Bass struggling at minicamp (and now at training camp)

[H2o]

10 hours ago, Neo said:

Here’s another one.   One minute left in the Super Bowl.  Bills, down two points and on the opponent’s thirty.  It’s 4th and seven.   Do you go for it on fourth down, or send Bass in to kick a forty seven yard FG?

 

I go for the first down.

Without hesitation, I let him kick. Just my 2. To me this seems more like a "do you trust a McDermott defense?" type of question. I don't know if I do, but I'd rather let Bass kick than try a 4th and 7. 

[GoBills808]

54 minutes ago, H2o said:

Without hesitation, I let him kick. Just my 2. To me this seems more like a "do you trust a McDermott defense?" type of question. I don't know if I do, but I'd rather let Bass kick than try a 4th and 7. 

I mean we basically just tried this and he missed it

[Neo]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

Without hesitation, I let him kick. Just my 2. To me this seems more like a "do you trust a McDermott defense?" type of question. I don't know if I do, but I'd rather let Bass kick than try a 4th and 7. 

 

My focus wasn’t on the defense.   I should have asked, what do you think is more likely to result in points, a 47 yard field goal or going for it on 4th and seven … with the SB drama just for fun.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

10 minutes ago, Neo said:

 

My focus wasn’t on the defense.   I should have asked, what do you think is more likely to result in points, a 47 yard field goal or going for it on 4th and seven … with the SB drama just for fun.

You kick the ball 100% of the time from that distance and with that amount to gain. The only time you would not would be if it was a wind/weather issue. 

 

I think if it was 4th and under 2 yards I probably would go for it so you can burn the clock and kick with no time left. I'd trust my offense to get 2 yards more than my defense to stop the opponent who only needs to get a FG to beat me. The NFL odds of converting the first down at that distance is over 60%. I actually think McDermott would go for it as well.

 

I'd kick in a SuperBowl with presumed dome or ideal outdoor conditions up to 54 yards. I'd say the odds of making a 54 yard kick are probably better than 4th and 7. I found a stat that said 4th down and 8 or more yards converted only 40% of the time. My bet is your kicker will make a 54 yard FG more than 4 times out of 10. 

[TheBrownBear]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I mean we basically just tried this and he missed it

You play the probabilities.  Bass is a career 76% kicker from 40+ yards (includes 50+, where he's around 63%).  The odds of picking up 4th and 7 are around 43%.  Obviously, the analysis doesn't end there.  You have to consider expected points, game clock/management, how your offense is playing in the moment and what your opponent has on the other side.  Turns out that while having Bass kick was the probabilistically "correct" call, it was a close one according to the chart.  Here's a good article discussing these issues: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-fourth-down-conversion-chart-rate-by-distance/vofkeub6xwms6imajxqkfipp 

Edited August 21 by TheBrownBear

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

You play the probabilities.  Bass is a career 76% kicker from 40+ yards (includes 50+, where he's around 63%).  The odds of picking up 4th and 7 are around 43%.  Obviously, the analysis doesn't end there.  You have to consider expected points, game clock/management, how you're offense is playing in the moment and what your opponent has on the other side.  Turns out that while having Bass kick was the probabilistically "correct" call, it was a close one according to the chart.  Here's a good article discussing these issues: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-fourth-down-conversion-chart-rate-by-distance/vofkeub6xwms6imajxqkfipp 

Ty🤙🤙I know the stats

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

Without hesitation, I let him kick. Just my 2. To me this seems more like a "do you trust a McDermott defense?" type of question. I don't know if I do, but I'd rather let Bass kick than try a 4th and 7. 

 

If you are even considering not kicking then you need to cut your kicker and get a different one.

[K-9]

13 hours ago, Neo said:

Here’s another one.   One minute left in the Super Bowl.  Bills, down two points and on the opponent’s thirty.  It’s 4th and seven.   Do you go for it on fourth down, or send Bass in to kick a forty seven yard FG?

 

I go for the first down.

Based on the success rates of 4th and 7 ( 43%)* and Tyler Bass’s career success rate on FGs between 40-49 yards (84%)  it’s a no-brainer for me: I let Bass attempt the FG. Of course weather might impact the decision, but Bass has a nearly double the chance to be successful. 
 

* based on a study of data between 2013-2022 published by The Sporting News. A ten year chunk of data is a pretty good sample size imo. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I mean we basically just tried this and he missed it

Yep. Still, the numbers say you kick that every time (barring weather factors ). Kickers have improved and a 47 yard kick isn’t thought of like it was in 1991. Now, fourth and 3 or 4 and I have Josh Allen at QB ? I’m putting the ball in his hands to win or lose. 

[Roundybout]

I’m at the “arms folded” stage of concern 

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Yep. Still, the numbers say you kick that every time (barring weather factors ). Kickers have improved and a 47 yard kick isn’t thought of like it was in 1991. Now, fourth and 3 or 4 and I have Josh Allen at QB ? I’m putting the ball in his hands to win or lose. 

they certainly do, here's the 4th down bot

 

 

obviously very very strongly in favor of FG which strictly as a component of EV i 100% agree with

 

however i would also add some context to the decision tree- for example you can see if the 4th down attempt is successful your win percentage immediately jumps over the successful fg attempt...i would further complicate the matter by looking at allen's playoff success rate on 3rd/4th down and the fact that bass is a 33% kicker from 40-49 in the playoffs

 

i think fg is still likely the call but i dont think its a slam dunk like some here seem to

[Neo]

The question I asked provided more insight into my Bass apprehension and my Allen confidence than it did to “the odds”.

 

Grateful to the learned.

 

PS … I might have the same answer for fourth and eight.

[zow2]

Just gonna have to suck it up and hope for the best w TBass.   We've seen this movie with the Bills and all over the league.  Kicker "A" who has proven to be pretty good if not very good, hits some bad times...maybe his confidence wanes.  He gets released.  Meanwhile the team picks up an aging journeyman kicker off the scrap heap (or maybe an unproven free agent) who ends up being worse than Kicker A. and the cycle continues....maybe for a few seasons.

 

Meanwhile Kicker A is picked up ASAP by another desperate team going through similar kicker issues.   For whatever reason, he gets his confidence back, kicks well and gets an extension.  And the original team is left thinking, Hmmmm maybe we should have just rode it out.

[HappyDays]

This is a five alarm fire. Our kicker is 8 of 14 in practice this week. I don't know the path forward from here but being less than 50% from 40+ yards puts us at a HUGE disadvantage, if that needs to be said. On top of the other issues we're likely to have this year, Bass might be the difference in us missing the playoffs entirely.

[Process]

Well, McDermott is already pretty aggressive on 4th down. I'm guessing we'll be going for it even more now from the opp 25-45, which I don't necessarily think is a bad thing. 

 

But an unreliable kicker with a bad contract is a pretty brutal problem to have. Bass' strength is his big leg, and we can't even use it.

 

Hopefully he shakes it off once the games start and gets his confidence back. 

[Roundybout]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

This is a five alarm fire. Our kicker is 8 of 14 in practice this week. I don't know the path forward from here but being less than 50% from 40+ yards puts us at a HUGE disadvantage, if that needs to be said. On top of the other issues we're likely to have this year, Bass might be the difference in us missing the playoffs entirely.

I think his confidence is absolutely shot after Wide Right 2. 
 

I wasn’t really cognizant for it, but how did Norwood do the next season after Super Bowl 25?

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Process said:

Well, McDermott is already pretty aggressive on 4th down. I'm guessing we'll be going for it even more now from the opp 25-45, which I don't necessarily think is a bad thing. 

 

But an unreliable kicker with a bad contract is a pretty brutal problem to have. Bass' strength is his big leg, and we can't even use it.

 

Hopefully he shakes it off once the games start and gets his confidence back. 

Does he really have a strong leg tho

 

What evidence is there of that?

[Jerry Jabber]

 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Jerry Jabber said:

 

i mean it wasnt great going into last season

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, Process said:

Well, McDermott is already pretty aggressive on 4th down. I'm guessing we'll be going for it even more now from the opp 25-45, which I don't necessarily think is a bad thing. 

 

But an unreliable kicker with a bad contract is a pretty brutal problem to have. Bass' strength is his big leg, and we can't even use it.

 

Hopefully he shakes it off once the games start and gets his confidence back. 

It is a big problem, even more magnified by the weak group of WRs. Those FGs will probably be even more important this season as you’d expect a noticeable dip in TD production.