Dalton Kincaid/Dawson Knox.....over/under 110 combined receptions??

[Special K]

Glad to see so many on this board so upbeat about the TE position!

 

I've seen many people say they think Kincaid can get 110 receptions on his own.....while I think there is a decent chance he gets to 100, that is still a big ask for a 2nd year TE.....I would consider 80-90 receptions a successful season for Dalton.

 

I believe Kincaid and Knox have the talent to put up big numbers, I just hope Brady can create an offense that gets the most out of these guys, and really makes Kincaid the centerpiece weapon after the departure of Diggs. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I'm over on this. Prob 90 Kincaid 30 Knox 

[Bookie Man]

75 / 30

[Maine-iac]

I can see Kincaid catching 70 to 80 and Knox catching 30 to 40 which puts them right at the mark.  I'm hoping Kincaid comes out and looks like he could catch 100.  

[Rampant Buffalo]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Easy over.

 

How would you like your eggs? 😉

10 hours ago, US Egg said:

[participates in thread]

 

There was a perfectly good egg joke to be had here. Out of every single person who ever participated in this forum, you are the one who should have been most equipped to see that joke! 😮

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

How would you like your eggs? 😉

With bacon and American cheese on a hard roll- of course

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

I'm over on this. Prob 90 Kincaid 30 Knox 

90 might be stretching it imo

 

Only 3 guys went over 90 catches last season and I'm thinking we pass less than before

[Freddie's Dead]

Kincaid - 90

Knox - 25 (10 drops)

49 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

90 might be stretching it imo

 

Only 3 guys went over 90 catches last season and I'm thinking we pass less than before

 

Oh ye of little faith....  In Reuben we trust!!

[US Egg]

3 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

How would you like your eggs? 😉

 

There was a perfectly good egg joke to be had here. Out of every single person who ever participated in this forum, you are the one who should have been most equipped to see that joke! 😮

[Bookie Man]

It really is hard to predict Kincaid's catch number. So many new parts, you really don't know how the targets are going to be distributed. I could see Kincaid catching 75 balls and then Shakir, Samuel and Keon all catching around 60-65. Who knows with MVS and Claypool. Maybe around 35 each? I don't think we'll anyone catch 90+. I feel like the ball is going to be spread out A LOT this year, which I love. Makes it hard on the defense. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

80/40.

 

i would actually be surprised if Knox doesn’t get to 40.  I think HE may be one of the secrets this year, because we know about Kincaid.

 

[Thurman#1]

22 hours ago, Beast said:

There have only been 11 times a tight end has caught 100 passes in a season and Kelce owns 3 of those 11. I think that number (110) is right about where it should be for the two combined.

 

 

Fair enough, but there are a lot more who've gotten 90 in a year and that's my rough guess for Kincaid. 

 

I'd take the over every time on this.

 

Particularly when Kincaid managed 73 last year in a season when during the first 6 weeks he only had 17 (2.83 per game) but in the last eleven, he managed 56 (5.09 per game). 

 

And 5.09 per game multiplied by 17 is 86.5 per game. So he was already going at a nearly 90 reception pace for the last 11 weeks.

 

 

Edited June 23 by Thurman#1

[ColoradoBills]

Brady should have Knox targeted a couple times a game as the odd man not covered.  Keeping Knox in to block and then letting

him slip out could be big gainers and I expect that to be the case.  Knox will also have the opportunity to be a checkdown for Josh

when the others are covered and time in the pocket is running out.

 

That comes to Knox getting 2 catches a game minimum.  So, 35-40 catches for the season are reasonable IF he stays healthy.

How Dawson is used this season is a big interest to me.  Brady has to use these 2 TEs correctly!

Kincaid will get more than his 73 receptions last season which means the OVER is the pick.

[iccrewman112]

I think the offense runs through Kincaid somewhere in the 150 target range. So over for me. I expect big things from Kincaid especially if he and Allen can get on the same page about leading Kincaid away from defenders in soft zones allowing for good run after catch.

[Process]

Over, but that's a good line. Something like 90/30 sounds about right. 

[Big Turk]

On 6/22/2024 at 3:23 PM, NewEra said:

I think it’s the opposite-  I think we can go over 110 if Kincaid plays in 17 games and knox missed the entire season

 

Kincaid is the only one that needs to stay healthy to hit 110

 

Well, what I meant was that we need both Kincaid and Knox to stay healthy because I don't think Kincaid is getting that many targets, although if nobody else steps up, he very well could be Allen's favorite target.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Well, what I meant was that we need both Kincaid and Knox to stay healthy because I don't think Kincaid is getting that many targets, although if nobody else steps up, he very well could be Allen's favorite target.

I hear ya

 

i think Kincaid is going to lead the team in targets by a fair margin.  I also think that Quinton Morris is a solid receiving threat and, if knox is injured, could step in and catch 15-20 passes if used.

 

 

[Special K]

Update with 3 games remaining:

 

Kincaid: 38 receptions

Knox: 19 receptions

 

Total: 57 receptions

 

Wow...myself and a lot of others were way off on this one.

 

Obviously, Kincaid missing the games he missed did not help, but I don't think they would have reached the over anyway.

 

It certainly hasn't hurt the Offense at all, but I think Kincaid not being more a centerpiece of the Offense was one of the bigger surprises of the year so far for me.

[Freddie's Dead]

31 minutes ago, Special K said:

Update with 3 games remaining:

 

Kincaid: 38 receptions

Knox: 19 receptions

 

Total: 57 receptions

 

Wow...myself and a lot of others were way off on this one.

 

Obviously, Kincaid missing the games he missed did not help, but I don't think they would have reached the over anyway.

 

It certainly hasn't hurt the Offense at all, but I think Kincaid not being more a centerpiece of the Offense was one of the bigger surprises of the year so far for me.

 

Agreed.  Really expected Reuben to take the next step.  Also surprising that in his absence, Knox didn't have more receptions.

[T master]

On 6/21/2024 at 11:02 PM, Special K said:

This one could be a little tricky, because we can't be sure exactly how Brady plans to use Knox.

 

Will the Bills feature 2 TE formations? Will Knox be able to not stay in and block as much due to an improved O-line? Can Knox stay healthy?

 

As for Kincaid, I see no problem with him being able to replicate his reception total from last year of 73, but will his receptions increase as he becomes more of a centerpiece of the passing offense after the departure of Diggs?

 

My prediction:

 

85 receptions for Kincaid, 32 for Knox for a total of 117. 

 

I'm taking the over.

 

Well i hope moving forward that Brady realizes just what he has had as another weapon with Knox, I say that because before Kincaid got hurt it was like Brady was funneling 90% of the TE throws to Kincaid & left Knox to be nothing but either a blocker or a decoy of sorts to not be used & i hope he's remembered how valuable Knox is in this offense .

 

But with that if he does continue to scheme Knox with Kincaid these guys could be a force & just another thing teams need to be prepared for .

Edited Friday at 01:56 PM by T master