Lagoon Blues Posted June 14 Posted June 14 You all were right....pretty good listen. Thanks for sharing. Quote
Sierra Foothills Posted June 16 Posted June 16 On 6/14/2024 at 10:28 AM, Putin said: I wonder what mrags got to say about this he obviously watched more tape I actually know @mrags outside of this board... we talked the other day. He said that Kollman is so slow that in broadcasting school (Cal State-Fullerton) it took him 8 years to finish his 4 year degree. 1 Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted June 16 Posted June 16 On 6/13/2024 at 8:19 PM, BADOLBILZ said: Not bad analysis from the outside perspective........except they neglected to mention that the key to keeping the ball moving under Brady was using Josh Allen like a battering ram in the run game. Basically ran him 10x per game in the 9 games under Brady. ALL defense's have a hard time stopping athletic, running QB's. I am a Brady fan...........but it wasn't any schematic brilliance. It was an organizational willingness to put the hard miles on the franchise QB. If Dorsey was given the green light to run Josh Allen 160 times during the regular season the Bills would have either had the #1 seed or Allen finishes the regular season on IR. They've been putting the hard miles on the QB three straight years under three separate coordinators. They have always had that willingness. And for that willingness to exist through three separate coordinators, I would have to assume it is greenlighted by McDermott and Beane. 2021- Daboll 8.7 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (5-2 record) 2022- Dorsey 8.0 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (7-0 record) 2023- Brady 9.0 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (6-1 record) Allen's rushing attempts per game in the games prior to the final seven games of the season were: 2021- 6.1 2022- 7.6 2023- 4.8 2022 was Allen's most balanced year rushing the ball from start to finish. The second half of the 2023 season the Bills started to heavily turn to not just QB sneaks with Allen, but they incorporated the tush push. I think in part that is why he had a career high attempt average of 9 rushes per game down the stretch. But still not far off from his 8.7 and 8.0 in the two previous seasons. His yards per rush in '23 (4.4ypr) was way down though compared to '21 (6.9ypr) and '22 (5.1 ypr). Certainly some of that lower ypr in '23 can be contributed to an uptick in the tush push and short yardage plays the Bills ran with Allen when Brady took over. It seemed to be a new wrinkle in their game plan when Brady took over. Really nothing new with how Allen was utilized down the stretch. What was off was how little his legs were used to start the season compared to the two previous seasons. Was it the reason why the Bills had their worst record since Allen's rookie year (5-5) through 10 games. No. I wouldn't say it was the reason, but it certainly didn't help matters. I could easily see the Bills with at least one more win if Allen had a game where he really ran the ball with authority in the first half of the season. Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted June 16 Posted June 16 On 6/14/2024 at 6:12 AM, GunnerBill said: The last three seasons they have basically not run Josh before Thanskgiving. It is a consistent pattern that Josh's carries tick up the last 6 or 7 weeks as the games matter more. I think that can't be coincidence. This is correct, but this past season they really ran Josh even less than the previous two seasons. I'm of the opinion that Dorsey was in fact told to not run Josh so much. Josh was probably instructed the same. "Don't take off, just eat it for an incompletion". It will be very interesting to see what his rushing attempts look like to start the season this year. Do they try to double down on the "don't run Josh" gameplan. I think they would go with that gameplan for the entire season if they had the luxury to do so. But unfortunately, obtaining the one seed, not so much for the bye and home field, but more for the favorable divisional round match up possibilities is too valuable and it will pretty much always lead to the Bills having to play Josh at his best. Quote
GunnerBill Posted June 16 Posted June 16 1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: This is correct, but this past season they really ran Josh even less than the previous two seasons. I'm of the opinion that Dorsey was in fact told to not run Josh so much. Josh was probably instructed the same. "Don't take off, just eat it for an incompletion". It will be very interesting to see what his rushing attempts look like to start the season this year. Do they try to double down on the "don't run Josh" gameplan. I think they would go with that gameplan for the entire season if they had the luxury to do so. But unfortunately, obtaining the one seed, not so much for the bye and home field, but more for the favorable divisional round match up possibilities is too valuable and it will pretty much always lead to the Bills having to play Josh at his best. I am extremely confident in saying it will be the same. They will try and hold off running Josh until the rubber hits the road. 1 1 Quote
mrags Posted June 16 Posted June 16 On 6/14/2024 at 1:28 PM, Putin said: I wonder what mrags got to say about this he obviously watched more tape I wonder what mrags got to say about this he obviously watched more tape Anything said is worth saying twice. don’t need to watch tape when you know you we have a loser head coach though. 7 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said: I actually know @mrags outside of this board... we talked the other day. He said that Kollman is so slow that in broadcasting school (Cal State-Fullerton) it took him 8 years to finish his 4 year degree. He was going for his doctorate 1 Quote
NewEra Posted June 16 Posted June 16 5 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: They've been putting the hard miles on the QB three straight years under three separate coordinators. They have always had that willingness. And for that willingness to exist through three separate coordinators, I would have to assume it is greenlighted by McDermott and Beane. 2021- Daboll 8.7 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (5-2 record) 2022- Dorsey 8.0 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (7-0 record) 2023- Brady 9.0 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (6-1 record) Allen's rushing attempts per game in the games prior to the final seven games of the season were: 2021- 6.1 2022- 7.6 2023- 4.8 2022 was Allen's most balanced year rushing the ball from start to finish. The second half of the 2023 season the Bills started to heavily turn to not just QB sneaks with Allen, but they incorporated the tush push. I think in part that is why he had a career high attempt average of 9 rushes per game down the stretch. But still not far off from his 8.7 and 8.0 in the two previous seasons. His yards per rush in '23 (4.4ypr) was way down though compared to '21 (6.9ypr) and '22 (5.1 ypr). Certainly some of that lower ypr in '23 can be contributed to an uptick in the tush push and short yardage plays the Bills ran with Allen when Brady took over. It seemed to be a new wrinkle in their game plan when Brady took over. Really nothing new with how Allen was utilized down the stretch. What was off was how little his legs were used to start the season compared to the two previous seasons. Was it the reason why the Bills had their worst record since Allen's rookie year (5-5) through 10 games. No. I wouldn't say it was the reason, but it certainly didn't help matters. I could easily see the Bills with at least one more win if Allen had a game where he really ran the ball with authority in the first half of the season. Thanks for putting that info together. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted June 16 Posted June 16 6 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I am extremely confident in saying it will be the same. They will try and hold off running Josh until the rubber hits the road. It clearly wasn't the same in 2022. Allen ran to win all season. Contrast that to 2021 when they took a 6-3 loss in Jacksonville trying to "load manage" Allen. Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted June 16 Posted June 16 7 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I am extremely confident in saying it will be the same. They will try and hold off running Josh until the rubber hits the road. But will it be a repeat of 2023 where he has less than 5 rushes per game? Or will it be more similar to '21 and '22 where he is around 6-7.5 attempts per game. I do expect Josh to run more later in the season as well. Just don't know how much he will be held back to start the season. There is a chance they could say screw it, Josh running 8 times per game is our best path to the one seed. Also, will they continue to incorporate the tush push over giving the ball to the RB's? Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted June 16 Posted June 16 (edited) 9 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: They've been putting the hard miles on the QB three straight years under three separate coordinators. They have always had that willingness. And for that willingness to exist through three separate coordinators, I would have to assume it is greenlighted by McDermott and Beane. 2021- Daboll 8.7 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (5-2 record) 2022- Dorsey 8.0 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (7-0 record) 2023- Brady 9.0 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (6-1 record) Allen's rushing attempts per game in the games prior to the final seven games of the season were: 2021- 6.1 2022- 7.6 2023- 4.8 2022 was Allen's most balanced year rushing the ball from start to finish. The second half of the 2023 season the Bills started to heavily turn to not just QB sneaks with Allen, but they incorporated the tush push. I think in part that is why he had a career high attempt average of 9 rushes per game down the stretch. But still not far off from his 8.7 and 8.0 in the two previous seasons. His yards per rush in '23 (4.4ypr) was way down though compared to '21 (6.9ypr) and '22 (5.1 ypr). Certainly some of that lower ypr in '23 can be contributed to an uptick in the tush push and short yardage plays the Bills ran with Allen when Brady took over. It seemed to be a new wrinkle in their game plan when Brady took over. Really nothing new with how Allen was utilized down the stretch. What was off was how little his legs were used to start the season compared to the two previous seasons. Was it the reason why the Bills had their worst record since Allen's rookie year (5-5) through 10 games. No. I wouldn't say it was the reason, but it certainly didn't help matters. I could easily see the Bills with at least one more win if Allen had a game where he really ran the ball with authority in the first half of the season. I never said using Allen like a plowhorse down the stretch is "new". You are making an argument against a point I did not make. But it's CLEARLY not been the same plan every year. They were all-in on home field and a championship run in 2022 with the Von Miller signing and KC seemingly vulnerable so they didn't try to restrict Allen's running at all that year. Was not a point of emphasis. Like I said........his two highest rushing attempt games in 2022 were before the stretch. His rushing attempts per game were pretty consistent all season. 7.6 = 8. Entering both the 2021 and 2023 seasons they were actively discouraging Allen from running until those season's went off the rails. Had the strategy been more effective they would have stuck with it in both of those seasons. Who the OC was is irrelevant to that point. It was not effective because the weapons didn't allow it to work. Pretending like running him more "after Thanksgiving" is what they've intended going into every year is totally disingenuous. Just a lie. Things just haven't worked like they did in 2020 when he ran 5 times per game in the final 7 and BY FAR his 3 highest rushing attempt games were all prior to that(including 14% of his season total in the opener). And even in 2020 the volume was still concerning for a player with his arm talent and long term potential as a passer. That's why they tried to scale it back in 2021. The bottom line is that what he is doing now has never worked. If you are expecting 10 more years of Allen as a top QB then you are expecting him to be the all-time 1 of 1 of quarterbacks with athleticism. And by a lot. That would more than double the scale. The numbers that worked for Elway were 50-60 per season. Mahomes generally puts up 65. Allen is WAY beyond that usage. Edited June 16 by BADOLBILZ Quote
Doc Posted June 16 Posted June 16 The question, and maybe this has been answered earlier, is "how many of Josh's rushing attempts were scrambles versus designed runs"? 2 Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted June 16 Posted June 16 2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: I never said using Allen like a plowhorse down the stretch is "new". You are making an argument against a point I did not make. But it's CLEARLY not been the same plan every year. They were all-in on home field and a championship run in 2022 with the Von Miller signing and KC seemingly vulnerable so they didn't try to restrict Allen's running at all that year. Was not a point of emphasis. Like I said........his two highest rushing attempt games in 2022 were before the stretch. His rushing attempts per game were pretty consistent all season. 7.6 = 8. Entering both the 2021 and 2023 seasons they were actively discouraging Allen from running until those season's went off the rails. Had the strategy been more effective they would have stuck with it in both of those seasons. Who the OC was is irrelevant to that point. It was not effective because the weapons didn't allow it to work. Pretending like running him more "after Thanksgiving" is what they've intended going into every year is totally disingenuous. Just a lie. Things just haven't worked like they did in 2020 when he ran 5 times per game in the final 7 and BY FAR his 3 highest rushing attempt games were all prior to that(including 14% of his season total in the opener). And even in 2020 the volume was still concerning for a player with his arm talent and long term potential as a passer. That's why they tried to scale it back in 2021. The bottom line is that what he is doing now has never worked. If you are expecting 10 more years or Allen as a top QB then you are expecting him to be the all-time 1 of 1 of quarterbacks with athleticism. The numbers that worked for Elway were 50-60 per season. Mahomes generally puts up 65. Allen is WAY beyond that usage. I do realize you never made that argument. I think I mostly took exception of of your fear of Allen ending the season on IR because he ran the ball 9 times per game to end the season. Doesn't seem rationale to me when in '21 and '22 he ran the ball 8.7 and 8.0 times per game. Or the thought that having him run 9 times per game for a stretch was unsustainable or outrageous when we have already seen him do that in the two previous seasons for whatever reasons. Sure, if he runs the ball 9.0 times per game from start to finish then that may be a reason to worry. But we've never seen that. And as mentioned, I think a decent number of those 9.0 rushes per game were push tushes both around midfield and at the goal line. The Bills really went to the tush push when Brady took over or at least that is my memory of it. Haven't been able to find a data source on that. You can get hurt on any play but I do believe it is less likely for major injury on a short yardage run vs a normal designed Allen keeper or scramble. I'm at the point where I want the Bills to get the one seed. As mentioned again, not so much for the bye week and homefield advantage, but for the more favorable divisional round match up. So instead of playing KC or Cincy in the second round they play that year's Jacksonville or Houston. It's tough to make it to the Super Bowl. It's even tougher when every single post season you have to play both of the top three teams in the conference just to make it. So I am of the mindset that the most clear path to the one seed is not holding Allen back at all. You are of the mindset that Allen needs better weapons in the passing game. That is fine. I don't take issue with that. But I say give him the better weapons AND let him run. That's our best shot at the 1 seed. 1 Quote
JESSEFEFFER Posted June 16 Posted June 16 Zone read option runs had to go. Josh makes a misread against an unblocked edge defender and he is flirting with disaster. I never want to see a Joey Bosa type defender cork screw him off his feet and hip drop him like a rodeo event ever again. QB power runs, draws, and sneaks seem way less risky. Scrambles where he can see the field well, use the sideline or time the slide correctly are much safer. Josh just needs to better choose how the play ends. 15 minutes ago, Doc said: The question, and maybe this has been answered earlier, is "how many of Josh's rushing attempts were scrambles versus designed runs"? 2 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted June 16 Posted June 16 9 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: I do realize you never made that argument. I think I mostly took exception of of your fear of Allen ending the season on IR because he ran the ball 9 times per game to end the season. Doesn't seem rationale to me when in '21 and '22 he ran the ball 8.7 and 8.0 times per game. Or the thought that having him run 9 times per game for a stretch was unsustainable or outrageous when we have already seen him do that in the two previous seasons for whatever reasons. Sure, if he runs the ball 9.0 times per game from start to finish then that may be a reason to worry. But we've never seen that. And as mentioned, I think a decent number of those 9.0 rushes per game were push tushes both around midfield and at the goal line. The Bills really went to the tush push when Brady took over or at least that is my memory of it. Haven't been able to find a data source on that. You can get hurt on any play but I do believe it is less likely for major injury on a short yardage run vs a normal designed Allen keeper or scramble. I'm at the point where I want the Bills to get the one seed. As mentioned again, not so much for the bye week and homefield advantage, but for the more favorable divisional round match up. So instead of playing KC or Cincy in the second round they play that year's Jacksonville or Houston. It's tough to make it to the Super Bowl. It's even tougher when every single post season you have to play both of the top three teams in the conference just to make it. So I am of the mindset that the most clear path to the one seed is not holding Allen back at all. You are of the mindset that Allen needs better weapons in the passing game. That is fine. I don't take issue with that. But I say give him the better weapons AND let him run. That's our best shot at the 1 seed. I've made my points clear. You guys can try to straw man your way to other conclusions that avoid the obvious. It doesn't have any bearing on the likely outcome of repeatedly doing something that's proven to be unsustainable in the NFL. Quote
FireChans Posted June 16 Posted June 16 On 6/13/2024 at 8:18 PM, GoBills808 said: basically said they were farming EPA under Dorsey by staying ahead of schedule due to explosive plays in traditionally tough down/distance situations and that it flipped under Brady due to willingness to run the ball on early downs between the 30s...more (slightly) scoring lower EPA Dorsey was the EPA gawd/fraud confirmed? Say it ain’t so. Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted June 16 Posted June 16 3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: I've made my points clear. You guys can try to straw man your way to other conclusions that avoid the obvious. It doesn't have any bearing on the likely outcome of repeatedly doing something that's proven to be unsustainable in the NFL. How are we going to consistently top KC in regular season standings and post season play if we don't let Allen be who he is all season start to finish? Mahomes is the better passer. That is clear. Allen is the better runner. That is clear as well. If we don't let Allen use his natural abilities to his fullest but the other guy in KC is using is natural abilities to his fullest how can we ever expect to come out on top? We are going to handicap Allen and expect to put the best product on the field and compete with KC? What is straw man about any of that? Seem like pretty straight forward logic. I know your points an agree with them except for the though of not using Allen at his fullest abilities. Give me the weapons and give me Allen's legs and win the Super Bowl. Quote
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted June 16 Posted June 16 On 6/13/2024 at 11:19 PM, BADOLBILZ said: Not bad analysis from the outside perspective........except they neglected to mention that the key to keeping the ball moving under Brady was using Josh Allen like a battering ram in the run game. Basically ran him 10x per game in the 9 games under Brady. ALL defense's have a hard time stopping athletic, running QB's. I am a Brady fan...........but it wasn't any schematic brilliance. It was an organizational willingness to put the hard miles on the franchise QB. If Dorsey was given the green light to run Josh Allen 160 times during the regular season the Bills would have either had the #1 seed or Allen finishes the regular season on IR. This is true. 15 rush TDs for a QB is insane. As a fantasy football nerd I love it, but Brady needs to tone it down and put that stress on Cook & newly acquired Ray Davis. 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted June 16 Posted June 16 30 minutes ago, FireChans said: Dorsey was the EPA gawd/fraud confirmed? Say it ain’t so. No That's what people who don't understand statistics would conclude Quote
FireChans Posted June 16 Posted June 16 20 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: No That's what people who don't understand statistics would conclude Idk man, sounds like he was an unethical EPA merchant, and that’s why he’s got a new job getting Stefanski’s coffee. Quote
GoBills808 Posted June 16 Posted June 16 3 minutes ago, FireChans said: Idk man, sounds like he was an unethical EPA merchant, and that’s why he’s got a new job getting Stefanski’s coffee. Pry sure I had a couple bets w people who were convinced Dorsey wouldn't get work in the league again Quote
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