Brett Kollmann - Good analysis of the Bills based on watching tape not just following narratives

[Watching since 1964]

Coach Aaron Kromer’s daughter used to work there. That’s how Marino got sit down time with her Dad.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 14 by Watching since 1964

[Doc]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Not bad analysis from the outside perspective........except they neglected to mention that the key to keeping the ball moving under Brady was using Josh Allen like a battering ram in the run game.

 

Basically ran him 10x per game in the 9 games under Brady.  

 

ALL defense's have a hard time stopping athletic, running QB's.    

 

I am a Brady fan...........but it wasn't any schematic brilliance.  

 

It was an organizational willingness to put the hard miles on the franchise QB.

 

If Dorsey was given the green light to run Josh Allen 160 times during the regular season the Bills would have either had the #1 seed or Allen finishes the regular season on IR. 

 

Was Dorsey not allowed to run Josh or was that his decision?

[Niagara Dude]

16 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

I keep reading or watching opinions on our OC based solely on things like EPA. Brett is IMO one of the best analysts out there because he actually watches a TON of tape and isn't just talking head parroting the general narrative that people out there just keep repeating. Gets into the nuts and bolts of the team around the 12 min mark. I really enjoyed this and wanted to share this with you all. 

I'm very interested to see what this group of receivers do. I like the depth that Beane has provided at that position after trading Diggs who despite having great regular seasons never performed anywhere near the same level at playoff time

[JohnNord]

31 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Was Dorsey not allowed to run Josh or was that his decision?

No one really knows.  Beane, McDermott and Allen all spoke of taking less hits in training camp last year.

 

Ken Dorsey defenders want you to believe he wasn’t allowed run plays for Allen and Brady was.

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

No one really knows.  Beane, McDermott and Allen all spoke of taking less hits in training camp last year.

 

Ken Dorsey defenders want you to believe he wasn’t allowed run plays for Allen and Brady was.

 

I never heard that Dorsey wasn't allowed to run Josh.  I just assumed he didn't want to do it.

 

And that provides context for drafting another RB this year.  Give those carries for Josh to a RB.

[Rockinon]

2 hours ago, NI Bills Fan said:

Thanks, a good listen.

 

Interesting that he had Edefuan Ulofoshio as his LB3 in the draft, thinks we got a steal there.

Also said the Edefuan was the best "zone" LB in the entire draft.

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I never heard that Dorsey wasn't allowed to run Josh.  I just assumed he didn't want to do it.

 

And that provides context for drafting another RB this year.  Give those carries for Josh to a RB.

 

The last three seasons they have basically not run Josh before Thanskgiving. It is a consistent pattern that Josh's carries tick up the last 6 or 7 weeks as the games matter more. I think that can't be coincidence. 

[HaldimandBills]

Listened to the entire podcast and I appreciate what they said. I firmly believe Dorsey was let go because his offenses were too boom or bust relying on big plays down the field. What will never know is if Josh Allen ignored the underneath routes in Dorsey offense or if he was coached not to go there. 

 

What I liked under Brady's offense was that we consistently won the time of possession. Our defense was constantly a MASH unit near the end of the season and I think the high flying act on offense of either scoring quick or going 4 and out contributed to that. McDermott was fed up with the defense running onto the field every 3 minutes.

 

I enjoyed that Josh Allen was going to Cook and Kincaid more and utilizing the middle of the field. It puts so much more pressure on defenses. The Chiefs and Steelers playoff games showed us that teams are still going to play the Bills with 2 high safeties.

 

If Allen perfects the soft touch passes we will be marching the ball down the field. Bills might finally have a slider to go with their fastball and curve ball. Bills always had Allen's running ability and deep pass but if we can add a consistent run game and intermediate pass game... LOOK OUT. I think the big receiver change the Bills have gone to is entirely about easier targets in the redzone and less about what happens between the 20s. Let Cook, Shakir, Kincaid, and Samuel move the ball between the 20s.

 

my only gripe is we need to stop running Allen as much as we do. Brady needs to learn how to weaponize the fear of Allen running the ball into opposing defenses while actually not doing it as much. I can't wait to see this offense vs. the Jets. They have been the masters of shutting down the Boom or Bust Buffalo Bills. 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

The last three seasons they have basically not run Josh before Thanskgiving. It is a consistent pattern that Josh's carries tick up the last 6 or 7 weeks as the games matter more. I think that can't be coincidence. 

 

Good catch.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, HaldimandBills said:

Listened to the entire podcast and I appreciate what they said. I firmly believe Dorsey was let go because his offenses were too boom or bust relying on big plays down the field. What will never know is if Josh Allen ignored the underneath routes in Dorsey offense or if he was coached not to go there. 

 

What I liked under Brady's offense was that we consistently won the time of possession. Our defense was constantly a MASH unit near the end of the season and I think the high flying act on offense of either scoring quick or going 4 and out contributed to that. McDermott was fed up with the defense running onto the field every 3 minutes.

 

I enjoyed that Josh Allen was going to Cook and Kincaid more and utilizing the middle of the field. It puts so much more pressure on defenses. The Chiefs and Steelers playoff games showed us that teams are still going to play the Bills with 2 high safeties.

 

If Allen perfects the soft touch passes we will be marching the ball down the field. Bills might finally have a slider to go with their fastball and curve ball. Bills always had Allen's running ability and deep pass but if we can add a consistent run game and intermediate pass game... LOOK OUT. I think the big receiver change the Bills have gone to is entirely about easier targets in the redzone and less about what happens between the 20s. Let Cook, Shakir, Kincaid, and Samuel move the ball between the 20s.

 

my only gripe is we need to stop running Allen as much as we do. Brady needs to learn how to weaponize the fear of Allen running the ball into opposing defenses while actually not doing it as much. I can't wait to see this offense vs. the Jets. They have been the masters of shutting down the Boom or Bust Buffalo Bills. 

 

I agree.  I want Josh to play into his 40s.  But his running abilities are unique and a real asset.  So I think Brady needs to be strategic about it.  Do it enough to get it on tape for DCs to worry about.  And then only in big and/or close games.  

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Was Dorsey not allowed to run Josh or was that his decision?

 

 

Yes, there was an organizational directive to run Josh less last season.   It went out the window when desperation set in.   Same as in 2021.  

2 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I agree.  I want Josh to play into his 40s.  But his running abilities are unique and a real asset.  So I think Brady needs to be strategic about it.  Do it enough to get it on tape for DCs to worry about.  And then only in big and/or close games.  

 

 

That's what they say they want to do every year.   But then don't have that option because their passing game weapons have gotten consistently weaker.  

[hondo in seattle]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes, there was an organizational directive to run Josh less last season.   It went out the window when desperation set in.   Same as in 2021.  

 

 

That's what they say they want to do every year.   But then don't have that option because their passing game weapons have gotten consistently weaker.  

 

Did the passing game weapons get weaker?  Or did the scheme and playcalling get weaker?  Or both?  

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The last three seasons they have basically not run Josh before Thanskgiving. It is a consistent pattern that Josh's carries tick up the last 6 or 7 weeks as the games matter more. I think that can't be coincidence. 

 

 

I wouldn't say they didn't run Allen until Thanksgiving in 2022.    It's not that simple at all, IMO.

 

His two highest carry amounts in that 2022 season were before TG and he averaged over 6 rushes per game thru the Thanksgiving game in Detroit.   That average went up to 9 per game in the final 6 games but the increases were far more dramatic in 2021 and 2023.    It was homefield or bust that season.

 

They were actively asking Allen to not run the ball in those 2021 and 2023 seasons.    It was a big topic for the coaching staff.  But they had to pull the fire alarm after they played themselves out of playoff positioning.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Did the passing game weapons get weaker?  Or did the scheme and playcalling get weaker?  Or both?  

 

 

Weapons.   No question.    They've had to change their style because of it.    Defense's broadly adapting to a bend but don't break philosophy has contributed as well because that cushion exposed Gabe Davis' lack of quality traits.   But teams like SF, Houston and Miami continued to prove that you can still push the ball downfield if you have the weapons.

[TBBills Fan]

11 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Usually when I watch/listen to guys who cover the entire NFL, I learn nothing.  Most of those guys are jacks of all trades, masters of none.  I learn more from you guys than the national talking heads.

 

But these guys were very good.  

You are my Padwan, young Hondo

[SCBills]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

No one really knows.  Beane, McDermott and Allen all spoke of taking less hits in training camp last year.

 

Ken Dorsey defenders want you to believe he wasn’t allowed run plays for Allen and Brady was.

This is where I can’t take some of these breakdowns of Dorsey vs Brady seriously though. 
 

When Brady took over, it was go time.  We dug ourselves a hole and had to win.  
 

Josh Allen unleashed is the best player in the NFL.  Someone wants to say Mahomes or McCaffrey, whatever, go argue with a wall.  
 

But that’s not sustainable over a long season.  We shouldn’t have Josh Allen running all over Arizona on Week 1. 
 

What was notable was Allen’s weird low positive vibes under Dorsey and the fact he seemed like he wouldn’t run … even when the scramble was wide open.  He has to do that.  Every mobile QB does that, every game. 
 

So, what does Brady’s Offense look like with a full offseason of install, along with a healthy 2-TE set and an overhaul at WR?

 

No clue, and I’m not sure last year really provides much a clue aside from the fact he will run the ball against light boxes until you prove you can stop it. 

[BuffaloBill]

20 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’ll look forward to it when I have a bit more time. 

 

 

Watched about 1/3 - I do not have patience to sit there and just listen to guys talk football and spew various stats. The gist was pretty simple - improved with Brady as OC - ran the ball more and effectively - stoped killing themselves in no man’s land just across midfield but before sure FG range.

 

The one point in the analysis that scares me going forward is Bass has to be better at FG’s.

[Einstein's Dog]

34 minutes ago, SCBills said:

This is where I can’t take some of these breakdowns of Dorsey vs Brady seriously though. 
 

When Brady took over, it was go time.  We dug ourselves a hole and had to win.  
 

Josh Allen unleashed is the best player in the NFL.  Someone wants to say Mahomes or McCaffrey, whatever, go argue with a wall.  
 

But that’s not sustainable over a long season.  We shouldn’t have Josh Allen running all over Arizona on Week 1. 
 

What was notable was Allen’s weird low positive vibes under Dorsey and the fact he seemed like he wouldn’t run … even when the scramble was wide open.  He has to do that.  Every mobile QB does that, every game. 
 

So, what does Brady’s Offense look like with a full offseason of install, along with a healthy 2-TE set and an overhaul at WR?

 

No clue, and I’m not sure last year really provides much a clue aside from the fact he will run the ball against light boxes until you prove you can stop it. 

I agree with most of what you said.  The only thing I might view differently is we have a pretty good idea of the kind of offense Brady will run - similar to the end of last year,.

 

It's not so much an overhaul at WR as an on-paper downgrade.  Last year it looked like the personnel at outside WR derailed Dorsey's offense.  Seems unlikely J Brady would reinstitute that type of offense with people less suited for it (MVS/Claypool vs Diggs/Davis).

 

The real question to me is how much do they have Josh run.  If Josh is put on restriction again.

[Putin]

13 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Good watch and here are more notes. These guys are not Bills homers (say Josh is top 5, something many here will hate) but they can still win it all and are still around the same overall talent level (thought the chances to go all the way have dropped a bit this year).

- McD "coached his a$$ off" in light of the injuries and to get out of the hole in the first half (allude to McD or coaching being partly responsible for that hole.

- Samuel and Claypool ain't the X, so it has to be Coleman almost by default (thought they thought Coleman was best suited as a big slot and the team has a "million' slot guys)

- impressed with Cook and thought he was way more versatile than in college; he developed in the back half of the year (running between the tackles, etc)

- championship window: the Bills still have good players and are a playoff team and are still in their "championship window"  — their chances are not as high but they're still in it

- the Bills still have the best QB in division and top-5 in league (sharpen your pitchforks!)

- all the roster losses (biggest, obviously, are safeties and Diggs but also Morse) are a lot but it will be all right

- letting Steph and Gabe go is a declaration of their new identify that is predicated on more running and efficiency and good D

- The Bills are a year behind the cycle KC is in (e.g. letting Hill go, etc.)

- a half dozen games at most you let your "alien" QB do it all — but not 12 times a game

- MVS is just a depth signing in the regular season but he's there for January:S best hands and clutch plays in playoffs

- draft top to bottom was strong

- Coleman is not a traditional X but he might end up being that

- Love the Bishop pick, might be fave pick in draft: great at pass D and blitzing off the edge; perfect fit for a hard Bills safety role

- Dewayne Carter the year before was a "top 20 lock" but then had a down year; was a wrecker the year before

- Soloman is a "fireball off the edge"

- love the value of LB Ulofoshio; just fell because of injury

- they had to hit this draft and really did

- even with all the losses their additions "even out' the overall team talent; they didn't go backwards

- still the fave to win AFCE

- still have a chance (thought lesser) to go all the way

- will find out quick what the team is with all this youth

- ceiling: 12 wins with a tough schedule, potentially first seed (other guy said ceiling is 13 wins)

- more realistic is 10-11 with a "ridiculous" schedule

- if everything goes wrong but Josh plays the year, floor is 9 wins

- odds not as good as KC and Baltimore but "it's JA, a good defense and a D coordinator who gets it"

- team will be underrated

- the trade to KC that let them get Worthy "doesn't matter" and Brett thinks the Bills got the better WR

I wonder what  mrags  got to say about this he obviously watched more tape 

13 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Good watch and here are more notes. These guys are not Bills homers (say Josh is top 5, something many here will hate) but they can still win it all and are still around the same overall talent level (thought the chances to go all the way have dropped a bit this year).

- McD "coached his a$$ off" in light of the injuries and to get out of the hole in the first half (allude to McD or coaching being partly responsible for that hole.

- Samuel and Claypool ain't the X, so it has to be Coleman almost by default (thought they thought Coleman was best suited as a big slot and the team has a "million' slot guys)

- impressed with Cook and thought he was way more versatile than in college; he developed in the back half of the year (running between the tackles, etc)

- championship window: the Bills still have good players and are a playoff team and are still in their "championship window"  — their chances are not as high but they're still in it

- the Bills still have the best QB in division and top-5 in league (sharpen your pitchforks!)

- all the roster losses (biggest, obviously, are safeties and Diggs but also Morse) are a lot but it will be all right

- letting Steph and Gabe go is a declaration of their new identify that is predicated on more running and efficiency and good D

- The Bills are a year behind the cycle KC is in (e.g. letting Hill go, etc.)

- a half dozen games at most you let your "alien" QB do it all — but not 12 times a game

- MVS is just a depth signing in the regular season but he's there for January:S best hands and clutch plays in playoffs

- draft top to bottom was strong

- Coleman is not a traditional X but he might end up being that

- Love the Bishop pick, might be fave pick in draft: great at pass D and blitzing off the edge; perfect fit for a hard Bills safety role

- Dewayne Carter the year before was a "top 20 lock" but then had a down year; was a wrecker the year before

- Soloman is a "fireball off the edge"

- love the value of LB Ulofoshio; just fell because of injury

- they had to hit this draft and really did

- even with all the losses their additions "even out' the overall team talent; they didn't go backwards

- still the fave to win AFCE

- still have a chance (thought lesser) to go all the way

- will find out quick what the team is with all this youth

- ceiling: 12 wins with a tough schedule, potentially first seed (other guy said ceiling is 13 wins)

- more realistic is 10-11 with a "ridiculous" schedule

- if everything goes wrong but Josh plays the year, floor is 9 wins

- odds not as good as KC and Baltimore but "it's JA, a good defense and a D coordinator who gets it"

- team will be underrated

- the trade to KC that let them get Worthy "doesn't matter" and Brett thinks the Bills got the better WR

I wonder what  mrags  got to say about this he obviously watched more tape 

[Coffeesforclosers]

Keep listening to the other podcasts on the rest of the AFC East. They're just as good.

 

For example, the basic concept to defend Miami is bracket coverage on the motion receiver, press-man on everyone else.