I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[LeGOATski]

21 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

His name is irrelevant.

 

And you ignored the notion that Anderson was never anything special at WR, always a 2/3 tweener, at best.    

 

He's a WR that averaged under 700 yards and below 4 TDs/season.  

 

That's the competition that Samuel had. 

 

What's funny about this discussion is that everyone argued the same about Harty and Sherfield last season.  Wash/rinse/repeat.  

 

I'm quite content to let the season do the talking.  

 

 

He was great that year. Over 1000 yards receiving with Brady at OC. Which represents my point.

 

And Samuel over 1000 yards from scrimmage with Brady at OC. 

 

Samuel with Brady is an upgrade over Davis.

 

For as crappy as you think both these guys are, they both have better career catch rates than Davis.

[PBF81]

15 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

He was great that year. Over 1000 yards receiving with Brady at OC. Which represents my point.

 

And Samuel over 1000 yards from scrimmage with Brady at OC. 

 

Samuel with Brady is an upgrade over Davis.

 

For as crappy as you think both these guys are, they both have better career catch rates than Davis.

 

For someone that specializes in the higher-percentage (much higher) shorter routes to have a mere 65% catch% (10.7 career YPR) is hardly something to crow about.  

 

Otherwise, you missed my point.  Competing with Anderson, whom I already pointed out averaged fewer than 700 yards and 4 TDs per 16-games, and Moore, is going to be a whole lot different than competing for targets with Shakir, Kincaid, Coleman, MVS, and Knox.  

 

It's really not a difficult thing to conceive.  

 

Samuel's not likely to even sniff 1,000 this season.  

 

How would you breakdown each player on our offense by receiving yards?  

 

I'm not sure people understand how as a group there aren't as many passes thrown as envisioned independently.  Several of our WRs could conceivably hit 1,000;  Shakir, Kincaid, Coleman, Samuel, but it's unlikely that more than one actually do it.  We haven't had two WRs hit 1,000 on McD's watch yet.  But somehow this is the season that two or three are going to get 1,000 and what, in Samuel's case what, 150 targets, at 11 YPR and a 67% catch%, to do it?  

 

Few people think this through.  

 

 

[Meatloaf63]

10 hours ago, Billl said:

What makes you think that Samuel who signed a 3 year, $24 million contract is an improvement over Davis who signed a 3 year, $39 million contract?  In three more season played, Samuel has 650 more yards and 5 fewer TDs than Gabe.  I can see how he could be a better value at their respective price tags, but Davis got 63% more on the open market with nearly double the guaranteed money.

Who played with the better qb? Who played in a run first vs a pass first offense? Does that make a difference?

[LeGOATski]

19 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

For someone that specializes in the higher-percentage (much higher) shorter routes to have a mere 65% catch% (10.7 career YPR) is hardly something to crow about.  

 

Otherwise, you missed my point.  Competing with Anderson, whom I already pointed out averaged fewer than 700 yards and 4 TDs per 16-games, and Moore, is going to be a whole lot different than competing for targets with Shakir, Kincaid, Coleman, MVS, and Knox.  

 

It's really not a difficult thing to conceive.  

 

Samuel's not likely to even sniff 1,000 this season.  

 

How would you breakdown each player on our offense by receiving yards?  

 

I'm not sure people understand how as a group there aren't as many passes thrown as envisioned independently.  Several of our WRs could conceivably hit 1,000;  Shakir, Kincaid, Coleman, Samuel, but it's unlikely that more than one actually do it.  We haven't had two WRs hit 1,000 on McD's watch yet.  But somehow this is the season that two or three are going to get 1,000 and what, in Samuel's case what, 150 targets, at 11 YPR and a 67% catch%, to do it?  

 

Few people think this through.  

 

 

Stopped reading at the 2nd paragraph because it sounds like you're arguing in favor of this WR corps now.

 

Samuel is a 1000 total yard weapon under Brady, but he's going to have a tough time competing for targets with the likes of Coleman, Shakir, MVS, and Knox....

 

Woah ....

 

I guess this receiving room really HAS gotten MUCH better!

 

I'm not sure you understand Samuel's role anyway.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Re-watching the KC game I had the same revelation. Davis wasn’t even in the game. It was a skeleton crew after 14 and 10

[BADOLBILZ]

14 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Lets just start with the top 5 WRs, Bills just dropped a video yesterday or the day before , so pretty much confirmed our top 5..

 

Last year                This year

Diggs                       Coleman

Davis                        Samuel

Shakir                       Shakir

Harty                         Hollins

Sherfield                   MVS

 

There's obviously a huge question mark with Coleman, as with any rookie WR but should be dynamic in this O. 

 

I'm huge on Shakir, I really think he's going to be a stud this year and eclipse 1k yards. 

 

Huge fan of Samuel,  he does it all, you can put this guy anywhere, including the backfield and he's explosive and makes plays and that was on a terrible O with terrible QB play. Skys the limit, loved the signing. 

 

Hollins is interesting but he's an elite run blocker , which Brady has shown,  we're running the ball, bottom line , and not a great year statistically last year but I could see him having his 22 season where he put up 57 rec 690 yards 4 TDs. This was Gabe his first 2 years and this is his replacement for much cheaper. Plus he's a certified leader..

 

MVS , yes the drops and statistically wasn't great in the regular season but you can argue he's the reason KC won the SB. In our game he had 62 yards, 17 more yards than Kincaid who was our top guy w 45 yards. Would've loved to have him in January last year. Made huge big , long catches. Meanwhile Diggs is dropping wide open TDs which win us that game.. 

 

And at 6 , Claypool, Hamler, Shorter etc will fight it out 

 

Bottom line , this is a much deeper WR group. Harty/Sherfield were busts, they were awful. And with Gabe injured vs KC, it showed how weak our depth was. No offense,  but I never want to see Andy Isabella playing in a playoff game and that won't happen again with the depth added. Sherfield/Harty also had no business being out there. 

 

Obviously Coleman is a huge key to this group and puzzle but I see no reason he can't be the guy we expect him to be. Plus Kincaid year 2. Cook year 3. Upgraded RB room

This is going to be a fun O to watch. Probably the best we've seen with Allen because of WR depth, elite RB/TE and Brady calling plays

 

*Not to crap on Diggs, I really admire his game and intensity, I have him as my profile picture but the fact that Beane ate 30+ mil and took a future 2, clearly they thought he was just to disruptive in the locker room, as a leader. The Cincy game leaving his teammates,  as a captain, speaks volumes.

McBeane has built this team on family and doing your 1/11th on o and d and Diggs just didn't fit that culture. Good luck but good riddance 

 

 

 

 

 

Give us your projected receiving numbers for this dynamic new group if you are so confident.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

What's funny about this discussion is that everyone argued the same about Harty and Sherfield last season.  Wash/rinse/repeat.  

 

 

 

Yep. 

 

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

20 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Deeper, yes, I think that's completely legit.

 

Better? Without Diggs? No, absolutely not, unless somebody like Coleman or Claypool takes a huge step up. But could they be a functional efficient group that can move the ball and give defenses a lot of trouble? Yeah, I think so, particularly with Josh throwing to them and a run game that threatens.

Thurm, normally I always agree with you, but consider this point.  Diggs is now turning 31 in November and was not impactful the last 8 games.  Most WR’s over 30 start slowing down and that kills their performance.  He may still have a solid year this year, and this WR group is a wildcard.  I’m not positive or negative on these guys as it is a question mark.

[Kirby Jackson]

We’ve reached peak offseason. On paper, the Bills have a bottom 3 WR group. They could be last. If you added Aiyuk (for example) they’re still in the bottom half of the league. The reason that we all like the depth is because they have like 5 number 3’s. It’s fine for our fandom to overshadow our objectivity. Pretending that this group is good on June 24th is just not realistic. Hopefully they way overperform expectations and end up an average group. They will have every opportunity to succeed with a top 2 QB delivering the ball. 

[boyst]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We’ve reached peak offseason. On paper, the Bills have a bottom 3 WR group. They could be last. If you added Aiyuk (for example) they’re still in the bottom half of the league. The reason that we all like the depth is because they have like 5 number 3’s. It’s fine for our fandom to overshadow our objectivity. Pretending that this group is good on June 24th is just not realistic. Hopefully they way overperform expectations and end up an average group. They will have every opportunity to succeed with a top 2 QB delivering the ball. 

it is lauhgable that anyone thinks we are a strong WR team. we are not. we are average to good at RB. we are good at TE (so long as Knox isn't awful this year). we are below average at WR. We overachieved at OL last year and if we do not this year we will be average. the only spot on the team where we are above good is QB.

[JP51]

I am debating in my head because I feel optimistic for the change... but then I wonder if I am just whistling by the graveyard and fooling myself... Time will tell. 

 

I think that if a true #1 emerges and Dalton Kincaid takes a step closer to a Kelce type tight end we may end up happy with the room at this point. We have speed MVS and Hamler, we have possession Shakir, Samuel .... but who is the pure 1... the route runner, the go to, the one they double up making others better. I don't think Coleman figures into the mix for this ( if he has a season like a 2nd year Gabe Davis that would be success). Shakir/Samuel would seem to be the best hope for a true emergence I am not sure I see teams game planning around them but one can hope. The wild card here that interests me is Claypool... this is an enigma he could easily fall off the chart and get cut. But if he has an epiphany, changes his spots and works his craft he certainly has the talent to be a if not a true #1 something like 1a guy.  

 

In the end I feel like there is reason for hope, but like a lot of things with this team, Safety, LB, OL, lots of IFs, lots of reliance on internal  improvement and development. There is hope for this... and if it comes together we are much better for it now and down the road. If it doesn't and we need to upgrade at least we are in a better position to do it.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We’ve reached peak offseason. On paper, the Bills have a bottom 3 WR group. They could be last. If you added Aiyuk (for example) they’re still in the bottom half of the league. The reason that we all like the depth is because they have like 5 number 3’s. It’s fine for our fandom to overshadow our objectivity. Pretending that this group is good on June 24th is just not realistic. Hopefully they way overperform expectations and end up an average group. They will have every opportunity to succeed with a top 2 QB delivering the ball. 

 

I'd say they got worse at the top 2 spots for sure, at least on paper. 

 

- Samuel is objectively worse than diggs.  I'd say the only thing Samuel offers more than Diggs is YAC.  He's faster, but I'd trust diggs to create more separation on a deep route.  However Diggs is going to be 31 in November, and while he's largely avoided injury - age is always creeping up.  Is Diggs today the same as the Diggs people compare to Samuel?  I think an argument can be made that he is not the same Diggs.  I'd still take Diggs the player over Samuel though.  

 

+/- Coleman is a rookie.  It's a see it to truly believe it type of thing - but rookie WRs have come in and made huge contributions in the past so it wouldn't shock me.  Higgins (also pick 33) had 67/900/6 his rookie season with a rookie QB and Boyd/Green taking a lot of targets.  Comparing him the player vs. Davis?  Davis had certain routes that he was really good at, and flashed an impressive catch radius at times.  Great sideline feet.  He was also a plus blocker.  My issues with him were concentration drops, and miscommunications.  It just felt like the majority of throws to "no one" were almost always with him reading the coverage differently.  I do think this spot in the offense may get more targets, and i think there is the strong possibility that coleman exceeds davis production.  Big strong dude too, who likes the physical blocking aspects of the position.  

 

= Shakir is the returning player... but he's also in year 3, had a very strong year 2 despite giving up targets to players like Kincaid Diggs and harty.  And i think he's primed to take a good step.  He has become a very solid blocker as well.  

 

+ Sherfield couldn't create much in the way of separation, played special teams on a lousy unit so i don't see much of a reason to bring him back anyway.  Hollins can hopefully help improve the teams unit, and has made much greater offensive contributions to his prior teams.

 

+ MVS technically replaces Harty, who never really got going here.  Did have an absolutely money return at a critical juncture, and made a few plays here and there but never saw the field enough to make any noise.  Buffalo drafted a returner who also is a DB, so judging him just based on offense - He's been upgraded with a superior deep threat, and any of his gadget type contributions are likely upgraded with Samuel/Shakir.  

37 minutes ago, boyst said:

it is lauhgable that anyone thinks we are a strong WR team. we are not. we are average to good at RB. we are good at TE (so long as Knox isn't awful this year). we are below average at WR. We overachieved at OL last year and if we do not this year we will be average. the only spot on the team where we are above good is QB.

 

I think the thing is - we weren't particularly strong at WR before either.  Just had Diggs as a reliable bonafide #1.  

[BillsVet]

McBeane haven't had a WR group appropriate to this QB since the first year he began playing like a franchise QB in 2020.  Every subsequent year he's played at or close to that level they've been middling with their approach to WR's.  

 

After 3 complete seasons and entering a 4th the WR issue has been kicked around here frequently.  Answer is they don't believe the position warrants better talent.

 

And every year they're wrong.  Doesn't stop them from thinking some combination of a new OC, Josh playing better with less, a better running game, or WR/TE running shorter, safer patterns will work. 

[Don Otreply]

Imo, both Diggs and Davis did their late and post season disappearing act, while Shakir and Kincaid continued their upward trends, when your “top two” receivers aren’t producing and you are depending on a first and second year pass catchers it’s no wonder the offense sputtered in the post season, like it or not Diggs career post season production has never been what one would call good…, the numbers don’t lie, 

[shane nelson]

I totally agree, we also have two great TE and a RB who can run, if he catches the ball ;).  I see extensive ball distribution.  Plus Josh's handcuffs will be unlocked.  I think the offense will be very good this year

[hondo in seattle]

11 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

For someone that specializes in the higher-percentage (much higher) shorter routes to have a mere 65% catch% (10.7 career YPR) is hardly something to crow about.  

 

...

 

 

 

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

 

Statistics are not effective measures of individual talent in the NFL.   For example, Passer Rating was invented to measure how good QBs are.  Josh Allen was 16th in Passer Rating last year.  According to statistics, Brady would be a fool to build his offense around such a mediocre QB.  

RBs are often rated by the yards they gain.  In 1971, OJ was ranked 15th in rushing yards.  Yet Lou Saban built an offense around him and we know what happened.  I'm glad Saban used his football smarts to evaluate Simpson and not a stat sheet.  

 

Catch percentage has a lot to do with ball placement.  Scheme helps, too: If the OC gets an receiver wide open, he's more likely to make the catch than when a receiver is fighting for a contested ball.  

 

If talent was perfectly measured by stats, we would let analytic guys run teams.  Yet when the Browns tried that (DePodesta, et al.), they failed.  

 

And if Catch Rate is your Be-All/End-All stat, then we should be good with Samuel because his catch rate last year (68.1%) was better than Puka Nacua's (67.1%) and yet Puka - with a better QB - had 1,486 receiving yards.  And Samuel had only two drops so it's not like has hands of stone.  I'll take the 1,486 yards.

 

Samuel will have the best QB throwing to him that he's ever had so I expect a good year from him.  Though, I think Brady intends to spread the ball around far more than Dorsey did.  I wouldn't be entirely shocked if none of our receivers broke 1,000.  It's going to be an interesting season.  

 

 

[NewEra]

35 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Imo, both Diggs and Davis did their late and post season disappearing act, while Shakir and Kincaid continued their upward trends, when your “top two” receivers aren’t producing and you are depending on a first and second year pass catchers it’s no wonder the offense sputtered in the post season, like it or not Diggs career post season production has never been what one would call good…, the numbers don’t lie, 

Mmhmmm-  pretty much useless in the playoffs

[ColoradoBills]

15 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Mmhmmm-  pretty much useless in the playoffs

 

Diggs last 4 years of playoffs (9 games total), 61% catch rate and 2 TDs.

Knox, in that same time frame had a 72% catch rate and 6 TDs.

 

What is important this coming season is catch rate and TDs.  I can care less who is getting the targets, just catch the ball.

If the Bills WRs/TEs/RBs catch the ball and catch TDs the team will win. 

[Warriorspikes51]

The offense may be better if the top 5 WR's are all actually used and reliable on gameday

Sherfield brought almost nothing and had multiple drops against KC.
Harty was a complete non-factor all year save his PR TD to win us the division

MVS and Hollins are absolutely upgrades from both players.  Both have shown they can produce when given a role.  MVS is a big game performer.

 

[Beck Water]

On 6/23/2024 at 9:28 AM, Taro Nimbus said:

I think Claypool gets in over Hollins

 

I think the Bills would be foolish for that.

 

Look, no one can doubt Claypool's talent, but teams have literally thrown him off the bus the last two seasons.  Pittsburgh after 8 games in 2022, and Chicago after 3 games in 2023.  Literally, Chicago deactivated the guy they'd just traded a 2nd round pick for the previous season, then told him to stay the ***** home and out of their facility.  That's last season.  Then, he missed a couple games for Miami due to injury, and played mostly on special teams.

OK, great, he's coming in hot at the Bills OTAs and saying/doing all the right things.  But 1) is he a guy you can trust to stay positive and high-energy and team-focused mid-season if the team loses 3 out of 4 or 4 out of 6 as they did last season?  Or will he start yapping to the media and phoning it in on the field?

 

I don't bet, but if I did, I *would* bet the rent you can trust Mack Hollins for the former. 

 

I wouldn't bet a limp biscuit on Claypool for that.  Nothing against him, but he's demonstrated some bad team habits x2 and needs to show us more than a good pair of preseason hands.

Edited June 24 by Beck Water