Buffalo_Stampede Posted June 12 Posted June 12 1 minute ago, SoonerBillsFan said: I don't care about the contract, get another kicker in here asap. It’s not that simple. Probably half the league feels good about their kicker. The other half are either hoping or scared to death. 1 Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted June 12 Posted June 12 I will never feel comfortable with Bass kicking again. 1 1 Quote
nucci Posted June 12 Posted June 12 1 hour ago, BillsFooteball said: Another pick for Elam today! Sounds like having himself a nice camp or the QBs are not Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted June 12 Posted June 12 7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: I will never feel comfortable with Bass kicking again. Almost every kicker has a year or 2 where they’re just off. It’s weird. Quote
HappyDays Posted June 12 Posted June 12 35 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said: This WR room isn’t going to be made up entirely of 6’4” guys who aren’t particularly fast. That would be redundant. Isabella, and Hamler both have top-end speed, exceptional cutting ability, K/PR potential, and have traits that would be unique to the room. They need a gadget guy. IMO, one of these guys is going to make the roster. Curtis Samuel is supposed to be the gadget player. I'm surprised how little we've heard about him in OTAs and minicamp, but maybe the Bills are trying to hide his role a bit. I think he will be deployed in a lot of interesting ways. Isabella I have zero interest in. At no point has he produced in this league and it hasn't been injuries holding him back. He just isn't an NFL player. Hamler at least intrigues me because talent has never been his problem, but you can't count on him to be healthy. If you keep him you're probably keeping 7 WRs on the roster and I don't think that's likely. 41 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said: And in disagreement with @HappyDays, I will say there is no such thing as “practice squad fodder." Every player with a number should be ready to be called up. I don't believe most teams have last year's PS WRs taking snaps with the 1st team. I see a lot of people saying that it's normal, but is it? I don't remember Shavers for example getting 1st team reps last year, I could be wrong though. In the past there's been a core group of WRs getting regular snaps with Josh Allen, with a couple being mixed in sparingly for injury or rest. This year the distribution of targets so far has seemed to be a bit all over the place. But that's the state of the WR room right now. We have like 7 guys that would be really good WR4s. We'll be scrambling to stack them in the right order and hopefully somebody will elevate their game enough to give our passing offense some sort of top tier ceiling. Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted June 12 Posted June 12 52 minutes ago, FireChans said: Also, FYI, the Bills are bottom 5 as it stands in 2024. 2 things: You do not actually know that. That is your "offseason on paper" personal opinion and grade. The reality is that nobody knows how good or bad the group will perform as they have never taken a snap together on the field. Also, KC has not had a good WR room the last 2 years and is the reigning back to back SB Champs. More than WR's catch the ball...to isolate only the WR room about the Bills is being disingenuous in assessing the weapons as a whole. Allens weapons are not only the WR room, but Kincaid (and still has Knox too) and our RB's saw 80 targets last year and could rise to 100 this year given both Davis and Ty behind Cook are very good receivers out of the back field too. Im not going to debate whether they are bottom 5 or not...because I do not know how good or bad this group is until we see them on the field. I don't care about paper rankings in the offseason, they are as meaningless as post draft grades before rookies ever take a snap. I do know that Shakir had a mini-breakout last year, Cook broke out, and Kincaid had a great rookie year. We have added some solid vets who have never played with a QB nearly as good as Allen around the youth. One of those guys, Claypool, is still young with a lot of talent if he can learn how to play the game the right way and work his way on to the team. Point is...people running around here making a fuss over the fact guys like Isabella, KJ, and Shavers getting reps in OTA's is a waste of energy. The WR room is an open competition and its only the first mandatory OTA's, of course they are going to give guys a look because the pecking order is fluid after Keon, Shakir, and Samuel and once real camp begins the guys at the bottom trying to beat the odds will get less and less reps. 2 2 Quote
K-9 Posted June 12 Posted June 12 1 hour ago, FireChans said: Big expensive WR's don't guarantee you anything. Agree with that. What do bottom 5 WR rooms guarantee you? In 2023, the 5 teams with bottom 5 WR rooms by AAV went 36-49, collectively. One team made the postseason and won 1 game. In 2022, the bottom 5 teams went 29-56, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round. in 2021, the bottom 5 teams went 37-48, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round. In 2020, the bottom 5 teams went 39-41, collectively. Two teams made the postseason, and both lost in the WC round. So a bottom 5 WR group, based on the last 4 seasons, doesn't really seem to be a recipe for success. Right? 1 team in the last 4 seasons WON a SINGLE playoff game. That's the peak of this strategy. For comparison, I can do top 5 WR room numbers. Would guarantee they are much better lol. Also, FYI, the Bills are bottom 5 as it stands in 2024. Before you do those comparisons, can we get your qualifying criteria for your rankings? 1 Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted June 12 Posted June 12 26 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Updates from Matt Parrino. Sounds like the offense was much better today, good to see. Thanks Happy for finding and posting all these. Another reason why over reaction yesterday was premature. I think it is important that people be a bit more patient this year, good or bad, because there will certainly be some ups and downs as there is a lot to adjust too on both sides of the ball. I think people forget we technically have 2 new Coordinators at OC and DC, so new language and systems are being installed, especially on offense. We have a lot of personnel changes on both sides of the ball. Allen reportedly made some tweaks to his throwing motion he is working into his game. Obviously, the only WR Allen has any timing and rapport with was Shakir, so he needs to build that with Keon, Samuel, and the other guys too. There is a lot of youth between rookies and young players looking to compete for big roles this season too. 2 Quote
Mikey152 Posted June 12 Posted June 12 (edited) 2 hours ago, FireChans said: Big expensive WR's don't guarantee you anything. Agree with that. What do bottom 5 WR rooms guarantee you? In 2023, the 5 teams with bottom 5 WR rooms by AAV went 36-49, collectively. One team made the postseason and won 1 game. In 2022, the bottom 5 teams went 29-56, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round. in 2021, the bottom 5 teams went 37-48, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round. In 2020, the bottom 5 teams went 39-41, collectively. Two teams made the postseason, and both lost in the WC round. So a bottom 5 WR group, based on the last 4 seasons, doesn't really seem to be a recipe for success. Right? 1 team in the last 4 seasons WON a SINGLE playoff game. That's the peak of this strategy. For comparison, I can do top 5 WR room numbers. Would guarantee they are much better lol. Also, FYI, the Bills are bottom 5 as it stands in 2024. Receivers don't play in a vacuum. Their performance is 100% tied to the play of the rest of their team. Bad WR AAV probably has high correlation to bad QB play. Chicken or the egg As for the Bills AAV, that's not exactly fair as none of the guys on the bills roster has gotten #1 or even #2 wr target share...of course their AAV would be suppressed. I'd bet money that the chiefs WR AAV at the start of 2023 was worse. Edited June 12 by Mikey152 Quote
FireChans Posted June 12 Posted June 12 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: 2 things: You do not actually know that. That is your "offseason on paper" personal opinion and grade. The reality is that nobody knows how good or bad the group will perform as they have never taken a snap together on the field. Also, KC has not had a good WR room the last 2 years and is the reigning back to back SB Champs. More than WR's catch the ball...to isolate only the WR room about the Bills is being disingenuous in assessing the weapons as a whole. Allens weapons are not only the WR room, but Kincaid (and still has Knox too) and our RB's saw 80 targets last year and could rise to 100 this year given both Davis and Ty behind Cook are very good receivers out of the back field too. Im not going to debate whether they are bottom 5 or not...because I do not know how good or bad this group is until we see them on the field. I don't care about paper rankings in the offseason, they are as meaningless as post draft grades before rookies ever take a snap. I do know that Shakir had a mini-breakout last year, Cook broke out, and Kincaid had a great rookie year. We have added some solid vets who have never played with a QB nearly as good as Allen around the youth. One of those guys, Claypool, is still young with a lot of talent if he can learn how to play the game the right way and work his way on to the team. Point is...people running around here making a fuss over the fact guys like Isabella, KJ, and Shavers getting reps in OTA's is a waste of energy. The WR room is an open competition and its only the first mandatory OTA's, of course they are going to give guys a look because the pecking order is fluid after Keon, Shakir, and Samuel and once real camp begins the guys at the bottom trying to beat the odds will get less and less reps. I do know it. It's not a "personal grade," at all. It's completely numerical. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2024/table/active/type/contract_average/sort/wr/dir/desc Oh GDI, the Bills are bottom 6. Back to the drawing board. Anyway, we are bottom 6 in AAV of WR's. I can re-do my analysis if you'd like, I doubt it changes much. I think Keon Coleman ***** it up by not signing his contract til the afternoon lol. 28 minutes ago, K-9 said: Before you do those comparisons, can we get your qualifying criteria for your rankings? AAV by year of contracts, per Spotrac. Edited June 12 by FireChans Quote
stevewin Posted June 12 Posted June 12 30 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: keni-h lovely cannot be a real person Rondell Bothroyd says hello Quote
FireChans Posted June 12 Posted June 12 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: Receivers don't play in a vacuum. Their performance is 100% tied to the play of the rest of their team. Bad WR AAV probably has high correlation to bad QB play. Chicken or the egg As for the Bills AAV, that's not exactly fair as none of the guys on the bills roster has gotten #1 or even #2 wr target share...of course their AAV would be suppressed. I'd bet money that the chiefs WR AAV at the start of 2023 was worse. 1 hour ago, FireChans said: Fair enough! In the bottom 5 units of the last 4 years, the QBs (that played the most) are: Heinecke, Big Ben, Carr, Cam Newton, Drew Lock, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan again, Justin Fields, Mariota, Jordan Love, Gardner Minshew, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr again, Kirk Cousins again. again, 1 playoff win between the crew. The top 5 units of the last 4 years: Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray again, Tua, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, Jimmy G, Tua again, Geno again, Baker, and Sam Howell. Now, at first glance, I think group two looks a bit better as a QB grouping. But for sake of argument, take Allen and Rodgers out because both were playing at MVP levels and that’s gonna skew the numbers a bit. The list below is closer to “league average” QB. Baker - 1 playoff appearance and win with the Bucs in the top 5 group Miami - 2 playoff appearances in the top 5 group Brady - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group (2022) Geno - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group Goff - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group lets look at some of their contemporaries in the bottom 5 group: Heinecke - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom Big Ben - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (2020) Carr - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (21) Jackson - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (2022) Love - 1 playoff appearance and win in the bottom. I would argue the groups are at least comparable now. I probably lean towards the bottom group being better at the time they played. But that’s the whole point. A great WR group had Baker and Geno and Goff achieving the same success as Lamar or Jordan Love, who imo, are much better. Now the corollary could be that if you have an athletic franchise QB, they can drag a bottom 5 group to the WC round. But I think we all agreed on that before lol. FYI, AAV is their contracts, not approximate value. Edited June 12 by FireChans Quote
Warcodered Posted June 12 Posted June 12 57 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Quote Major punter update: Sam Martin was the holder today for Tyler Bass. Remember in OTAs, Bass was 7for7 with rookie UDFA Jack Browning holding. Bass was erratic today, making just 3 of his 7 kicks with Martin as the holder. If Browning is close to Martin in the punting game, and maybe even if he isn't, we may have a new punter for the Bills this season. I mean if that's the difference between the two that's pretty significant, hell McDermott could practically just stomach going for it on 4th down every time if it meant getting that much of a difference on FG%. Quote
Cray51 Posted June 12 Posted June 12 2 hours ago, FireChans said: Big expensive WR's don't guarantee you anything. Agree with that. What do bottom 5 WR rooms guarantee you? In 2023, the 5 teams with bottom 5 WR rooms by AAV went 36-49, collectively. One team made the postseason and won 1 game. In 2022, the bottom 5 teams went 29-56, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round. in 2021, the bottom 5 teams went 37-48, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round. In 2020, the bottom 5 teams went 39-41, collectively. Two teams made the postseason, and both lost in the WC round. So a bottom 5 WR group, based on the last 4 seasons, doesn't really seem to be a recipe for success. Right? 1 team in the last 4 seasons WON a SINGLE playoff game. That's the peak of this strategy. For comparison, I can do top 5 WR room numbers. Would guarantee they are much better lol. Also, FYI, the Bills are bottom 5 as it stands in 2024. KC won the Super Bowl last year with a below average WR room. Rice is a good player, MVS we have, Moore is bad. They had Kelce who is all world, but the Bills have Kincaid and Knox who are no slouches. The Bills pure WR room is better than what Kansas City had last year to win the Super Bowl 1 Quote
FireChans Posted June 12 Posted June 12 4 minutes ago, Cray51 said: KC won the Super Bowl last year with a below average WR room. Rice is a good player, MVS we have, Moore is bad. They had Kelce who is all world, but the Bills have Kincaid and Knox who are no slouches. The Bills pure WR room is better than what Kansas City had last year to win the Super Bowl The Chiefs WR room was 19th in AAV last year. The Bills WR room is 27th in AAV in 2024. 1 Quote
Mikey152 Posted June 12 Posted June 12 (edited) 20 minutes ago, FireChans said: FYI, AAV is their contracts, not approximate value. Yeah, I figured that out... Doesn't change the fact that teams pay their best players, not theee best players. Just look at how many QBs make more than Josh. Edited June 12 by Mikey152 Quote
LEBills Posted June 12 Posted June 12 The Ravens have Justin Tucker and are hosting a visit with Jake Bates who had a very good season kicking in the UFL. I know Bass got his new contract but would be nice to see someone else compete with him this summer Quote
Jauronimo Posted June 12 Posted June 12 (edited) 22 minutes ago, FireChans said: I do know it. It's not a "personal grade," at all. It's completely numerical. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2024/table/active/type/contract_average/sort/wr/dir/desc Oh GDI, the Bills are bottom 6. Back to the drawing board. Anyway, we are bottom 6 in AAV of WR's. I can re-do my analysis if you'd like, I doubt it changes much. I think Keon Coleman ***** it up by not signing his contract til the afternoon lol. AAV by year of contracts, per Spotrac. And the biggest part of KC's 2023 WR AAV was paying MVS $10 million per year. Is our current WR room that much worse than the Chiefs 2023 because we only pay MVS $10.50 an hour? If we pay MVS $16 million this year do our odds of winning a championship improve? Edited June 12 by Jauronimo 1 2 Quote
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