Brett Kollmann - Good analysis of the Bills based on watching tape not just following narratives

[Billy Claude]

13 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Well the plan shouldn't just be for the 2024 season.   SF who doesn't have immediate need for a WR used a 1st and 4th- seems like they have a plan.  Remember when the Bills needed a CB and drafted Elam and a 6th- that was wise for the CB room that year (even though in my mind that was the year they should have been planning for the WR problem, going C Watkins or Pickens).  To me, if we had K Coleman and T Franklin the future would be more exciting.

 

Speaking of not having much of a plan, what is the thinking for 2025?  Right now the same major void at WR looms.  Maybe the plan is to wait several weeks in and see if they can get a WR from one of the losing franchises that need a QB, Raiders/Tenn/Seattle.  But that comes across as more of a desperation move than a plan.  

 

Everybody loves Ray Davis right now, but I definitely wouldn't have minded if they use that draft choice and some other assets to go up and get Franklin. 

 

 

[Mikey152]

21 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

Everybody loves Ray Davis right now, but I definitely wouldn't have minded if they use that draft choice and some other assets to go up and get Franklin. 

 

 

I liked him, too. But the Bills put a lot of time/work in with Franklin and passed quite a few times...clearly they had a reason to not draft him. Guess we will see if they were right.

[Einstein's Dog]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't think it's an "either/or" on Samuel vs. "outside WR".  They needed to replace Cole Beasley; Crowder/McKenzie were not adequate in 2022.  And, they knew Gabe Davis had priced himself out of what they were able/willing to pay, so they needed to replace him too.

 

We needed Samuel, and we needed someone with Davis skillset, while we had Diggs on the team.

 

Once we traded him, we needed all 3.

 

Time will tell

I agree we could use all 3.  But once the FO knew they had the cap/cash constraints they had to make choices.   With a limited budget putting $8M into the Crowder/McKenzie role seems excessive, especially in light of not having the Diggs/Davis roles secured.  That's why I wonder if things didn't go further south after they acquired C Samuel. 

 

I had thought for a long time that the plan was Samuel as the bridge for the rookie at outside while being the major backup for Shakir.  A versatile piece that fit in with a dual role (and potentially help fill part of the J Cook role if he got injured).  That's valuable. 

 

Having Samuel slated as a starting outside WR is not his strength.  Getting an expensive backup when you need two outside WRs though doesn't make as much sense.

[Sierra Foothills]

7 hours ago, Magox said:

Some people are writing off Keon Coleman before training camp. 🙃

 

Kollman is slow to write-off Coleman.

 

7 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Zero people are doing that.

 

Plenty of people here are predicting his selection was a mistake. They might not be writing him off but they're predicting that he'll bust.

 

[corta765]

On 6/16/2024 at 12:03 PM, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

This is true. 15 rush TDs for a QB is insane. As a fantasy football nerd I love it, but Brady needs to tone it down and put that stress on Cook & newly acquired Ray Davis. 

 

Agreed but also remember Damian Harris who was pretty productive for his role had his season and unfortunately career end mid season. Even if the Bills wanted to switch with Brady to other trust worthy guys, they were banged up in spots and it was Josh or Bust.

 

Completely agree and expect a bit more measured approach this year with hopefully better health.

[Einstein's Dog]

15 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I liked him, too. But the Bills put a lot of time/work in with Franklin and passed quite a few times...clearly they had a reason to not draft him. Guess we will see if they were right.

They may have had K Coleman/McConkey/T Franklin/Pearsall all in the same tier.  If may have been a reason the Bills were comfortable moving down in the draft.

 

But the Bills draft strategy may have been to just take one WR early.  And then draft other positions that they felt could fill a need throughout the remaining rounds.  WR, S, DT, RB, OC, LB, DE, OT, CB.  That's nine players on rookie salaries.

[Mikey152]

27 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree we could use all 3.  But once the FO knew they had the cap/cash constraints they had to make choices.   With a limited budget putting $8M into the Crowder/McKenzie role seems excessive, especially in light of not having the Diggs/Davis roles secured.  That's why I wonder if things didn't go further south after they acquired C Samuel. 

 

I had thought for a long time that the plan was Samuel as the bridge for the rookie at outside while being the major backup for Shakir.  A versatile piece that fit in with a dual role (and potentially help fill part of the J Cook role if he got injured).  That's valuable. 

 

Having Samuel slated as a starting outside WR is not his strength.  Getting an expensive backup when you need two outside WRs though doesn't make as much sense.

 

Samuel and Shakir will be fine playing outside, especially off the ball. Samuel is almost the exact same size as Diggs, and is one of the best in the NFL against man coverage. I don't expect him to be all-pro like Diggs was, but skills and body wise he isn't as far off as people think.

 

He had over 1k yards from scrimmage his one year with Brady.

Edited June 17 by Mikey152

[transplantbillsfan]

 

If you liked that you should also listen to this. Skip ahead to the 6th team they talk about... it's Buffalo.

 

Only good things

[Rampant Buffalo]

On 6/17/2024 at 8:26 AM, Magox said:

Some people are writing off Keon Coleman before training camp. 🙃

 

I plan to wait until after training camp before I write him off. Does that make you happy?

[TheWeatherMan]

On 6/17/2024 at 10:20 PM, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Kollman is slow to write-off Coleman.

 

 

Plenty of people here are predicting his selection was a mistake. They might not be writing him off but they're predicting that he'll bust.

 

Quick…name a 1st round draft prospect that “plenty of people” on the MB didn’t projected as a bust? 

[Sierra Foothills]

50 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Quick…name a 1st round draft prospect that “plenty of people” on the MB didn’t projected as a bust? 

 

It's a matter of degree.

 

The negativity surrounding this pick is higher than normal... perhaps even Josh Allen level.

 

[Magox]

1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Quick…name a 1st round draft prospect that “plenty of people” on the MB didn’t projected as a bust? 

 

Keon Coleman has been the most polarizing 1st round draft choice for Bills fans since Josh Allen.  Not to that degree but more so than any of the 1st round player selections since Allen.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

It's a matter of degree.

 

The negativity surrounding this pick is higher than normal... perhaps even Josh Allen level.

 

 

 

It's a matter of degree in your head.

 

A team that desperately needed a WR1 got the 8th WR off the board.

 

Expectations are lower than a typical first rounder?  (which he wasn't, btw)

 

 You don't say! 

[Ga boy]

On 6/17/2024 at 3:58 PM, Mikey152 said:

I liked him, too. But the Bills put a lot of time/work in with Franklin and passed quite a few times...clearly they had a reason to not draft him. Guess we will see if they were right.

It appears that the plan is ball control with a versatile use of RBs.  Use a lot of clock to keep the D fresh and to keep Mahomey on the sidelines.

[BADOLBILZ]

52 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Keon Coleman has been the most polarizing 1st round draft choice for Bills fans since Josh Allen.  Not to that degree but more so than any of the 1st round player selections since Allen.

 

 

Again.

 

NOT a first round pick.

 

8th WR off the board.

 

Some of you act like this is comparable to using the 7th pick in the draft on the 3rd QB selected(who was at times over the prior 12 months was considered the potential #1 overall pick).

 

Or that fans should believe that Coleman will put up WR1 numbers as a rookie.

 

Coleman has not been met with exceptional skepticism given how many WR were selected before him and where he ultimately came off the board.

 

People just expected the Bills to be more pro-active in addressing WR1.   Didn't happen.

 

Nothing suggests Coleman is ready for that,  particularly if being placed outside at X instead of how the Chiefs used similarly ranked prospect Rashee Rice as more of a big slot receiver last season.

 

 

[PBF81]

On 6/14/2024 at 8:42 AM, JohnNord said:

Ken Dorsey defenders want you to believe he wasn’t allowed run plays for Allen and Brady was.

 

Did Ken Dorsey have a lot of apologists & defenders?

 

Seems that he had a lot more let's wait and see types.  Seems that his biggest defenders when he took over are the same people defending Brady now for similar reasons, aka McD knows what he's doing, trust him.  That and because Allen wanted him.

 

Just sayin'. 

 

 

Edited June 20 by PBF81

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Again.

 

NOT a first round pick.

 

8th WR off the board.

 

Some of you act like this is comparable to using the 7th pick in the draft on the 3rd QB selected(who was at times over the prior 12 months was considered the potential #1 overall pick).

 

Or that fans should believe that Coleman will put up WR1 numbers as a rookie.

 

Coleman has not been met with exceptional skepticism given how many WR were selected before him and where he ultimately came off the board.

 

People just expected the Bills to be more pro-active in addressing WR1.   Didn't happen.

 

Nothing suggests Coleman is ready for that,  particularly if being placed outside at X instead of how the Chiefs used similarly ranked prospect Rashee Rice as more of a big slot receiver last season.

 

How do you think he'll perform for us? 

 

 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

It's a matter of degree.

 

The negativity surrounding this pick is higher than normal... perhaps even Josh Allen level.

Hopefully, he’s as much of a bust as Josh was.

[Beck Water]

On 6/17/2024 at 3:10 PM, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree we could use all 3.  But once the FO knew they had the cap/cash constraints they had to make choices.   With a limited budget putting $8M into the Crowder/McKenzie role seems excessive, especially in light of not having the Diggs/Davis roles secured.  That's why I wonder if things didn't go further south after they acquired C Samuel. 

 

I had thought for a long time that the plan was Samuel as the bridge for the rookie at outside while being the major backup for Shakir.  A versatile piece that fit in with a dual role (and potentially help fill part of the J Cook role if he got injured).  That's valuable. 

 

Having Samuel slated as a starting outside WR is not his strength.  Getting an expensive backup when you need two outside WRs though doesn't make as much sense.

 

I've seen this number before (maybe from you?) and let it go, but at this point it seems worth correcting.

 

The Bills are NOT putting $8M into the Crowder/McKenzie role in this cap-strapped year.  As always when something like an "$8M average" contract is announced, we have to look at the fine print.

 

Curtis Samuel's cap hit for the Bills this year is $3.4M: salary of $1.2M, amortized signing bonus of $1.725M. 

That doesn't seem excessive, given that he has actually proven on the football field that he can gain yards from the backfield and play outside, two things McKenzie could not.  Except for the year he was injured, Samuel has been a pretty reliable 650 yd/season 

 

Comparison (both played from 2017-2023; Samuel's total is depressed by including an IR'd year.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

How do you think he'll perform for us? 

 

 

 

Eventually I think he could be very good.

 

But everything points to him being a project.

 

20 years old,  doesn't get separation, doesn't catch contested passes well and has not even produced a single big season on the college level........but is also being asked to play the toughest WR position instead of being eased in at a spot where he can get free releases etc?

 

That is not the scouting report of a player who fans should realistically expect to excel early in their career but Beane is apparently f#cking sold that it's all good from the get-go.

 

I've used the Davante Adams comp.   Adams is a similar big, physical, coordinated and springy WR without exceptional speed but with exceptional hand talent.    

 

Davante Adams was much more polished and productive than Coleman at the college level.........but Adams was just a guy putting up very modest numbers his first couple seasons in the NFL.   That despite having an All Pro QB feeding him the ball.  And it really took him until year 5 to become one of the league's elite..

 

The odds that he becomes Adams-level are not great obviously,  but that's his ceiling IMO.   But if it doesn't happen for him quickly it complicates matters because the Bills will feel compelled to invest heavily in other solutions for WR1.