AFCE team with the best chance of taking the division title away from the Bills

[Rocky Landing]

17 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

The premise of this thread is that some other AFCE team takes the division from the Bills. Two ways that could happen.

 

1) The Bills take a step down, creating a void for some other team to fill.

2) The Bills stay about the same. The Bills fail to win the division because some other team takes a step up.

 

If we're talking scenario 1), then I agree with the majority that it likely comes down to the Jets or the Dolphins. But if we're talking scenario 2), I'd argue that it could just as easily be the Patriots as any other team in our division. They have the most upside, if stuff goes their way.

The most important piece of "stuff going their way" would be for Drake May to exceed all expectations, and very quickly transform from a raw, boom/bust prospect into an NFL phenom. The idea that he could do that quickly enough, and to a degree that they could take the division from three teams that are clearly more talented, with the specious O-line, and pedestrian receiving corp they currently have, is a sucker's bet.

[Rampant Buffalo]

2 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

The most important piece of "stuff going their way" would be for Drake May to exceed all expectations, and very quickly transform from a raw, boom/bust prospect into an NFL phenom. The idea that he could do that quickly enough, and to a degree that they could take the division from three teams that are clearly more talented, with the specious O-line, and pedestrian receiving corp they currently have, is a sucker's bet.

 

When I talk about stuff going their way, I'm not just referring to Drake Maye becoming an elite QB. I'm also referring to their 2nd round WR, and their 3rd and 4th round round OL, coming in and making good contributions quickly. Finally, their defense would need to maintain the top 10 level of play it provided in 2023. If that combination of events happens, they'd have a decent shot at overtaking the Jets and Dolphins. Maybe Rodgers is not what he was two years ago. Maybe the Dolphins take a step back. 

[SoTier]

The Jests are the most dangerous divisional foe IF --

• Rodgers comes in healthy and stays healthy
• Rodgers plays at least as well as a top ten QB which means he not only has to come in physically ready but also  has to be "into" the game not distracted by his plans for his life after football
• the Jests' reworked OL has to gel early and play significantly better than it did last season
• the Jests' defense has to play well all season
• Saleh and his staff have to coach better, including adapting to the inevitable setbacks on both sides of the ball

I don't think that the Fish are really players in the divisional race unless the Bills have very serious injury problems and the Jests don't step up.   They have been a one-trick pony the last two seasons, using their offense to overwhelm poor defensive teams but struggling against teams with good defenses that stop or adapt to their vaunted offensive show.   Their defense was decent last season, but they've lost some key pieces in the off season while putting most of their resources into the offensive side, particularly offensive weapons.   That doesn't seem to be a good recipe for improving their record against good teams.

 

[Doc Brown]

10 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

When I talk about stuff going their way, I'm not just referring to Drake Maye becoming an elite QB. I'm also referring to their 2nd round WR, and their 3rd and 4th round round OL, coming in and making good contributions quickly. Finally, their defense would need to maintain the top 10 level of play it provided in 2023. If that combination of events happens, they'd have a decent shot at overtaking the Jets and Dolphins. Maybe Rodgers is not what he was two years ago. Maybe the Dolphins take a step back. 

It's highly unlikely even one of those three things happen and even if all three magically do you'd have to rely on the Jets and Dolphins vastly underperforming with significantly better rosters.  It's quite the argument for a team that has the second hardest schedule and the highest current odds to get the #1 draft pick next year.  Even delusional Pats fans aren't that optimisitic this season.

Edited June 23 by Doc Brown

[BullBuchanan]

Vote dolphins. We'll be playing the dolphins in Miami on 4 days rest on September 12th. High chance of it being the Heat Stroke Game all over again. They have so much talent on their team that if they split with us, I could see them winning more games than us for sure. The Jets are a possibility. Rodgers may have one more year where he can throw a team on his back, but I'm not a believer right now.

[machine gun kelly]

I just don’t see any other AFCE team beating the Bills for the division title.  What i can see is another team getting one of the wildcard spots.

[TheWeatherMan]

The Jets schedule alone makes them the bigger threat to win the division.  Their defense will keep them in most every game so all their offense has to do is be average and they should win 10+ games.  

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

Vote dolphins. We'll be playing the dolphins in Miami on 4 days rest on September 12th. High chance of it being the Heat Stroke Game all over again. They have so much talent on their team that if they split with us, I could see them winning more games than us for sure. The Jets are a possibility. Rodgers may have one more year where he can throw a team on his back, but I'm not a believer right now.

Their OL and DL were gutted this year plus are moving to a brand new defensive system.  Offense is loaded with lethal skill players, but their ability to protect Tua and stop the run is very suspect. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

Miami returning pretty much the same team.

 

They have made three straight playoffs.

 

Additionally and I know I live in the minority here, other than against the Bills Tua is a pretty good QB.  Honestly.

 

”but he is only good because he has great weapons.”  Well…he still has them.

 

We have the opposite problem with the Jets than we do with the dolphins… Everybody beats them, except us as far as sweeping them. The Jets are no fun to play but we always make our own problems against them.

 

The Jets are the only team to beat us in back to back regular seasons this decade…and that is ridiculous.

 

 

 

[BillsFan130]

7 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Miami returning pretty much the same team.

 

They have made three straight playoffs.

 

Additionally and I know I live in the minority here, other than against the Bills Tua is a pretty good QB.  Honestly.

 

”but he is only good because he has great weapons.”  Well…he still has them.

 

We have the opposite problem with the Jets than we do with the dolphins… Everybody beats them, except us as far as sweeping them. The Jets are no fun to play but we always make our own problems against them.

 

The Jets are the only team to beat us in back to back regular seasons this decade…and that is ridiculous.

 

 

 

On defence Miami has had some pretty big turnover. No Wilkins, Howard or Jerome Baker, 3 key starters. (And Ogbah as a depth piece)

On offence they are pretty similar outside of their o line as no Williams or Hunt returning.

 

They remind me of the bills off season a bit where they released some veteran guys as they were tight to the cap.

 

I Def agree about Tua. Hes not great, but he's a pretty descent QB who runs the system well.

[SoonerBillsFan]

None.

[Beck Water]

On 6/21/2024 at 5:52 AM, JohnNord said:

Curious to why people think Miami is more of threat than NYJ?  

 

'Cuz they were actually leading the division last year until the Bills snuck up to a tie and beat them in the last game

 

And 'cuz no one knows what level of play Rodgers will return to

 

16 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Vote dolphins. We'll be playing the dolphins in Miami on 4 days rest on September 12th. High chance of it being the Heat Stroke Game all over again. 

 

The game starts at 8:15 EDT.

Sun set on Sept 12 in Miami is 7:27 meaning by 8:15 it's twilight

 

So, No

Edited June 24 by Beck Water

[julian]

Jets

 

Dolphins had a 3 game lead with 5 to go and a week 18 home game to win the division and couldn’t get it done. The odds of them having another opportunity as good as last year are pretty slim.

[BullBuchanan]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

'Cuz they were actually leading the division last year until the Bills snuck up to a tie and beat them in the last game

 

And 'cuz no one knows what level of play Rodgers will return to

 

 

The game starts at 8:15 EDT.

Sun set on Sept 12 in Miami is 7:27 meaning by 8:15 it's twilight

 

So, No

You've never been in the south in September then? It was 92 in Austin today at 8:15.

[Stank_Nasty]

9 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

You've never been in the south in September then? It was 92 in Austin today at 8:15.

The sidelines were nearly 30 degrees difference because of the shading of that stadium. 92 isn’t even close to 110+. The issue has always been the discrepancy between team sidelines. This is well known. 
 

… also the average evening temp in Miami for sept is 76. So it’s mostly likely not even close to the “stroke game”. It’s ok to be wrong sometimes. 

Edited June 24 by Stank_Nasty

[Gregg]

11 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

The sidelines were nearly 30 degrees difference because of the shading of that stadium. 92 isn’t even close to 110+. The issue has always been the discrepancy between team sidelines. This is well known. 
 

… also the average evening temp in Miami for sept is 76. So it’s mostly likely not even close to the “stoke game”. It’s ok to be wrong sometimes. 

 

This year the Bills have no excuse with the heat. Playing in Miami in September will be hot but at least it's a night game. No sun so it's the same for both teams.

[BullBuchanan]

7 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

The sidelines were nearly 30 degrees difference because of the shading of that stadium. 92 isn’t even close to 110+. The issue has always been the discrepancy between team sidelines. This is well known. 
 

… also the average evening temp in Miami for sept is 76. So it’s mostly likely not even close to the “stroke game”. It’s ok to be wrong sometimes. 

That's great advice - you should take it. It was 86 degrees last September 12th at 8pm in Miami with 72% humidity for a real feel of 93 degrees.
https://world-weather.info/forecast/usa/miami/12-september/

“Generally, caution should be taken if the heat index is over 77 degrees (Fahrenheit). Above 82 degrees is considered ‘extreme caution’ — heat-related illness is possible with long exposure. Over 85 is dangerous — heat illness is likely and heat stroke is possible. Eighty-nine and above gives a high risk of heat stroke,” Dr. Sterling Ransone, a practicing family physician in Deltaville, Virginia, told Healthline."

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-you-should-do-if-you-exercise-work-in-the-heat

 

Edited June 24 by BullBuchanan

[Stank_Nasty]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

That's great advice - you should take it. It was 86 degrees last September 12th at 8pm in Miami with 72% humidity for a real feel of 93 degrees.
https://world-weather.info/forecast/usa/miami/12-september/

“Generally, caution should be taken if the heat index is over 77 degrees (Fahrenheit). Above 82 degrees is considered ‘extreme caution’ — heat-related illness is possible with long exposure. Over 85 is dangerous — heat illness is likely and heat stroke is possible. Eighty-nine and above gives a high risk of heat stroke,” Dr. Sterling Ransone, a practicing family physician in Deltaville, Virginia, told Healthline."

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-you-should-do-if-you-exercise-work-in-the-heat

 

Ya. That sounds exactly like the game in 22 🙄🙄🙄🙄… wrong. Deal with it. 

[Einstein]

17 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

You've never been in the south in September then? It was 92 in Austin today at 8:15.

 

I think he is saying that the heat wasn’t necessarily the problem in that game 2 years ago. It was the sun. Which was only on our sidelines.

[BullBuchanan]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I think he is saying that the heat wasn’t necessarily the problem in that game 2 years ago. It was the sun. Which was only on our sidelines.

He might be saying that, but the sun is only a factor to the point that it's typically hotter in the sun vs the shade at a given place and time. You can get heatstroke inside, so I don't consider it to be that much of a factor in this discussion if the weather is still hot and we're still unprepared for it.

Regardless, my comment was a little tongue in cheek. I don't expect us to lose 10 players to injury again, but I expect an extremely high likelihood where they're unprepared to play in that kind of environment on short rest and lose while looking listless in the process.

[90sBills]

That team doesn’t exist.