big Slot WR. He very rarely lines up as a true Tight End. 

Edited June 26 by BillsFanForever19

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This thread has been interesting because some of the people defending the WR ROOM have talked about TE, Josh, Brady, etc… 😂 Yes, the Bills have some things to like on offense. They have a top 2 QB. Their OC led arguably the greatest college offense in history. They have a young TE that appears to be a future pro bowler. Their WRs are at, or near, the bottom of the league. That’s all true. When talking about the WR ROOM there is no need to talk about the QB, OC, TEs or RBs. They are not WRs.

 

And it is particularly weak OUTSIDE. I don't think you can run a top offense without any outside threat. Kincaid is really good, Cook if he can sort out the concentration drops in the redzone is really good. Knox is better than many admit, Shakir came on nicely last year and Curtis Samuel is a solid starting calibre receiver. But none of those are true outside matchup winners. And there is a reason that in the NFL, as a rule, the outside pays better than the inside. Tackles earn more than guards. Receivers earn more than tight ends and backs. Corners earn more than safeties. Because that is where it is harder to scheme to hide your deficiencies. Outside. Where it is man on man. And if that is where you lack talent then that is a problem.  

[Kirby Jackson]

31 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Dalton Kincaid is as much a TE as Von Miller is a LB.

 

Much like Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid is a Big Slot WR. He very rarely lines up as a true Tight End. 

I don’t disagree. The point remains. When talking about “the Bills WRs” we shouldn’t be talking about “the Bills TE.” That’s a different conversation. This conversation is about “the Bills WRs.”

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And it is particularly weak OUTSIDE. I don't think you can run a top offense without any outside threat. Kincaid is really good, Cook if he can sort out the concentration drops in the redzone is really good. Knox is better than many admit, Shakir came on nicely last year and Curtis Samuel is a solid starting calibre receiver. But none of those are true outside matchup winners. And there is a reason that in the NFL, as a rule, the outside pays better than the inside. Tackles earn more than guards. Receivers earn more than tight ends and backs. Corners earn more than safeties. Because that is where it is harder to scheme to hide your deficiencies. Outside. Where it is man on man. And if that is where you lack talent then that is a problem.  

[Mikey152]

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This thread has been interesting because some of the people defending the WR ROOM have talked about TE, Josh, Brady, etc… 😂 Yes, the Bills have some things to like on offense. They have a top 2 QB. Their OC led arguably the greatest college offense in history. They have a young TE that appears to be a future pro bowler. Their WRs are at, or near, the bottom of the league. That’s all true. When talking about the WR ROOM there is no need to talk about the QB, OC, TEs or RBs. They are not WRs.

And yet, every time 2023 KC receivers are brought up, you get some combination of "but Mahomes/Kelce/Reid"