Why was Sammy Watkins a bust?

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, Billl said:

He wasn’t a bust at all. He had a 9 year career with 5400 yards, 34 TDs, and was the leading receiver in the 2019 postseason en route to a Super Bowl. He was a good player who was overdrafted. 

 

 

He was a bust. 

 

Nobody, but nobody, thought the Bills overdrafted him until they started to see his level of performance year after year. If the Bills hadn't traded up, they never would have gotten him.

 

The level he performed at was not bad, really. But for a guy drafted in the top ten, he was a bust, compared to his perceived draft value. And that's what a bust is.

 

Whitner is a guy who was overdrafted. Should never have been drafted that high, and if the Bills hadn't taken him there he seemed very likely to fall to the late 20s or so, at which point he'd have been a decent pick. 

 

Watkins wasn't going to fall if we didn't draft him.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Certainly the losing culture in the locker room was no help, but it's clear from Dunne's article that Sammy was struggling with expectations, pressures from home, and horrors of his life growing up.  It's clear as day in that article he was suffering from stress and depression and mired in self destructive behavior that he feels played a large role in injuries and tearing up his body.  Over time he compounded it with self-isolation. 

 

It's questionable that a winning culture would have mattered.  To his credit, he recognizes and admits it, family pressures were bigger for him than football.

 

But I feel like blaming the poor Bills culture at the time is mostly off the mark and diminishes from the internal struggle he was trying to come to terms with.

 

 

 

 

All of that is where leadership comes in.   Lot's and lot's of players come from hardship situations.   But Sammy lived on a mansion on a hill compared to what Ray Davis grew up with,  as a current example.   Sammy had a caring step-dad and two hard working parents.   They were not broke living on the street.   

 

Anquan Boldin was a free agent that offseason but the Bills chose not to pursue him or ANY proven veteran to lead that room.   Instead Watkins walked in and was immediately the alpha in all regards.   Boldin was the guy for the job.   From the same culture in South Florida.   Hard nosed but a smart worker/trainer.    Watkins didn't know what he didn't know.   That's what was important to address.

 

McBeane came in and immediately knew Boldin was the guy for the job but it was a little too late.    Watkins wasn't buying in automatically to what McDermott was selling.   Neither was Dareus.   McBeane deemed having to prove themselves to players as a threat to their regime so they chose to get worse over working to earn the trust of any of the skeptical young core of players who had leverage on the organization.

 

Gilmore, Woods, Watkins, Darby, Dareus.........that was basically most of their successful early round picks under Gailey/Marrone.    Set the roster way back relative to a team they were competing for WC spots with every year in the KC Chiefs.   Also dug a cap hole by helping to produce the most dead money in one offseason in then-NFL history.   Not an ideal start and it beget the terrible free agent class of 2018 which wasted about $100M in cap space on trash.    

 

Thankfully,  stud QB's fix most problems.   

[Matt_In_NH]

I think the main reason is he just was not passionate about being an NFL player.....he just happened to be blessed with physical abilities.  This is part of what teams try to evaluate when going through the draft process....does the guy want it emotionally/psychologically?

[Billy Claude]

25 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

He was a bust. 

 

Nobody, but nobody, thought the Bills overdrafted him until they started to see his level of performance year after year. If the Bills hadn't traded up, they never would have gotten him.

 

 

 

He wasn't overdrafted in the sense that  people would not have been surprised if the Browns picked him at 4.   However, the general consensus both among the local and national media at the time was the Bills substantially overpaid for him, especially given the recognized strength of the WR draft class that year.

 

This was one of those lose-lose trades.   The Browns used the Bills draft choices to pick epic bust Justin Gilbert (1st 2014), ordinary bust Cameron Evans (1st 2015), and a JAG 5th rounder, Ibrahim Malcolm-Campbell.

 

 

[GaryPinC]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

All of that is where leadership comes in.   Lot's and lot's of players come from hardship situations.   But Sammy lived on a mansion on a hill compared to what Ray Davis grew up with,  as a current example.   Sammy had a caring step-dad and two hard working parents.   They were not broke living on the street.   

 

Anquan Boldin was a free agent that offseason but the Bills chose not to pursue him or ANY proven veteran to lead that room.   Instead Watkins walked in and was immediately the alpha in all regards.   Boldin was the guy for the job.   From the same culture in South Florida.   Hard nosed but a smart worker/trainer.    Watkins didn't know what he didn't know.   That's what was important to address.

 

McBeane came in and immediately knew Boldin was the guy for the job but it was a little too late.    Watkins wasn't buying in automatically to what McDermott was selling.   Neither was Dareus.   McBeane deemed having to prove themselves to players as a threat to their regime so they chose to get worse over working to earn the trust of any of the skeptical young core of players who had leverage on the organization.

 

Gilmore, Woods, Watkins, Darby, Dareus.........that was basically most of their successful early round picks under Gailey/Marrone.    Set the roster way back relative to a team they were competing for WC spots with every year in the KC Chiefs.   Also dug a cap hole by helping to produce the most dead money in one offseason in then-NFL history.   Not an ideal start and it beget the terrible free agent class of 2018 which wasted about $100M in cap space on trash.    

 

Thankfully,  stud QB's fix most problems.   

It's a strong argument you make, except for one glaring problem:  Sammy Watkins is unique and a bit out there, a head case who fervently clings to his own ideas and has never been too willing to listen much to others.

 

You want to argue veterans and leadership guiding him to greatness?  He played three years in Kansas City, outside of 2 or 3 memorable games never distinguished himself as a premier receiver, despite professing to love Reid and be tight with Mahomes.  A premier atmosphere for him to catapult to greatness but he never did, "choosing" to leave because he wanted a better opportunity to be a number 1 receiver.

 

He would have come back to Buffalo for it.

 

Boldin wouldn't have made a difference.  Sammy was a career 400-600 yard receiver a year.  It's clear from the article he likes to think big but seldom comes close.  

 

WRT McBeane, I remember Gilmore and Woods just wanted out at that time and who could blame them?  I don't remember much about Darby but Dareus was another inconsistent, talented player that seemed frequently unmotivated.

 

While you believe McBeane deemed Watkins and Dareus a threat to their regime, I believe McBeane viewed them more as a threat to the culture they wanted to establish and not worth the effort to try and coax consistently high performances.  It's been almost seven years since then and judging by their careers I'd say McBeane were on the correct side of those decisions.

[bmur66]

Obvious red flags were overlooked 

[HardyBoy]

On 6/11/2024 at 5:30 PM, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

No, I'm definitely not correlating alcohol and substance issues with character.

 

There are plenty of good people out there that addiction has gotten it's claws into. There's also functioning addicts, like Poyer that you mentioned and Von Miller that are able to still put in the work and be mentally in the game.

 

Unfortunately, it didn't seem that was the case for Watkins. His demons, whether it be addiction or trauma (which surely led to addiction) had their claws in him too deep. He was talented enough to still play at a moderate NFL level, even with the things he was dealing with. But he was never able to live up to the expectations on pure talent alone.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2889029-what-sammy-watkins-believes

 

Well said and just saw an opportunity for exploring some nuance and where it really gets interesting is a player like Dareus after he signed the contract...it's not like he just retired, he was still exposing himself to injury...I feel like a substance addiction almost makes it easier to justify or perhaps explain away the behavior, but they kinda Jerry Garcia'd their careers, and i don't mean that as a knock on Garcia, I'm a huge fan of his and it's a crazy nuanced super sad issue, but he didn't really die because of substances, but because he stopped giving a crap and ate himself to death (plus the substances).

 

I think there were some deitifcation aspects that for sure contributed to Garcia's downfall and him being a hugely empathetic person and wanting to help people around him and not let them down by taking a break from touring, which his life depended on.

 

Actually a lot of analogous things there with Jerry Garcia...poor dude just gave up eventually...super sad

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

It's a strong argument you make, except for one glaring problem:  Sammy Watkins is unique and a bit out there, a head case who fervently clings to his own ideas and has never been too willing to listen much to others.

 

You want to argue veterans and leadership guiding him to greatness?  He played three years in Kansas City, outside of 2 or 3 memorable games never distinguished himself as a premier receiver, despite professing to love Reid and be tight with Mahomes.  A premier atmosphere for him to catapult to greatness but he never did, "choosing" to leave because he wanted a better opportunity to be a number 1 receiver.

 

He would have come back to Buffalo for it.

 

Boldin wouldn't have made a difference.  Sammy was a career 400-600 yard receiver a year.  It's clear from the article he likes to think big but seldom comes close.  

 

WRT McBeane, I remember Gilmore and Woods just wanted out at that time and who could blame them?  I don't remember much about Darby but Dareus was another inconsistent, talented player that seemed frequently unmotivated.

 

While you believe McBeane deemed Watkins and Dareus a threat to their regime, I believe McBeane viewed them more as a threat to the culture they wanted to establish and not worth the effort to try and coax consistently high performances.  It's been almost seven years since then and judging by their careers I'd say McBeane were on the correct side of those decisions.

 

By the time Watkins got to KC he was set in his ways, one of the highest paid WR in the NFL and his injuries were mounting.   He still had his moments.........often in the playoffs........but he wasn't the same quality of player that he had been in his first two seasons in Buffalo.

 

The idea that he was too much of a screwball to have been great is wrong though.   He was a beast at Clemson.   A real gamer.   But like I said, he didn't know what he didn't know.   A big part of that was how to take care of his body.

 

He played his final college game on a bad knee.   It wasn't a game for anything but pride.......but he went out there and hung 227 on the Buckeyes on 16 very physical catches limping around on a sore knee.  He didn't understand the concept of letting your body recover.   That is exactly the kind of thing that having vets around can teach a young knucklehead. 

 

 

Sometimes a player ruins their great potential by not listening to their body.    Don Mattingly should have been a first ballot HOF'er in baseball.   Had to take like 1,000 swings every day because he was brought up thinking that hard work was the answer.   Ended up ruining his back.    

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, HardyBoy said:

 

Well said and just saw an opportunity for exploring some nuance and where it really gets interesting is a player like Dareus after he signed the contract...it's not like he just retired, he was still exposing himself to injury...I feel like a substance addiction almost makes it easier to justify or perhaps explain away the behavior, but they kinda Jerry Garcia'd their careers, and i don't mean that as a knock on Garcia, I'm a huge fan of his and it's a crazy nuanced super sad issue, but he didn't really die because of substances, but because he stopped giving a crap and ate himself to death (plus the substances).

 

I think there were some deitifcation aspects that for sure contributed to Garcia's downfall and him being a hugely empathetic person and wanting to help people around him and not let them down by taking a break from touring, which his life depended on.

 

Actually a lot of analogous things there with Jerry Garcia...poor dude just gave up eventually...super sad

 

I think the problem with Sammy is that he was so supremely gifted that he never really had to put in the work at Clemson. He could show up and just smoke College athletes.

 

In the NFL, it's a different ball game. He could still play at a moderate level skating by on just pure talent because he was just THAT talented. But to be what he was expected to be coming into the league, he'd have to really work and dedicate himself. And that just wasn't in him.

 

He tells stories of showing up to practice still under the influence from the night before. You can't do that and expect to be the best at your position at the NFL level. Reading that article, it's actually kind of amazing that he performed as well as he did in the NFL with what he was dealing with mentally and physically and with his approach to NFL football.

Edited June 13 by BillsFanForever19

[Augie]

It’s simple. Sammy failed to account for the curvature of the Earth when tracking in passes. You can’t win that way. 

[NewEra]

On 6/11/2024 at 1:47 PM, Billl said:

He wasn’t a bust at all. He had a 9 year career with 5400 yards, 34 TDs, and was the leading receiver in the 2019 postseason en route to a Super Bowl. He was a good player who was overdrafted. 

Nah- A bust is a player that didn’t meet expectations.  He was the consensus best WR in the draft and he ended up not even being close to that.  Probably the 7th best- barely edging out John Brown
 

You don’t have to be a bad pro to be a bust.  He was a solid player and had a decent career for a day 2 pick- very solid career for a day 3 pick……but he was a bust as he was the consensus WR1 in his class.  

 

 

Edited June 13 by NewEra

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Nah- A bust is a player that didn’t meet expectations.  He was the consensus best WR in the draft and he ended up not even being close to that.  Probably the 7th best- barely edging out John Brown
 

You don’t have to be a bad pro to be a bust.  He was a solid player and had a decent career for a day 2 pick- very solid career for a day 3 pick……but he was a bust as he was the consensus WR1 in his class.  

 

 

He's wasn't just the consensus WR1 in that class - he was considered the best WR prospect coming out of College, maybe ever. He was Marvin Harrison Jr. 10 years before Marvin Harrison Jr. A "can't miss" prospect.

Edited June 13 by BillsFanForever19

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Gilmore, Woods, Watkins, Darby, Dareus.........that was basically most of their successful early round picks under Gailey/Marrone.    Set the roster way back relative to a team they were competing for WC spots with every year in the KC Chiefs.   Also dug a cap hole by helping to produce the most dead money in one offseason in then-NFL history.   Not an ideal start and it beget the terrible free agent class of 2018 which wasted about $100M in cap space on trash.    

 

Thankfully,  stud QB's fix most problems.   

 

Agreed, I always said the 2017 tear down was a choice not the only route. But it wasn't just that they drafted Josh. Tre, Dion, Milano and Taron also came from those first two draft classes and they got Poyer and Hyde in the McDermott free agency period of 2017 too. Of course Josh mattered most, QBs always do, but having ripped apart the old core they were pretty successful in building a new one. They are now right at another transition point from that core to the next one, they need to get that right too.

[Jauronimo]

18 hours ago, Orlando Buffalo said:

There are three components of this to me in order of importance:

1) he was injured often and never learned how to fight through them.

2) people had absurd expectations of what he would do, he had two good seasons and has had a meh career, but he is not a bust to me just less than expected. 

3) the Bills offense was not built to let him succeed, we had QBs who could not sling it, which would have allowed him to show his ability, by the time he got that QB reason #1 was dominant

If anything he fought through injuries when he should have been sitting.  "If it pops, it pops".  Spoiler Alert: **** It popped *****

 

But not before he had 4 catches for 48 yards and a TD in the first half.  

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/21496/bills-sammy-watkins-on-calf-injury-if-it-pops-it-pops

 

Sammy was a legit talent and a very good NFL player.  He had the talent to be an all time great.

Edited June 13 by Jauronimo

[Dafan]

Had Buffalo had Allen when we drafted him...Sammy would have been amazing here.  Unfortunately, he was drafted when we didn't have any of the pieces in place offensive wise.  Mack should have been the pick.

[Strethor]

He was a bust because he had no work ethic, would get drunk and fat in Buffalo. He had raw talent and would be much closer to Evans/Odel if he was not so complacent. The talent was there 

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agreed, I always said the 2017 tear down was a choice not the only route. But it wasn't just that they drafted Josh. Tre, Dion, Milano and Taron also came from those first two draft classes and they got Poyer and Hyde in the McDermott free agency period of 2017 too. Of course Josh mattered most, QBs always do, but having ripped apart the old core they were pretty successful in building a new one. They are now right at another transition point from that core to the next one, they need to get that right too.

 

 

Yeah they got some very good/important players in the 2017-2018 drafts but I think it's important to note that it's much easier to draft efficiently when every position is a need.   See Donahoe's first draft.  Clements/Schobel/Henry/Jennings?  I mean, c'mon.  You'd have thought he was going to build a dynasty drafting like that.  It's really pretty common for tear downs to start with a bunch of hits in the draft because it forces the team to go BPA.   Then a regime starts d!cking around patching holes in subsequent drafts and their true acumen becomes evident.

 

Overall, I don't think they excelled at re-stocking.   Allen was 90% of the turnaround.   I suspect they get fired in 2020 if they had taken Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen.

 

McBeane inherited a pretty talented roster with a couple key young free agents(Gilmore/Woods) but had a franchise tag and money to burn with over $30M in cap space and almost no commitments in coming seasons.   You lose a Gilmore for nothing and then use a 1st on White.    That's just the same drought-era-formula roster churn.  You aren't getting ahead playing those games.

 

That's why it really took them until 2020 to get the roster back near to the talent level of what they inherited.  Three years is an eternity in the NFL roster building.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah they got some very good/important players in the 2017-2018 drafts but I think it's important to note that it's much easier to draft efficiently when every position is a need.   See Donahoe's first draft.  Clements/Schobel/Henry/Jennings?  I mean, c'mon.  You'd have thought he was going to build a dynasty drafting like that.  It's really pretty common for tear downs to start with a bunch of hits in the draft because it forces the team to go BPA.   Then a regime starts d!cking around patching holes in subsequent drafts and their true acumen becomes evident.

 

Overall, I don't think they excelled at re-stocking.   Allen was 90% of the turnaround.   I suspect they get fired in 2020 if they had taken Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen.

 

McBeane inherited a pretty talented roster with a couple key young free agents(Gilmore/Woods) but had a franchise tag and money to burn with over $30M in cap space and almost no commitments in coming seasons.   You lose a Gilmore for nothing and then use a 1st on White.    That's just the same drought-era-formula roster churn.  You aren't getting ahead playing those games.

 

That's why it really took them until 2020 to get the roster back near to the talent level of what they inherited.  Three years is an eternity in the NFL roster building.

 

 

For sure it is easier drafting at the start. I don't think their drafting since has been good enough to win a Championship. It has been good enough to keep the team very competitive year in year out. But you need stars to win Superbowls. And they haven't drafted enough of those. One (Allen) in 44 picks Beane has made excluding this year's class. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

For sure it is easier drafting at the start. I don't think their drafting since has been good enough to win a Championship. It has been good enough to keep the team very competitive year in year out. But you need stars to win Superbowls. And they haven't drafted enough of those. One (Allen) in 44 picks Beane has made excluding this year's class. 

 

 

Yeah and I attribute some of that to the hole patching mentality instead of shooting for the moon.   You can draft RB's on day 2 every year in this era and none of them is really going to move the needle on whether or not you win a SB.   They've done it 3 times since 2019.

 

And money poorly spent on acquisitions in 2017 and 2018 is still being felt today.   Even in todays cap dollars it's crazy to think what Beane spent on the likes of Kelvin Benjamin, Corey Coleman and that brutal cast of 2018 free agents.   And basically got NOTHING out of over $100M in actual expenditures.   Every step matters.   Fans sometimes view positive situations wrt the cap as a time when money can be wasted.   Wrong.   McBeane got themselves upside down quick and tearing down played a big role in those poor decisions.   Not having that capital has limited them in recent offseasons.   You need those stars you are talking about.   They needed a DeAndre Hopkins last year.   They will probably lament not getting a veteran WR1 this year.  

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah they got some very good/important players in the 2017-2018 drafts but I think it's important to note that it's much easier to draft efficiently when every position is a need.   See Donahoe's first draft.  Clements/Schobel/Henry/Jennings?  I mean, c'mon.  You'd have thought he was going to build a dynasty drafting like that.  It's really pretty common for tear downs to start with a bunch of hits in the draft because it forces the team to go BPA.   Then a regime starts d!cking around patching holes in subsequent drafts and their true acumen becomes evident.

 

Overall, I don't think they excelled at re-stocking.   Allen was 90% of the turnaround.   I suspect they get fired in 2020 if they had taken Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen.

 

McBeane inherited a pretty talented roster with a couple key young free agents(Gilmore/Woods) but had a franchise tag and money to burn with over $30M in cap space and almost no commitments in coming seasons.   You lose a Gilmore for nothing and then use a 1st on White.    That's just the same drought-era-formula roster churn.  You aren't getting ahead playing those games.

 

That's why it really took them until 2020 to get the roster back near to the talent level of what they inherited.  Three years is an eternity in the NFL roster building.

 

 

Mayfield never leaves Buffalo like he did Cleveland.

 

I actually think we’d have around the same level of team success we have had with Josh.