Brett Kollmann - Good analysis of the Bills based on watching tape not just following narratives

[ndirish1978]

 

I keep reading or watching opinions on our OC based solely on things like EPA. Brett is IMO one of the best analysts out there because he actually watches a TON of tape and isn't just talking head parroting the general narrative that people out there just keep repeating. Gets into the nuts and bolts of the team around the 12 min mark. I really enjoyed this and wanted to share this with you all. 

[Augie]

Umm, are we doomed? 

 

@House wants to know. 

[ndirish1978]

14 minutes ago, Augie said:

Umm, are we doomed? 

 

@House wants to know. 

 

He likes the Bills and the moves for the offseason. Good discussion on the difference in the offense between our OCs. Good discussion on the transformation of the WR room and the reasoning behind it. 

[Augie]

1 minute ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

He likes the Bills and the moves for the offseason. Good discussion on the difference in the offense between our OCs. Good discussion on the transformation of the WR room and the reasoning behind it. 

 

I’ll look forward to it when I have a bit more time. 

[Cray51]

His explanation of what changed pre to post Dorsey from 12:00-19:00 was amazing.  Data forward, clear, cause/effect.  Really impressive

[JerseyBills]

This was phenomenal.  

They're talking with incredible accuracy like their die hard fans. 

Don't think I've ever been as impressed with a non Bills fan video..

 

Only thing they didn't mention was the terrible cap space and how Beane moved like a wizard through fa and draft

9 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

His explanation of what changed pre to post Dorsey from 12:00-19:00 was amazing.  Data forward, clear, cause/effect.  Really impressive

ya that was extremely impressive/factual 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

This was phenomenal.  

They're talking with incredible accuracy like their die hard fans. 

Don't think I've ever been as impressed with a non Bills fan video..

 

Only thing they didn't mention was the terrible cap space and how Beane moved like a wizard through fa and draft

ya that was extremely impressive/factual 

You should def watch their podcasts if you have the time-  very informative, probably my favorite football podcasters out there

[julian]

This is one of the best Bills podcasts I’ve seen in some time, no hyperbole or fake opposite opinion 1vs1 for theatrics.

 

 Just 2 dudes who know ball and spitting facts.

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, Cray51 said:

His explanation of what changed pre to post Dorsey from 12:00-19:00 was amazing.  Data forward, clear, cause/effect.  Really impressive

this is your moment to summarize it 

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

this is your moment to summarize it 

basically said they were farming EPA under Dorsey by staying ahead of schedule due to explosive plays in traditionally tough down/distance situations

 

and that it flipped under Brady due to willingness to run the ball on early downs between the 30s...more (slightly) scoring lower EPA

[Cray51]

15 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

this is your moment to summarize it 

Bills under Dorsey were very “chunk play” reliant.  They would try to flip the field via big plays, taking shots, and would be inconsistent in result.  They were EPA darlings, as they would have these big plays and punted/took field goals very infrequently.  It put a ton of stress on the defense and Allen to create everything.  And when the offense wasn’t clicking, it REALLY wasn’t clicking and you saw that through three and outs and turnovers.

 

under Brady, they built a more consistent offensive approach.  They would run on first, run on second, run on third, and if it worked, they would do it again… and again…. It took stress off Allen and the defense.  They would be ok taking short routes, their air yards on passes went down.

 

they went from a ton of play action under center to I believe a top 5 run team under center.  That shift built a better overall offense, and the success followed.

[Nephilim17]

32 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

this is your moment to summarize it 

On the middle of the field woes with Dorsey: "They reason they kept stalling out there, they got way overly aggressive in that area of the field. They kept chucking the ball, and chucking the ball and chucking the ball. And when they made the switch at OC, the switch wasn't that drastic in terms of scheme; it was drastic in terms of play selection. And I mean run/pass play selection." This resulted in the EPA going down but the efficiency and scoring going up in the back half of the year.

There's a summary of a bit. Just started watching...

[BADOLBILZ]

46 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

Bills under Dorsey were very “chunk play” reliant.  They would try to flip the field via big plays, taking shots, and would be inconsistent in result.  They were EPA darlings, as they would have these big plays and punted/took field goals very infrequently.  It put a ton of stress on the defense and Allen to create everything.  And when the offense wasn’t clicking, it REALLY wasn’t clicking and you saw that through three and outs and turnovers.

 

under Brady, they built a more consistent offensive approach.  They would run on first, run on second, run on third, and if it worked, they would do it again… and again…. It took stress off Allen and the defense.  They would be ok taking short routes, their air yards on passes went down.

 

they went from a ton of play action under center to I believe a top 5 run team under center.  That shift built a better overall offense, and the success followed.

 

 

Not bad analysis from the outside perspective........except they neglected to mention that the key to keeping the ball moving under Brady was using Josh Allen like a battering ram in the run game.

 

Basically ran him 10x per game in the 9 games under Brady.  

 

ALL defense's have a hard time stopping athletic, running QB's.    

 

I am a Brady fan...........but it wasn't any schematic brilliance.  

 

It was an organizational willingness to put the hard miles on the franchise QB.

 

If Dorsey was given the green light to run Josh Allen 160 times during the regular season the Bills would have either had the #1 seed or Allen finishes the regular season on IR. 

 

[julian]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Not bad analysis from the outside perspective........except they neglected to mention that the key to keeping the ball moving under Brady was using Josh Allen like a battering ram in the run game.

 

Basically ran him 10x per game in the 9 games under Brady.  

 

ALL defense's have a hard time stopping athletic, running QB's.    

 

I am a Brady fan...........but it wasn't any schematic brilliance.  

 

It was an organizational willingness to put the hard miles on the franchise QB.

 

If Dorsey was given the green light to run Josh Allen 160 times during the regular season the Bills would have either had the #1 seed or Allen finishes the regular season on IR. 

 

The Ironman ain’t going on no stinking IR so #1 seed it is.

[Nephilim17]

Good watch and here are more notes. These guys are not Bills homers (say Josh is top 5, something many here will hate) but they can still win it all and are still around the same overall talent level (thought the chances to go all the way have dropped a bit this year).

- McD "coached his a$$ off" in light of the injuries and to get out of the hole in the first half (allude to McD or coaching being partly responsible for that hole.

- Samuel and Claypool ain't the X, so it has to be Coleman almost by default (thought they thought Coleman was best suited as a big slot and the team has a "million' slot guys)

- impressed with Cook and thought he was way more versatile than in college; he developed in the back half of the year (running between the tackles, etc)

- championship window: the Bills still have good players and are a playoff team and are still in their "championship window"  — their chances are not as high but they're still in it

- the Bills still have the best QB in division and top-5 in league (sharpen your pitchforks!)

- all the roster losses (biggest, obviously, are safeties and Diggs but also Morse) are a lot but it will be all right

- letting Steph and Gabe go is a declaration of their new identify that is predicated on more running and efficiency and good D

- The Bills are a year behind the cycle KC is in (e.g. letting Hill go, etc.)

- a half dozen games at most you let your "alien" QB do it all — but not 12 times a game

- MVS is just a depth signing in the regular season but he's there for January:S best hands and clutch plays in playoffs

- draft top to bottom was strong

- Coleman is not a traditional X but he might end up being that

- Love the Bishop pick, might be fave pick in draft: great at pass D and blitzing off the edge; perfect fit for a hard Bills safety role

- Dewayne Carter the year before was a "top 20 lock" but then had a down year; was a wrecker the year before

- Soloman is a "fireball off the edge"

- love the value of LB Ulofoshio; just fell because of injury

- they had to hit this draft and really did

- even with all the losses their additions "even out' the overall team talent; they didn't go backwards

- still the fave to win AFCE

- still have a chance (thought lesser) to go all the way

- will find out quick what the team is with all this youth

- ceiling: 12 wins with a tough schedule, potentially first seed (other guy said ceiling is 13 wins)

- more realistic is 10-11 with a "ridiculous" schedule

- if everything goes wrong but Josh plays the year, floor is 9 wins

- odds not as good as KC and Baltimore but "it's JA, a good defense and a D coordinator who gets it"

- team will be underrated

- the trade to KC that let them get Worthy "doesn't matter" and Brett thinks the Bills got the better WR

[hondo in seattle]

Usually when I watch/listen to guys who cover the entire NFL, I learn nothing.  Most of those guys are jacks of all trades, masters of none.  I learn more from you guys than the national talking heads.

 

But these guys were very good.  

[GoBills808]

8 hours ago, Cray51 said:

His explanation of what changed pre to post Dorsey from 12:00-19:00 was amazing.  Data forward, clear, cause/effect.  Really impressive

Yes it's a tidy story but I'm not entirely sure it's true

 

they chalk up the early EPA returns under Dorsey by saying 'well the Bills are anomalous' and then similarly fail to account for the decline in EPA under Brady which corresponded w more wins. It's not meant to be entirely predictive but the difference in actual scoring between the two offenses was <1 ppg...is that enough to account for such a dramatic difference in win/loss%? I would say almost certainly not

 

I maintained then and still do that the metrics supported the idea that the offense would find itself through the midseason lull v Giants-Broncos (roughly)...these guys seem content to chalk up the difference in it's entirety to playcalling differences in certain key areas between the respective OCs and I think that's too convenient

[ndirish1978]

Glad this was a positive vid. I've been watching Kollmann's draft stuff for a bit and he's really good. I enjoyed their discussion about us trading back with KC and laughing that it didn't matter at all. The EPA discussion about the differences between Brady and Dorsey was probably the best thing in the video, I didn't understand how much EPA is affected by chunk plays from worse field position. Watching this makes it even more glaring how little "pro" sports commentators actually watch tape because they took several narratives that I kept hearing out there and pretty much just explained why they are wrong and how dumb it is to buy into them. Very encouraging video and presented by a Texans fan and a Bears fan so you can't blame positive things on homerism. 

 

If you're looking for Bills stuffs on youtube you can't go wrong with Bootleg Sports, Cover 1 Buffalo Podcast (Thompsett is the best cap guy on the Bills, Prohaska is pretty decent at film study), LockedOn Bills (Joe Marino founded the draftnetwork and then bounced, you may remember they used to be a decent website and went downhill, that's because he and another founder left to start the LockedOn Network).

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes it's a tidy story but I'm not entirely sure it's true

 

they chalk up the early EPA returns under Dorsey by saying 'well the Bills are anomalous' and then similarly fail to account for the decline in EPA under Brady which corresponded w more wins. It's not meant to be entirely predictive but the difference in actual scoring between the two offenses was <1 ppg...is that enough to account for such a dramatic difference in win/loss%? I would say almost certainly not

 

I maintained then and still do that the metrics supported the idea that the offense would find itself through the midseason lull v Giants-Broncos (roughly)...these guys seem content to chalk up the difference in it's entirety to playcalling differences in certain key areas between the respective OCs and I think that's too convenient

 

Their explanation explains the difference in the actual stat and your eyeballs should support the fact that we had a very inconsistent offense that was predicated on big plays in a boom or bust way for the first half of the season and then became much more consistent once we started running the ball regularly. The offense "found" itself when we started running and distributing the ball evenly and that happened when we changed coordinators. 

[NI Bills Fan]

Thanks, a good listen.

 

Interesting that he had Edefuan Ulofoshio as his LB3 in the draft, thinks we got a steal there.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

LockedOn Bills (Joe Marino founded the draftnetwork and then bounced, you may remember they used to be a decent website and went downhill, that's because he and another founder left to start the LockedOn Network).

 

Not quite right. The LockedOn Network has existed for a while. Joe has been a contributor on it for a long time (as has the other Draft Network founder you reference - Kyle Crabbs) but they didn't start or found that. 

 

They were two of the five founders of the Draft Network. Marino and Crabbs had originally collaborated together on NDT Scouting with Jon Ledyard. The Draft Network was basically Ledyard's idea funded by a guy name JC Cornell whose dad owns/owned Target. Marino, Crabbs and Trevor Sikkema (now of PFF) were the other three "founders" and they were really the content guys. Ledyard was the convener / organiser, Cornell put up the cash and the other three guys were the ones who gave the site its credibility through their content. 

 

Basically it began to fall apart when Ledyard had to resign over some racist tweets that emerged from years prior. Then Cornell sold up, Sikkema left to go to PFF and it ended up as a basket case. Ironically 2022 which in my mind was their best year in terms of their actual draft coverage, quality of their content etc was a complete disaster behind the scenes. The new ownership was running it into the ground financially, they were being sued by their web hosts and their live draft show was filmed in a porn studio where the analysts had to sleep on blow up beds and hide sex toys out of shot. 

 

I think Joe and Kyle tried to keep it going for as long as they could but eventually they walked away in the middle of the 2023 draft season and took their podcast "the Draft Dudes" back to the Locked on Network where it had begun before being incorporated into the Draft Network. 

 

The Draft Network website is now back (after being offline for much of the 2024 draft season) and they look like they are producing content again. There is a LOT of early 2025 draft content some of which is decent enough. They still have Keith Sanchez (who was a personnel advisor at LSU) who is a credible analyst on all things draft and personnel but the rest of their contributors are people I'd classify as bloggers about the draft rather than analysts who can really get into the film and break players down the way Joe and Kyle can. So in short, it looks like they are going to give it another go in 2025 but the quality of the people they have isn't what it was. 

 

It is a shame because there is a market for a site doing exactly what TDN does. But it needs really good management and it looks like it was a classic start up story behind the scenes. A group of buddies with a cool idea and a bit of start up capital but lacking the strategic direction to bring it together.