I'm so sick of hearing about Josh Allen's Turnovers (fun article)

[Logic]

I saw this article from noted Josh Allen defender (though not a Bills fan, per se) Jarrett Bailey. Thought it was fun enough to share, and what the hell, it's the slow part of the offseason, so...enjoy!


https://atozsports.com/buffalo/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-turnovers/

 

The laziest argument in sports today is the one that Josh Allen naysayers make when they say "but... but... the turnovers."

Yes, the Buffalo Bills' alien cyborg was second in the NFL in interceptions in 2023. However, when you look at interception percentage, he wasn't throwing much more interceptions per attempt than many other quarterbacks who many media members drool over because of their underneath passing efficiency. 

Allen threw an interception roughly every 32 attempts in 2023. For comparison, Tua Tagovailoa threw an interception every 40 attempts and was fourth in the NFL in picks. Brock Purdy hovered around the same number of interceptions per attempt. 

But, since most fans of opposing teams just like to point at turnover numbers, I'll give them a few more numbers to point at since they'll be too busy eating boogers to do the research for themselves. 

 

Since 2020 (including playoffs), Josh Allen has three seasons in the top 20 of all quarterbacks in that span in terms of touchdown passes. Patrick Mahomes is the only other quarterback with three seasons in the top 20. How about yards since 2020? Allen also has three seasons in the top 20 of passing yards since 2020. Only Mahomes has more with four.

Allen's 137 touchdown passes are the second most in that span only to Mahomes. His 36 rushing touchdowns are second amongst quarterbacks with only Jalen Hurts having more. And his 174 total touchdowns in the last four seasons are the most in the NFL.

 

What about game-changing plays? Well, if you look at PFF's big time throws, Allen led the NFL in that category in both 2023 and 2022. He finished second in 2021 and fifth in 2020- he is the only quarterback in the NFL to finish in the top five in big time throws in each of the last four seasons.

Even when Allen is under pressure, he's still amazing. He has two seasons that are in the top 10 in terms of passing yards per game under pressure- Justin Herbert is the only other quarterback with two such seasons. He also has two of the 10 best seasons in terms of touchdown percentage against pressure. The only other quarterback who can say that is Russell Wilson. And while throwing past the sticks against pressure, he has two of the three best seasons in the last four years of any quarterback with at least 100 attempts against pressure.

 

So the next time someone says something about Josh Allen and his turnovers, show them these numbers. Because it's evident they don't dig any deeper to see that there has been precisely zero quarterbacks doing what he's been doing over the last half-decade. And every argument against him is the same argument because there is nothing else Allen haters can point to. 

It's lazy. So. Damn. Lazy.

Is Allen perfect? No. But he's a hell of a lot closer to it than just about every other quarterback in recent memory. And odds are if you are reading this and you aren't a Bills fan, your favorite team's general manager would trade their first born child if it meant having Allen as his quarterback. 

 

[PonyBoy]

We could talk about Coleman's lack of speed for X receiver if you want? 😏

 

[julian]

He’s gonna be a 1st ballot HOFer, the most talented, greatest duel threat QB of all time once his career is over.

 

17 is a freak show.

[BillsDad51]

Thanks for posting this.

[JDubya76]

We are lucky to be watching this kid ball. I will never take this time in Bills history for granted, I took for granted the 90s Bills and I learned my lesson. I will enjoy every minute of this.

[BuffaloBill]

12 minutes ago, julian said:

He’s gonna be a 1st ballot HOFer, the most talented, greatest duel threat QB of all time once his career is over.

 

17 is a freak show.

 

 

Yep, he just needs the team around him to get slightly better, especially in the playoffs.  With this said it was interesting at one point last year the Bills were a .500 team. Yes, enter Joe Brady but the D and ST’s were also not good enough.  The Bills to beat KC and others in the stacked AFC have to be able to play all three phases in a game.  

[stevestojan]

At handful (4 maybe?) of his INTs last season were absolutely bombs on 3rd down that ended up being favorable field position to an inevitable punt. Doesn’t excuse it, but a bit of context. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Not to mention his statistics in the playoffs are great. It's a lazy bull#### narrative. 

[Malazan]

42 minutes ago, PonyBoy said:

We could talk about Coleman's lack of speed for X receiver if you want? 😏

 

 

Finally, someone who has the courage to talk about it.

[H2o]

On 3/21/2024 at 1:45 PM, H2o said:

Let me preface this by saying Mahomes and Allen are #1 and #2 in the entire NFL right now. I don't care about MVP's, Pro Bowl's, All Pro's, Player voted rankings, none of that. And show me a single QB in this league who means more to his entire team, who carries more of the weight for his entire team, than Josh Allen. There isn't one. Their statistical runs have been matched by no other in NFL history. 

 

In the last 4 seasons:

 

Pat Mahomes - 20,148 total yds w/ 151 Total TD's

Josh Allen - 20,010 total yds w/ 173 Total TD's

 

No other player in the NFL is close to them. Herbert is a combined 2,000 behind Allen and Mahomes w/ 48 less TD's than JA17 in that time. You can claim it's because of injuries for the other "top" QB's in the NFL as to why they aren't close, but durability is also a necessary quality to be an elite QB. In that same span, Lamar Jackson has only amassed 14,916 total yds and 100 total TD's. That is almost 6,000 less yards in that time and 71 less TD's than Allen, but some of the "sports media" bobbleheads would have you believe that Lamar is better than JA17. COMPLETE horse manure. Clearly, these two (Mahomes and Allen) are the cream of the crop. 

This was my post from from another thread earlier this year. Mahomes and Allen are #1 & #2 in the NFL right now.

 

The people who constantly talk about the turnovers have an ax to grind. Either due to their "evaluation" of his talent prior to the draft or they still hold a grudge for the things that came out prior to the draft. Things that he tweeted or whatever. People can say it's not until they're blue in the face, but I don't believe them. It's blatantly obvious with some. 

 

The only game this year you can say the turnovers cost them the game, imo, the first Jets game. Three of the L's we had last year, all three of those games Josh had at least 1 turnover in, Josh also handed his team a lead with less than 2 minutes to go and the defense screwed the pooch.

 

 

5 minutes ago, stevestojan said:

At handful (4 maybe?) of his INTs last season were absolutely bombs on 3rd down that ended up being favorable field position to an inevitable punt. Doesn’t excuse it, but a bit of context. 

Are you talking about....dare I say it....arm punts? 

[Taro Nimbus]

No matter what Allen does, he’ll be criticized until he helps the Bills win the Lombardi.   It’s the way the media and casual fans rationalize things unfortunately.  

[TBBills Fan]

Can he play DE?

[CSBill]

Hahaha! => "But, since most fans of opposing teams just like to point at turnover numbers, I'll give them a few more numbers to point at since they'll be too busy eating boogers to do the research for themselves."

 

That is a well-crafted line. This could get him in the running for a Pulitzer.

[fergie's ire]

When he did the quarterback draft with Mina Kimes, Nate Tice made a comment about some of Josh Allen's turnovers make him crazy for a few seconds and he thinks "why would you even attempt that throw," but then when he thinks about it he realizes, "Oh yeah, I've seen him complete that pass like six times in a row."  (Btw, both he and Kimes said they had Allen as the clear number 2 QB in the league.) So, part of the issue is what other sports might call usage rate.  Allen is involved in so many of the plays that, of course, he is going to have more turnovers.  However, the other issue is that he attempts throws nobody else should because he completes passes nobody else can on the regular.

[Sweats]

Honestly, i'd rather have JA lob the ball down the field on a 50/50 throw instead of punting.

[mushypeaches]

I’ve never enjoyed watching a QB play as much as I  enjoy watching  Josh Allen.  It’s electrifying every single drop back when I’m inevitably yelling “Rip it!” 
 

And then he does - and it’s like “holy dog balls”

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

I saw this article from noted Josh Allen defender (though not a Bills fan, per se) Jarrett Bailey. Thought it was fun enough to share, and what the hell, it's the slow part of the offseason, so...enjoy!


https://atozsports.com/buffalo/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-turnovers/

 

The laziest argument in sports today is the one that Josh Allen naysayers make when they say "but... but... the turnovers."

Yes, the Buffalo Bills' alien cyborg was second in the NFL in interceptions in 2023. However, when you look at interception percentage, he wasn't throwing much more interceptions per attempt than many other quarterbacks who many media members drool over because of their underneath passing efficiency. 

Allen threw an interception roughly every 32 attempts in 2023. For comparison, Tua Tagovailoa threw an interception every 40 attempts and was fourth in the NFL in picks. Brock Purdy hovered around the same number of interceptions per attempt. 

But, since most fans of opposing teams just like to point at turnover numbers, I'll give them a few more numbers to point at since they'll be too busy eating boogers to do the research for themselves. 

 

Since 2020 (including playoffs), Josh Allen has three seasons in the top 20 of all quarterbacks in that span in terms of touchdown passes. Patrick Mahomes is the only other quarterback with three seasons in the top 20. How about yards since 2020? Allen also has three seasons in the top 20 of passing yards since 2020. Only Mahomes has more with four.

Allen's 137 touchdown passes are the second most in that span only to Mahomes. His 36 rushing touchdowns are second amongst quarterbacks with only Jalen Hurts having more. And his 174 total touchdowns in the last four seasons are the most in the NFL.

 

What about game-changing plays? Well, if you look at PFF's big time throws, Allen led the NFL in that category in both 2023 and 2022. He finished second in 2021 and fifth in 2020- he is the only quarterback in the NFL to finish in the top five in big time throws in each of the last four seasons.

Even when Allen is under pressure, he's still amazing. He has two seasons that are in the top 10 in terms of passing yards per game under pressure- Justin Herbert is the only other quarterback with two such seasons. He also has two of the 10 best seasons in terms of touchdown percentage against pressure. The only other quarterback who can say that is Russell Wilson. And while throwing past the sticks against pressure, he has two of the three best seasons in the last four years of any quarterback with at least 100 attempts against pressure.

 

So the next time someone says something about Josh Allen and his turnovers, show them these numbers. Because it's evident they don't dig any deeper to see that there has been precisely zero quarterbacks doing what he's been doing over the last half-decade. And every argument against him is the same argument because there is nothing else Allen haters can point to. 

It's lazy. So. Damn. Lazy.

Is Allen perfect? No. But he's a hell of a lot closer to it than just about every other quarterback in recent memory. And odds are if you are reading this and you aren't a Bills fan, your favorite team's general manager would trade their first born child if it meant having Allen as his quarterback. 

 

 

 

It's not lazy.

 

And you're spinning like crazy.

 

Yes, if you go to other stats, Josh is crazy good. Overall, that's what he is, he's crazy good. Game-changing plays, whatever. He's fantastic.

 

But that doesn't mean he didn't have too many INTs the last year or two. Most particularly last year.

 

You don't want to have an INT % much over 2.0. Josh last year had a 3.1%. Way too high. Third-highest percentage in the league. Yes, a few others were too high also. But that doesn't make Josh being even higher than the guys you mentioned any more acceptable.

 

Josh was 3.1%. Much too high. Tua was 2.5%. Purdy too. Still too high, but not nearly as bad. Mahomes was 2.3%, still a bit high, but awful.

 

It was a problem. Josh admits it.

[smward8]

I'm curious to know what Favre's numbers were.  

Also, the Bills are rarely out of close games with Allen playing.  With Diggs gone, it's going to be interesting to see if he looks to get short first downs instead of some of the longer throws.  As has been pointed out - endlessly - I think he made more underneath passes to Kincaid and Shaking later in the season.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

3 hours ago, Malazan said:

 

Finally, someone who has the courage to talk about it.

 

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, H2o said:

This was my post from from another thread earlier this year. Mahomes and Allen are #1 & #2 in the NFL right now.

 

The people who constantly talk about the turnovers have an ax to grind. Either due to their "evaluation" of his talent prior to the draft or they still hold a grudge for the things that came out prior to the draft. Things that he tweeted or whatever. People can say it's not until they're blue in the face, but I don't believe them. It's blatantly obvious with some. 

 

The only game this year you can say the turnovers cost them the game, imo, the first Jets game. Three of the L's we had last year, all three of those games Josh had at least 1 turnover in, Josh also handed his team a lead with less than 2 minutes to go and the defense screwed the pooch.

 

 

Are you talking about....dare I say it....arm punts? 

You forgot the Broncos game where we could not get to halftime without turning it over multiple times lol