Brett Kollmann - Good analysis of the Bills based on watching tape not just following narratives

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Pry sure I had a couple bets w people who were convinced Dorsey wouldn't get work in the league again

Bets with me about HC interviews. Of which he got zero lol

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Bets with me about HC interviews. Of which he got zero lol

was it just this season

 

if so lmk how much i owe

[BADOLBILZ]

49 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No

 

That's what people who don't understand statistics would conclude

 

 

Yeah,  c'mon @FireChans.......... that "EPA hunting" is a new story created in hindsight by using what these guys said in the video.

 

In 2022 under Dorsey the Bills had gone much of the season throwing the ball further downfield.......aka "EPA hunting" because of Allen's UCL injury and excelled.

 

But that's not how they started it.   Their opening night game plan against the Rams was the greatest example of what Allen "can" do in a quick release Patriot's style version of the EPA.

 

In 2023 under Dorsey they still continued to push the ball downfield like they had post UCL injury in 2022..........and were largely successful.  

 

Except under Dorsey they were also trying to execute the McBeane organization directive to keep Allen in the pocket in 2023.

 

In 2022 there were no such limitations.

 

If Leonard Floyd doesn't get caught on the field and that missed FG counts against Denver...........Dorsey likely keeps the OC job.........they go back to using Allen like a battering ram down the stretch and likely have similar results.    The scoring under Dorsey and Brady was virtually identical.   

 

We will see what Brady is made of when he runs his own offense with this seemingly hand-picked ragamuffin cast of WR's.

 

 

Edited June 16 by BADOLBILZ

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah,  c'mon @FireChans.......... that "EPA hunting" is a new story created in hindsight by using what these guys said in the video.

 

In 2022 under Dorsey the Bills had gone much of the season throwing the ball further downfield.......aka "EPA hunting" because of Allen's UCL injury and excelled.

 

But that's not how they started it.   Their opening night game plan against the Rams was the greatest example of what Allen "can" do in a quick release Patriot's style version of the EPA.

 

In 2023 under Dorsey they still continued to push the ball downfield like they had post UCL injury in 2022..........and were largely successful.  

 

Except under Dorsey they were also trying to execute the McBeane organization directive to keep Allen in the pocket in 2023.

 

In 2022 there were no such limitations.

 

If Leonard Floyd doesn't get caught on the field and that missed FG counts against Denver...........Dorsey likely keeps the OC job.........they go back to using Allen like a battering ram down the stretch and likely have similar results.    The scoring under Dorsey and Brady was virtually identical.   

 

We will see what Brady is made of when he runs his own offense with this seemingly hand-picked ragamuffin cast of WR's.

 

 

I think the quick release intermediate to short stuff went away after Crowder got hurt, no?

[BADOLBILZ]

55 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think the quick release intermediate to short stuff went away after Crowder got hurt, no?

 

McKenzie won the job over Crowder anyway.

 

They mixed up the game plans early in the 2022 season to be opponent specific.  

 

The gradually increasingly problem since 2021 has always been that the Jimmy's and the Joe's can't consistently execute the X's and O's of an offense that doesn't need Josh Allen to run. 

 

Dorsey had largely won back some critics with his Tampa game plan in 2023........a move to more of a quick game and letting Allen run more.

 

Unfortunately after two weeks of 7 rush attempts they tried to pull a 2021 @Jax style "load management" game against Denver and got burned by some McBumbling about unwisely trying to replace defensive personnel with ST personnel at the end.

 

But Dorsey was already addressing the issue of the personnel not being good enough to push the ball downfield against the defense's they were seeing.

 

People forget that the main reason a coaching change was needed was because McDermott's defense was having big situational problems.    Bad calls on D cost them the Denver and @NE games and nearly cost them the Giants game(after Knox dropped a wide open 4th down conversion that would have won the game).

 

Enter McD with the need to play more "complementary" football.   Which translates to "I need offensive clock control so I don't make so many bad situational calls".

 

Dorsey got thrown under the bus.   Fine with me,  it was 6 of 1 vs half dozen of another IMO but they needed a kick in the @ss as a team and McD wasn't going to fire himself.   

[NickelCity]

Hope they're right about Bishop. I think he's got a tough job for a rookie, learning a totally new system requiring a way more coverage responsibilities imo. 

[JohnNord]

On 6/13/2024 at 4:04 PM, ndirish1978 said:

 

I keep reading or watching opinions on our OC based solely on things like EPA. Brett is IMO one of the best analysts out there because he actually watches a TON of tape and isn't just talking head parroting the general narrative that people out there just keep repeating. Gets into the nuts and bolts of the team around the 12 min mark. I really enjoyed this and wanted to share this with you all. 

Interesting to see these two speak so highly of Buffalo.  They are spot on about the Buffalo offense under Dorsey this season.  It was all deep shots or nothing which explains why so many drives stalled.    I thought that Brady did a much better job calling plays for the personnel on offense

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Interesting to see these two speak so highly of Buffalo.  They are spot on about the Buffalo offense under Dorsey this season.  It was all deep shots or nothing which explains why so many drives stalled.    I thought that Brady did a much better job calling plays for the personnel on offense

 

 

You won't find two non-Bills fans with more optimism about the Bills 2024 draft class........that is for sure.  

 

I'd be thrilled if the class panned out like they think it will.

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Dorsey got thrown under the bus.   Fine with me,  it was 6 of 1 vs half dozen of another IMO but they needed a kick in the @ss as a team and McD wasn't going to fire himself.   

I wouldn't care much except for the WR dilemma.  Now with no top tier WRs, I don't want that to become the plan going forward.  It makes me nervous about what happens with positive results.  I don't want the "dime a dozen WR" strategy.

[Magox]

Some people are writing off Keon Coleman before training camp. 🙃

[Coach Tuesday]

11 minutes ago, Magox said:

Some people are writing off Keon Coleman before training camp. 🙃

 

Zero people are doing that.

[Einstein's Dog]

21 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

We will see what Brady is made of when he runs his own offense with this seemingly hand-picked ragamuffin cast of WR's.

 

In your opinion who should I direct my disdain/frustration that the Bills best on-paper WR for 2024 is looking to be C Samuel.  That's disgraceful.  How do you assign blame:

 

1.  J Brady - you mention above you think this might be his hand-picked ragamuffin crew.  Ouch.  But seems any OC would want better material to work with, even if they have a preferred scheme to spread it out.

2.  Beane - no way around placing some blame here, really a matter of just how much.  An incredibly disappointing offseason IMO on this WR issue.

3.  McDermott - kind of a stretch IMO, but he certainly seems to be able to roll with the situation, and seems to favor complementary football.  And if you want out of J Brady you kind of have to get rid of McD too.

4.  Beane/McD/+Brady - joint decision.  If the Bills miss the playoffs they all should go.  Bring in B Johnson or B Belichick 

5.  Pegula - could be going cheap a bit.  May have directed the whole crew for a cap reset and in the process give them a mulligan for the season.   I don't think the front office has made a significant investment/pre-pay since we lost Kim's influence.  However, even with limited resources Beane must take some accountability in how it was spent/drafted.

6.  The plan may be to make-do this year and get reinforcements, in a decently priced WR, next year, prior to the new stadium opening.  I'm certainly hoping for this over the idea that having a test run for how a ragamuffin crew can compete decently - and thus not bother getting good WRs.

[Billy Claude]

42 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

In your opinion who should I direct my disdain/frustration that the Bills best on-paper WR for 2024 is looking to be C Samuel.  That's disgraceful.  How do you assign blame:

 

6.  The plan may be to make-do this year and get reinforcements, in a decently priced WR, next year, prior to the new stadium opening.  

 

I think the original plan was probably Diggs + Shakir + Samuel + rookie.  Assuming Diggs returns to form and add in Kincaid and Cook and you gave a pretty good set of passing options.

 

That of course got blown up when they decided the Diggs situation was untenable.  It would be interesting to know when that decision to get rid of Diggs was made.

 

So if you want to blame blame someone it has to go to Beane for giving Diggs the extension but they needed to do it to sign Von Miller.

 

 

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

8 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

I think the original plan was probably Diggs + Shakir + Samuel + rookie.  Assuming Diggs returns to form and add in Kincaid and Cook and you gave a pretty good set of passing options.

 

That of course got blown up when they decided the Diggs situation was untenable.  It would be interesting to know when that decision to get rid of Diggs was made.

 

So if you want to blame blame someone it has to go to Beane for giving Diggs the extension but they needed to do it to sign Von Miller.

 

I agree this lineup with the old-style Diggs would be extremely potent.  I wonder when the Diggs situation got so bad.  To me, it was when Diggs did the flag football at the pro bowl.  It was hard for me to process that Diggs wasn't hurt.  His actions/play the second half were unacceptable without a nagging injury.  It seemed like for the upcoming season it would be a choice between Diggs and J Brady, they weren't compatible. 

 

It seems like for the FO it was a little later.  Because without Diggs the C Samuel acquisition doesn't look as good of a match.  The need for an outside WR would have been a much higher priority IMO.

 

Blame for Beane can be more recent than Diggs/Von.  After trading Diggs, there should have been a better plan than this IMO.  The double dip would look a lot better to me.  We saw SF do it while having Deebo + Aiyuk already on board - in anticipation of not being able to keep someone when Brock gets paid.

[Billy Claude]

10 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree this lineup with the old-style Diggs would be extremely potent.  I wonder when the Diggs situation got so bad.  To me, it was when Diggs did the flag football at the pro bowl.  It was hard for me to process that Diggs wasn't hurt.  His actions/play the second half were unacceptable without a nagging injury.  It seemed like for the upcoming season it would be a choice between Diggs and J Brady, they weren't compatible. 

 

It seems like for the FO it was a little later.  Because without Diggs the C Samuel acquisition doesn't look as good of a match.  The need for an outside WR would have been a much higher priority IMO.

 

Blame for Beane can be more recent than Diggs/Von.  After trading Diggs, there should have been a better plan than this IMO.  The double dip would look a lot better to me.  We saw SF do it while having Deebo + Aiyuk already on board - in anticipation of not being able to keep someone when Brock gets paid.

 

It would be interesting to figure out what exactly happened but most likely it will never come out. 

 

Yes, a second WR drafted would have been nice but you don't have much of a plan if you are counting on a 4th or 5th round rookie wide receiver to contribute in a substantial manner.  Look at what Shakir did his rookie year, and I don't expect anything from Shorter who were the Bills' last two 4th and 5th round receivers.

 

 

[Beck Water]

23 hours ago, FireChans said:

I think the quick release intermediate to short stuff went away after Crowder got hurt, no?

 

Not really, or at best "hard to tell"

 

Crowder was injured in Game 4 (Ravens)

We were "bombs away" against the Steelers, but that was because it was working.

Next up, KC, which was a masterpiece of passing dissection.

The Packers game was weird.  In the 2nd half, Allen behaved as though it was his destiny to throw long bombs to covered receivers, and the ball did not appear to be going where he wanted it to go - I don't believe he was trying to dirt that Alexander pick.  He may have been concussed, or he may have gotten an initial hit on part of his throwing apparatus - there was a rumor he'd injured something

 

Then we have the Jets game, where he injured his UCL.

So you basically have a 3-ish game sample size, in one of which the short/intermediate game was very much alive. 
 

1 hour ago, Billy Claude said:

 

I think the original plan was probably Diggs + Shakir + Samuel + rookie.  Assuming Diggs returns to form and add in Kincaid and Cook and you gave a pretty good set of passing options.

 

That of course got blown up when they decided the Diggs situation was untenable.  It would be interesting to know when that decision to get rid of Diggs was made.

 

So if you want to blame blame someone it has to go to Beane for giving Diggs the extension but they needed to do it to sign Von Miller.

 

I agree with you that was probably the high-level plan.

 

I think the end of the season and playoffs may have shifted the balance some - pretty clear Josh and Diggs were NOT on the same page, Diggs was not productive in the playoff and for a team that keeps falling short in the playoffs "are you productive in the playoffs?" seems a reasonable metric.  I think @BarleyNY posted that there were rumors the Bills were shopping Diggs at the Sr Bowl/Combine, but not getting the return they wanted.

One of the pundits who is generally pretty well connected said that the Diggs trade was like "Make Me Move!" on Zillow - at that point, the Bills had decided they weren't going to get the return they wanted and they'd go through another season with him, but they'd given Diggs agent permission to seek a trade acceptable to the Bills, and the Texans came up with a 2nd rounder albeit next years.

 

Edited June 17 by Beck Water

[Whkfc]

On 6/13/2024 at 10:20 PM, Cray51 said:

consistent

 

[LABILLBACKER]

First of all a great rundown by Brett & EJ covering many topics. The EPA discussion was inciteful and to some degree accurate. Brady found a way to make a better and more efficient use of our ground game between the 20's. We found that less risky chunk plays allowed the offense to move field position. And we didn't need Diggs to accomplish this. There's alot to be said for praising the NE quick release style of offense as we saw opening night against the Rams 2 yrs ago.  

 

Our draft was above average and hopefully the defensive picks pan out. I didn't agree with their assessment that we still have a good pass rush or that Cook can catch the ball. I think Diggs & Davis will only be missed in volume, but not in clutch plays.  Hopefully this gagle of slot guys steps up considering we'll go the whole season without a true #1.  With Josh our floor is always around 10 wins. But because of this year's tougher schedule,  I have our ceiling at 11.  Coleman will be better than Worthy.

[Einstein's Dog]

54 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

It would be interesting to figure out what exactly happened but most likely it will never come out. 

 

Yes, a second WR drafted would have been nice but you don't have much of a plan if you are counting on a 4th or 5th round rookie wide receiver to contribute in a substantial manner.  Look at what Shakir did his rookie year, and I don't expect anything from Shorter who were the Bills' last two 4th and 5th round receivers.

 

Well the plan shouldn't just be for the 2024 season.   SF who doesn't have immediate need for a WR used a 1st and 4th- seems like they have a plan.  Remember when the Bills needed a CB and drafted Elam and a 6th- that was wise for the CB room that year (even though in my mind that was the year they should have been planning for the WR problem, going C Watkins or Pickens).  To me, if we had K Coleman and T Franklin the future would be more exciting.

 

Speaking of not having much of a plan, what is the thinking for 2025?  Right now the same major void at WR looms.  Maybe the plan is to wait several weeks in and see if they can get a WR from one of the losing franchises that need a QB, Raiders/Tenn/Seattle.  But that comes across as more of a desperation move than a plan.  

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree this lineup with the old-style Diggs would be extremely potent.  I wonder when the Diggs situation got so bad.  To me, it was when Diggs did the flag football at the pro bowl.  It was hard for me to process that Diggs wasn't hurt.  His actions/play the second half were unacceptable without a nagging injury.  It seemed like for the upcoming season it would be a choice between Diggs and J Brady, they weren't compatible. 

 

It seems like for the FO it was a little later.  Because without Diggs the C Samuel acquisition doesn't look as good of a match.  The need for an outside WR would have been a much higher priority IMO.

 

I don't think it's an "either/or" on Samuel vs. "outside WR".  They needed to replace Cole Beasley; Crowder/McKenzie were not adequate in 2022.  And, they knew Gabe Davis had priced himself out of what they were able/willing to pay, so they needed to replace him too.

 

We needed Samuel, and we needed someone with Davis skillset, while we had Diggs on the team.

 

Once we traded him, we needed all 3.

 

Time will tell